Notices
Non Scooby Related Anything Non-Scooby related
View Poll Results: How will you vote in the EU referendum?
Leave the EU
67.45%
Remain in the EU
22.75%
Don't know yet
5.49%
Won't be voting
4.31%
Voters: 255. You may not vote on this poll

EU Referendum

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 17 May 2016 | 01:31 PM
  #811  
alcazar's Avatar
alcazar
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (2)
 
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 40,781
Likes: 27
From: Rl'yeh
Default

Originally Posted by neil-h
In comparison to the rose tinted optimism which we get from the Out camp... IMHO
Corrected for honesty



Originally Posted by neil-h
So you voted for the Tories?
Of course not....but at least I was given the chance to vote. Did YOU vote for Herr Juncker? Or in the election when he WAS voted in?

Your posts are getting desperate.

Admit it, OUT makes more sense than anything you, Martin or Geezer can come up with, all thinking together. Well...two of you thinking and Martin denying....
Old 17 May 2016 | 01:33 PM
  #812  
alcazar's Avatar
alcazar
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (2)
 
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 40,781
Likes: 27
From: Rl'yeh
Default

Originally Posted by Martin2005
That doesn't really answer the question of, what is going to happen to all the EU migrants if Brexit happens?
That's because no-one knows.

But what WILL be true is that WE will be able to control the numbers of those coming, unlike now.
Old 17 May 2016 | 01:50 PM
  #813  
ALi-B's Avatar
ALi-B
Moderator
iTrader: (1)
 
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 38,047
Likes: 301
From: The hell where youth and laughter go
Default

I've been doing a few basic figures - sans calculator, so they are rough figures...

2015 had 30.69million voters. We need over 15.345 million to go either way.

UKIP in 2015 got 3.88 million, so I can be fairly confident in stating that the exit camp will get at least that number of votes.

Which leaves 11.465 million more votes required to leave. Thats alot. Considering Labour and Conservative get about 20.6 million votes between them. Both are pro-EU parties, so even if half of Lab and Cons voters voted exit that still leaves teh exit camp 1.16 million votes short of winning.

The only spanner in the works is expected turn out should be alot higher, 2015 was 66%, I think its fair to says it going to be at least 10% more this year....but what side the previous non-voters are on is going to be the biggest decider.

I'm off the the bookies now

Last edited by ALi-B; 17 May 2016 at 01:53 PM.
Old 17 May 2016 | 02:31 PM
  #814  
hodgy0_2's Avatar
hodgy0_2
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 15,633
Likes: 21
From: K
Default

Originally Posted by alcazar
That's because no-one knows.

But what WILL be true is that WE will be able to control the numbers of those coming, unlike now.
true - only if we negotiate a trade deal that will almost certainly not be as advantageous as the current one

you can't have your cake and eat it
Old 17 May 2016 | 04:23 PM
  #815  
alcazar's Avatar
alcazar
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (2)
 
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 40,781
Likes: 27
From: Rl'yeh
Default

Originally Posted by hodgy0_2
true - only if we negotiate a trade deal that will almost certainly not be as advantageous as the current one IMHO

you can't have your cake and eat it
Edited for honesty.

You, like me, just don't know, so you need to stop posting supposition as fact

And as for cake, perhaps we'll see OUR bit shared more fairly once we aren't propping up basket-case economies any more?
Old 17 May 2016 | 04:29 PM
  #816  
neil-h's Avatar
neil-h
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 4,224
Likes: 0
From: Berks
Default

Originally Posted by alcazar
Of course not....but at least I was given the chance to vote. Did YOU vote for Herr Juncker? Or in the election when he WAS voted in?
So you're ultimately being ruled by politicians you didn't vote for? Whether or not you have the choice is academic as far as I'm concerned if the end result (when given the choice) is unrepresentative of what the populous actually wants.

