Pete Croney

Watching residual values has been quite a scary thing, over the past few months.

I was talking to a dealer friend a while ago and we both thought that the P1 could well destroy the Imprezas cast iron residual value. Not because it is a great car, but because nearly 1000 would come onto the market at about the same time and most would be bought by existing Impreza owners.

Previously, Subaru UK have put about 250 new turbos a month into circulation and I suspect that approx 100 greys are imported a month.

Suddenly we have another 500+ used Imprezas added to the for sale pages.

Posts like Rum's on the For Sale section seem to be typical of people that I have spoken to and supply and demand will dictate that prices will fall substantially.

SUK Finance were aware of this some time ago, as guaranteed residuals have been marked down on new finance deals for a while now.

My point is... bearing in mind the recent Select Committee report about the price differentials in UK - Euro pricing and the pressure that this will put on new car prices (and hence residuals), will this current drop in residuals ever be reversed or have we all just lost a shed load of money?

Mike Shaw

Hi Pete,

I reckon you've all lost a shed load of dosh. I sold my Impreza last October - the price I got seemed low then but it doesn't now! I'm not smug though - I'm driving a Nissan Primera at the mo. It's a GT, so it's not too bad, and dare I suggest it's chassis is a match for the Scooby? Shame it's only got 150bhp.

Now I'm just hoping Evo VI values crash so I can afford one (BOO! HISS! Ok I'll go quietly )

Mike

Markus

I aggree. It is very scary. I purchased a nearly new Mondeo ST24 in june last year and sold it at the start of April this year and lost aprox £5500. Now I know that it's Ford and not a scooby, but even still, that is one hell of a drop.

When dealers start to drop the prices as per the recent committe report then it is really going to be a buyers market. I'm already feeling just a little peeved as I'm just about to take delivery of an, albeit L/M reg, WRX Wagon, and I know that I haven't got a hope in hell of selling at a decent price, not that I'm going to sell it for a long while anyway. I als know that the price of a UK spec car is going to come down to the same level as that of the import, thus I guess I should have waited a few more months, but then the mondeo would have been worth even less! Vicious circle or what!

My personal view is that used market prices are going to drop in a big way in the next 6 - 12 months, and they'll dip a bit more when the new model comes out in Japan, then there will be another, quite probably big, drop when the new model officially reaches are shores. I reckon that it will take at least 2 - 3 years until things start to stablise. As I said, this is my totatly uneducated view.

On a happier note, I'm really looking forward to being a scooby owner.

Miles

This subject has been bothering me too. Basically I wanna buy a flat and that can't be managed whilst I've got the car. Unfortunately the local dealer isn't interested in 5dr at all and other dealers in Aberdeen are offering completely rubbish prices, like <£14000 (FYI 98MY, Nov 97, FSSH, 30000 miles) for it.
Have not tried the personal route as I think I'd be wasting my time - like whose gonna buy a car with 6 months warranty left for £15000/16000. Especially as new Turbos can be bought on the continent for that.

As it's a 5dr, I'll buy some curtains and put a duvet in the back

Diablo

Have to agree with Petes comment about the P1 giving rise to an oversupply of used Imprezas, but I don't share the pessimism on the market as a whole.

Mate of mine is a Vauxhaul dealer principal and I've spoken to him at length on this over the past few months.

It is likely that the worst hit will be the nearly new used car market. Anything over 2 to 3 years is unlikely to be as badly hit.

Simple reason being that car values have the biggest drop in the shortest time over the first few months of ownership. Remember also the VAT issue. Older used cars are not, he believes, likely to be hit that hard as by this time they have adopted a market value, not the inflated uk new value.

I think we will also see that whilst new car prices come down (a bit) it will initially be on certain models only within a range. Your top spec repmobile will probably cost much the same.

What will happen is that a lot of the manufacturer funded incentives (free insurance, 0% finance, special edition models with extras at no cost) will dissappear. Also expect air con and all the electric bits to make a hasty exit from base models.

Hence we end up paying the same, albeit by different means.

