More on this flu thing (sorry)
30 April 2009, 08:07 AM
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More on this flu thing (sorry)
In a recent thread I mentioned that my 23 year old daughter, Tor, is set to go off travelling around S America for 2 months. She plans to leave 9th May.
Her mum and I are increasingly worried about this bloody flu thing which now seems set to take hold worldwide. Level 5 and all that.
Now Tor and her mate will be in the worst possible environment - in dirty hostels, crowded buses, planes and trains. If she does run into a junior epidemic than local hospitals are going to be overwhelmed and she could find it hard to get any appropriate treatment.
As said she is a big girl now and must make her own choice. This is the trip of a lifetime for her and she has worked so hard to save up. In September she is stuck for 2 years doing an MSc so she can't just postpone the trip for 6 months.
So what would you be advising?
David
Her mum and I are increasingly worried about this bloody flu thing which now seems set to take hold worldwide. Level 5 and all that.
Now Tor and her mate will be in the worst possible environment - in dirty hostels, crowded buses, planes and trains. If she does run into a junior epidemic than local hospitals are going to be overwhelmed and she could find it hard to get any appropriate treatment.
As said she is a big girl now and must make her own choice. This is the trip of a lifetime for her and she has worked so hard to save up. In September she is stuck for 2 years doing an MSc so she can't just postpone the trip for 6 months.
So what would you be advising?
David
30 April 2009, 08:14 AM
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Speaking dispassionately.
She's 23 and is old enough to weigh it up for herself. It's her decision.
Speaking as a father, if it was my child, I'd be advising her against it. If she was travelling to the US, or OZ etc, as long as she had adequate medical insurance I'd be happier. South American hospitals? Not so sure she'd get the same level of care.
It's a tough one.
She's 23 and is old enough to weigh it up for herself. It's her decision.
Speaking as a father, if it was my child, I'd be advising her against it. If she was travelling to the US, or OZ etc, as long as she had adequate medical insurance I'd be happier. South American hospitals? Not so sure she'd get the same level of care.
It's a tough one.
30 April 2009, 08:15 AM
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I'd go..........
But I'd take a pack of Tamiflu, and at the first signs of flu symptoms start the 10 day course of treatment.
It's everywhere now, so it makes little difference where you are, as you need to take the same precautions anyway!
But I'd take a pack of Tamiflu, and at the first signs of flu symptoms start the 10 day course of treatment.
It's everywhere now, so it makes little difference where you are, as you need to take the same precautions anyway!
30 April 2009, 08:20 AM
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Personally I'd say 'go'. From what I've read beneath the headlines, it's a mild flu which just about everyone gets over. The only person to have died outside of Mexico was in the US - a Mexican kid who'd gone to the US for treatment......
From Swine Flu: Mexicans Stay Home As Pandemic Threat Level Raised From Four To Five By WHO | World News | Sky News
" ... Almost all cases outside of Mexico have had only mild symptoms, and only a handful of people have needed hospital treatment ... ". Also, if you do some more reading (can't find the report I read at the moment) only about 7 cases of the 160-odd people who have died have been confirmed as dying from swine flu. And I've seen nothing that tells us how those people lived, whether old, young, poor, malnourished etc etc
Also, don't take numbers of flu deaths quoted as being accurate. For example, from The Ecologist - The Flu Vaccine... A Shot in the Dark?
we have " ... According to the UK Department of Health (DOH), 3,000 to 4,000 excess deaths are attributable to flu in non-epidemic years. During epidemics this figure rises; in 1989-90 there were apparently 30,000 excess deaths in Great Britain attributable to flu. The new DOH ‘factsheet’ Influenza: The Disease and The Vaccine goes further, estimating that an additional 12,500 people die each year during the flu season in England and Wales. In the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website notes that, on average, 36,000 people die each year from flu in the US.
Contrast these figures with those from the Office for National Statistics, which show that in 2004 only 33 people died of influenza in England and Wales, and the CDC’s own data showing that in 2002 just 753 people died from flu and in 2001 only 257.
The discrepancy between actual deaths and those reported in ‘factsheets’ arises from the practice of combining flu deaths with a percentage of those from pneumonia and other respiratory diseases, making flu appear more deadly than it is .... ".
So, as I said, let her go. As she says, she's big enough to make her own decisions now. Just try to make sure she has all the facts.
