f1_fan

iTrader: (9)

Anyone think that we, the rest of Europe and the US can do anything to avoid sliding back into recession?

Every bit of economic data coming out of Europe and the US in the last few months has shown that a recession is potentially looming.

The markets have tanked again in the last couple of days as confidence in the US and European governments desire to actually do something about their economies rather than just talk about it ebbs away.

Time for some action on growth I think as otherwise we and the rest of Europe and the US are looking at Recession 2. Anyone feel like trying to point this out to the likes of Obama and Cameron as they seem to be blissfullly unawares... maybe we need a riot as they seem to take little notice of anything else!

Gear Head

iTrader: (2)

What do you suggest they do?

alloy

The reason all they are doing is talking is because they have no firepower left....recession is pretty much a certainty, the only thing to delay that is more QE but at the end of the day asset purchasing is just like p1ssing in the wind as it racks up more debt, ramps inflation, and when the next tranche concludes we still find ourselves at the same junction we are now.

Time to get a shotgun, tins of beans and find yourself a nice bunker....

f1_fan

iTrader: (9)

Yep, that's pretty much how I see it. Thing is when I mooted this would probably happen 9 months ago everyone on here laughed at me. It's not that I want to be right, but if governments stick their heads in the sand for 12 months what do they really expect to find when they finally take a look.

It has taken the US's credit rating being downgraded to even make them appreciate that they might have a genuine problem.

I think about 12 months back if the US and European governments had taken a finer tooth comb to how much to cut and over what time frame to reduce their debt while balancing the need to put money into schemes that will geneunely promote growth we may have stood a chance. Also not doing things like wasting money on phoney wars would have been a good idea too.

Trouble is now it is obviously too late and we are all f**ked again!

davyboy

Probably for entirely different reasons

I work for a global company with US headquarters, and all staff are about to get record bonuses due to record sales.

The last time this happened we were taking a 10% pay cut a few months later!

The growth in Asia is incredible.

billythekid

I think it depends which sector you look at.

Every time I have been to the shops recently its been packed. Be it tescos or the local "mall". I know certain businesses who are busier than ever, my friend runs a small internet clothing store and he is turning over stupid money at the moment. Same for a photographer I know, he is booked up for literally years ahead.

But some others, they are currently dead in the water. I know a landscaper who usually does 3 or 4 jobs a week, he was telling me the other day he is down to 3 or 4 jobs a month! He goes for days on end without his phone ringing. Another mate sells cars, and he said its very bad at the moment. Another mate of mine has just had to take a night shift job as his self employed day job is so quiet (construction).

So I think it depends how you look at it. People have money, but they seem to be spending on certain things and not on others.

Simon K

Mate of mine is a landscape garden, down in Sussex. Met up with him last night for an orange juice / lemonade ( Mr Excitement eh :-) ), and he told me he has so much work its amazing !! He's just taken on another chap to cover all the work.

SBK

stilover

I'm in Construction.

Someone just been laid off today. The axe may fall more heavily if we don't secure a few contracts soon. Very soon.

brendy76

iTrader: (6)

One of the group companies I work for is doing a roaring trade in digger buckets and track systems, someone somewhere in the world is still building.

f1_fan

iTrader: (9)

While we all may know individuals who are doing well and not so well the overall economic outlook from all the figures published by the EU and US is gloomy at best and remember these figures are often compiled by government bodies who are trying to make things look rosier than they are.... and in response to all that the markets are tanking.... the markets reflect the long term outlook and many analysts now think a further recession is inevitable.... the question I guess is how bad will it be?

alloy

The impact of the dip into recession is centred around the banking system...if we can get Eurobonds passed, level out the uncertainty and allow banks to continue their business without huge liquidity restrictions then the money cycle can contiue and we have a chance. If the euro dominos do start properly falling then 2008 will look like a walk in the park in comparison.

Some school of thought (Gann) suggests that if the theory is right the S&P500 index goes to 300 over the next 18/24 months......thats a further 70% down in equities!

Simon K

Alloy - Forgive the stupid questions. What's S&P500 ?? Top selling 500 companies ?? Explain your last parapgraph, in simple language, as me thick :-)

SBK

f1_fan

iTrader: (9)

Given the disparities in the Eurozone economies how likely is this to happen though?

alloy

Top 500 companies in America, S&P is largely seen as a barometer of global economic health. Gann theory compares the movements of the markets historically as a predictive tool for future movement on the premis that history repeats itself. So comparing the 1930's crash to recent times leads you to a target of 300, down 70% from where it closed yesterday.

