Are they? Are they really?

After all the panic of shares falling (made to fall by very big world traders) shares are rising again today, just like they did yesterday.

People need to understand that there are huge players in the stock market, who seize on opportunities like these to make Billions in profit. There was no need for all the panic selling on Friday morning, other than to play the system.

I won't make Billions (unfortunately), but I did take the opportunity to buy some shares myself on Monday.

 

Just because we haven't heard in the press/news, doesn't mean there isn't a framework already in place.

First step is to replace Cameron

Appoint cabinet members after new PM announced

Collate the necessary bodies to detail fill the framework

Trigger article 50

Enter into negotiations with all the world, who have expressed interest in trading directly with UK

Negotiate terms with EU

 

What right did the EU have to exclude Cameron from the breakfast meeting? We are still fully paid up members and you'd hope that £100m odd a week would get you decent fry-up?


David

 

and if Vodafone move their HQ, that will effect Newbury and not in a good way

 

You make it sound like if you aren't in the EU you can't do business within Europe. Strange how China, India or the US don't seem to have these worries yet as soon as the UK wants to leave it's the end of World.

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/cou...s/index_en.htm

So taking the above there is no reason why any other country can't have similar trade deals in place including the UK. The fact is the EU wants to punish us for daring to upset their Union and be as difficult as possible over reaching any trade deals.

Edit: I was too slow to reply so just pointing out the above was in reply to BMWhere's post on the panic reports of businesses leaving the UK.

 

It's exactly what it was, market makers playing their games and making vast fortunes and loving every minute of it. The City wasn't working last Thursday night in fear of the result it was fully expecting it despite what it publicly said and was open for business to exploit the situation to the maximum.

 

I don't think they really want to punish us, but they're not going to give us a better deal than anyone else in the bloc has - that's just common sense!

There is a significant difference between other countries who have dozens of trade deals already in place that have been negotiated over the last 40 or 50 years and the UK leaving the the common market and having zero trade deals. Each deal is dependent on what we can offer each partner in relation to what they can offer us. Each deal we make will be dependent on what we can offer through the deals we already have. Take the deal Switzerland recently signed with China after over a decade of negotiation. China gets full access to the Swiss market immediately and Switzerland will get limited access to the Chinese market in 10 years time! If we start from zero, it will really take over a generation before we can really start to have trade deals in place that are actually working for us. Yes, we come from a stronger standing than Switzerland, but without access to the single market, not much stronger!

Really, the only solution we have is EEA membership. We can maybe get a slightly better deal than Norway, but freedom of movement is going to be a requirement. The only hope we have on that, is that the EU reforms the freedom of movement rules for everyone, but I don't see that happening. Oh, and don't forget, even if we get a better deal than Norway, it will still be worse than what we currently have!

 

Look on the bright side Swati - at least when all the newly unemployed brits are standing in the que for benefits there won't be any pesky "foreigners" standing in front of them as they'll all have been sent "home", along with all the "Muslims" "Paki's" and "Syrians"


Oh...wait......




Its a disgrace. Give me a country full of "foreigners", "Muslims", "Paki's", and "Syrians" before one full of members of "Britain first"

 

Well I did say that I would give my involvement in this thread a break until after the vote and was all prepared to come back in and carry on the various discussions.

But frankly over the last 5 days this thread has just morphed from arguments between the choices and what would happen and now into speculation on the effects and who is to blame. It has degenerated into a full blown slagging match ( what a surprise) and mirrors the general mood of the nation.

I dont see any benefit in joining back in so carry on lads

 

Edited for accuracy

 

My point was though that frameworks and examples of how other countries outside of the EU get their deals done are there for all to see and that US example is only 3 years old. So when all the panickers scream there is no plan it's impossible the World is coming to an end it's nonsense.

Now if the EU say oh well the UK is nowhere near as interesting to deal with as the US in what you can offer us then the reply should be so what was the need to have us in the EU in the first place, if we didn't bring anything to the table in trade were we simply members to extract the fees from us and dump as many migrants on us as possible? The EU can't have it both ways.

 

Just to addto my last post.

Of course companies can you trade with whoever they want, but for multinational companies, locating manufacturing in different countries gives them access to trade under the trading conditions of that country.

So, many Chinese, Indian, Japanese, American etc. companies build factories in EU countries to enable them to manufacture and sell their goods in the EU without incurring additional tariffs.

Companies such as Honda and Nissan are prime examples that were tempted into the UK in the 80's (IIRC) for the very purpose of manufacturing cars within the EU block without incurring trade restrictions. Anyone who can remember trying to buy a Subaru in the 90's will know how the import restrictions on new cars limited the supply - there was an 18 month waiting list when I bought my first scooby. This is what started the whole gray import market of 2nd hand vehicles. In the 2000's the import quotas were removed, but there are still relatively high tariffs applied to Japanese car imports.

