Panarama
Panarama
22 December 2008, 08:39 PM
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Will be very interesting - Im going to catch this on iplayer at a later date.
Like a number of others including yourself I was expecting a big financial bust (including massive house price crash), but I didn't expect things to get this bad - and worryingly things look set to get a lot worse before they get better.
I expected 30-40% house price falls, but derivatives markets are predicting 50%, and it looks like falls could be even sharper if we go into a depression.
My main worry now is social unrest. Already there have been riots in Greece, China, Russia - Uk will follow at some point as we haven't even seen the real job losses start yet. Exporting countries like China, Japan and Germany are going to be seriously screwed as well - exports from Japan fell something like 70% last month (as obviously nobody is buying in the usual markets)
I've recently traded down from a new-ish Audi to a 7year old VW Polo due the collapse in used car values (which also looks set to only get worse)
On the plus-side when things start to recover (IMO AT LEAST 5 years) then hopefully there will never be another debt-fueled boom like this again. I think it'll go back to - "you want to buy something, then you save up for it and buy it when you can afford it"
Like a number of others including yourself I was expecting a big financial bust (including massive house price crash), but I didn't expect things to get this bad - and worryingly things look set to get a lot worse before they get better.
I expected 30-40% house price falls, but derivatives markets are predicting 50%, and it looks like falls could be even sharper if we go into a depression.
My main worry now is social unrest. Already there have been riots in Greece, China, Russia - Uk will follow at some point as we haven't even seen the real job losses start yet. Exporting countries like China, Japan and Germany are going to be seriously screwed as well - exports from Japan fell something like 70% last month (as obviously nobody is buying in the usual markets)
I've recently traded down from a new-ish Audi to a 7year old VW Polo due the collapse in used car values (which also looks set to only get worse)
On the plus-side when things start to recover (IMO AT LEAST 5 years) then hopefully there will never be another debt-fueled boom like this again. I think it'll go back to - "you want to buy something, then you save up for it and buy it when you can afford it"
Last edited by Petem95; 22 December 2008 at 08:42 PM.
22 December 2008, 08:46 PM
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the end is nigh.
Personally I cannot see how we can get out of this downward spiral, it may level out but the way back up is no mean feat.
I don't profess to be a knowledgable as others on here but I think we are all agreed it is looking bleak.
Personally I cannot see how we can get out of this downward spiral, it may level out but the way back up is no mean feat.
I don't profess to be a knowledgable as others on here but I think we are all agreed it is looking bleak.
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22 December 2008, 09:34 PM
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didnt watch it as my tv has broke but seriously though how much worse can it get ,and what the hell happens when its a depression and theres millions out of work and only a hand full of job vacancies and the mortgage only gets paid for a year .
doomed i tell ye ,seriously though it is a scary thought and i thought it was bad without a tv
and its only been 3 and a half hours
doomed i tell ye ,seriously though it is a scary thought and i thought it was bad without a tv
and its only been 3 and a half hours
durr....
22 December 2008, 10:38 PM
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22 December 2008, 10:51 PM
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AFP: World faces "total" financial meltdown: Bank of Spain chief
These kinds of headlines don't even raise eyebrows now!
These kinds of headlines don't even raise eyebrows now!
23 December 2008, 10:18 AM
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23 December 2008, 10:34 AM
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This always makes me shudder:
You have all these savings and think you are well off, then boom, they are worthless!
Germany
Main article: Inflation in the Weimar Republic
Germany went through its worst inflation in 1923. In 1922, the highest denomination was 50,000 Mark. By 1923, the highest denomination was 100,000,000,000,000 Mark. In December 1923 the exchange rate was 4,200,000,000,000 Marks to 1 US dollar.[11] In 1923, the rate of inflation hit 3.25 × 106 percent per month (prices double every two days). Beginning on November 20, 1923, 1,000,000,000,000 old Marks were exchanged for 1 Rentenmark[11] so that 4.2 Rentenmarks were worth 1 US dollar, exactly the same rate the Mark had in 1914.
Main article: Inflation in the Weimar Republic
Germany went through its worst inflation in 1923. In 1922, the highest denomination was 50,000 Mark. By 1923, the highest denomination was 100,000,000,000,000 Mark. In December 1923 the exchange rate was 4,200,000,000,000 Marks to 1 US dollar.[11] In 1923, the rate of inflation hit 3.25 × 106 percent per month (prices double every two days). Beginning on November 20, 1923, 1,000,000,000,000 old Marks were exchanged for 1 Rentenmark[11] so that 4.2 Rentenmarks were worth 1 US dollar, exactly the same rate the Mark had in 1914.
23 December 2008, 10:35 AM
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Was that a financial programme or a biography of Robert Peston?
" uuuuuuuuurrrrrrrrrhhhhhhh i get up at 6.15 eeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrmmmmmmmmm, check a few wires aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, start my blog........."
