bigsinky

i was listening to analysts last night on some american news channel and while amercan crude has dipped to $80/barrel, brent crude at $105, $40Bn wiped of shares, gold just seems to keep moving up. now over $1800/oz with analysts saying possibly $2000/oz before the end of the year. my question is, as gold continues to get stronger will it come to a price point that seems to plateau? or with the volatility in the markets will it continue to feature strongly as people rein in their exposure to more risky commodities for something a bit more solid and dependable?

Tidgy

on the oil note does anything actualy think we'll see a drop in price at the pumps? bet shell and hte likes are rubbing there hands together

cookstar

iTrader: (6)

To the guys that hold gold, do you hold physical, (I'm assuming that means that it's in your possession)? Or paper?

What additional costs are involved in holding physical over paper?

Thanks.

Terminator X

iTrader: (7)

Seems to have been going up forever!



Was told to buy some a few years ago but didn't bother

TX.

alloy

Upside targets on gold using Fib Projection 1,779 then 1,842 followed by 1,905

If we see gold trade below 1735 then potential long entry areas would be 1,708 then 1,677 followed by 1638

bigsinky

that 1905 would be point 8 yes? are we talking days here i.e 21, 35 and 56?

alloy

??

bigsinky

are we talking fibbonacci sequence here and are your 3 monetary figures forecasts for 21 , 35 and 56 days ahead. i.e. 6th,7th and 8th numbers in the sequence or am i talking *****

alloy

***** mate lol

Fib can be used for time projections but i never use them in that sense. I dont trade time horizons i just trade price action, best guess would be early Oct, that is however a pure guess

bigsinky

no probs thanks

alloy

Here's the chart with the fib grid on....also note today we have an inverted hammer, i'd be tempted to get short if we take out the low of the day on the downside with a stop above the high.....



also FYI

Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Gold at current $1,730/oz “likely
discounting something far worse than realistic future events”
and will probably fall back to ~$1,600/oz over next month, say
MF Global technical analysts Craig Peskin, John Kolovos.
* $1,600 marks center of rising trading channel
* Says oil should bounce, is oversold; will face resistance in
$85-$90/bbl range
* Says stocks “extremely oversold,” would need to see
“signs of significant internal accumulation” before
calling for an exploitable rally

Trout

iTrader: (1)

I am not sure that if you bought in the last gold rush in 1979 you would think that. You would be sitting on 25 years of loss!!!!

Looks like a bubble to me - and guess what?

zip106

POP?

GlesgaKiss

You're psychic?

zip106

I've got £10k to invest in something safe - as in, I don't really want to lose it.

I could put this years allowance into an ISA paying 3% but that'll leave me nearly £5k left for putting elsewhere.

Buy gold now?

GlesgaKiss

What about NS&I index linked bonds? http://www.nsandi.com/savings-index-...s-certificates

Upper limit is £15k. That surely has to be the way to go if you want safety.

Gold is only 'safe' in the sense that you will definitely have something real to hold on to - in that respect it would give you safety from the absolute worst case, which is a collapse of the fiat money system. But guessing at the likelihood of something like that would be highly speculative. And the price of gold will only hold up or keep rising as long as the people in charge keep making the same mistakes. If, all of sudden, they begin to address the real problems and the underlying issues driving the price of gold up, you could see your gold halve in value. All you need to ask yourself is whether you could stomach that and whether that kind of safety is what you're after.

But certainly, for all but the very worst case, government guaranteed bonds would be the way to go, and you can't really go wrong with a tax free rate of inflation + 0.5%. At the current rate of inflation you're going to be losing at least 2% a year in that ISA paying 3%; whereas at least with the NS&I bonds you are seeing some kind of real return and guaranteed return of the principle - although, as I said, in the worst case a full return may equal 0.

alloy

The bad thing about investing in gold is that it is only worth what someone else is willing to pay, there is no yield, it is a precious metal of no use. Platinum today is cheaper than gold, this is a very rare occurence perhaps maybe 3 times over past 25 years i'd prefer buying platinum than gold, maybe even sell gold to buy platinum.....all depends on what your own view of gold is of course!

If you want exposure to gold, have a look at some gold proucing miners.....they will benefit from their correlation to their underlying product and they at least will pay you a yield...

zip106

Thanks for that.
I never even thought about NS&I.

I guess they're safe as long as UK PLC doesn't go bust...

Anyway, I'm going to look into them

Would this be the one?
http://www.nsandi.com/savings-needs-help-decide/6/11

AndyC_772

iTrader: (2)

...except for its industrial and commercial uses, of course.
http://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml

GlesgaKiss

Yeah, that's them. You could just have clicked the link in my post.

zip106

I saw your link after I posted....

GlesgaKiss

Hang your head in shame ^^^

alloy

I'll give you electronics, but the other uses are more luxury and not industrial....platinum is rarer and has more industrial use....no doubt gold is a great inflation hedge, it reassures investors, but that's about all it really does, people flock to it because historically that is what they are use to following a herd mentality.......gold is a very crowded trade, everyone is in on it and that means when it is time to get out supply will outstrip demand and that price you are so concerned about will come tumbling down usually leaving the retail investor left holding the baby....

Trout

iTrader: (1)

Agreed - I made some tidy profits on momentum trading Barrick Gold in 2008. Would have been a reasonable hold.

Trout

iTrader: (1)

With the price of gold as it is - maybe you want to invest in firms recovering gold from old electronics etc - they were profitable pre-2008 - must be coining it in now.

Other solid investment is waste management - we are making more and more waste and someone needs to take it away! Not glamorous but an interesting area, especially as everyone goes eco!

Trout

iTrader: (1)

People laughed at Paulson from 2005-2007 - he was telling everyone who would listen that RMBS and their derivatives were a bubble...

...he now has more money than God!!!


I bet he is shorting gold as we speak!

hodgy0_2

seems odd and counter intuitive that gold rises but oil softens

both finite resources -- but oil ultimately more usefull

Trout

iTrader: (1)

There lies the truth.

Oil is useful and the price is therefore driven by demand. With global recession lurking again - particularly in the largest consuming economy the price of oil will soften.

Saint AAI

So do you think now would be the time to offload any gold you may have to sell? Or would you hang on a little longer? I bought mine around '02 so am pleased with how it's gone.

TopBanana

Buy buy buy! I was in at $800 in a big way, no selling yet. It'll be the next bubble. I expect $8000