the shreksta

iTrader: (20)

what are peoples thoughts on this?

loads of scare mongering going on at the minute, i know certain sectors are struggling but i feel when lockdown ends and shops re-open i think there will so much spending going on i dont think there will be a recession at all. the company i work for and the product we supply has gone ballistic since this time last year with no signs of slowing down at all.

BMWhere?

Its difficult to say! Historically, post pandemic usually results in a boom - after the Spanish flu they had the roaring 20's.

However, thanks to the economic restrictions put on Germany after WWI, the 20's in Germany saw only Hyperinflation and laid the foundations for the rise of the ****'s.

The post Brexit export controls could somewhat stifle post pandemic growth in the UK and with import restrictions delayed until the end of the year, when they hit in 2022 we may well see supply shortages and inflationary pressure.

The World will certainly see a post-pandemic boom, whether post-Brexit Britain will be joining the party I'm a little less sure. It may not be recession, although the economy has already massively contracted, but I doubt there will be a huge and sustained boom in the UK.

RobsyUK

iTrader: (2)

We were talking about this yesterday and probably.

My household has spent more over the last year being locked down them the years before with holidays and days out.

Someone needs tneedy for the furlough scheme.

ALi-B

iTrader: (1)

For a very long time the UK has ran a Boom-Bust economy.

Politicians will harp on about preventing it but overall it's like holding back the tide.

What is difficult to ascertain is the shift in various sectors. For example high street retail has been in recession for a long time (starting in the period of out of town shopping centres and local towns/cities not addressing congestion and/or restricting car use). But throughout all of this, online retail has boomed and boomed.

Up until Covid new car registrations remain consistently high (albeit glitched by politicians quacking about diesels), but car assembly plants close and their associated parts producers struggle. Along with parts retail, where there remains a lot of take-overs and asset stripping.

The financial sectors remain strong. But mortgage, loan and credit interests are stubbornly high, likewise interests on savings and high street bank Bonds/ISAs etc continue to give poor returns that struggle to cover inflation.

House building is as high as ever, and yet there is still a struggle to afford them.

My personal take is from the one side of my family that build houses at a medium/low volume rate of production. For as long as I've known they aim build at the same rate as they sell and sell the property before the internal first fix stage and second fix at the latest so things like power outlet locations and bathroom/kitchen designs can be selected by the buyer. Every time we had a recession looming is when the house sales slowed and did not sell before they are completed. It happened in the 70's,90's and 2000's....And I could probably dig up a post on here in 2005/2006 saying things were not right as whilst we had buyers signing up mortgage lenders were repeatedly causing sales chains to collapse, so even before the 2008 crash happened we were we ending up with unsold houses. Similar happened in the 90's.

The pandemic has mixed thing up along with Brexit. But as far as I can tell houses are selling; I sold my house with no issues during the Brexit transition period. My mum just sold hers during the pandemic and despite having 20yr old decor is now the most expensive house in the street.

So if property chains stay strong, it generally means mortgage lenders are playing ball (despite the stubborn interest), which follows that the financial sector also remains ok. But we have to be careful...if they can tell porkies about toxic debts and then sell them to competitors, we cannot be 100% sure something similar cannot happen again.

BMWhere?

The big problem in the UK is that it has a debt driven growth focused economy. Companies are encouraged to take on debt in order to fund investments and growth. The public are encouraged to take on debt to spend what they don't have and stimulate growth. The banks are the ones holding all that debt and are exposed to a lot of risk, so any small shakes in the global economy and banks get nervous, withhold or withdraw credit and the market collapses. Any economy which carries so much debt will always be susceptible to book and bust.

The UK and many other debt driven economies could learn a lot from the German Mittelstand. It's the backbone of the German economy and made up of privately owned small and medium sized companies which hold little or no debt, usually have a healthy bank balance and they don't pursue growth bet rather stability. Come rain, wind or shine, they just plod along and are largely immune to the boom and bust economics. Sure Germany will feel the effects of a global downturn, particularly in the auto industry, but thanks to the stability of the Mittelstand, the Germany economy bounces back very quickly.

stevebt

iTrader: (8)

No worse than any other time we are pushed to recession. If any thing its better this time as the government has paid multiple billions so people won't loose out. meaning in a normal recession we would loose our jobs and have years of worry but this time the government has supported the whole country meaning people who would normally be unemployed are furloughed.

this means people haven't lost jobs and are still spending. there isn't many people who haven't lost out so I would say we are ok?

IdonthaveaScooby

What happens at the end of furlough though


not going to be an issue if youre a well heeled brexit busting multi national start up of course ......

ALi-B

iTrader: (1)

Probably worth pointing out that whilst we're umming and ahhing over our government's handling of the economy and lauding that of Germany....China has been slashing taxes left right and centre on the scale of trillions upon trillions in order stabilise its business economy, slashing taxes even further after the pandemic hit.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-funding-woes

Good, bad? You decide. Our fingers are in the pie, but at the same time that pie is scalding hot.