Dave
From Swine Flu: Mexicans Stay Home As Pandemic Threat Level Raised From Four To Five By WHO | World News | Sky News
" ... Almost all cases outside of Mexico have had only mild symptoms, and only a handful of people have needed hospital treatment ... ". Also, if you do some more reading (can't find the report I read at the moment) only about 7 cases of the 160-odd people who have died have been confirmed as dying from swine flu. And I've seen nothing that tells us how those people lived, whether old, young, poor, malnourished etc etc
Also, don't take numbers of flu deaths quoted as being accurate. For example, from The Ecologist - The Flu Vaccine... A Shot in the Dark?
we have " ... According to the UK Department of Health (DOH), 3,000 to 4,000 excess deaths are attributable to flu in non-epidemic years. During epidemics this figure rises; in 1989-90 there were apparently 30,000 excess deaths in Great Britain attributable to flu. The new DOH ‘factsheet’ Influenza: The Disease and The Vaccine goes further, estimating that an additional 12,500 people die each year during the flu season in England and Wales. In the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website notes that, on average, 36,000 people die each year from flu in the US.
Contrast these figures with those from the Office for National Statistics, which show that in 2004 only 33 people died of influenza in England and Wales, and the CDC’s own data showing that in 2002 just 753 people died from flu and in 2001 only 257.
The discrepancy between actual deaths and those reported in ‘factsheets’ arises from the practice of combining flu deaths with a percentage of those from pneumonia and other respiratory diseases, making flu appear more deadly than it is .... ".
So, as I said, let her go. As she says, she's big enough to make her own decisions now. Just try to make sure she has all the facts.
Dave
30 April 2009, 09:01 AM
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the virus will get stronger now, in the southern hemisphere as it reaches winter, where the virus will thrive.
we should be better here as we approach summer.
I was in china as the bird flu hit............. worrying times, given what a filthy place it is- ditto south america will be--- esp doing backpacking thing and doing nothing but interacting with travellers/dirt/germs etc.
very happy to get home and to somewhere clean.
I wouldn't let her go.
are there any flights even going now ???????? might be out of yr hands
we should be better here as we approach summer.
I was in china as the bird flu hit............. worrying times, given what a filthy place it is- ditto south america will be--- esp doing backpacking thing and doing nothing but interacting with travellers/dirt/germs etc.
very happy to get home and to somewhere clean.
I wouldn't let her go.
are there any flights even going now ???????? might be out of yr hands
30 April 2009, 09:09 AM
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Id let her go and wouldnt worry too much. The only thing to be worried about, like you said, is the lack of good treatment facilities if something were to happen. Although, presuming she would be going with private medical care then she'll probably be seen to before any locals lol.
Where in S.America would she be? Big cities in Argentina and Brazil would still be pretty capable. some of the more northern smaller countries would be less likely to deal with it.
Honestly, its going to be pretty harmless IMO
Where in S.America would she be? Big cities in Argentina and Brazil would still be pretty capable. some of the more northern smaller countries would be less likely to deal with it.
Honestly, its going to be pretty harmless IMO
30 April 2009, 09:14 AM
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As a parent you would obviuosly be concerned - but it's not like she's of to Basra. 
So long as she is sensible (you can get all sorts of anti-bac hand cleaners etc) then she should go and enjoy it - especially as she has worked so hard for it.
Has she thought of going to have a chat with her GP about what precautions / medication she could take?
So long as she is sensible (you can get all sorts of anti-bac hand cleaners etc) then she should go and enjoy it - especially as she has worked so hard for it.
Has she thought of going to have a chat with her GP about what precautions / medication she could take?
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30 April 2009, 09:27 AM
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I'd suggest that she heads to somewhere other than South America. Perhaps Australia and New Zealand who have better medical care than third rate countries like Bolivia, Peru, Patagaonia and the UK.
30 April 2009, 09:29 AM
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30 April 2009, 10:03 AM
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30 April 2009, 11:11 AM
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30 April 2009, 11:40 AM
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30 April 2009, 11:54 AM
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Isn't this just like Mad cow disease that we were all supposed to die from. Or Salmonella that we were all supposed to die from. Or that flesh eating disease that was reported years ago? We were all going to die from that too.
We're all going to die from Global warming.
Typical media hype. Panic about fcukall and scare half the population.
Sorry, but I never stopped eating Beef, eggs, chicken. If I had an itch, I never thought I'd caught the flesh eating disease, and if I catch a cold, It's just that, a cold. No bloody Swine fever.
Tell her to go and enjoy herself. You both need to stop worrying.
