andrew6321

In a similar vein to Mr Smalley's post...

So the world's stock markets have gone through the floor at the moment. On the basis that there's nothing like a good war to boost buyer confidence, what are people's views on when or if the markets will pick up?

On the basis that the stock market has grown an average of 8.2% per year over the past 80 years (including within that time several wars & recessions), my current thinking is that investors might be advised to leave investments alone for a couple of years, rather than panicking. Any thoughts?

Andrew

fast bloke

Stocks will probably rally at the first sign of a military strike. I would be surprised if the FTSE 100 gets back near 6000 mark for 2 or 3 years

Jerome

I have a Reuters share options scheme that comes up this Monday (my Millennium bonus no less!). The option price is £5.50. Current Reuters share price £5.34 so my bonus is negative. I reckon it will be at least 6 months before any stability returns and 1-2 years before shares are at a (half)decent level again. I hope these predictions are just my inate pessimism coming to the fore.

Unless you have got some money you can afford to lose and/or do without for some time, I would stay well clear of the stock market right now.

Tiggs

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:<HR>Originally posted by fast bloke:
<B>Stocks will probably rally at the first sign of a military strike[/quote]

interesting thought... why would they do that? evry yank will sit indoors and stay as far from planes, shopping malls etc as possible. hardly the thing to move consumer confidence forward which is the only thing holding off a US economic decline- dont you think?


however.... good time to buy for the long term.

Tiggs

babber

That's nothing.... I know poeple that have Telewest share and paid in excess of £5.50.

Last week they were as low as 32p

I have two options, one at £2.35 and the other at £1.85. Was planning to pay for the four daughters weddings with my profits......

Not LOL..... Cheers Phill

boomer

With my cynical head on, although shares in insurance companies and airlines are probably going to plummet, i bet that those in "skyscraper construction" and "military hardware" companies are about to boom!!!!

mb

fast bloke

Tiggs - time will tell. Consumer confidence does not control daily rates on the stockmarket. It controls the overall trend. Check Neil's thread for actuals today. The market's have taken a massive loss from panic selling, caused by lack of certainty over retaliation. The first strike will be a big one, traders will get the (very short term)feelgood factor,people who have cashed in their chips in the past few days will start buying and the markets will rally. A prolonged war will see the markets decline slowly again, but a short sharp shock a la Iraq could be the only way the US can fend of a deep reccesion. If you where going to bet on a horse race, you would check the form books. If you are going to bet on the markets, check the history books. It is silly to predict the future in times of uncertainty, by my money will be going on FTSE 100 and Dow Jones making at least 5% within hours of the first strike. Get in with the right company and you should be lookng at 40%. No doubt one of will bring this post to the top in a few days to say 'I told you so'

stevem2k

There's plenty of money to be made in the markets ... just don't think that a stock at 25% of it's high point is 'good value' just because it is only 25% of it's high ....

Swimming against the tide is daft. If the markets are falling, sit with cash or get an account you can short with ~ finspreads is good, as you can trade pocket money.

If you do buy anything, set a stoploss and stick to it. Religiously. Really. No questions.

SteveM