alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Corrected for honesty



Of course not....but at least I was given the chance to vote. Did YOU vote for Herr Juncker? Or in the election when he WAS voted in?

Your posts are getting desperate.

Admit it, OUT makes more sense than anything you, Martin or Geezer can come up with, all thinking together. Well...two of you thinking and Martin denying....

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

That's because no-one knows.

But what WILL be true is that WE will be able to control the numbers of those coming, unlike now.

ALi-B

iTrader: (1)

I've been doing a few basic figures - sans calculator, so they are rough figures...

2015 had 30.69million voters. We need over 15.345 million to go either way.

UKIP in 2015 got 3.88 million, so I can be fairly confident in stating that the exit camp will get at least that number of votes.

Which leaves 11.465 million more votes required to leave. Thats alot. Considering Labour and Conservative get about 20.6 million votes between them. Both are pro-EU parties, so even if half of Lab and Cons voters voted exit that still leaves teh exit camp 1.16 million votes short of winning.

The only spanner in the works is expected turn out should be alot higher, 2015 was 66%, I think its fair to says it going to be at least 10% more this year....but what side the previous non-voters are on is going to be the biggest decider.

I'm off the the bookies now

hodgy0_2

true - only if we negotiate a trade deal that will almost certainly not be as advantageous as the current one

you can't have your cake and eat it

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Edited for honesty.

You, like me, just don't know, so you need to stop posting supposition as fact

And as for cake, perhaps we'll see OUR bit shared more fairly once we aren't propping up basket-case economies any more?

neil-h

So you're ultimately being ruled by politicians you didn't vote for? Whether or not you have the choice is academic as far as I'm concerned if the end result (when given the choice) is unrepresentative of what the populous actually wants.

Nope it doesn't, I don't personally believe either option will have any drastic long term economic consequences for the country. Remaining in is unlikely to bankrupt us and leaving is just as unlikely to make us rich beyond our wildest dreams.

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

No...you are being facile, neil.

We are ruled by whatever government SOMEONE voted for in the UK, whether or not WE voted for it ourselves. that's democracy

But the UE rulers aren't voted for by anyone, we cannot remove, them, just as we don't vote them in. Honestly, if you can't see the difference, no wonder you don't understand the rest of it



You may be right, but it's not just the FACT that we will continue to bankroll basket-case economies, (who were NO fault of ours, remember???), but that we HAVE NO SAY!! And they can continue to keep coming here, taking jobs, services and returning nothing, other than cheap labour.

Read my link above as to why not.

hodgy0_2

which is why i put "almost certainly"

although imho - to think you can have the same free trade deal with Europe without accepting the central tenet of free movement puts you squarely in the bat **** crazy territory

with a flimsy grasp of reality

Geezer

As convoluted as I agree that is, it is still votes, from the UK. Would you care to explain why that is any less fair than in 2015 when 63.1% of the population didn't want a Conservative government, yet they ended up with an overrall majority?

You can't cry foul of one system of election whilst conveniently ignoring another.

63.1% of people believe that the Government is not acting in their best interests.



As is your right, but I say UK elections are undemocratic, what's another undemocratic one amongst friends?




The EU then

warrenm2

You're going all straw man there. You claimed we directly elect MEPs. That is wrong, as I demonstrated

Thats a separate discussion of the optimal voting system, and outside the scope of this thread

You can stick that in your highly EU regulated and taxed e-cigarette, and go outside, as per EU health& safety, and smoke it in a EU approved way

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Nope again.
THEY NEED US to buy their stuff. They are NOT going to put that at risk. Germany especially.

It is you who are now desperate and are dealing in fantasy as fact. Give it up...you've either lost the argument or lost it

hodgy0_2

We will get a trade deal with EU, that is simply a statement of reality

We will not get the same free trade deal we have now without the free movement of people

Again simply a statement of reality

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

And you know this because?

