Where I am looking the properties are all getting put under offer within a week, if any good and well priced.

They were accepting offers of 20% Off as standard last November 2008 ..... now it is nearer 5-10% as there are so many more people looking.

In other words, without seeming so, prices have RISEN about 10% over the last 2 months!

What the Agents report, however, is that the buyers are pretty much 100% Cash Buyers who do not want their money in the Bank anymore. The market is extremely active below £250k - but nothing much is moving above this.

Which means that people are not actually 'moving' - cash buyers are buying empty properties .... when these buyers are satisfied I fear that there may well be another downturn - unless, the mortgage market allows others to step in.

 

This guy Pigley is a housebuilder, highly suprising that he is talking the market up is it?

Also he may have got it right in the past from luck (lots of others did aswell) and the fact that we were talking about repetitive cycles/bubbles.

Alot of books I've been reading recently talk of a 'superbubble', which is where we got to in 2007 after a number of normal bubbles. A super bubble will be followed by a super correction, we have not seen that yet.

Also unemployment is going to rise, this will give plenty of opportunities to buy distressed properties in the near future.

The most astute property investor I know (now a tax exile in Dubai), who I spoke to to today is not buying anything in the UK at the moment. Or Dubai, as thats tanking BIG TIME

Anyway, those people who are buying now are on the wrong part of the graph yet and will live to regret it. Not only because their property will lose more than 5% yet, but because they will find renting it out will become more difficult as unemployment rises.

Don't worry Pete, I will ring the bell when we are at the bottom, I wouldn't let you miss out

 

Lewis' blatent trolling really is getting tiresome now!!

While most people think house prices are rising, Lewis bangs on about crashing prices. Now that most people agree prices will keep falling, so Lewis has decided to change his tune so that he can provoke people.

Time to ban Lewis! Bring back infractions!!!!

 

Deep Singh:-

I'm hoping that I haven't missed the boat ..... I'm hoping what we are seeing is a mini bubble and it will pop after a few months - but I'm really not too sure this time?

It's cash buyers who are buying - rather than keep their money in the bank.

The Government here, and across the world, are desperately trying to get people to borrow and spend (unlike in other recessions) ....... money will be so cheap that everyone will start borrowing and spending again and another bubble will appear (the SUPER bubble maybe?).

 

I'll ring it again , a month later, just in case he's on "Snooze".

 

 

I'm a cash buyer, and I'm sitting on my hands. Nothing like value yet IMHO.

 

I'm sitting on my hands too ....... but they are getting fidgetty - seeing properties selling when you wish they would drop further

 

But you failed to mention that they increased by over £4000 the month before.....Hmm, i wonder why

Look at the facts before posting such rubbish theories about annualised falls

Just to put some realism back in the frame, the halifax peak house price was recorded in Aug 2007 @ £199,770. The Feb 2009 figure is at £160,327 so simple maths (£160,327/199,770) = 19.75% down from peak

Aug 2007 - Feb 2009 = 18 months. Simple maths again = 19.75/18 = 1.1

So house prices are falling at an average of 1.1% per month, extrapolate this over 12mths and you will find that is no-where near 27.6%

If you want to argue, at least have something to back it up with

House prices are higher now than they were back in December, yes i agree it's more than likely just a blip but still, fact is fact and claims of 20-30% falls for this year look miles off just now.

 

Are you associating average house price with average wage?

If so, why?

Surely you do not expect the average couple with a 2x£26k joint income to be able to afford 2 average homes or if put together a 5/6 bed mini mansion.

Average wage should be able to buy a 1/2 bed flat, an average couple income should be able to buy the typical average 3bed SD.

No way are we going anywhere near the scenario of 3.5x singular £26k salary for average house price, we are no where near that and i suspect if we do, then everyone with a decent salary will be buying multiple homes and start the whole crazy thing off again.

 

In response to the 2 replies above.

1. My figure was working forwards, not backwards. 2.3% x 12 = 27.6%. Now it's fair comment to say that the figure for the next 12 months is unknown.

2. Why am I basing my figures on 3.5x salary? Why not? It seems the FSA is going to prevent people borrowing more than 3x there salaries.

Mortgages to be capped at three times salary
08:03 | 16.03.09
Home buyers will be prevented from borrowing more than three times their annual salaries under new mortgage rules to be announced this week.

As part of a wide-ranging package of measures for banking regulation, Lord Turner, the chairman of the Financial Services Authority, will also declare a ban on 100% mortgages.

In all but the most exceptional circumstances, it will become 'normal practice' for loans to be limited to a maximum of three times the borrower’s salary.

Prospective home owners will have to provide a deposit of at least 5%, with many banks and building societies expected to ask for even larger amounts.

The move is in response to Gordon Brown’s request last month that the FSA look into banning risky mortgage lending.

Daily Telegraph

 

I suspect that this will be based on 3x joint salary if it ever gets approval.

The 5% deposit idea can be manipulated by the lenders by offering 95% secured, 5% unsecured, just like the way northern rock used to do there 125% mortgages, 95% being secured, 30% unsecured.

Will wait and see what comes from these plans

 

Devil is in the detail I'll admit that! I think most people will admit that the days of 100%+ mortgages, secured or not, are over though?