We're all going to die from Global warming.
Typical media hype. Panic about fcukall and scare half the population.
Sorry, but I never stopped eating Beef, eggs, chicken. If I had an itch, I never thought I'd caught the flesh eating disease, and if I catch a cold, It's just that, a cold. No bloody Swine fever.
Tell her to go and enjoy herself. You both need to stop worrying.
30 April 2009, 12:09 PM
#18
Hi, its on the BBC website http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/ame...as/8021547.stm
1st reported was in US and it has the most cases(more then the said infected area)
Maybe im reading around the story and the figures.
1st reported was in US and it has the most cases(more then the said infected area)
Maybe im reading around the story and the figures.
30 April 2009, 12:16 PM
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Hi, its on the BBC website http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/ame...as/8021547.stm
1st reported was in US and it has the most cases(more then the said infected area)
Maybe im reading around the story and the figures.
1st reported was in US and it has the most cases(more then the said infected area)
Maybe im reading around the story and the figures.
" ... Officials have put the number of suspected deaths from swine flu in Mexico at 168, although just eight deaths have been confirmed, with 26 infections positively tested ..."
But just under that quote is another, from *the director-general of health and consumer protection* in Europe, keeping a realistic NOT sense of perspective here ... " ... It is not a question of whether people will die, but more a question of how many. Will it be hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands? ... ".
Complete dingbat. As has been mentioned above, think back to the death tools forecast for things such as CJD, Bird Flu, Sars, etc etc And how many have come to pass??????
Dave
30 April 2009, 02:12 PM
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Thanks very much for taking the trouble to reply in a serious way 
An interesting mix of views. I can mostly tell who is a father and who isn't!!
I am going to speak to Tor's travel mate's dad over the weekend and sound him out (never met her parents btw).
Cheers, David
An interesting mix of views. I can mostly tell who is a father and who isn't!!
I am going to speak to Tor's travel mate's dad over the weekend and sound him out (never met her parents btw).
Cheers, David
30 April 2009, 02:30 PM
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I'm in Argentina right now, just about no one knows what Swine Flu is, the media hype has not taken hold just yet. Dengue Fever on the other hand is being taken seriously, large cities have been fumigated and there are warnings everywhere. Make sure she packs a good supply of Deet based spray, the natural stuff here's not so good.
30 April 2009, 02:31 PM
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Hi David,
I was talking to a friend yesterday about this as he has a 2 week holiday booked in Mexico. One of my first questions was would his travel insurance payout if he didn't go? I don't know the answer to that but I would suggest if the government are advising against travel that should have some bearing on whether an insurance company would pay out or not. Unfortunately money talks for a lot of people. If your daughter could get her money back she could go to Indian, asia, NZ or Oz. The worlds a big place.
From what I have read the chances of her catching anything are very slim but going near the area that has had the most confirmed cases/deaths must increase the chances.
Bottom line for me, is that life is extremely precious and can be taken away in an instant. I would never knowingly put myself in a position that could increase the chances of life being shortened. I would also try extremely hard to stop any of my family or loved ones from doing the same. Not all elements of life can be controlled but the flipside of the coin is many can be.
I don't envy the position your in as you obviously care for your kids very much.
Chop
FWIW - I'm not a parent.
I was talking to a friend yesterday about this as he has a 2 week holiday booked in Mexico. One of my first questions was would his travel insurance payout if he didn't go? I don't know the answer to that but I would suggest if the government are advising against travel that should have some bearing on whether an insurance company would pay out or not. Unfortunately money talks for a lot of people. If your daughter could get her money back she could go to Indian, asia, NZ or Oz. The worlds a big place.
From what I have read the chances of her catching anything are very slim but going near the area that has had the most confirmed cases/deaths must increase the chances.
Bottom line for me, is that life is extremely precious and can be taken away in an instant. I would never knowingly put myself in a position that could increase the chances of life being shortened. I would also try extremely hard to stop any of my family or loved ones from doing the same. Not all elements of life can be controlled but the flipside of the coin is many can be.
I don't envy the position your in as you obviously care for your kids very much.
Chop
FWIW - I'm not a parent.
30 April 2009, 09:24 PM
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30 April 2009, 09:34 PM
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As risks go for a young woman traveling, Flu is low down the agenda, if she is savvy then she will be ok, my brother had some horrendous stomach trouble in South America when travelling, so risk wise, I think it is no worse now than it was.
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