House Prices Now At 2004 Levels
 

House prices 'fall to 2004 level'

The average price of a UK home has fallen to levels not seen since August 2004, according to the Halifax.

Prices declined by 2.2% in December, to bring the average cost down to £159,896, the lender said.

For 2008 as a whole, prices fell 16.2%, the biggest annual decline since Halifax began keeping records in 1983.

With further falls to come this year of around 15%.

Nationwide has said that it will not pass on any further interest rate cuts .... and Bankers state that lending will be harder to get through 2009 than it was in 2008!

Personally, the lower property prices fall, the happier I will be :D

So my house is now worth exactly what I paid for it then :cry:

Look on the bright side.. your house is still worth what you paid for it :luxhello:

Hadn't thought of it like that ;)

Still twice as much as they were in 2000ish though.

They need to fall about 35% total imo to be 'affordable' in the current climate.

Got a long way to fall yet :wonder:

http://www.tutor2u.net/blog/files/house_prices_feb.gif

http://www.economicshelp.org/uploade...erm-727829.jpg

TX.

BTW I remember reading that the av house price is guesstimated to be £600k+ in 2021 ...

Those that have been holding off buying for 10yrs or so waiting for the crash better judge it just right!

TX.

The bottom is going to last for 5 years or more ............. I can't see there being a hurry to buy!

I predicted this massive correction a couple of years ago - we are now at values last seen over 4 years ago ...........................

Pete, you "predicted" it in 2000 and every year since :lol1:

Waiting 8 years to be right, you could have bought and sold on the rise and before the fall and already cleaned up like i did if you'd been more on the ball ;)

Now you'll just be scrabbling around for crappy repo's along with every other chancer :D

Looking at YOY falls, the decline increased towards the back end of 2008. I predict another 20% off this year, as repo's kick in, caused by rising enemployment and lack off affordable mortgages.

Maybe the bottom of the market will come in 2010. But I doubt it. We could see > 50% off peak by the end of 2010.

I'll be looking to buy post 2010, but will want to see about 6 months worth of flat house prices before jumping in.

Same here, i won't be buying again for at least 2-3 years.

"I predicted this massive correction a couple of years ago"

This garbage is so pathetic it borders on the offensive - which of course is the whole idea.

How these trolls get away with it is beyond me.

it doesn't matter how much anyone's house is worth, as long as the can afford the payments - it's not a liquid asset!

it's not been in most peoples' interests for properties to go up in value - the more yours goes up, the more a) you kid yourself you're better off (you're not) and b) the bigger the gap to a bigger house should you have aspirations on trading up one day.

Likewise.

TBH who cares unless you are being forced to sell it ???

If you have bought a house in the last couple of years, and unless you have a very short time to go on the mortgage, it will be worth more than you paid for it when the mortgage ends, even taking into account the interest you have paid.

Then minus what it would have cost you to rent a house for the last 25 years, which would have been the alternative as you have to live somewhere, and you're even more on top.

Property is one thing that it is very hard to lose money on as a long term investment. Short term I agree that people arent going to be able to make a quick buck like they have done in the last few years just by buying a house and sitting on it and reselling 6 months later.

The Property Ladder programmes illustrate the decline perfectly. 12+ months ago people were kidding themselves that they had 'added value' by doing places up ..... when, in reality, all they were seeing was the climb of the general house prices!

The later programmes are showing that people are now making losses very easily ...... now is not a good time to buy and 'do up to sell' ...... it could, however, be a good time to buy if you want to keep for the long term.

People in the Btl market? :wonder:


I wonder when the "average" house will be 3.5x the "average" salary?

Depends on where you live in the country, Up here in Aberdeen we have seen around a 2.1% fall from its peak.

So nothing to shout home about and levels are back at Sept 2007:lol1:

Factor in how much you may have blown in rent and compare it against the 2.1% the houses have generally fallen by, then its not all bad news for everyone.

So much variation all around the UK, its stupid to state prices have fallen back to 2004 as a whole, Not you PSL, the press in general.

What's the average salary?

£32,000?

3.5x = £112,000

At a LTV of 90% ... that would put the average house price at about £125,000 - so, quite a way to fall yet then?

Should an average singular wage be enough to afford an average house or is the theory flawed?

I personally think a singular average wage should buy a 2bed flat and a couples annual wage should buy the average home.

Average annual income is reported to be £37k, multiply this by 3.5x and you get £130k, add the 10% deposit they will have saved and house prices should be around £145k.

C&G are currently still offering 5x joint so lending is not being restricted much.

£32k is indeed the average salary of a male in FT work however as a whole counting the PT workers and lower paid female workers this drops back to £26k as an average.

Recent report by ONS that surveyed just over 20m employees P60 so data i would say is accurate.

It was £24,908 in April 08 so £26k sounds about right.

So that means average house price needs to be about £100k to be 3.5x salary + 10% down.

Interesting quote here:-

"Forecast change in house prices across the UK for 2009:

London - 12.2%

South East - 9.6%

South West - 8.4%

Yorkshire - 10.5%

East - 11.6%

West Midlands - 9.6%

East Midlands - 9.4%

North West - 10.1%

North - 5.9%

Scotland - 4.6%

Wales - 13.8%

Northern Ireland - 31.6%

UK - 11.0% "

Source: Knight Frank

Surely if they drop below a certain level, landlords are just going to start buying everything in sight again.

Average salary details found here..

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloa...08_work_la.pdf

Download table 7.7

Very good as it shows you PT/FT, female, male, and also shows you by individual towns, cities and areas as a whole.

20m or so jobs analysed so i would say a pretty good indicator

Cookstar - Depends upon the rental sector .... that is now swamped and rents are falling.

No point at all in buying a depreciating asset and leaving it empty while it sucks your bank account dry!

+1 :D

I think you're in for a surprise shortly. I've been keeping a close eye on it and Flats are down at least 10% from what I've seen. If its not cheaper, its not selling.

Biggest reduction I've seen on a house is fixed price of £400k down to £350k and its still not selling. Nice house, good location aswell.

Last quarter selling prices will be published this month, which will make interesting reading.

Oil at $40 a barrel aint going to help.

Houses/flats in London that were on for 450k a year ago are not selling for 300k now...

I have my eye on a property which was placed on the market at an asking price of £349,950 in July 2008.

It is now on at £209,950 .... and has been for about 5 weeks now, not sold - another agent has now been employed in a desperate attempt to sell it ... probate sale.

just 6 months ago it would have been snapped up at £209,950 if not more - it shows the sign of the times that it sits there, empty. It is generating interest as it is nicely situated in an expensive part of the UK .... but, it will only sell if a low offer is accepted.