I just wonder how far this has already gone? The NR mortgage calc is already showing me as just under 3.5x my salary vs the amount borrowable. Sign of the times maybe?

 

Personally I doubt it, maybe for a few years, but peoples financial memory is pretty short, we will all be back here in another 15 years time

once all the "froth" has disappeared from the worlds economies, it will all start up again

ultimately the desire and need to make "easy money" pushing paper around outweighs the desire to regulate it

 

well if he brings in 3.5 salary that should just about kill the property market altogether so your bargains may just appear

 

Too much depends upon house prices holding up that any Government would do anything to ensure solid prices - especially in the run-up to an Election.

I see that Rightmove have reported an increase in asking prices.

Just 30 minutes ago an Estate Agent rang me and asked if I wished to put any offers in on the properties I viewed yesterday ..... I said we liked one bungalow, she asked if we wanted to offer ........ this was a £250k property.

I will think about an offer I said. "Well, just to let you know, they have turned down an offer of £240k" !!!!!!! WTF? I was only, maybe, if the wind was in the right direction and there was a pot of gold in the garage, going to put an offer in of around £200k!

I would say, from recent experience, that the market is looking up. Sadly

 

Maybe I should have said in the medium term. I have no doubt that in years to come we will be here again. But not for a good few years yet.

 

So how many years do you guys estimate for the average price to match or overtake 2007s prices?

 

thats what makes the housing market tough to call -- especially if you have a property in a good location, it doesn't take much to build up pressure

with cars -- well another one will be along

but property, if someone got it and won't sell to you for a "reasonable price" your shafted

thats why property/land is such a good investment, coz they dont make it anymore

 

Nobody can answer that. Looking into the 'immmediate' future though ie next 18 months or so, we will see only falls (trend). Then there must be a period of stagnation, only then can rises happen.

So, anywhere from 2 years to eternity

 

effects can be very localised

property in central London is underpinned by the financial sectors performance, crazy prices for houses in NHG are a direct result of City Bonuses

 

Of course, that could also be read as a house still on the market
( how long has it been for sale Pete? ) and an EA pushing the price for his seller.

 

It has been on the market for a while ... it 'was' £275k ... the vendor, as we were looking around said how she thought it was a disgrace that it had to be dropped to a 'pathetic' £250k ....

And, guess what? Looking at the prices paid it transpires that she bought the place for £225k at the PEAK in 2007!!! Now, she has 'done it up' - but I think she should take the £240k giving her a £15k 'profit' ........ however, house are selling now - so, maybe, she is wise to hold out for the full £250k?

Of course the EA may be 'making up' the offer? I'm sure their lack of guilt would allow them to tell a porkie or 6!!

 

< Still not down to 2004 prices >

- which are still un natural high in the present market place

 

The reports are now starting to filter through of house price rises!

Prices rising 'at top and bottom' of UK housing market » Housing » 24dash.com

 

Where did the figures come from? Oh The National Association of Estate Agents, and of course, they have no vested interest in talking up the market have they? Rightmove had 57% fewer properties on the market in Feb, compared to Feb 08. Why do you think that is? The FSA may well be limiting mortgages to 3.5x salary, what will that do to house prices? As someone fortunate enough to be bringing in over twice the national average, I will "only" be able to borrow 180k'ish. With falling values meaning any equity to top that up is reducing, even someone in my postion wouldn't be able to afford a 3 bed semi in a decent area in the South East. Do you still think prices are going to go up? If Mr Average can't borrow enough, and can't save enough for a 40% deposit, prices will have to come down. Or the market stops. Totally.

To shed some light on how poor that article is it says

" The figures come the day after property website Rightmove said house prices rose for the second month in a row during March as new sellers continued to be unrealistic about how much their homes are worth "

If you actually read the Rightmove report is says that the ASKING price rose for the second month in a row

I could ask £10k for my 52 plate Yaris today, then 11k in April. Wahey, 2nd hand Yaris prices are on the up! Champers all round. In another 36 months I can sell it and have a deposit for a house.

To lighten the tone a bit, here's a bit from todays Times

'Sellers are impossible to deal with because they are so embittered at having to offer what they see as ludicrous "discounts" on their property, and are intensely stressed out by the pressure of not giving away personal information, such as the fact that they are getting divorced, or are pregnant, in case purchasers play in their need to sell.

I recently viewed a house in the West Midlands - described euphemistically as 'South Staffordhsire' in the literature - and, after being made to wait for half an hour, was required to inspect it with a couple, presumably in an attempt to create the impression of demand and spark a bidding war. In fact, all that happened is that we conferred, agreeing that the house was ludicrously overpriced and the estate agent a tosser.

Here's some news for those in the property trade: things have changed. The few buyers out there don't want to hear about "elegance", "luxury" and "comfort". The only phrases we're interested in are "massively reduced" and "heavy discount".'


The next set of figures from Nationwide/Halifax are out soon. Let's see what they say eh?

 

Stop beating about the bush mate!

Great post

D

 

Just shifted my house for slightly more than I paid for it in early 2006.

What a relief!

 

Shock horror ,some "Gimp" in the paper today saying interest rates may go up in the Autumn to prevent Inflation !!!!!!

It really is a case of believe what you like ,whichever "suits you Sir "....