Doom Mongers: Look out Below!
01 February 2008, 04:04 PM
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Doom Mongers: Look out Below!
Safe As Houses!!!!..............NOT
FOCUS Darkening clouds point to UK house price falls this year
LONDON, Feb. 1, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Falling house prices look an increasingly likely prospect in the UK this year, with economists losing confidence in the market's ability to hold on to current price levels.
While the consensus view late last year was for prices to flatline or rise very modestly in 2008, an increasing number of analysts now believe the market will fall to some extent as a continuing stream of negative newsflow deters potential homeowners.
'All in all, after (the) collapse in mortgage approvals for December, we are increasingly minded to consider an alternative scenario for the housing market where, rather than prices stabilising in nominal terms at current levels, there is a prolonged period of falling prices,' said Alan Castle, economist at Lehman Brothers. (NYSE:LEH)
The Bank of England reported a sharp fall in mortgage approvals to 73,000 in December, the lowest since records began in 1999, indicating future demand for houses may be significantly weaker than analysts had previously factored in.
Continued falls in monthly house prices are also fuelling fears of a sharp correction that might become self-fulfilling, while the credit crunch has made mortgage conditions far less generous and put some households' vulnerability into stark relief.
The BoE figures were also the tipping point for Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight. After the data, he cut his forecast for 2008 prices to show a fall of 5 pct from a more modest 3 pct drop previously.
'Markedly reduced housing market activity is now weighing down significantly on house prices, and this seems set to continue for an extended period,' Archer said. 'There is clearly a very real danger that a sharp housing market correction could occur.'
Credit Suisse takes a more extreme view than most, predicting UK house prices will fall 10 pct this year. That is a slight shift lower from its forecast for a drop of 5-10 pct, made in the autumn.
'House prices have started to fall and we think leading indicators like the RICS survey, consumer confidence and mortgage approvals will continue to feed into further declines through 2008,' said Rob Self, analyst at Credit Suisse.
Capital Economics, which has been looking out for a fall in prices in 2008 for longer than most other analysts, lowered its forecast in mid-December to a 5 pct drop from 3 pct.
'By late last year, we had already had a year or so of falling new buyer enquiries,' explained Brigid O'Leary, property economist at Capital. 'The credit crunch made people less inclined to get involved in the market... from September things were seeming more serious.'
All the while, monthly house price figures have been coming in weak, gradually pushing the annual rate of growth closer to zero.
The Nationwide this week reported January prices down a modest 0.1 pct but noted this was the third straight monthly drop, which pushed annual growth down to 4.2 pct.
Annual growth in the previous year was 9.3 pct, by contrast.
Analysts linked directly to the housing market remain a shade more upbeat than others.
Nationwide's economists predict zero growth this year, while Hometrack expects prices to edge up 1 pct.
'While price falls are likely in localised areas over 2008, these are unlikely to be widespread enough to result in significant headline house price falls over 2008,' said Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research.
The Halifax, which reported prices fell 0.8 pct in the fourth quarter from the third despite a 1.3 pct monthly rebound in December, also predicts flat prices in 2008.
FOCUS Darkening clouds point to UK house price falls this year
LONDON, Feb. 1, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Falling house prices look an increasingly likely prospect in the UK this year, with economists losing confidence in the market's ability to hold on to current price levels.
While the consensus view late last year was for prices to flatline or rise very modestly in 2008, an increasing number of analysts now believe the market will fall to some extent as a continuing stream of negative newsflow deters potential homeowners.
'All in all, after (the) collapse in mortgage approvals for December, we are increasingly minded to consider an alternative scenario for the housing market where, rather than prices stabilising in nominal terms at current levels, there is a prolonged period of falling prices,' said Alan Castle, economist at Lehman Brothers. (NYSE:LEH)
The Bank of England reported a sharp fall in mortgage approvals to 73,000 in December, the lowest since records began in 1999, indicating future demand for houses may be significantly weaker than analysts had previously factored in.
Continued falls in monthly house prices are also fuelling fears of a sharp correction that might become self-fulfilling, while the credit crunch has made mortgage conditions far less generous and put some households' vulnerability into stark relief.
