Petem95

Every bit of economic data seems to be major doom and gloom at the moment - looks like things could get a bit nasty....

- Confidence in housing market slidding, prices continue to fall
- Manufacturing output plummeting
- Personal insolvancies at highest levels for years
- High-street spending at lowest levels for years

Article - "The Economy is going backwards not forwards"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/s...479351,00.html

Article - "Homebuyers confidence dives"
http://money.guardian.co.uk/news_/st...479849,00.html

Article - "Manufacturing Ouput plummets"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/s...479796,00.html

Article - "Its bad and getting worse"
http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/money/...08/ixcoms.html

NOT good!!!

OllyK

And this is a surprise to who exactly?

TelBoy

Labour were very, very lucky. Said it before, say it again.

OllyK

Very well timed GE. If they had scheduled it for Autumn it may have been a different story. We'll just have to wait and see.

Here's hoping TB stands down shortly, Labour loose a couple of seats in some by-elections and as soon as GB becomes PM there is a vote of no-confidence followed up by another GE.

Leslie

With the constant borrowing by the Exchequer to support expensive NL policies such as the vast increase in bureaucratic organisations to administer the "target" mentality which does nothing but cause grossly inefficient actions in the public services, and also the excessive borrowing by so many of the people because of artificially low interest rates, it seems inescapable that there will be a recession before long.

As was said, they have been very lucky to get away with the election.

Les

Vegescoob

Yes, but it will soon be a plunge.
No sorry I forgot, "NO MORE BOOM AND BUST".
If I keep repeating this..........
TelBoy will tell you though, if you're good you can make on falls too.
Bad rumours about US Hedge Funds though!

sti-04!!

<sits on the fence with a barrier awaiting the crash>

I feel its long overdue

This country is about to hit an economic meltdown

Disgrace

Flatcapdriver

Who knows what will happen? We've had bad sets of economic data before which the teflon economy has withstood but my gut feeling says things are about to go pear shaped so we'll have to see if the electorate make the same decision they did in '97 albeit with the roles reversed.

the moose

God, you're all desperate for a recession, just so you can point the finger. Labour have had some luck, both good and bad, as has virtually every government since the beginning of time.

The typical SN comment seems to be that anything good which was happened was the result of the Tories having created a wonderful panacea for Labour to inherit, or that it was luck. Clearly anything bad that happened was all the fault, personally, of Tony Blair (aka The Devil), who can also be blamed for the unemployment and recession we suffered under the previous Conservative government.

Looked at objectively (I know, it's difficult for some of you), the Chancellor has delivered what he said he would. Every quarter/half/year, the various bodies declare that he won't meet his targets ...... and they've been wrong for a long time.

I'm not blind - this government has its faults, as do they all - but I'm sick to the back teeth of the Tory sniping. It's as if they performed stupendously in these elections, when the reality is that even with a weakened PM they still failed to make much of an impact.

DBY

Oh Yes

TelBoy

What i think we're saying, moose, is that the majority of Labour supporters don't have the first clue about the impending imbalances now unravelling in the UK economy. Neither do they care, unless it's a headline on page one of The Sun. That a government can be re-elected under such auspices saddens me, that's all.

Vegescoob

the moose

My view is not from a political standpoint just an examination of indicators and the lessons of history.
If everything does carry on as recently then the current Government will have shown the rest of the World how to run an economy and we can expect others to copy.
However, can you explain to me how, basically basing an economy on asset price inflation without corresponding wage inflation and increasing public sector employment funded by taxation is sustainable long term?

Flatcapdriver

I agree with you that there will be a fair amount of schadenfraude (?) if the economy does take a downturn and as you say, there is an element of luck both ways as to how things have panned out over the last few years but...

Whilst Brown has done an excellent job of keeping the economy on an upward path, you have to admit that the Tories had laid the foundations for this to happen because after Sterling's exit from the ERM and as a result of the market reforms put in place during Thatcher's years we were already seeing an economy that was out of recession and showing strong growth.

