JoanUK300

Where can I find a RELIABLE weather forecast....we are on our hols, down the southwest, for two weeks and I`ve looked at a couple but they both say different things, one says it`s going to rain for the whole two weeks we are away and the other says 22 degrees and sunny.........so what do I pack?

Anyone have any links to a 'true to it`s word' forecast for the next two weeks please?



Joan.

JDM

No such thing exists


Look at it this way you are going on holiday, in England in August. Of course it's going to rain.Pack everything, problem solved.

tucker101uk

For the most up to date and (pretty) reliable weather reporting (i have found) go directly to the met office:

http://www.metoffice.co.uk/

Nick

I use MSN weather http://www.msn.co.uk/news/weather/Default.asp?Ath=t which is generally fairly accurate.

JDM

None of those sites provide accurate predictions as far ahead as 2 weeks.

No such thing exists.

If you want a reasonable idea of what tomorrows weather will be look at the met office.

JoanUK300

Well I found this which gives 10 days weather...
http://uk.weather.com/weather/local/...&code=code&y=8


But is it accurate?

JDM

The further you get into the future then generally speaking the less accurate the forecasts become.

I wouldn't rely on any forecast, even one a day ahead because there is no way of predicting with 100% accuracy what is going to happen.

Without wishing to put a downer on your holiday my advice would be pack some waterproofs and an umbrella. Look at it this way at least you probably won't get sunstroke.

IWatkins

Generally speaking, in settled conditions, forecasts are only accurate (temperature, rainfall etc.) out to 72-96 hours. In unsettled conditions, only out to 24-36 hours and even then although detail may be correct, timing of events can be out.

Anyone who says they have an accurate (i.e. detailed) 2 weeks forecast for anywhere in the UK = Delusional.

(I'm in the trade).

Cheers

Ian

Ray_li

Once seen a website that pilots use but cant find it anymore

HankScorpio

Being an **** geek, I once logged what the BBC were forecasting for the following 5 days, noting it down twice a day, keeping track of the changes...
Even for the next day it changes hour to hour. All they're doing is trying to predict based on historical and current data and trends seen previously, the best you'll get is a reasonable guess and as for two weeks in advance - hopeless.

dpb

weatherman always lies .......specially after a certain micheal fish got it wrong

JoanUK300

Oh well, I`ll just pack everything then.....wellies and all

H7

The only reliable weather forecaster I've found is http://www.weatheraction.com. The Met Office couldn't forecast snow in the Antarctic

Franx

I'd say around 5 days maximum, for weather forecasts. Anything more is likely to be dubious, to say the least. For 5 day forecasts, the Met office is good.

Other ones:

www.theyr.net
www.metcheck.com
www.windguru.cz - there is some UK info on there - look past the first bit...
www.xcweather.co.uk

They're all good forecasts, although only for a maximum of 6 days.
Have fun.

GaryK

yes statistically dont forecasters get it wrong 60% of the time? I always take the attitude 'you cant forecast it and you cant change it' its really that simple! UK is far too small a country to accurately predict weather.

ChristianR

iTrader: (1)

it was for my wedding day! The day before, it shows you the weather by the hour for the next day. Worked out to be correct!

however, up to the wedding, using up to the 10day forcast, it basically kept on changing daily.. I think it must use average or something? who knows.. but as I said it was very accurate for the per hour one.

JoanUK300

Had a look again today and yes, some of has changed, so I`ll wait till tomorrow and check again....

Thanks for all the replies...

gavnnik

Weather forecasting relies on calculations of probablity. The further you look into the future the more probable options are available. Basically a computer model is run lots of times. If out of 100 times, 99 say rain then they will predict rain.

This is of course an over simplification. 2-3 days is about the maximum effective range for a forecast.

WRX Wannabe

Just look out the window

IWatkins

Gavnnik,

Don't know which models you are talking about but that certainly doesn't happen for the main Met Office forecasts nor for most other major met centres. They are generated by a model that actually models the atmosphere, not by working on probabilities.

Maybe you are talking about ensembles ? They pull together all the output from different models around the world and then looks how close each of them are, there by producing an "average" forecast. Still a bit hit and miss.

Cheers

Ian

gavnnik

Yes I was thinking of ensemble forecasting...

http://www.metoffice.com/research/nwp/ensemble/ from the Met office website

Perhaps it was a little simplistic in explanation. The models are sometimes run multiple times giving a probable result.