Originally Posted by alcazar
Admit it, OUT makes more sense than anything you, Martin or Geezer can come up with, all thinking together. Well...two of you thinking and Martin denying....
Nope it doesn't, I don't personally believe either option will have any drastic long term economic consequences for the country. Remaining in is unlikely to bankrupt us and leaving is just as unlikely to make us rich beyond our wildest dreams.
Old 17 May 2016 | 05:07 PM
  #817  
alcazar's Avatar
alcazar
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (2)
 
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 40,781
Likes: 27
From: Rl'yeh
Default

Originally Posted by neil-h
So you're ultimately being ruled by politicians you didn't vote for? Whether or not you have the choice is academic as far as I'm concerned if the end result (when given the choice) is unrepresentative of what the populous actually wants.
No...you are being facile, neil.

We are ruled by whatever government SOMEONE voted for in the UK, whether or not WE voted for it ourselves. that's democracy

But the UE rulers aren't voted for by anyone, we cannot remove, them, just as we don't vote them in. Honestly, if you can't see the difference, no wonder you don't understand the rest of it

Facebook Post


Originally Posted by neil-h
Nope it doesn't, I don't personally believe either option will have any drastic long term economic consequences for the country. Remaining in is unlikely to bankrupt us and leaving is just as unlikely to make us rich beyond our wildest dreams.
You may be right, but it's not just the FACT that we will continue to bankroll basket-case economies, (who were NO fault of ours, remember???), but that we HAVE NO SAY!! And they can continue to keep coming here, taking jobs, services and returning nothing, other than cheap labour.

Read my link above as to why not.

Last edited by alcazar; 17 May 2016 at 05:08 PM.
Old 17 May 2016 | 05:24 PM
  #818  
hodgy0_2's Avatar
hodgy0_2
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 15,633
Likes: 21
From: K
Default

Originally Posted by alcazar
Edited for honesty.

You, like me, just don't know, so you need to stop posting supposition as fact

And as for cake, perhaps we'll see OUR bit shared more fairly once we aren't propping up basket-case economies any more?
which is why i put "almost certainly"

although imho - to think you can have the same free trade deal with Europe without accepting the central tenet of free movement puts you squarely in the bat **** crazy territory

with a flimsy grasp of reality
Old 17 May 2016 | 05:36 PM
  #819  
Geezer's Avatar
Geezer
Scooby Senior
 
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 5,826
Likes: 0
From: North Wales
Default

Originally Posted by warrenm2
No, you vote for a party and the party decides a numbered list. If they win enough votes for 4 MEPs say, (under the D'Hondt system,) then the first four get in (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27187434). Please understand the subject before commenting
As convoluted as I agree that is, it is still votes, from the UK. Would you care to explain why that is any less fair than in 2015 when 63.1% of the population didn't want a Conservative government, yet they ended up with an overrall majority?

You can't cry foul of one system of election whilst conveniently ignoring another.

63.1% of people believe that the Government is not acting in their best interests.



Originally Posted by warrenm2
I'll refrain from the ad hom, and only say I completely disagree with that analysis
As is your right, but I say UK elections are undemocratic, what's another undemocratic one amongst friends?




Originally Posted by warrenm2
The greater good
The EU then
Old 17 May 2016 | 05:58 PM
  #820  
warrenm2's Avatar
warrenm2
Thread Starter
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 5,832
Likes: 0
From: Epsom
Default

Originally Posted by Geezer
As convoluted as I agree that is, it is still votes, from the UK.
You're going all straw man there. You claimed we directly elect MEPs. That is wrong, as I demonstrated

Originally Posted by Geezer
Would you care to explain why that is any less fair than in 2015 when 63.1% of the population didn't want a Conservative government, yet they ended up with an overrall majority?

You can't cry foul of one system of election whilst conveniently ignoring another.

63.1% of people believe that the Government is not acting in their best interests.
Thats a separate discussion of the optimal voting system, and outside the scope of this thread

Originally Posted by Geezer
The EU then
You can stick that in your highly EU regulated and taxed e-cigarette, and go outside, as per EU health& safety, and smoke it in a EU approved way
Old 17 May 2016 | 09:09 PM
  #821  
alcazar's Avatar
alcazar
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (2)
 
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 40,781
Likes: 27
From: Rl'yeh
Default

Originally Posted by hodgy0_2
which is why i put "almost certainly"

although imho - to think you can have the same free trade deal with Europe without accepting the central tenet of free movement puts you squarely in the bat **** crazy territory

with a flimsy grasp of reality
Nope again.
THEY NEED US to buy their stuff. They are NOT going to put that at risk. Germany especially.

