hodgy0_2

Jos, obviously I was being rhetorical

I was always cool :-)


I laughed at those losers then as a laugh at brexiteers now

SouthWalesSam

iTrader: (1)

hodgy0_2

Joz is reliably funny

joz8968

iTrader: (13)

hodgy0_2

just a heads up on this

May's plan to use "Mutual Recognition" as a basis of a deep and special relationship with the EU as already been described as nonsense by the EU - it would give rights to the UK that no member of that EU enjoys

delusional to think the EU would allow this

good analysis of this from an EU law professor

http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/...y-entails.html

Meanwhile Airbus a Vauxhall are seriously looking at re-evaluating their investments in the UK

and as mentioned by me last year - Phil Hammonds confirms that unless an Open Skies agreement can negotiated Airlines will not be able to offer tickets/fights from this April - to the EU or the US

(and please don't spout nonsense about "well the EU won't be able to fly over the UK, they will - overfly rights and landing rights are governed by international agreements, we are signatories as part of the EU - when we leave, our rights go, but the EU's still exist )

dpb

Old (and not so old ) brexit codgers will out with their anti aircraft guns !

Tidgy

Glad to see your peddling out of date info, Airbus has already reviewed and are putting in a new facility near RR in derby.

https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/new...s-open-1254527

Jobs are already poping up being advertised.

Yet again speculation and assumption of disaster proven wrong again

ALi-B

iTrader: (1)

Vauxhall are finished regardless of what happens in the UK. If you have ever looked at the current Astra J, Corsa E, Insignia etc...they are all rehashes of cars that are between 9 and 12 years old, like Rover before them they are having to make do with refreshing aging platforms, GM Europe were struggling for decades whilst GM's US and Australian operations have been consolidating brands and production shutting down plants as part of their post bankruptcy reorganisations ; No Holdens made in Australia anymore and they have announced factory closures in South Korea. Peugeot GM Europe's new owner will be seen to do the same to bring the brand within to their own facilities, of which closed in the UK in 2006.

To use this loss-making company as a example for argument that remaining in the EU would guarantee the protection of GM Europe's UK production is really clutching at straws. Vauxhall's factories have been closed and threatened with closure before any hint of a referendum, and will continue to be threatened and closed under Peugeot.

hodgy0_2

I am not making this "loss making group" an example that remaining in the EU would protect it

I am making the point that Peugeot, Airbus et al will make investments decisions re the UK based on our competitiveness and cost of doing business in the UK as opposed to elsewhere

that is true before the referendum and will be true post referendum

but the simple fact is that leaving the SM and CU will increase costs to business - as the "friction" to trade will increase, this has been stated by the UK and the EU so not really a controversial point

Businesses will make decisions based on that simple fact

BMWhere?

They are opening a small office to aid procurement and support with RR, there won't be anything built there, not really a massive investment for the likes of Airbus.

Meanwhile, Airbus are reviewing their UK supply chain with regards to Brexit. This week, they announced they are now stockpiling items from UK suppliers as they fear new customs control will interrupt the JIT supply chain and delay production. This will of course add costs and will affect the competitiveness of UK suppliers which may ultimately lead to lost contracts when it comes to supply contract renewal time.

As for Airbus' own manufacturing facilities in the UK, they are also under review regarding Brexit and investment is on hold. The satellite facilities (formerly Astrium) will probably be OK and the UK is likely to remain a contributor to ESA and along with SSTL will continue to receive contracts from ESA under their geo-return policy. The Airbus wing manufacturing however has long been under threat since BAE Systems sold their Airbus stake. The Airbus factory in Bremen is also currently short of work and also have wing manufacturing on the site, so there is a very good chance that the UK production will be phased out and moved to Bremen (or possibly Hamburg).

Airbus is internally in a bit of a mess at the moment because of the A400M transporter and are looking to save costs wherever possible. Additional costs and complications due to Brexit will not be welcomed by Airbus at the moment and the threat to jobs in the UK both at Airbus own manufacturing and the independent supply chain is very real! This isn't something I've read in the press, this is my first hand knowledge of the aviation industry!


Further, as Hodgy pointed out, the boss of PSA and ergo Vauxhall/Opel gave an interview to media at the Geneva autosalon this week where he didn't mince his words regarding Brexit and the fact that they will not be investing in the UK until they have a clear view of what Brexit means, and that as much as they want to remain in the UK, a bad Brexit deal will mean closure of Vauxhall facilities in the UK!

Its also been pointed out this week, that UK vehicle type approval will no longer mean EU type approval. That means the UK manufacturers will have to have an official importer in the EU who will be responsible for the EU vehicle type approval - as is currently the case with IM importing Subaru's to the UK. That might be little more than an annoying formality for the few true UK manufacturers, but the likes of Nissan, Honda, Ford, Mini, JLR etc. may well be enough to convince them to pull out of the UK - Many of the manufacturers already have other facilities in the EU, so moving may not be such a problem as many Brexiteers think. They will probably not move existing production, but as each model line is revised, the production could be moved gradually to EU facilities.

Add to that, the Conservatives have never given two ****s about manufacturing jobs in the UK, you can rest assured they won't be doing much to protect those industries. They only care about protecting the services industry which makes up the majority of the UK economy!