We know what damage to world industries has occurred when China under cuts them. We also know that we've allowed them to invest in our own countries. If they get caught short they'll take us with them and we no longer have our own home industries to fall back on.

So last big recession started in the USA and took us down with it. The next big one may come via China....

The Joshua Tree

I'm amazed the housing market is still strong as people are losing their jobs all over the country, companies are going bust, people have spent a fortune, mostly on credit which has to be paid back. Also when furlough ends the companies have to pay the money back so that will put operating pressure on them as furlough as added debt to a lot of companies, money doesn't grow on trees so to speak, it has to come from somewhere and it has to come from somewhere to pay back the debts so you'd think the average person would be tightening their belts, not spending especially on luxury items.

BMWhere?

Many people working from home have still been receiving the same income but no longer having to fork out for travel costs, eating more cheaply at home and virtually no social costs. While quite a few people are hard up during Covid, many people have been saving a fortune. Its these people who are feeling somewhat flush that are now propping up the housing market. It could all crash very soon though as the effects of Brexit start to hit bringing more job losses and uncertainty in the market.

ALi-B

iTrader: (1)

There has been a growing city exodus to more rural parts of the UK amongst the better-off middle classes. It was already well underway due to London house prices where the price of a flat is comparable to a plush 5 bedroom house full of ensuites in the Lincolnshire countryside. But the pandemic has seen this phenomenon become a greater surge as folk realise they don't need to travel to work as often (London already only had 4 "proper" working days; Day 5 is Friday which is mostly spent queuing in traffic on the M25 or in an overcrowded train and returning on Monday or Tuesday ).

Similar has happened with other major cities, like Birmingham where after a "inner city living" boom folk have realised its not all it's cracked up to be (Like trying to ban cars whilst still providing rubbish local public transport; Only in the UK ) and the suburbs provide poor value for money when compared to a "doer upper" further out in the sticks.

Any town or village near a mainline train route or with good access to one is being invaded. It's even started happening in towns and villages near proposed HS2 stops as they are potentially lucrative investments in the long term.

Never ceases to amaze me that something made from a pile of clay, sand, cement and wood fetches such a high value in this country. The skill and material value in building is very low, albeit doing it well/properly is another matter; I'd say 95% of UK homes will have material or constructional defects causing high energy consumption and damp.

NOSSY_89

Difference this time is the banks are still lending.



A lot of property development around the city centre, it seems the area has just expanded. A lot of Londoners seem to be moving to the west midlands now. They sold up shop down south and have some serious equity. You do pay a premium in Brum for everything on your doorstep. There is just so much choice. It all comes down to if you can live without that Big City vibe. I have days where I just want to move away and days where I appreciate all the convenience.

For anyone thinking about moving to Brum, its expensive, housing and cost of living now.

ALi-B

iTrader: (1)

Tell me about it; I think Solihull has become yet another suburb of London.

Wurzel

iTrader: (1)

I couldn't move to The Midlands the accent would drive me nuts, not sure what is worse, Midlands, Scouse or nails on a blackboard

NOSSY_89

Lol, I'll have you know we have many different accents in the Midlands.

Wurzel

iTrader: (1)

You say that but to us you all sound like Barry of Auf Wiedersehen Pet. Even my mate from Penkridge makes me cringe, not to mention his mates from Wolverhampton.

ALi-B

iTrader: (1)

Yam Yam?

Wurzel, a lot of Brummagum dialect is now urban British English.


As an aside; If you're wondering what that is, one example is the BT internet advert with pixelated Paula...being asked "Can you go on Moo".

NOSSY_89

loooooooooooooooool thats black country . So many people think thats a Brummie accent. But if you're from Brum you can pinpoint the accent to specific areas so can often tell if someone is from a different area within Brum.

NOSSY_89

If anyone is wondering what Yam Yam is it is derived from "How am ya?" meaning "How are you?"

ALi-B

iTrader: (1)

We tend to say "Ow bin ya" round here; I'm of chain mekkin' heritage, now living in the nail making regions. My mum started out as a switchboard operator and I had Worcestershire based teachers so that's resulted in me having a hybrid accent and mild use of dialect.

Don't tell those saft wokes that my ancestors were once know as the white slaves of England. Yet you won't see me pulling down statues (Although Pegasus the blingy 'oss probably should be pulled down ).

NOSSY_89

Always figured you were deep south lol. Didin't realise you were one of the west midland lads.

Last recession we were hit hard and I think a lot of that was spite. People talking about how Manchester should be Second City and investment being moved to away from the Midlands. Then all of a sudden companies were realising the Midlands is just that, middle of the country and the next biggest city lol so investment started coming back. And you know what that means, investment attracts more investment.