It is you who are now desperate and are dealing in fantasy as fact. Give it up...you've either lost the argument or lost it
Old 17 May 2016 | 09:22 PM
  #822  
hodgy0_2's Avatar
hodgy0_2
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 15,633
Likes: 21
From: K
Default

We will get a trade deal with EU, that is simply a statement of reality

We will not get the same free trade deal we have now without the free movement of people

Again simply a statement of reality
Old 18 May 2016 | 10:04 AM
  #823  
alcazar's Avatar
alcazar
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (2)
 
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 40,781
Likes: 27
From: Rl'yeh
Default

And you know this because?

You really believe that the Germans will lose trade so that a load of Eastern Europeans, Romanians and Albanians can come and live here? Really?
Old 18 May 2016 | 10:30 AM
  #824  
neil-h's Avatar
neil-h
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 4,224
Likes: 0
From: Berks
Default

Originally Posted by alcazar
Nope again.
THEY NEED US to buy their stuff. They are NOT going to put that at risk. Germany especially.

It is you who are now desperate and are dealing in fantasy as fact. Give it up...you've either lost the argument or lost it
See this is exactly what i meant by rose-tinted spectacles. I highly doubt the Germans (or indeed the EU as a whole) are going to lose any sleep over trading with us. There are plenty of countries that will happily fill any gap we create.
Old 18 May 2016 | 11:01 AM
  #825  
hodgy0_2's Avatar
hodgy0_2
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 15,633
Likes: 21
From: K
Default

Originally Posted by alcazar
And you know this because?

You really believe that the Germans will lose trade so that a load of Eastern Europeans, Romanians and Albanians can come and live here? Really?
unfortunately I live in the real world not a fantasy one

see here

a graphic of what we as country export

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore...show/all/2014/

and a graphic of what Germany does

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore...show/all/2014/


for people to lazy to look - I will post the graphics

Germany's exports





the UK exports





so we EXPORT slightly more to Germany (as a % of GDP) then they do to us

but hey in your world we hold ALL the aces

jeeez

Last edited by hodgy0_2; 18 May 2016 at 11:03 AM.
Old 18 May 2016 | 11:08 AM
  #826  
andy97's Avatar
andy97
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (1)
 
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 6,296
Likes: 118
From: Api 500+bhp MD321T @91dB Probably SN's longest owner of an Impreza Turbo
Default

Nice graphics, but the message is confusing and meant to mislead because the blocks are different sizes for the same percentages, so it looks like Germany hardly sends much to the UK and vice versa to Germany
Old 18 May 2016 | 11:15 AM
  #827  
markjmd's Avatar
markjmd
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (11)
 
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 4,342
Likes: 70
Default

All this hoo-ha about whether or not we'd be able to "negotiate the same trade deals" after Brexit is a complete and utter load of nonsense. Nobody needs a trade deal to buy or sell stuff to or from another country or trading block, and in actual fact, a far larger proportion of the world's overall trade is done between countries that DON'T have trade deals with one another.
Old 18 May 2016 | 11:38 AM
  #828  
hodgy0_2's Avatar
hodgy0_2
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 15,633
Likes: 21
From: K
Default

Originally Posted by markjmd
All this hoo-ha about whether or not we'd be able to "negotiate the same trade deals" after Brexit is a complete and utter load of nonsense. Nobody needs a trade deal to buy or sell stuff to or from another country or trading block, and in actual fact, a far larger proportion of the world's overall trade is done between countries that DON'T have trade deals with one another.
no one is disputing that

without trade deals you have duties and tariffs that's all

"you can still buy and sell stuff" - yes, amazing who knew!!!!