You really believe that the Germans will lose trade so that a load of Eastern Europeans, Romanians and Albanians can come and live here? Really?

neil-h

See this is exactly what i meant by rose-tinted spectacles. I highly doubt the Germans (or indeed the EU as a whole) are going to lose any sleep over trading with us. There are plenty of countries that will happily fill any gap we create.

hodgy0_2

unfortunately I live in the real world not a fantasy one

see here

a graphic of what we as country export

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore...show/all/2014/

and a graphic of what Germany does

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore...show/all/2014/


for people to lazy to look - I will post the graphics

Germany's exports





the UK exports





so we EXPORT slightly more to Germany (as a % of GDP) then they do to us

but hey in your world we hold ALL the aces

jeeez

andy97

iTrader: (1)

Nice graphics, but the message is confusing and meant to mislead because the blocks are different sizes for the same percentages, so it looks like Germany hardly sends much to the UK and vice versa to Germany

markjmd

iTrader: (11)

All this hoo-ha about whether or not we'd be able to "negotiate the same trade deals" after Brexit is a complete and utter load of nonsense. Nobody needs a trade deal to buy or sell stuff to or from another country or trading block, and in actual fact, a far larger proportion of the world's overall trade is done between countries that DON'T have trade deals with one another.

hodgy0_2

no one is disputing that

without trade deals you have duties and tariffs that's all

"you can still buy and sell stuff" - yes, amazing who knew!!!!

the "terms" on which you trade are important

hodgy0_2

the block sizes look like the % sizes to me

but fine - focus on the figures !!!

markjmd

iTrader: (11)

From reading this thread and others like it, you'd easily be forgiven for thinking they were.

hodgy0_2

well certainly not me - I think I stated that early on

that we would still continue to trade, the earth would not stop rotating (unless it is flat!!)

I think it is also undeniable that there would be a sharp shock to the economy from a Brexit, if only because markets don't like change

long term, obviously less clear, but is suspect and imv we as a country would be worse off - in a whole host of ways


obviously there would be winners, but I think more losers

RobJenks

Brexit -The Movie

Martin2005

Warren has already beaten you to it

RobJenks

Yes I know Martin-my mistake.

But if you have 30 minutes this video is worth a look.

steve05wrx

Hi,
Two things:-
1) the worry over Brexit reminds me of the worry over the Millenium bug. Come 1st January 2000 the ATMs still worked, I still had a hangover and the Millenium bug was a fallacy.
2) if we do vote for Brexit - I hope Cameron (or Boris) do a better job of negotiating our exit than was done on our recent concession negotiations!
Cheers
Steve

David Lock

That's a logical approach Ali but I think the flaw is that you are assuming that most people will vote along party lines. Will be more true for UKIP and the Tory blue rinse brigade but many traditional Labour folk don't like Corbyn who in any event has been pretty half-hearted in his Remain support. I think a lot of people will vote Out based on stupid misconceptions, media rubbish and a childish ignorance and "wouldn't it be fun to stick two fingers up to the Frogs and Krauts". My view is that the consequences of leaving are too uncertain and if we end up with Trump carpet bombing Syria to destroy IS (which wouldn't work anyway) and starting WW3 then I would rather UK had the protection of Europe.
May be the default British attitude that we don't like change will save the day. David

andy97

iTrader: (1)

It's Nato that is the defence of Europe including the UK, not the EU.

But for a bit of fun the French have two forms of defence run away or surrender

GWJ

We do have the protection of Europe, we are members of NATO and the UN and these have nothing to do with the EU

Martin2005

Tell that to the families of the 1.4 million French soldiers that died during WW1

BMWhere?

Well, as a Brit living in Germany, I can give you a bit of insight about what Germany thinks about Brexit...

From a trade point of view, they're not in the least bit bothered. Anything that Germany currently imports from the UK, they can quite easily get from other EU countries or countries with existing trade deals. As for German exports to the UK, firstly, it accounts for a relatively small amount of the German export market and secondly, given that the UK will be equally subject to tarifs from other countries, there is no reason why the UK would stop buying German - its just going to cost more. Brits will still buy German cars and much of the heavy machinery that the UK buys from Germany has no alternatives from other countries anyway.

So, from a German perspective, there is really no interest in making a trade deal with the UK that doesn't benefit the EU more than it would benefit the UK. There is also a general feeling that they should in fact punish the UK for leaving.

Germany's real fear about Brexit is more about the stability of the EU should Britain leave. The possibility that other countries may also be tempted to leave the EU and that the EU will subsequently collapse. Germany, perhaps more than other countries, remembers the world pre-EU and for Germany they are not happy memories. The current rise of nationalism and anti immigration, not only in the UK, but in several EU states is a great fear for Germany and they understand more than anyone the consequences of such political views.