The BoE figures were also the tipping point for Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight. After the data, he cut his forecast for 2008 prices to show a fall of 5 pct from a more modest 3 pct drop previously.
'Markedly reduced housing market activity is now weighing down significantly on house prices, and this seems set to continue for an extended period,' Archer said. 'There is clearly a very real danger that a sharp housing market correction could occur.'
Credit Suisse takes a more extreme view than most, predicting UK house prices will fall 10 pct this year. That is a slight shift lower from its forecast for a drop of 5-10 pct, made in the autumn.
'House prices have started to fall and we think leading indicators like the RICS survey, consumer confidence and mortgage approvals will continue to feed into further declines through 2008,' said Rob Self, analyst at Credit Suisse.
Capital Economics, which has been looking out for a fall in prices in 2008 for longer than most other analysts, lowered its forecast in mid-December to a 5 pct drop from 3 pct.
'By late last year, we had already had a year or so of falling new buyer enquiries,' explained Brigid O'Leary, property economist at Capital. 'The credit crunch made people less inclined to get involved in the market... from September things were seeming more serious.'
All the while, monthly house price figures have been coming in weak, gradually pushing the annual rate of growth closer to zero.
The Nationwide this week reported January prices down a modest 0.1 pct but noted this was the third straight monthly drop, which pushed annual growth down to 4.2 pct.
Annual growth in the previous year was 9.3 pct, by contrast.
Analysts linked directly to the housing market remain a shade more upbeat than others.
Nationwide's economists predict zero growth this year, while Hometrack expects prices to edge up 1 pct.
'While price falls are likely in localised areas over 2008, these are unlikely to be widespread enough to result in significant headline house price falls over 2008,' said Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research.
The Halifax, which reported prices fell 0.8 pct in the fourth quarter from the third despite a 1.3 pct monthly rebound in December, also predicts flat prices in 2008.
01 February 2008, 04:17 PM
#2
an increasing number of analysts now believe the market will fall to some extent as a continuing stream of negative newsflow deters potential homeowners.
Continued falls in monthly house prices are also fuelling fears of a sharp correction that might become self-fulfilling,
The media will play a big part in any large drops, as they did in creating large increases in the first place.
01 February 2008, 05:35 PM
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Safe As Houses!!!!..............NOT
FOCUS Darkening clouds point to UK house price falls this year
LONDON, Feb. 1, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Falling house prices look an increasingly likely prospect in the UK this year, with economists losing confidence in the market's ability to hold on to current price levels.
While the consensus view late last year was for prices to flatline or rise very modestly in 2008, an increasing number of analysts now believe the market will fall to some extent as a continuing stream of negative newsflow deters potential homeowners.
'All in all, after (the) collapse in mortgage approvals for December, we are increasingly minded to consider an alternative scenario for the housing market where, rather than prices stabilising in nominal terms at current levels, there is a prolonged period of falling prices,' said Alan Castle, economist at Lehman Brothers. (NYSE:LEH)
The Bank of England reported a sharp fall in mortgage approvals to 73,000 in December, the lowest since records began in 1999, indicating future demand for houses may be significantly weaker than analysts had previously factored in.
Continued falls in monthly house prices are also fuelling fears of a sharp correction that might become self-fulfilling, while the credit crunch has made mortgage conditions far less generous and put some households' vulnerability into stark relief.
The BoE figures were also the tipping point for Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight. After the data, he cut his forecast for 2008 prices to show a fall of 5 pct from a more modest 3 pct drop previously.
'Markedly reduced housing market activity is now weighing down significantly on house prices, and this seems set to continue for an extended period,' Archer said. 'There is clearly a very real danger that a sharp housing market correction could occur.'
Credit Suisse takes a more extreme view than most, predicting UK house prices will fall 10 pct this year. That is a slight shift lower from its forecast for a drop of 5-10 pct, made in the autumn.
'House prices have started to fall and we think leading indicators like the RICS survey, consumer confidence and mortgage approvals will continue to feed into further declines through 2008,' said Rob Self, analyst at Credit Suisse.