the "terms" on which you trade are important

Last edited by hodgy0_2; 18 May 2016 at 11:39 AM.
Old 18 May 2016 | 11:39 AM
  #829  
hodgy0_2's Avatar
hodgy0_2
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 15,633
Likes: 21
From: K
Default

Originally Posted by andy97
Nice graphics, but the message is confusing and meant to mislead because the blocks are different sizes for the same percentages, so it looks like Germany hardly sends much to the UK and vice versa to Germany
the block sizes look like the % sizes to me

but fine - focus on the figures !!!
Old 18 May 2016 | 11:40 AM
  #830  
markjmd's Avatar
markjmd
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (11)
 
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 4,342
Likes: 70
Default

Originally Posted by hodgy0_2
no one is disputing that

without trade deals you have duties and tariffs that's all

"you can still but and sell stuff" - yes, who knew!!!!

the "terms" on which you trade are important
From reading this thread and others like it, you'd easily be forgiven for thinking they were.
Old 18 May 2016 | 12:13 PM
  #831  
hodgy0_2's Avatar
hodgy0_2
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 15,633
Likes: 21
From: K
Default

Originally Posted by markjmd
From reading this thread and others like it, you'd easily be forgiven for thinking they were.
well certainly not me - I think I stated that early on

that we would still continue to trade, the earth would not stop rotating (unless it is flat!!)

I think it is also undeniable that there would be a sharp shock to the economy from a Brexit, if only because markets don't like change

long term, obviously less clear, but is suspect and imv we as a country would be worse off - in a whole host of ways


obviously there would be winners, but I think more losers
Old 18 May 2016 | 01:46 PM
  #832  
RobJenks's Avatar
RobJenks
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jul 1999
Posts: 1,475
Likes: 12
Default

Brexit -The Movie

Old 18 May 2016 | 01:53 PM
  #833  
Martin2005's Avatar
Martin2005
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,222
Likes: 0
From: Type 25. Build No.34
Default

Originally Posted by RobJenks

Warren has already beaten you to it
Old 18 May 2016 | 02:12 PM
  #834  
RobJenks's Avatar
RobJenks
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jul 1999
Posts: 1,475
Likes: 12
Default

Yes I know Martin-my mistake.

But if you have 30 minutes this video is worth a look.

Old 18 May 2016 | 02:31 PM
  #835  
steve05wrx's Avatar
steve05wrx
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 446
Likes: 0
From: Sunny Abu Dhabi!
Default

Hi,
Two things:-
1) the worry over Brexit reminds me of the worry over the Millenium bug. Come 1st January 2000 the ATMs still worked, I still had a hangover and the Millenium bug was a fallacy.
2) if we do vote for Brexit - I hope Cameron (or Boris) do a better job of negotiating our exit than was done on our recent concession negotiations!
Cheers
Steve
Old 18 May 2016 | 02:36 PM
  #836  
David Lock's Avatar
David Lock
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Mar 2000
Posts: 14,102
Likes: 0
From: Weston Super Mare, Somerset.
Default

Originally Posted by ALi-B
I've been doing a few basic figures - sans calculator, so they are rough figures...

2015 had 30.69million voters. We need over 15.345 million to go either way.

UKIP in 2015 got 3.88 million, so I can be fairly confident in stating that the exit camp will get at least that number of votes.

Which leaves 11.465 million more votes required to leave. Thats alot. Considering Labour and Conservative get about 20.6 million votes between them. Both are pro-EU parties, so even if half of Lab and Cons voters voted exit that still leaves teh exit camp 1.16 million votes short of winning.

The only spanner in the works is expected turn out should be alot higher, 2015 was 66%, I think its fair to says it going to be at least 10% more this year....but what side the previous non-voters are on is going to be the biggest decider.

