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I really think the difference in cases vs deaths is just down to testing in the early months. In the early months, the true number of cases was far more than what the testing revealed. People are now being tested even when they are asymptomatic and therefore the number of asymptomatic cases has also risen.
I understand that; Given no testing, I was hypothetically talking about what the real case numbers were back in May. Has to be in excess 1000 per million per week.
Which leads me to wonder that if May was 1000+ per million, the period during lockdowns with low cases must also be a lot higher. What this means is the number of carriers did not reduce enough via quarantine, so when we came out of lockdown there were still too many existing carriers going into environments that promoted exponential spreading.
That’s likely why the initial lockdowns have not worked.
We need to do another ‘reset’. Or strict long term lockdown for the vulnerable and throw caution to the wind for everyone else.
I understand that; Given no testing, I was hypothetically talking about what the real case numbers were back in May. Has to be in excess 1000 per million per week.
Which leads me to wonder that if May was 1000+ per million, the period during lockdowns with low cases must also be a lot higher. What this means is the number of carriers did not reduce enough via quarantine, so when we came out of lockdown there were still too many existing carriers going into environments that promoted exponential spreading.
That’s likely why the initial lockdowns have not worked.
We need to do another ‘reset’. Or strict long term lockdown for the vulnerable and throw caution to the wind for everyone else.
I think a big part of the problem was summer holidays, with masses of people from all over Europe descending on holiday resorts in Spain and partying like it was 2019!
New Zealand did an awsome job with a fire-break lockdown where pretty much nobody was alowed to leave the home for three weeks and everyone entering the country had to have two weeks quaratine. After the lockdown there, the country could return to normal and has seen very few cases. Many pacific islands have completely closed the borders and have still never had a single case.
Its clear in the UK, the lack of testing and the failure of the track and trace system is continuing to have a servere negative effect as you can see in the graphs above, the rate of rise of cases in the UK compared to the other countries means they have again missed the boat and the second wave is hitting the UK harder than other countries.
In Germany, the level of testing was always second to none, but even here, the capacity compared to the spring has grown by a huge amount, so they really have a good insight into what the virus is doing. Yes the cases are climbing at a worrying rate, but the hospitals are not filling up yet at the rate they were in the 1st wave and Angie has again reacted pretty quickly and decisively and I'm confident Germany will have things back under control reasonably quickly. The German track and trace system is also working very well. My boss had a contact with an infected person last Thursday and was already in quaratine on Saturday. It is almost certain he could not have infected anyone at work on the Friday due to the gestation period and he anyway had to wait 5 days from the contact before he could be tested, so he'll probably only get the results tomorrow or Friday. As second level contacts, the colleagues at work who had contact with him on Friday have all been informed to be extra cautious in case of the development of even minor symptoms! I also got the first alert on the Corona Warn App this week, that I'd had a low risk contact (large distance or short contact) with someone later diagnosed with Corona (not my boss) - The app informed me no action was necessary due to the low risk.
I think a big part of the problem was summer holidays, with masses of people from all over Europe descending on holiday resorts in Spain and partying like it was 2019!
Spain’s major problem areas are across the North East. Navarra and Aragón are not main holiday resorts; They blame migrants in the vineyards. Basque is similar. Madrid is the other area which is mainly due to its population density.
The Costas don’t have much of issue barring isolated outbreaks and unlike the other areas have yet to lock down!
Last edited by ALi-B; 28 October 2020 at 09:15 PM.
And a big part of this problem is not the ‘partying’. It’s total misunderstanding of the way it spreads;
One: Messing with masks, pulling it into your neck, putting it in pockets, on tables etc.
And
Two: Staying in enclosed areas for prolonged periods be it mask or no mask; Risk of transmission is massively greater in enclosed areas, worse when badly ventilated or with recirculated air conditioning. Evidence supporting this is now starting to filter out into the public domain. Because of this, Non-essential enclosed areas must be closed, and no visitors inside households. The latter is pretty rife in spain on weekends (Sundays = family+friends day ) and probably the real reason for spread.
Spain’s major problem areas are across the North East. Navarra and Aragón are not main holiday resorts; They blame migrants in the vineyards. Basque is similar. Madrid is the other area which is mainly due to its population density.
The Costas don’t have much of issue barring isolated outbreaks and unlike the other areas have yet to lock down!
Its more the holidaymakers transmitting it to each other in that location rather than between locals and holidaymakers. There is very little interaction between the locals and holidaymakers in holiday resorts. Certainly in my local area here in Germany, almost all the cases at the start of the second wave were reported as people returning from holidays. Thankfully Germany implemented testing at airports, so many cases were caught early which is certainly a big reason why Germany is behind the wave this time around, although some get through the net and some people stupidly broke quarantine rules
We had a case here where a family returned from the Balkans then the teenage daughter broke quarantine rules and went to a birthday party and infected six others which then caused the closing of four schools and a total of 60 odd other people in two weeks quarantine! The family were fined for breaking the quarantine rules! Its only really in the last two weeks or so that the number of infections from local transmission have started to outnumber the cases from people returning from foreign travel, which pretty much coincides with the end of the holiday season.