Labour could have ballsed it up and have made some very good decisions but with pensions and the balance of payments, they have to hold their hands up to some incompetence. I'm also not happy with the way inflation is measures which in my opinion is a total con and has helped Brown's figures somewhat. I do feel a bit sorry for him because if there is a downturn, then he's going to inherit an economy in a poor state when he was largely responsible for Labour's mostly good handling of the economy over the last seven years.

Freak

sadly yes

pslewis

16% Interest Rates - EXCELLENT

20% Inflation - EXCELLENT

Can't wait myself .... the Tory supporters should be happy, as it will remind them of the last Tory Government!!

I just hope the house prices crash .... lots of people have been really stupid and every 15 years or so there needs to be a big correction, is it now?

Pete

angrynorth

Wait. You calling people stupid? Now there is a novelty.

Get back to your commode, biddy, where your outbursts will at least be confined to a bucket rather than this web forum where we all have to deal with them.

pslewis

If that cap fits you, then you decide!!

People who have piled onto the house buying frenzy over the last 2 years have had warnings ...... if they ignored then, well .....

Pete

Vegescoob

I can remember the IMF having to "help out" a previous Labour Government.
So after an house price crash, what, as they say, "takes up the slack"?

SD

The thing is that there's no more money to prop up the economy. People have re-mortgaged themselves to the hilt, national debt is beyond £1 trillion, and inevitable tax rises are on the way. Of course there will be a down-turn. The economy ebbs and flows - just look at historic data to see the waves of good and bad. It seems we're over a peak now and the rest is down hill for a while...

Simon.

angrynorth

Your ignorance fails to realise the people who have had no choice but to move during the "house buying frenzy" as you call it.

Almost 12000 posts and not one modicum of sense.

pslewis

11,196 = Nearly 12,000 does it??

I hope you are not in charge of your own money with maths like that!!

Like I said, you realised the cap would fit you .........

Pete

bumper

Would he of met his own targets if he had not changed the way that the calculations were made? I doubt it very much.

This governement has survived on smoke and mirrors for a long time. David Blaine et al could learn a lot from N L.

the moose

No, this is PwC (for one) who run the same models of the economy as does the government. Using true life-for-like comparators, they predicted lower growth, greater inflation, and overall a worse position than was actually delivered.

I'm not saying for an instant that everyhing is rosy, but look at it this way: the reason that people are mortgaged up to the hilt is because interest rates are so low. Can you blame the government for that? If rates were high, you'd blame them for that too.

bumper

I and many others, would rather see high interest rates than high house prices. With high rates more people benefit. High house prices only benefit those which already own property. The generation that is left behind are suposed to do what exactly? Average house price is £180,000 at four times earnings it means you have to be on £45,000 a year. Some middle class dual income families struggle to bring that in.
The disparity felt by those at the bottom is worse now than it was under the conservatives. Wages are not in line with property. It is no good having people to do the work but not pay them enough to have a home. Wage inflation needs to increase.

OllyK

You're living in the wrong part of the country!
http://www.nethouseprices.com/index....ch_id=12191662

bumper

Look house sales down a third
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4529957.stm

Leslie

It is true though that there was a world recession during the last Conservative government and that can't be blamed on them. Very difficult to cope with that situation until it goes away. They did leave the economic situation such that it was ready to improve and that was where NL profited.The recession went away and they did nothing further except to give control of the Bank Rate to the Bank of England and borrow money as well to finance their enormous spending as well as increasing tax wherever they could.

Since then, with low interest rates, most people have borrowed enormous amounts of money which has made the economy look artificially good, but it all has to be paid back and when interest rates go up there will be some dreadful problems. The Exchequer is in the same position too.

Les

^Qwerty^

My wife works in a bank, she tells me that the loan and mortgage market has started to dry up. No suprise there then. Obviouslly high street sales and new car sales will follow........

Recession it is then

Buckrogers

Not forgetting the NL "windfall" of £22.5 billion for the 3g "bits of paper"