D

Showtime

Er..silly question really, but down at a local 'former subaru main agent' near horsham, I was told that people still wanted to 'upgrade' from std UK car to STi's. Are STi's still worth more ? (thats's why I bought one) or will they go for about the same as any other scoob on the market. Will people buy a 2nd hand STI or go the EU route ?? Dunno..just asking..

chuckster

I think we are just starting to experience what every other car buyer has had to cope with for the last 5 years.
Even if you sold that 97 for £13k - that'd still be like retaining 60% of it's value for 2.5 years - which is better than 95% of all makes sold. We had our heyday, but the cars were never gonna be an investment.
But to add to the doom and gloom, Mitsubishi announced recently that they were to start sourcing second hand EVO's in Japan, ship them over here, and sell as 'official' grey imports. Now thats gonna hurt scoobs too.
The good news is that the new MY01 scoob will be lots more expensive than the outgoing one(apparently), so shouldn't effect used values that much.
I had a Mondeo before my first scooby - bought it new for £14,000 2 years ago, sold it a year later and lost £6k - how's that for depreciation?
Cheers,
Charles

BHORT

I think that we have all lost loads of money, but think of it a different way. If new cars loose loads of money and consequently ours decrease in value significantly then next time that you want to buy a new car it will be cheaper itself. i.e. loose 4K on your current car pay 4K less for your next one (this is the car as an asset and not as an absolute value item).

I may be being stupid but whilst it is bad to appear to loose in the short term as I have (purchased at more or less full price last October) in the long run lower prices overall should benefit most people, for example leaving more money for petrol!!. It is swings and roundabouts at the moment, loose 4K on the car gain 4K on the house you can never really tell. I would sooner loose 4K on a car that I still look forward to getting in every time that I use it than 4K on something that just goes form A to B.

Consider the cars's value to you as a person and not as an investment and you can't go wrong.

Brendan

Kevin Groat

Anyone who bought a scooby because they used to hold their value really don't appreciate what owning one is all about. Even new at £21.5k the UK car is still an amazing performance bargain, okay so we're now faced with a car that depreciates, if it bothers you that much, take it for a blast along your favourite B road and remind yourself why you own one in the first place. I bought myself a 5 door STI3 eight months ago and still haven't managed to overcome the grin factor.

Kevin.

Geezer

I just cannot fathom out the British psyche. For years everybody moans on about how badly done to we are, and why should we pay more for our cars than our European counterparts.

Then, as if peoples prayers were being answered, the Government finally agrees and and intends to make manufacturers give the British public a better deal on new cars.

And how do we react? Do we all shout hurrah! and have street parties? No, everybody starts to whinge on about residuals, and how hard done to we are again.

Second hand car values will drop, but not as badly as new car prices. You may lose money on your pride and joy that you only got 12 months ago, but next time you buy, you'll be able to recoup most of that loss, or upgrade to a better model because it is now within your price range.

Anyone who can afford upward of £22k for a new car is reasonably well off. Unfortunately, most people are not in this position, and have to buy either crappy little cars brand new, or old cars. This change will bring better, safer ('cause they are newer) motoring to many people.

Above all this will mean a better deal for the British consumer. You know what they say "No pain, no gain". You lot want your cake and eat it.

Dave Mackey

Not sure if this has already been mentioned eleswhee on the BBS but DC Cook will get you a full UK spec Turbo Delivered to your front door from £15495 you can even upgrade to full 3 year warranty check them out at

frisby

Good to see the BBS up and runnig again

Anyway I find the best way to gauge car prices/amount for sale is to do a search on autotrader or topmarques based on certain price brackets e.g 8k to 10k or 10k to 15k.

There are loads of Scoobies in the 8 to 10k price range now.....mainly 5 door sportswagons but I found a 4dr 95 for £8250ish with 17" speedlines.

In the 10 to 15k bracket, there 98R's starting to show with great regularity...probably due to the current buzz of euro imports making nearly new cars hard to shift....

However the most noticable thing is the difference in the range of prices for similar cars....a 98R for £14,000 but people are still trying to shift them privately for £18,000.

Things will only get worse with P1's on the way and the possiblity of cheaper UK cars from europe and dealers having to lower prices.

Still if you buy a car for re-sale value your always going to be dissapointed eventually......Its a car so drive it.

laters

stu

JohnS

iTrader: (1)

I too had the same thoughts about 2nd hand values with the P1 coming in, and my own feelings were that if I was going to get a new car, I would do it now whilst I could still get a reasonable amount for my existing car.

Its unlikely that the price of new Imprezas will come down in the near future, and 2nd hand values are dropping virtually on a weekly basis, but not really worse off than any other make of car.