I'm off the the bookies now

That's a logical approach Ali but I think the flaw is that you are assuming that most people will vote along party lines. Will be more true for UKIP and the Tory blue rinse brigade but many traditional Labour folk don't like Corbyn who in any event has been pretty half-hearted in his Remain support. I think a lot of people will vote Out based on stupid misconceptions, media rubbish and a childish ignorance and "wouldn't it be fun to stick two fingers up to the Frogs and Krauts". My view is that the consequences of leaving are too uncertain and if we end up with Trump carpet bombing Syria to destroy IS (which wouldn't work anyway) and starting WW3 then I would rather UK had the protection of Europe.
May be the default British attitude that we don't like change will save the day. David
Old 18 May 2016 | 03:33 PM
  #837  
andy97's Avatar
andy97
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (1)
 
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 6,296
Likes: 118
From: Api 500+bhp MD321T @91dB Probably SN's longest owner of an Impreza Turbo
Default Nato defend Europe not the EU

Originally Posted by David Lock
That's a logical approach Ali but I think the flaw is that you are assuming that most people will vote along party lines. Will be more true for UKIP and the Tory blue rinse brigade but many traditional Labour folk don't like Corbyn who in any event has been pretty half-hearted in his Remain support. I think a lot of people will vote Out based on stupid misconceptions, media rubbish and a childish ignorance and "wouldn't it be fun to stick two fingers up to the Frogs and Krauts". My view is that the consequences of leaving are too uncertain and if we end up with Trump carpet bombing Syria to destroy IS (which wouldn't work anyway) and starting WW3 then I would rather UK had the protection of Europe.
May be the default British attitude that we don't like change will save the day. David
It's Nato that is the defence of Europe including the UK, not the EU.

But for a bit of fun the French have two forms of defence run away or surrender
Old 18 May 2016 | 03:42 PM
  #838  
GWJ's Avatar
GWJ
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 230
Likes: 0
From: UK
Default

We do have the protection of Europe, we are members of NATO and the UN and these have nothing to do with the EU
Old 18 May 2016 | 04:10 PM
  #839  
Martin2005's Avatar
Martin2005
Scooby Regular
 
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,222
Likes: 0
From: Type 25. Build No.34
Default

Originally Posted by andy97
It's Nato that is the defence of Europe including the UK, not the EU.

But for a bit of fun the French have two forms of defence run away or surrender

Tell that to the families of the 1.4 million French soldiers that died during WW1
Old 18 May 2016 | 04:48 PM
  #840  
BMWhere?'s Avatar
BMWhere?
Scooby Senior
 
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 3,635
Likes: 229
From: Friedrichshafen Germany/Preston UK
Default

Originally Posted by alcazar
Nope again.
THEY NEED US to buy their stuff. They are NOT going to put that at risk. Germany especially.

It is you who are now desperate and are dealing in fantasy as fact. Give it up...you've either lost the argument or lost it
Originally Posted by neil-h
See this is exactly what i meant by rose-tinted spectacles. I highly doubt the Germans (or indeed the EU as a whole) are going to lose any sleep over trading with us. There are plenty of countries that will happily fill any gap we create.
Well, as a Brit living in Germany, I can give you a bit of insight about what Germany thinks about Brexit...

From a trade point of view, they're not in the least bit bothered. Anything that Germany currently imports from the UK, they can quite easily get from other EU countries or countries with existing trade deals. As for German exports to the UK, firstly, it accounts for a relatively small amount of the German export market and secondly, given that the UK will be equally subject to tarifs from other countries, there is no reason why the UK would stop buying German - its just going to cost more. Brits will still buy German cars and much of the heavy machinery that the UK buys from Germany has no alternatives from other countries anyway.

So, from a German perspective, there is really no interest in making a trade deal with the UK that doesn't benefit the EU more than it would benefit the UK. There is also a general feeling that they should in fact punish the UK for leaving.

Germany's real fear about Brexit is more about the stability of the EU should Britain leave. The possibility that other countries may also be tempted to leave the EU and that the EU will subsequently collapse. Germany, perhaps more than other countries, remembers the world pre-EU and for Germany they are not happy memories. The current rise of nationalism and anti immigration, not only in the UK, but in several EU states is a great fear for Germany and they understand more than anyone the consequences of such political views.


Quick Reply: EU Referendum



All times are GMT +1. The time now is 11:51 PM.