If we leave the single market, then we can no longer offer UK based manufacturers tariff free access to the EU (which is a much larger market than our own). Each company will do its own calculations based on UK vs EU market share and tariffs on whatever they're making, also taking into account labour costs, and take a decission to remain in the UK or to move to the EU - most likely Eastern Europe where labour cost would be lower! This is business economics! The longer we delay any decisions, then the more uncertainty we create for companies and the more likely they are to just leave anyway!

 

Vodafone relocating would completely ruin Newbury, there's very little else there these days.

 

I don't think anyone has said we can't trade, rather that we cannot have a deal as good as we have now. The US does not have the same access as we do, it's not a good example.


This has been the crux of the issue, Leave have promised some magical deal that is as good (or better) than the one we have now, but that simply is not going to happen. The divorce will be punitive, not because the EU wishes to punish us, but there are some absolutes which they will not budges on. Free movement is absolutely key to the EU ideal, so we either accept it and have full access like we do now, or we don't and don't get the access we have now.


It really is that simple.


However, for either option, we will still have to abide by most, if not all of their regulations, we will still have to pay, we will have no say in their direction.


It really was the most stupid decision we could have taken.

 

We free deal with Nigeria now , better start being nicer to them


I think we'll only get back on even footing ,once nigels seen it through - and eu collapses

 

that's why our democratically elected parliament would NEVER have let it happen

that's why despite Cameron playing a blinder by handing the sh1tty stick to his successor

his legacy will not be looked on that favourably imo

they say all political careers end in failure - and Cameron is another example of that in his case a massive one

 

It has just been mentioned on Daily Politics but was something that briefly popped up in my mind at some point.

Could Labour fight the 2020 election based on rejoining the E.U.?
This idea then asks the question as to whether this might carry water in an early General Election called after choosing the next Conservative leader.

I would never have expected my vote to go Labour, but with a new Labour leader and such a manifesto, I'd happiliy do it.

 

I think we have already touched on this (such a long thread!) that there will an election this year and someone could fight it on that basis.

 

I think the Lib Dems will fight the election on this

 

Obviously not an option with Corbyn, perhaps that's partly why they are so desperate to get him out ASAP. I doubt Labour have much chance at any election called after a new Conservative leader if running with a 'standard' manifesto.

 

Only Labour have a chance of success with it though

 

lib dem me too .

it may as well come down to an eu in / eu out party . Nobodies going to have a clue what any one party stands for anymore

 

The way things are now they'd get my vote too on an EU manifesto.
But success would depend on core voters and they don't have enough.

 

This could cause a problem, (putting UKIP to one side) if Conservative are the only (serious) party contesting a leave vote, and all other parties are contesting on a remain position, this could fraction remain voters such that the Conservative still win! Only if all the remain parties formed a kind of Grand Coalition against the Conservatives, then you can be sure to block the Leave vote!

 

Money talks!!!

You go into any board room meeting and say 'I propose that we are no longer going to make millions dealing with the UK because they voted out of the EU.'


Just see how long you last.

 

The BBC is now reporting (yet again) that access to the Free Market require free movement of labour

when is Alcazar going to get it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36659900

this especially is especially farcical as all the leading Brexiters are still saying access to the Single Market is vitally important

they are delusional

 

The other thing that has also been raised, it that now Cameron has stepped aside (once new leader appointed) that the new leader `could` turn round as say that they don't wish to activate article 50 without another referendum based on their tenure.

The other more likely outcome would be that once a new PM is announce, there could be calls for a snap general election. This would be the most likely outcome to either ignore the referendum result, or demand a second vote. Hence why Labour are killing themselves to get rid or Corbyn, as they know he'd never win an election.

The only spanner in the works would be if more people then vote UKIP. Then there would have to be another coalition.

 

For Alcazar - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36659900 Come on, let's hear what you have to say, I'm dying to hear it. What deal are we going to get?


What are you going to prefer, WTO, or same as now, but with less input?

 

Very unlikely to happen - I am aware of some of the services which are managed from there - due to the sensitivity of what is worked on, it can not be accessed outside the physical land borders of the UK.

 

yes interesting presumably it is a NOC

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/06...ation_from_uk/

"A relocation scenario is not thought to affect its UK office in Newbury, Berkshire. Earlier this year Vodafone was reported to be laying off hundreds of staff at that office"

the HQ is in London though and would move

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36656039