View Poll Results: How will you vote in the EU referendum?
Voters: 255. You may not vote on this poll
EU Referendum
#811
Of course not....but at least I was given the chance to vote. Did YOU vote for Herr Juncker? Or in the election when he WAS voted in?
Your posts are getting desperate.
Admit it, OUT makes more sense than anything you, Martin or Geezer can come up with, all thinking together. Well...two of you thinking and Martin denying....
#812
#813
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From: The hell where youth and laughter go
I've been doing a few basic figures - sans calculator, so they are rough figures...
2015 had 30.69million voters. We need over 15.345 million to go either way.
UKIP in 2015 got 3.88 million, so I can be fairly confident in stating that the exit camp will get at least that number of votes.
Which leaves 11.465 million more votes required to leave. Thats alot. Considering Labour and Conservative get about 20.6 million votes between them. Both are pro-EU parties, so even if half of Lab and Cons voters voted exit that still leaves teh exit camp 1.16 million votes short of winning.
The only spanner in the works is expected turn out should be alot higher, 2015 was 66%, I think its fair to says it going to be at least 10% more this year....but what side the previous non-voters are on is going to be the biggest decider.
I'm off the the bookies now
2015 had 30.69million voters. We need over 15.345 million to go either way.
UKIP in 2015 got 3.88 million, so I can be fairly confident in stating that the exit camp will get at least that number of votes.
Which leaves 11.465 million more votes required to leave. Thats alot. Considering Labour and Conservative get about 20.6 million votes between them. Both are pro-EU parties, so even if half of Lab and Cons voters voted exit that still leaves teh exit camp 1.16 million votes short of winning.
The only spanner in the works is expected turn out should be alot higher, 2015 was 66%, I think its fair to says it going to be at least 10% more this year....but what side the previous non-voters are on is going to be the biggest decider.
I'm off the the bookies now
Last edited by ALi-B; 17 May 2016 at 01:53 PM.
#814
you can't have your cake and eat it
#815
You, like me, just don't know, so you need to stop posting supposition as fact
And as for cake, perhaps we'll see OUR bit shared more fairly once we aren't propping up basket-case economies any more?
#816
Nope it doesn't, I don't personally believe either option will have any drastic long term economic consequences for the country. Remaining in is unlikely to bankrupt us and leaving is just as unlikely to make us rich beyond our wildest dreams.
#817
We are ruled by whatever government SOMEONE voted for in the UK, whether or not WE voted for it ourselves. that's democracy
But the UE rulers aren't voted for by anyone, we cannot remove, them, just as we don't vote them in. Honestly, if you can't see the difference, no wonder you don't understand the rest of it
Facebook Post
Read my link above as to why not.
Last edited by alcazar; 17 May 2016 at 05:08 PM.
#818
although imho - to think you can have the same free trade deal with Europe without accepting the central tenet of free movement puts you squarely in the bat **** crazy territory
with a flimsy grasp of reality
#819
No, you vote for a party and the party decides a numbered list. If they win enough votes for 4 MEPs say, (under the D'Hondt system,) then the first four get in (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27187434). Please understand the subject before commenting
You can't cry foul of one system of election whilst conveniently ignoring another.
63.1% of people believe that the Government is not acting in their best interests.
The EU then
#820
You're going all straw man there. You claimed we directly elect MEPs. That is wrong, as I demonstrated
Thats a separate discussion of the optimal voting system, and outside the scope of this thread
You can stick that in your highly EU regulated and taxed e-cigarette, and go outside, as per EU health& safety, and smoke it in a EU approved way
Would you care to explain why that is any less fair than in 2015 when 63.1% of the population didn't want a Conservative government, yet they ended up with an overrall majority?
You can't cry foul of one system of election whilst conveniently ignoring another.
63.1% of people believe that the Government is not acting in their best interests.
You can't cry foul of one system of election whilst conveniently ignoring another.
63.1% of people believe that the Government is not acting in their best interests.
You can stick that in your highly EU regulated and taxed e-cigarette, and go outside, as per EU health& safety, and smoke it in a EU approved way
#821
THEY NEED US to buy their stuff. They are NOT going to put that at risk. Germany especially.
It is you who are now desperate and are dealing in fantasy as fact. Give it up...you've either lost the argument or lost it
#824
See this is exactly what i meant by rose-tinted spectacles. I highly doubt the Germans (or indeed the EU as a whole) are going to lose any sleep over trading with us. There are plenty of countries that will happily fill any gap we create.
#825
see here
a graphic of what we as country export
http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore...show/all/2014/
and a graphic of what Germany does
http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore...show/all/2014/
for people to lazy to look - I will post the graphics
Germany's exports
the UK exports
so we EXPORT slightly more to Germany (as a % of GDP) then they do to us
but hey in your world we hold ALL the aces
jeeez
Last edited by hodgy0_2; 18 May 2016 at 11:03 AM.
#826
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From: Api 500+bhp MD321T @91dB Probably SN's longest owner of an Impreza Turbo
Nice graphics, but the message is confusing and meant to mislead because the blocks are different sizes for the same percentages, so it looks like Germany hardly sends much to the UK and vice versa to Germany
#827
All this hoo-ha about whether or not we'd be able to "negotiate the same trade deals" after Brexit is a complete and utter load of nonsense. Nobody needs a trade deal to buy or sell stuff to or from another country or trading block, and in actual fact, a far larger proportion of the world's overall trade is done between countries that DON'T have trade deals with one another.