Germany is behind the wave this time around, although some get through the net and some people stupidly broke quarantine rules
And a result of that Germany is heading the same way as the rest of Europe (As is Sweden which is spiking out of control at the same rate).
The biggest problem in Spain is far far too much mingling indoors; This is why parts of Spain that drop cool from September onwards means out door semi enclosed terrazas are no longer used, or all of the toldos (side canopies) are drawn all the way down (some modern ones are impressively air-tight...but bad for fresh air ventilation). The Spanish are wusses if temps drop below 20c so most will be indoor areas be it in a family home or restaurant of which neither have any proper ventilation. So couple this with traditional weekend social rituals this was inevitable.
The masks seem to have attracted complacency in so far as distancing and ventilation; It just buys time.
Anyway, Uk lockdown to be announced in about 15 to 30mins
BBC tonight just interviewed “professor lockdown” you know, the guy who broke lockdown rules for a extra marital affair and whose model coding was branded as a buggy mess by software programmers.
I suppose I can just spend the next few months being angry and depressed whilst dwelling on things totally out of my powers of control. Honestly there’s worse things in my life that I’ve had to deal with.
Nah, I’ll just carry on being sarcastic and cynical.
I suppose I can just spend the next few months being angry and depressed whilst dwelling on things totally out of my powers of control. Honestly there’s worse things in my life that I’ve had to deal with.
Nah, I’ll just carry on being sarcastic and cynical.
lots of good folk are passing away up here, families are devastated. Don’t be angry, depressed sarcastic cynical just stop making a joke out of what is happening up here. Cheers
And you think my family hasn’t been devastated because I post sarcastic comments?
Two words...chemotherapy delayed. You can guess the outcome of that.
What on Earth are you on about? I don’t think anything about anyones family. I think about my own family and friends. I don’t wish harm to ANYONE but I take exception to you saying thanks you filthy scousers. This virus has ravaged lots of areas. I’m not going to carry on this conversation with an utter fool. Take care.
What on Earth are you on about? I don’t think anything about anyones family. I think about my own family and friends. I don’t wish harm to ANYONE but I take exception to you saying thanks you filthy scousers. This virus has ravaged lots of areas. I’m not going to carry on this conversation with an utter fool. Take care.
Filthy scousers was sarcasm. Look at the current case data...the darker the red the worse it is:
Something has gone on up there that needs sorting. End of.
Burnham can rant and rave all he likes on getting extra financial aid. But that won’t change what’s going on.
Granted I could have said thanks to the filthy bunch up in North East to attribute to those that don’t have purple wheelie bins but the sentiment is the same;It’s still a sarcastic dig towards the prats going around thinking that whatever it is they are doing is fine. And that does not specifically mean its one particular area, although it’s hard to ignore the data that shows where cases are concentrated; Clearly there’s a bunch of c**ts in London and Cardiff too.
Last edited by ALi-B; 01 November 2020 at 12:13 PM.
Austria is going into a full lockdown from tomorrow as their partial lockdown since the end of October has not had the desired results. They are also planning a full population test to discover the real number of asymptomatic cases.
In Germany, the cases seem to have plateaued over the last two weeks, hopefully we'll see a drop again in the coming weeks. The region where I am was behind the national curve, so has already seen a fall in cases. The biggest problem here is actually the buses which are packed full of school kids in the mornings along with other commuters. They really need to be putting on extra buses to ensure travelers can maintain social distancing.
Austria is going into a full lockdown from tomorrow as their partial lockdown since the end of October has not had the desired results. They are also planning a full population test to discover the real number of asymptomatic cases.
In Germany, the cases seem to have plateaued over the last two weeks, hopefully we'll see a drop again in the coming weeks. The region where I am was behind the national curve, so has already seen a fall in cases. The biggest problem here is actually the buses which are packed full of school kids in the mornings along with other commuters. They really need to be putting on extra buses to ensure travelers can maintain social distancing.
According to Reuters, Merkel will introduce more stringent measures shortly.
Amensty allege Belgium just let their elderly die due to covid
Amensty allege Belgium just let their elderly die due to covid
I find it quite shameful at the level of under-reporting of the situation in Belgium by sections of the British media. A blatant example is the BBC which totally omits Belgium from their graphs when comparing the UK with other EU countries.
Empress Nicola the 1st of Scotland, has really surpassed herself today with her level of stupidity.
Every county surrounding North Ayrshire will be on level 4 lockdown from Friday. Just what she expects from that, shows just how delusional she is.
What will actually happen is simple. It will force people in the surrounding counties of Renfrewshire, East Ayrshire, and South Ayrshire to head to North Ayrshire for whatever shopping they can no longer do in their own counties. The result will be the complete opposite what she is actually trying to achieve.
Obviously she said people are not allowed to do this, but who'd going to stop them?
Why is this headline news on every outlet?
Today it was headline news that 100 people had died as a result of this new virus since it was identified. (of course very sad for those affected). Most of those who died had underlying medical problems and would have struggled with the flu etc.
Did you know that 260,000 people die in China each year as a result of road accidents? That's over 700 per day.
Can you imagine the headlines if the virus was killing 700 per day!
I'm completely on board with the controls and treatments but please stop the tabloid panicked wording for this and even less important health issues.
28 October 2020, 05:54 PM