ALi-B

iTrader: (1)

Yes. According to Peugeot's CEO (Carlos Tavares), Ellesmere Port’s manufacturing costs are double that of PSA’s Sochaux factory in France. Remaining in the EU will not change that.

It's closing regardless of any CU or SM agreement (once the contractural obligations expire).

Really, you shouldn't have mentioned Vauxhall; Highlighting basket cases as part of a critique just undermines your core points.

ALi-B

iTrader: (1)

No government of the past few decades has cared. Rest assured the gradual decimation will continue regardless.

hodgy0_2

yes, to a point I agree ALi-b

Vauxhall / Elsmere were probably doomed anyway, Brexit will not have helped though

Luton though?

in or out of the EU does not change under lying "physics" of trade - the harder it is to trade with the EU the less investment there will be from companies that require trade with the EU

and I am also sure that crap badly run companies will blame Brexit for failures of management / bankruptcy

hodgy0_2

I think this is the point - there will be no "big bang" announcement by any company be it Nissan, Toyota, Ford, Honda and airbus Rolls Royce

they will just re allocated investment into new plants / models / production lines to countries with better trading conditions - sweat whatever assets they have in the UK


and in a few years we all will all say "ooh do you remember when we used to make cars and aeroplanes"

ALi-B

iTrader: (1)

Luton as far as I'm aware just makes the Vauxhall/Opel badged vans and cannot make high-top variants. As we know the van is shared between Renault, Nissan and Fiat. So there is a large production demand shared between the two assembly plants despite the UK plant only making the Vauxhall/Opel variants. For the short term Luton is probably OK as a lot of the supply chain is also UK based and it's already had funds invested in to make the latest Vivaro, However, PSA's conflict of interest with the Expert/Boxer, Luton will probably close when the current Vivaro is replaced/updated. It is said to be contracted 'till 2025, that could change though.

There is a highly remote chance that when Renault replace their Traffic, Vauxhall/Opel could continue making a facelift of the old van at Luton using PSA powertrains, ending up with a similar situation to Saab using defunct Vectra platforms, Daewoo (what was) rehashing old tooling, or even Rover with the 45 being based on a long defunct Civic MA. I'd seriously doubt it would happen unless the top brass make the decisions over a boozy lunch!


Of course if it's harder to make and sell stuff here then it's going to go. Same with anything, unless the government pulls a rabbit out of the hat with some fancy perk (I won't hold my breath on that).

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Just out of interest, how do you Remoaners view the announcment of the new factory to build trains, owned by Siemens, announced for Goole?

Martin2005

It's great news


How do you view it? Bloody Germans??

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Great news too...but I wondered what negative slant your lot would manage to give it?

After all, that sort of thing was supposed to be going to be impossible post brexit?

Tidgy

they will put a negative slant on anything to try to prove they told people so.

neil-h

Back again

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Not arguing.
Can you not understand the difference? Still?
You really must be soft.

neil-h

I’m not entirely sure you even understand the meaning of the word.

Mr Fuji

Of course it's good news, but against the tide of downsides, it hardly justifies what Brexit will deliver, does it?

mrtheedge2u2

That is like going to a casino with 1000 quid. losing, and then on your last chip winning 25 quid and walking out and telling everyone you won.

dpb

Still, we've given unelected Junker the finger , which is the primary consideration amongst brexiters

BMWhere?

https://www.google.de/amp/s/www.bbc....umber-43245227

Obviously it's good news, but it makes clear business sense with a view to Brexit. The factory is for manufacturing trains for UK customers. If they were manufactured in Germany post Brexit, then they would be subject to import tariffs, so would certainly be better to build them in the UK. The deal however is not guaranteed and is subject to additional large orders for new trains. If the number of orders is too small then it won't be worth the investment and the trains that have been ordered will be built somewhere else!

As others have said, it's a small drop off good news in a shower of bad news! Nobody ever claimed the won't be some winners from Brexit, but the losers will far outweigh the winners!

Tidgy

as far as i can tell 99% of the bad news stories are people moaning whinging or handing our dire warnings. the moaners are totality reliant on speculation for how bad things will be. lets wait and see what actually happens in the real world eh

mrtheedge2u2

If it goes well post-Brexit I will be happy for the UK (my family still live there) but if it goes horribly wrong I do hope all the leave voters don't start whining with "oh we were lied to", "we didn't know", "it's the governments fault" etc etc.

Funny thing is that my parents both voted to leave but now they talk more and more about retiring to Holland to be nearer me etc. They make out that they do it to be closer to me but they then openly admit they think they made a mistake voting to leave.

^Qwerty^

I'm not so sure, the air industry is complex to say the least. Example - whilst our ATCO licences are issued by the CAA, they are effectively regulated by the EU and consequently the ECJ. That being the case, whilst we might have signed up to a open skies agreement, I don't know how things will work if we don't have any signed off/qualified ATCO services. Not many airlines would want to fly ***** nilly over the UK without any ATCO services.

Finding the necessary information online is difficult to say the least and you end up going down rabbit holes of Euro Control and EASA.

Have a gander at this and see what you think - http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-conte...R_0001&from=EN

madscoob

iTrader: (3)

ime not a remoaner, but its obvious more corperations will follow suit, avoiding import taxes,
if you know anything about big buisness you will know buisnesses shaft local councils for grants/lower rates etc then move on when the deal ends
big corps are no different THEY JUST DO IT TO COUNTRIES