Kevin Groat

Looks like I may be getting relocated to Aberdeen later this year, one option is to buy property in Aberdeen - I know the Aberdeen housing market and the oil industry pretty well but can't help thinking if I bought this year I may be getting in at the peak with a slump around the corner. Any of our Aberdeen based owners have any thoughts on this ?

p.s. Looks like I'll be at the monthly meets pretty soon.

LG John

Shame you can't lose the 'r' from your name....then you'd fit right in up there

IMO property in a city like Aberdeen should be fairly steady despite the scaremongering. It might not go up much more but I can't see it plummeting unless the country as a whole was to hit major recession. Just my fairly un-educated opinion

Crush

Prices tend to follow the trends set in London. Edinburgh is something like the 2nd most expensive place after London. So If prices in London fall, so will Edinburgh, so small drops/rises might be seen that far up north. (maybe )

LG John

[breif hijack]

Crush, what was the end of your old cars reggy? AJ and I just saw an M-reg peppermint wagon parked up near Lothian Road

[/brief hijack]

Resume normal thread discussion

Miles

Oil is supposed to be around for another 20 years. Which has to be a good thing.

Crush

xsg I'd be surprised if that thing survives a winter

LG John

The one we saw was M***TSH....<yoda voice> Another, there is </yoda voice>

pob on the job

Some people might remember the slump a few years ago when the oil price hit rock bottom. During this time, property values actually jumped, moreso in the mid/high price range. Apparently this was due to the amount of cash splashed out by the oil majors in redundancies. People semi retiring with 100k plus as a pay off were buying up guest houses or flats to rent out. The likes of guest houses in great western road were fetching 40k+ over valuation/ asking price, fact.

Si James

Check out the expected oil and gas production forecasts from the DTi mate. In 10 years time Aberdeen will heading towards the South Wales syndrome.

Just think, the oil will now be in serious decline, and the fishing industry too.

If you do decide to buy, buy in a top area, the best part of the West End, or Hill of Rubislaw.


Si

riley

I myself have just bought a house in cove and the prices there are steadily rising. first house i put an offer in for offered 10k more than asking and it was the LOWEST bid.
Good luck in the house hunting if you do move up

Si James

Prices are very buoyant at present, that is true.

Si

Kevin Groat

Thanks for the replies. Si, I'm aware of where the oil industry is heading given what's known about reserves/new developments. If I do buy, the intention is for the short term (4 yrs) rather than renting with the hope of having something to show for it at the end of the 4 yrs - small profit or return of investment at least. The Aberdeen property market is so heavily affected by what's happening in the oil industry, it's almost insular to what's happening in the UK property sector.
I have heard there are a lot of drilling rigs sitting idle at the moment - anyone confirm or otherwise ?

Kevin.

Si James

Rig prices have crashed, largely due to the change in the fiscal regime brought about by HMT. This was an increase in CT to 40%, which was supplosed to be offset by some PRT reductions. The two do not balance however.

Shell and BP are drilling almost no new exploration wells, and BP are going to sell off a lot of acreage and associated installations this year. Watch out for the "mom and pop" companies moving in. See Canadian Natural Resources for an example of this.

I am planning 4-5 years up here, then moving down to the central belt.

There is still money to be made, but it will get harder and harder, the cowboys will be the 1st to go, and many scummies will now be feeling the pinch.

Si

clubby

I work for a drilling contarctor and there are upwards of 13 rigs stacked at Invergordon now. Things are not good right now, although there is some work out there for next year.

Personally I would buy property in Aberdeen, over a four year peroid you should at least recover your investment. I wouldnt buy at the top end of the market though, as I think you could struggle to sell that kind of property again in 4 years. I defo would buy within city limits though, as I think they are the safest bet.

Kevin Groat

Clubby,

Thanks for that. If I do decide to buy it'll be later this year and I guess a lot can happen in this industry between now and then. I sure as heck won't be playing the £10k+ (on £100k property)over asking price game that seems to be the norm unless it's built into the relocation deal.

Kevin.