FFS, WGAS?
" uuuuuuuuurrrrrrrrrhhhhhhh i get up at 6.15 eeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrmmmmmmmmm, check a few wires aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, start my blog........."
FFS, WGAS?
23 December 2008, 12:13 PM
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Will be very interesting - Im going to catch this on iplayer at a later date.
Like a number of others including yourself I was expecting a big financial bust (including massive house price crash), but I didn't expect things to get this bad - and worryingly things look set to get a lot worse before they get better.
I expected 30-40% house price falls, but derivatives markets are predicting 50%, and it looks like falls could be even sharper if we go into a depression.
My main worry now is social unrest. Already there have been riots in Greece, China, Russia - Uk will follow at some point as we haven't even seen the real job losses start yet. Exporting countries like China, Japan and Germany are going to be seriously screwed as well - exports from Japan fell something like 70% last month (as obviously nobody is buying in the usual markets)
I've recently traded down from a new-ish Audi to a 7year old VW Polo due the collapse in used car values (which also looks set to only get worse)
On the plus-side when things start to recover (IMO AT LEAST 5 years) then hopefully there will never be another debt-fueled boom like this again. I think it'll go back to - "you want to buy something, then you save up for it and buy it when you can afford it"
Like a number of others including yourself I was expecting a big financial bust (including massive house price crash), but I didn't expect things to get this bad - and worryingly things look set to get a lot worse before they get better.
I expected 30-40% house price falls, but derivatives markets are predicting 50%, and it looks like falls could be even sharper if we go into a depression.
My main worry now is social unrest. Already there have been riots in Greece, China, Russia - Uk will follow at some point as we haven't even seen the real job losses start yet. Exporting countries like China, Japan and Germany are going to be seriously screwed as well - exports from Japan fell something like 70% last month (as obviously nobody is buying in the usual markets)
I've recently traded down from a new-ish Audi to a 7year old VW Polo due the collapse in used car values (which also looks set to only get worse)
On the plus-side when things start to recover (IMO AT LEAST 5 years) then hopefully there will never be another debt-fueled boom like this again. I think it'll go back to - "you want to buy something, then you save up for it and buy it when you can afford it"
I think this recession/depression will actually lead to life changing dramatically for everyone. Not sure how, but it will be a hell of a bumpy ride.
23 December 2008, 12:48 PM
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I agree. It's funny how we've come to expect the foreign holidays, new(ish) cars, big TV's, meals out etc etc.
There isn't a rule book somewhere that says that's how things have to be. And if there was, I suspect it's being torn up as we speak.
I'm hearing rumours that the Madoff scam is the tip of the iceberg. And if true that has dire consequences for us all.
23 December 2008, 12:55 PM
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I believe that there will be more scams and dishonest behaviour being blown open next year.
Pension Funds will be hardest hit IMO - firms charge ££££Millions to 'manage' these schemes ....... and manage them badly from what I can see!
Hopefully, we have seen the end of the Fat Cats!! .... but, somehow, I doubt it.
Pension Funds will be hardest hit IMO - firms charge ££££Millions to 'manage' these schemes ....... and manage them badly from what I can see!
Hopefully, we have seen the end of the Fat Cats!! .... but, somehow, I doubt it.
23 December 2008, 02:28 PM
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I believe that there will be more scams and dishonest behaviour being blown open next year.
Pension Funds will be hardest hit IMO - firms charge ££££Millions to 'manage' these schemes ....... and manage them badly from what I can see!
Hopefully, we have seen the end of the Fat Cats!! .... but, somehow, I doubt it.
Pension Funds will be hardest hit IMO - firms charge ££££Millions to 'manage' these schemes ....... and manage them badly from what I can see!
Hopefully, we have seen the end of the Fat Cats!! .... but, somehow, I doubt it.
23 December 2008, 06:45 PM
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I guess we've become used to being massive consumers - buying up cheap manufactured goods from developing countries where people work for a dollar a day, and borrowing money like there's no tomorrow.
IMO this deep recession/depression will last 5-10years (we're probably 18months in tho I guess), but when we come out the other side the world will be a much less stable place, and we may even see full-scale wars, the likes which have not been seen since WW2. Everyone in the world wants to live the Western lifestyle now, but that just cant happen. Scary times
23 December 2008, 06:55 PM
#25
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it will all be back to normal in 5 or so years
another bunch of muppets will need to make money -- the past will all be forgotton -- or we will here phrases like "no its different this time, this way is much much better" -- in any case, too much money at stake for it to pan out any other way
mark my words
another bunch of muppets will need to make money -- the past will all be forgotton -- or we will here phrases like "no its different this time, this way is much much better" -- in any case, too much money at stake for it to pan out any other way
mark my words
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