I would still say that Impreza have very good resale values compared to other cars. OK, a 98MY car may only be worth 15 - 16k as a trade in, but that's only a 5 - 6k drop in two years, and only 25 - 30% loss in value, for tow years fun motoring. That has to be good value for money, when you consider you could buy something a 2.0 Vectra, and lose 6 - 7k in the first year alone, and more than 50% in the first two years.

I even know someone who bought a very expensive Merc, on the basis of solid resale values, and was horrified when his dealer offered him 8k less for it 1 year and 5,000 miles later!

2nd hand prices are very much a case of supply and demand. When there was a long waiting list for new cars, 2nd hand ones were more desirable. Now that the supply has increased over the past few years, both Subaru UK selling more cars, and cars being imported from Europe, and the grey imports, demand has dropped, and people are less willing to pay near list price for a year old car, when they can get a new one in a few weeks time.

As happens with other makes of performance car, I would expect that prices of the earlier cars will fall down to about the 8 to 10k mark (depending on condition etc), and then stabilise around there. Newer cars will fall down to just above this level, with each year being worth approx 1k more than a car a year older.

So if you have a 98MY car just now, which is worth about 15k, if you keep it for a few years, it will may be worth about 11 - 12k come selling time.

I have heard of one MY99 car on a V plate selling for 16k (base car with no extras apart from met paint), as the driver had to sell it quickly, and took the first cash offer.

However, the most shocking story was of a chap who imported one from Holland for about 16k all paid, and tried to make a quick profit by selling the car for about 20k in various publications (advertised as UK spec, and "not a Japanese import"). With no interest, he took the car to a few Subaru dealers, two of which refused to touch it, and one offered 12k for it. That was 4k depreciation in 2 months! Wisely he has decided to keep the car now, and not sell it.....

Remember, you only lose money on a car when you come to sell it. If you keep it for a few years, then yes it loses value, but you are not losing money.

dsmith

I think Scooby residuals are suffering but will not be affected by the recent government annoucement as it was intended more for the fleet type cars. The vectras and mondeos will fall but the forecourt price of a new impreza will not change much as they don't sell to the fleets in anything near the numbers of mundanos etc.

The affect of Imports is a different thing entirely. I bought my MY95 last year and paid £15K mainly for the spec - Prodrive interior air con etc. and at the time was nervous of an import. A year on I doubt I would have made the same decision. For only a little more money I can now get a european new import The market for 17K-19K nearly new cars on a subaru forecourt must dissappear!
Add the greater numbers of second hand cars all round into the equation and I would expect this to have a far greater affect on UK list prices.

The range which was once strung from 14K to 24K (including STis) will readjust downwards and compress a little. I hate to think what mine is now worth but However I look at it it is still great value for the enjoyment and performance. Personally I can't wait untill I change in a couple of years time. I will have a bit more money to spend and it looks like whether you go for a Jap Import,European Import or UK, by that time I will be getting an absolute bargain !




[This message has been edited by dsmith (edited 11-04-2000).]

MorayMackenzie

I have always known cars cost money, especially with our successive governments anti-car pro-treasury policies... Fortunately I am in a position where I can choose the car I really want to drive, rather than the car that will retain most value and drink the least grossly overtaxed fuel.

I, for one, am glad for the large number of british motorists (some of whom make efforts to remain awake when driving, I am sure! ) who will benefit from the removal of the UK motor industries monopolistic price fixing scam/scheme that has been ripping the british public of for quite a while. Ok, I personally will loose some of my "investment's" value, but I get to do get to drive it every day!

Moray
(800! wow...)

steve McCulloch

Moray - sti owners should not be hit that hard. Afterall we aren't getting as ripped off as the UK spec owners. Its not as if you can go out and buy an sti 6 for 30% below retail in Holland like you can for the UK spec ones.