#828
All this hoo-ha about whether or not we'd be able to "negotiate the same trade deals" after Brexit is a complete and utter load of nonsense. Nobody needs a trade deal to buy or sell stuff to or from another country or trading block, and in actual fact, a far larger proportion of the world's overall trade is done between countries that DON'T have trade deals with one another.
without trade deals you have duties and tariffs that's all
"you can still buy and sell stuff" - yes, amazing who knew!!!!
the "terms" on which you trade are important
Last edited by hodgy0_2; 18 May 2016 at 11:39 AM.
#829
but fine - focus on the figures !!!
#830
From reading this thread and others like it, you'd easily be forgiven for thinking they were.
#831
that we would still continue to trade, the earth would not stop rotating (unless it is flat!!)
I think it is also undeniable that there would be a sharp shock to the economy from a Brexit, if only because markets don't like change
long term, obviously less clear, but is suspect and imv we as a country would be worse off - in a whole host of ways
obviously there would be winners, but I think more losers
#833
Warren has already beaten you to it
#835
Hi,
Two things:-
1) the worry over Brexit reminds me of the worry over the Millenium bug. Come 1st January 2000 the ATMs still worked, I still had a hangover and the Millenium bug was a fallacy.
2) if we do vote for Brexit - I hope Cameron (or Boris) do a better job of negotiating our exit than was done on our recent concession negotiations!
Cheers
Steve
Two things:-
1) the worry over Brexit reminds me of the worry over the Millenium bug. Come 1st January 2000 the ATMs still worked, I still had a hangover and the Millenium bug was a fallacy.
2) if we do vote for Brexit - I hope Cameron (or Boris) do a better job of negotiating our exit than was done on our recent concession negotiations!
Cheers
Steve
#836
I've been doing a few basic figures - sans calculator, so they are rough figures...
2015 had 30.69million voters. We need over 15.345 million to go either way.
UKIP in 2015 got 3.88 million, so I can be fairly confident in stating that the exit camp will get at least that number of votes.
Which leaves 11.465 million more votes required to leave. Thats alot. Considering Labour and Conservative get about 20.6 million votes between them. Both are pro-EU parties, so even if half of Lab and Cons voters voted exit that still leaves teh exit camp 1.16 million votes short of winning.
The only spanner in the works is expected turn out should be alot higher, 2015 was 66%, I think its fair to says it going to be at least 10% more this year....but what side the previous non-voters are on is going to be the biggest decider.
I'm off the the bookies now
2015 had 30.69million voters. We need over 15.345 million to go either way.
UKIP in 2015 got 3.88 million, so I can be fairly confident in stating that the exit camp will get at least that number of votes.
Which leaves 11.465 million more votes required to leave. Thats alot. Considering Labour and Conservative get about 20.6 million votes between them. Both are pro-EU parties, so even if half of Lab and Cons voters voted exit that still leaves teh exit camp 1.16 million votes short of winning.
The only spanner in the works is expected turn out should be alot higher, 2015 was 66%, I think its fair to says it going to be at least 10% more this year....but what side the previous non-voters are on is going to be the biggest decider.
I'm off the the bookies now
That's a logical approach Ali but I think the flaw is that you are assuming that most people will vote along party lines. Will be more true for UKIP and the Tory blue rinse brigade but many traditional Labour folk don't like Corbyn who in any event has been pretty half-hearted in his Remain support. I think a lot of people will vote Out based on stupid misconceptions, media rubbish and a childish ignorance and "wouldn't it be fun to stick two fingers up to the Frogs and Krauts". My view is that the consequences of leaving are too uncertain and if we end up with Trump carpet bombing Syria to destroy IS (which wouldn't work anyway) and starting WW3 then I would rather UK had the protection of Europe.
May be the default British attitude that we don't like change will save the day. David
#837
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (1)
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 6,296
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From: Api 500+bhp MD321T @91dB Probably SN's longest owner of an Impreza Turbo
Nato defend Europe not the EU
That's a logical approach Ali but I think the flaw is that you are assuming that most people will vote along party lines. Will be more true for UKIP and the Tory blue rinse brigade but many traditional Labour folk don't like Corbyn who in any event has been pretty half-hearted in his Remain support. I think a lot of people will vote Out based on stupid misconceptions, media rubbish and a childish ignorance and "wouldn't it be fun to stick two fingers up to the Frogs and Krauts". My view is that the consequences of leaving are too uncertain and if we end up with Trump carpet bombing Syria to destroy IS (which wouldn't work anyway) and starting WW3 then I would rather UK had the protection of Europe.
May be the default British attitude that we don't like change will save the day. David
May be the default British attitude that we don't like change will save the day. David
But for a bit of fun the French have two forms of defence run away or surrender
#839
#840
From a trade point of view, they're not in the least bit bothered. Anything that Germany currently imports from the UK, they can quite easily get from other EU countries or countries with existing trade deals. As for German exports to the UK, firstly, it accounts for a relatively small amount of the German export market and secondly, given that the UK will be equally subject to tarifs from other countries, there is no reason why the UK would stop buying German - its just going to cost more. Brits will still buy German cars and much of the heavy machinery that the UK buys from Germany has no alternatives from other countries anyway.
So, from a German perspective, there is really no interest in making a trade deal with the UK that doesn't benefit the EU more than it would benefit the UK. There is also a general feeling that they should in fact punish the UK for leaving.
Germany's real fear about Brexit is more about the stability of the EU should Britain leave. The possibility that other countries may also be tempted to leave the EU and that the EU will subsequently collapse. Germany, perhaps more than other countries, remembers the world pre-EU and for Germany they are not happy memories. The current rise of nationalism and anti immigration, not only in the UK, but in several EU states is a great fear for Germany and they understand more than anyone the consequences of such political views.