alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Had an argument with wifey this morning after seeing a report on Breakfast TV. She's been listening to one of the charity organisations asking for more money on the grounds that n million people die each day of AIDS, cholera etc etc. This morning it was Malaria.

Now I maintain that despite all these diseases, the population of third world countries is still on the rise. She says it's rubbish, and their population must be falling.

So who's right, guys, and what proof?

TIA, Alcazar

SiPie

This will answer your questions

Cheers

PS Summary of the relevant bits

From the 3.68 billion people that will be added to the world population between 1995 and 2050, Asia will contribute some 2 billion (see Figure C1_3 and Table C1_2). This enormous increase is due to the already massive size of the population. Most of this growth will occur in the next three decades. Between 1995 and 2025 Asia's population will grow by 1.35 billion - between 2025 and 2050 the increase is projected to be just 658 million (see Table C1_2).
Despite a projected increase in mortality due to AIDS, we cannot expect a significant slowing down of population growth in Africa. This continent will contribute 1.3 billion people to the world population between 1995 and the middle of the next century - almost twice as much as its current total population. Fertility is still so high in Sub-Saharan Africa that it can offset the effect of rising mortality. With an increase of 734 million over the next 30 years Africa's population will more than double.

De Warrenne

You're right, proof at http://www.un.org/esa/population/pub...nnextables.PDF

try not to rub it in too much

ajm

Certainly in Africa the populations are rising as I understand it. It is about sustainablility. It sounds harsh but one of the reasons they are in so much strife with starvation is because their population is greater than can be sustained by the natural evironment/infrastructure. We give them a steady supply of food, the population rises further until they meet the new threshold and people starve again.

Of course political pressures, warring factions etc all play their part too.

Hoppy

You can argue with the figures, but the upward trend is undeniable.

I would lay most of the blame at the foot of politics, and Africa is an absolute global disgrace to us all. Tribal hatred - the world is full of it (eg Northern Ireland) but it's way out of control in Africa. And the more aid we give, the worse things seem to get. I begin to lose faith in human nature when I see aid convoys beying hi-jacked by soldiers or armed militia. Not meaning to be flippant, but if they were all given guns, they'd wipe eachother out within weeks.

India and China are different altogether, with economies growing at an almost explosive rate. This must be good in the long-term, but there will be a lot of pain along the way, and a lot of it felt by the West as two or three billion people grow wealthier, consume more, produce more, and all at such low cost the West cannot can only watch and wonder. And worry.

Richard.

Petem95

Will be interesting to see what happens when all of China etc become consumers like the West as there simply arent enough resources in the world to sustain this sort of lifestyle for everyone.

At current population levels we would require the resources of 3 worlds for everyone to live like us in the UK....

scoobynutta555

Re Africa.

More than likely most of it's problems date back to being former colonies and current outside influences. I'd either say stand back and stop all aid etc etc etc and just let them get on with it, or go in there properly and sort everything out once and for all.

Sending blankets and piffiling food/medical aid is not the solution IMHO as it just prolonges the situation.

Dr Hu

just wait until all those thousand/millions of people riding pushbikes in China all buy a car that the world car manufacturers are desperate to sell them. (even making mega cheap china spec specials just for that emerging market)

It seems madness that on one side of the world we are desperately trying to rein in car use and the other they are desperately trying to promote it - all seems wrong.

But who is to say that johnny foreigner in china should'nt be allowed to drive a car, but we are..... all difficult questions, but I know one thing, money talks and they see a mahooosive marketplace there

And the Africa question, about massive famine & food aid - just fecking MOVE! - The area they live in OBVIOUSLY cannot sustain life/crops - get over it, you can't live where there aint no rain/irrigation - sending food aid just prolongs the agony.
Migrate to the Nile FFS!