Capital Economics, which has been looking out for a fall in prices in 2008 for longer than most other analysts, lowered its forecast in mid-December to a 5 pct drop from 3 pct.
'By late last year, we had already had a year or so of falling new buyer enquiries,' explained Brigid O'Leary, property economist at Capital. 'The credit crunch made people less inclined to get involved in the market... from September things were seeming more serious.'
All the while, monthly house price figures have been coming in weak, gradually pushing the annual rate of growth closer to zero.
The Nationwide this week reported January prices down a modest 0.1 pct but noted this was the third straight monthly drop, which pushed annual growth down to 4.2 pct.
Annual growth in the previous year was 9.3 pct, by contrast.
Analysts linked directly to the housing market remain a shade more upbeat than others.
Nationwide's economists predict zero growth this year, while Hometrack expects prices to edge up 1 pct.
'While price falls are likely in localised areas over 2008, these are unlikely to be widespread enough to result in significant headline house price falls over 2008,' said Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research.
The Halifax, which reported prices fell 0.8 pct in the fourth quarter from the third despite a 1.3 pct monthly rebound in December, also predicts flat prices in 2008.
FOCUS Darkening clouds point to UK house price falls this year
LONDON, Feb. 1, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Falling house prices look an increasingly likely prospect in the UK this year, with economists losing confidence in the market's ability to hold on to current price levels.
While the consensus view late last year was for prices to flatline or rise very modestly in 2008, an increasing number of analysts now believe the market will fall to some extent as a continuing stream of negative newsflow deters potential homeowners.
'All in all, after (the) collapse in mortgage approvals for December, we are increasingly minded to consider an alternative scenario for the housing market where, rather than prices stabilising in nominal terms at current levels, there is a prolonged period of falling prices,' said Alan Castle, economist at Lehman Brothers. (NYSE:LEH)
The Bank of England reported a sharp fall in mortgage approvals to 73,000 in December, the lowest since records began in 1999, indicating future demand for houses may be significantly weaker than analysts had previously factored in.
Continued falls in monthly house prices are also fuelling fears of a sharp correction that might become self-fulfilling, while the credit crunch has made mortgage conditions far less generous and put some households' vulnerability into stark relief.
The BoE figures were also the tipping point for Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight. After the data, he cut his forecast for 2008 prices to show a fall of 5 pct from a more modest 3 pct drop previously.
'Markedly reduced housing market activity is now weighing down significantly on house prices, and this seems set to continue for an extended period,' Archer said. 'There is clearly a very real danger that a sharp housing market correction could occur.'
Credit Suisse takes a more extreme view than most, predicting UK house prices will fall 10 pct this year. That is a slight shift lower from its forecast for a drop of 5-10 pct, made in the autumn.
'House prices have started to fall and we think leading indicators like the RICS survey, consumer confidence and mortgage approvals will continue to feed into further declines through 2008,' said Rob Self, analyst at Credit Suisse.
Capital Economics, which has been looking out for a fall in prices in 2008 for longer than most other analysts, lowered its forecast in mid-December to a 5 pct drop from 3 pct.
'By late last year, we had already had a year or so of falling new buyer enquiries,' explained Brigid O'Leary, property economist at Capital. 'The credit crunch made people less inclined to get involved in the market... from September things were seeming more serious.'
All the while, monthly house price figures have been coming in weak, gradually pushing the annual rate of growth closer to zero.
The Nationwide this week reported January prices down a modest 0.1 pct but noted this was the third straight monthly drop, which pushed annual growth down to 4.2 pct.
Annual growth in the previous year was 9.3 pct, by contrast.
Analysts linked directly to the housing market remain a shade more upbeat than others.
Nationwide's economists predict zero growth this year, while Hometrack expects prices to edge up 1 pct.
'While price falls are likely in localised areas over 2008, these are unlikely to be widespread enough to result in significant headline house price falls over 2008,' said Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research.
The Halifax, which reported prices fell 0.8 pct in the fourth quarter from the third despite a 1.3 pct monthly rebound in December, also predicts flat prices in 2008.
dude, get a life.
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