alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Last week, with all the furore about "Winter returning next week", I checked our forecast. Sure enough, VERY low temperatures of -5 degrees, up to 10cm snow and a massive windchill factor.

Just looked again, and now it says NO snow, temperatures well above zero and not much windchill

How can we take this sort of thing seriously?
It was NOT the Metoffice this time, I no longer bother with those wasters.

Geezer

Weather forecasting, like so many things, has ceased to become an observational/preditcion thing, it has become a slave to computer modelling, and unfortunately, the are not accurate enough.

Forecasting used to be more accurate (or at least seemingly so) when people had to rely on what was happening, what had happened before from similar situations, and then make a judgement on it.

Hell, in 1944, they accurately predicted a window of good weather for June 6th, and they were bang on! This was even before the modern computer had been invented.

Geezer

Rob_Impreza99

iTrader: (3)

Weather forecasters are like the people who predict horoscopes, a bunch of guessers.

Leslie

I think that is going a bit too far.

It is difficult to forecast for an area, impossible to deal with all the changes which ususally happen and affect the eventual weather.

A good met man can forecast very accurately for his own local area and we use to rely heavily on them in my job. It is surprising how local features can affect the eventual weather when it arrives.

They do rely on computer modelling, and the forecasting can only be as good as the way the modelling was done. As we know big inaccuracies can be expected. Not only in weather forecasting but in GBW and ozone holes etc. Very often with experience you could do a pretty good forecast yourself knowing reported conditions.

There is bound to be some guessing, weather is too entropic to ever be reliable.

I have to say, it was very rarely that we got a really bad forecast in all the years I was in my job.

Les

pslewis

That was in 1947 Les ... way before Computer Modelling

Jamie

I use the shipping and surfing web sites they are spot on better than that bbc crap.

Mifo

iTrader: (10)

They cant even forecast the next few weeks and the they come and tell us what the temperature will be in 50 years time .

SiPie

Well I'll stick my neck out and stick up for the met office, who for my locality tend to call it pretty much spot on (give or take a few hours here or there). Maybe the east coast of Scotland is a bit easier for them to get right but I check and at times depend on their forecasts daily for commuting on me old bike and they call it right most of the time.

Jamie

You should sing a song about the weather man SiPie

Chip

Ask a farmer, they always seem to get it right.

Chip

97TURBO

Thats cause up the east coast it's always sunny

Leslie

But I lasted in the job for a very long time Pete. I had several changes of overalls!

Les

SiPie

Met office certainly forecast all this snow we have correctly ....

Coffin Dodger

Can't beat looking out of the window

Leslie

Thats no fun for them CD, its too easy!

Les

_Meridian_

iTrader: (1)

Er - D-Day was supposed to the 5th, but the weather was unexpectedly bad, so it was delayed a day. It was nearly delayed another day because the sea was still pretty choppy, but it was decided that it was just acceptable and the invasion went ahead.


M

Diesel

They truly are useless arent they! I'm cycling a lot at the mo and they change the forecast overnight. Half the time they say get the wet weather gear out and come morning its dry as a bone!

They promised us a rubbish Sunday and it it was glorious!

D

zip106

They may as well use one of these - a bit more reliable...
http://www.goring-by-sea.uk.com/barom.htm