FlightMan

WE NEVER CAME OUT OF RECESSION. THE CENTRAL BANKS USED QE TO ENGINEER A 'RECOVERY'. NOW THE MONEY HAS RUN OUT. WE'RE IN A DEPRESSION. OUR WEALTH IS BEING ERODED BY INFLATION.

Tidgy

have to say depends on sector and market palce (as on if uk only or world wide). I work for a bit consulting firm, everything to do with designing, from architecture through to designing the wings of aeroplanes, some sectors of the company are very quiet, others are trying to find staff like its going out of fassion, several very very large contracts form the middle east have landed (talking in billions here not few hundred grand).

I have to wonder that all the drop in values, is it actualy a bad thing? have things been overvalued for way too long?

alloy

Slim, there are mumblings from Oli Rehn, but Merkel and Sarkozy aren't going to be enthusiastic about it, also a new development is that EU member states are requiring collateral to bail out greece, so their next tranche of money could still collapse...

Far too much international political posturing IMO, the world is so transparent and free with regard to trade, we are all doomed if internationally we can not solve/stem this situation.

Rumour today of emergency US Fed meeting being called....

EddScott

I appreciate you don't have a crystal ball but what's your gut feeling on say the next 6 to 12 months?

I do some fund management where I work (Unit trusts, OEICs, ETFs etc) and although we've seen falls they aren't really "that" bad with at worst just under a 5% reduction in the same portfolio valuation since the last valuation (around May time)

I go for safer sectors/funds as a core and then take on riskier funds according to the appetite of the client. I try and keep them as diversified as possible without watering down the investment into each fund.

We've had a few calls over the last couple of weeks and sent out a couple of calming emails. We've had a couple of fund management firms on conference call telling us to sit tight - although I wonder how much of what they tell us is biased.

alloy

6-12 months....no idea....so many if/but scenarios to price a future value. My niche is 2min-2weeks....in this market that still is very subjective!

"keep carm and carry on"- a great mantra

Chip

The gardening sector has always had plenty of growth

Chip

Chip

JTaylor

EddScott

Oh, OK.

If the is dig for mentioning the calming email to our clients, they need some reassurance that we are watching whats going on closely and advising them the best we can (or at least the advisers are) They watch the TV and read the papers which are full of savings and pensions whistling down the toilet and are naturally concerned.

To keep quiet or tell them to cash in their chips and run for the hills wouldn't go down too well with the regulators

alloy

Wasn't a dig, i find with my investors if they get jittery just tell them the truth we haven't had any redemptions, but my monthly investor letters are very much point of fact

EddScott

Apologies. We wouldn't consider hiding things or dressing things up to stop them throwing wobblies and taking the money elsewhere. Most of them can see thier position online so it's not like we can really hide it.

The conversation I've had with clients is more to make sure they feel as happy as they can be about their portfolio and that we are actively looking after them.

Good luck

Leslie

Can't expect much else really when the government overborrows for years and having managed to screw a strong economy after two years and then continues to overborrow in order to buy votes then sooner or later the interest charges on those bonds won't be covered by the GDP.

How they could just keep spending our cash without even considering the enormous national debt they were building up takes a bit of believing. It is surely too obvious that spending outside one's income can only lead to disaster. There is not even any way they can push the blame for it onto the following government.

Looks like too many other of the world's governments were at it too-but what is the solution now I wonder...I can guess easily enough, and it is not very good.

Les

GlesgaKiss

There was never an end to the consumption bubble, it was merely prolonged.

It's not a cyclical problem, it's structural. So they can keep kidding themselves all they want, but this is not going to just 'get better' without being faced up to. They can p*ss about with stimulus but none of it really makes any difference.

Number one problem now is we aren't even sticking to the rules of capitalism, because everything's 'too big to fail'. What a load of sh*te.

Let's just get it over with and move on. It's never going to be as bad as the doom mongers would have you believe.

PaulC72

Not to worry this time next year we will all be trading in Yuan's

Leslie

Its the only way.

Les