North Africa/Middle East whats going to happen ?
24 February 2011, 11:27 AM
#1
North Africa/Middle East whats going to happen ?
Whats going to happen in the region, Egypt, Bahrain, Libya and all the unrest there, coupled with the fact that every other country is jostling and posturing most of the time, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Palestine etc. Afganistan and Pakistan get a mention, it would be better to list the countries int he region that arent in some kind of turmoil.
I dont profess to understand it all but any ideas how it will pan out over the next few years, will we be remembering Mubarak and Gadaffi fondly once the new regimes are in place ?
Why is that whole region such a mess or is that just an impression we are given by the media ?
I dont profess to understand it all but any ideas how it will pan out over the next few years, will we be remembering Mubarak and Gadaffi fondly once the new regimes are in place ?
Why is that whole region such a mess or is that just an impression we are given by the media ?
24 February 2011, 11:36 AM
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Ideally the dictators will be replaced by decent fair people who want what is best for the people of the country first and foremost, not religious extremists or more nutters. Things will settle down and trade and goodwill will become the norm
Real world, who knows...
Real world, who knows...
24 February 2011, 11:43 AM
#5
Ideally the dictators will be replaced by decent fair people who want what is best for the people of the country first and foremost, not religious extremists or more nutters. Things will settle down and trade and goodwill will become the norm
Real world, who knows...
Real world, who knows...
The worst case is some extremist Imams get in charge under Shiite rule. Things could be one hundred fold worse, as what they preach will be considered to be the word of god and they will be seen to do no wrong by their followers.
24 February 2011, 11:45 AM
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The middle East needs to trade oil to survive, the west needs oil to survive so there will always be a relationship...
24 February 2011, 12:01 PM
#7
Yes the middle east needs to trade, but not necessarily with the just the west. The East, namely China is the 2nd largest consumer of oil and demand is growing rapidly along with Japan and India. Starving the US of oil will surely bring the country down. If Osama were to bring down a country, he'd attack the source of what that country heavily relies on, middle eastern oil. Quite "easy" for Al Qaeda to setup cells in these countries to cause disruption. Now I'm not saying this is the case, but in theory this could be happening.
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24 February 2011, 12:10 PM
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Yes the middle east needs to trade, but not necessarily with the just the west. The East, namely China is the 2nd largest consumer of oil and demand is growing rapidly along with Japan and India. Starving the US of oil will surely bring the country down. If Osama were to bring down a country, he'd attack the source of what that country heavily relies on, middle eastern oil. Quite "easy" for Al Qaeda to setup cells in these countries to cause disruption. Now I'm not saying this is the case, but in theory this could be happening.
You really think china is the answer to the ME and oil sales, not really...
24 February 2011, 12:16 PM
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Depending on what you read, the USA have enough oil to be independent of the ME.
If they really wanted to, they could just stop importing oil from anywhere...
http://www.thepiratescove.us/2008/08...-how-much-oil/
If they really wanted to, they could just stop importing oil from anywhere...
http://www.thepiratescove.us/2008/08...-how-much-oil/
24 February 2011, 12:37 PM
#15
China, surely better the devil you know. China will present the same problems if not worse, China has a low opinion of other religions and killing of Muslims is not uncommon or a one-off. China is another country not shy of invading other countries to get what it wants and screw anyone who gets in the way.
You really think china is the answer to the ME and oil sales, not really...
You really think china is the answer to the ME and oil sales, not really...
24 February 2011, 12:48 PM
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China, surely better the devil you know. China will present the same problems if not worse, China has a low opinion of other religions and killing of Muslims is not uncommon or a one-off. China is another country not shy of invading other countries to get what it wants and screw anyone who gets in the way.
You really think china is the answer to the ME and oil sales, not really...
You really think china is the answer to the ME and oil sales, not really...
24 February 2011, 01:08 PM
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There may be a salutary lesson to be learnt from the African experience. Euphoria when colonial rule ended but look at the place now. Hardly a country without corruption and dieing kids (Ghana being a decent exception).
And vast oil reserves haven't helped the people of Nigeria and staggering corruption with a big C.
And with the ME you can add extremist religion, heavyweight weapons, WMDs and the odd nuke into the melting pot.
Doesn't look promising in the medium term. I expect China to call the shots in a decade or two.
On the other hand the break up of Russia's stranglehold in Europe went reasonably peacefully so heads or tails?
dl
And vast oil reserves haven't helped the people of Nigeria and staggering corruption with a big C.
And with the ME you can add extremist religion, heavyweight weapons, WMDs and the odd nuke into the melting pot.
Doesn't look promising in the medium term. I expect China to call the shots in a decade or two.
On the other hand the break up of Russia's stranglehold in Europe went reasonably peacefully so heads or tails?
dl
24 February 2011, 01:20 PM
#20
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@ David Lock
That's because it's anarchy. Any order there is, is totally inconsistent and the majority of the time unjust and nonsensical, imposed by a power-mad despot.
Sure, the British brought injustice at times, but the rule of law and the institutions were geared towards order. A common law that people could easily understand, etc.
In 1965 British people were, in terms of average income, 8 times better off than people in Sierra Leone. But today we are 200 times better off. It's the same for many other African countries. Part of that is obviously our growth, but it's also their loss. Things have clearly gone wrong there.
That's because it's anarchy. Any order there is, is totally inconsistent and the majority of the time unjust and nonsensical, imposed by a power-mad despot.
Sure, the British brought injustice at times, but the rule of law and the institutions were geared towards order. A common law that people could easily understand, etc.
In 1965 British people were, in terms of average income, 8 times better off than people in Sierra Leone. But today we are 200 times better off. It's the same for many other African countries. Part of that is obviously our growth, but it's also their loss. Things have clearly gone wrong there.
24 February 2011, 02:50 PM
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24 February 2011, 04:40 PM
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@ David Lock
That's because it's anarchy. Any order there is, is totally inconsistent and the majority of the time unjust and nonsensical, imposed by a power-mad despot.
Sure, the British brought injustice at times, but the rule of law and the institutions were geared towards order. A common law that people could easily understand, etc.
In 1965 British people were, in terms of average income, 8 times better off than people in Sierra Leone. But today we are 200 times better off. It's the same for many other African countries. Part of that is obviously our growth, but it's also their loss. Things have clearly gone wrong there.
That's because it's anarchy. Any order there is, is totally inconsistent and the majority of the time unjust and nonsensical, imposed by a power-mad despot.
Sure, the British brought injustice at times, but the rule of law and the institutions were geared towards order. A common law that people could easily understand, etc.
In 1965 British people were, in terms of average income, 8 times better off than people in Sierra Leone. But today we are 200 times better off. It's the same for many other African countries. Part of that is obviously our growth, but it's also their loss. Things have clearly gone wrong there.
25 February 2011, 03:56 PM
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Lets hope that they do not settle for more of the same, some democracy some fairness would be good
25 February 2011, 04:14 PM
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For anyone seriously interested in the subject I'd recommend Orientalism by Edward Said. There's a YouTube series if you'd prefer.
Last edited by JTaylor; 25 February 2011 at 04:15 PM.
25 February 2011, 04:17 PM
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You say that but even the ME has access to the internet and mobile phone technology, in a lot of cases the everyday people and especially the youngsters have an idea of what is going on around them, not just what they are told by state TV.
Lets hope that they do not settle for more of the same, some democracy some fairness would be good
Lets hope that they do not settle for more of the same, some democracy some fairness would be good
Les
25 February 2011, 05:25 PM
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