The UK drivers should really be selling now to avoid huge losses - admitted though the P1 will cause more of a glut and reduce prices but I would not buy it - not because its a UK special edition but because I personally prefer the 4 door for convenience

Steve

adge

iTrader: (22)

Recently sold my april MY98 with FSSH, A/Con,Clifford Alarm 50X, 6CD(£2,300 in total) extras on £19,765 when new, OK it had 46K on the clock but I could only get £13K private, trade in against my new MY00 only offered £12K. Still is not as bad as if it had been a Mondeo or Vectra. If you want to sell you're going to have to be realistic and not hold out for silly money, especially when you can get an import for £16K ish

Yex

Interesting thread this one - particularly for those of us waiting for a P1 to be delivered

I had an estimated/agreed trade-in value for my car of c£16,000 with my dealer when I went down to arrange the finance for the P1. My car is a silver MY98 (August) 4 door and he will get it back fully maintained by supplier with c18,000 miles on the clock and the standard exhaust and stereo re-installed. The 10 stack CD/stereo will go in the P1 and the Scoobysport back box will be put up for offers in the for sale section.

However, I am becoming concerned with what my dealer will offer me when I do go down to complete the final details of the transaction. After all there is a finite limit to what I am prepared to lose on a car deal.

I will keep the list up to date with my trade, and would be interested to hear how other people get on when they part-ex against their P1.

Regards

Yex

AndyMc

I think the new model shape cars will have a big effect on the old shape prices.
For example when the Escort Cosworth came out the price of the Saphire Cosy dropped like a stone,however the price firmed up a couple of years later.A mate of mine bought one just after the drop and sold for more money 2 years later.

I also find the prices in the Auto Trader etc are normally a fair bit higher than they actually sell for.I would think my sept 98 UK would be worth about 15K pounds despite Auto trader prices of more than 17K.

I think we just have to face the fact that there are many more cars on the second hand market now, chasing the same number of buyers

Time for bed

Andy

Blow Dog

Hmm...

I still think that the residuals of 2nd hand cars will always be dictated by UK dealer proposals.
I took my car in for a p/ex on a nearly new UK car, just to get a guide as to how much I would get for mine.

I'll just say I was shocked. I paid £15k 6 months ago for my UK97 car, dealer offered me £11.5k p/ex. What annoyed me was that they were still charging premium prices for nearly new scoobies, a blue T reg for £21995, yet they were paying peanuts for p/ex.

In my book, if you are gonna pay premium, then you should charge premium. I am really getting annoyed by this holier than thou approach demonstrated by Subaru dealers, and this reflects on the market in general.

Cem
P.S. Did anyone read that Subaru were one of the only manufacturers that werent prepared to budge on their prices to meet EU standards. Greedy *******s.

Dr Hu

Having heard from a reliable source that the new Impreza is uglier than the ugly winner in a ugly contest, has been on a serious lard binge and has several more bucketfuls of emission crap bolted to the engine to dull performance then I reckon current model Impreza Turbo residuals will be as firm as Vicki Butler-Hendersons wotsits.......

IMHO of course...

BHORT

Blow dog,

Did you tell your dealer if he did not show some sort of compromise that you would buy from an importer. I noticed that you can get a brand new turbo from carbusters for around £17500. Unless Subaru dealers improve their approach then that is where I will be going next. They can not have their cake and eat it anymore even with a very good value product as the impreza turbo is.

Brendan

Trout

iTrader: (1)

Steve, et al,

the market is not that rosy for STis either. There was a Version IV in Autocar this week, 98 on an R - £16,000 with less than 30K miles.

There are a number of Sti Vs that have been sold for around £18-19K - although I reckon that the Sti market will stregthen - especially for Vs with Possum as the fuel worry is gone and getting new/s/h late STis is about to get a whole lot more difficult.


But the best bit to me - Is a P1 really worth TWO European Imprezas 'cos that what the question really is.

Euro Turbo - £14-16K depending on source 12 week delivery

UK Turbo - £22K 12 week delivery

STi V/VI new - £24-27K immediate delivery

P1 - £32K - delivery - you're having a laugh!

Cheers,

R

[This message has been edited by Rannoch (edited 13-04-2000).]

chuckster

At least we can always rely on JD power to try and perk up our residuals!
Charles

Blow Dog

Brendan,
Thats exactly what I said to him. I said "You are trying to have your cake and eat it." I then told him that I was offended and took his offer as an insult and would not be persuing a purchase from his forecourt. As far as I'm concerned, I will never buy from a UK dealer. It is a complete con.

Showtime

Interesting comments from the Uk dealers and their 'insulting offers'...but didn't dealers always offer crap part ex prices..on any car..they make the profit on your car and the car they sell. But it's no coincidence that car sales dropped by 10% last Qtr and Import sale ROSE by 10%..guess where joe public is going.

Sad fact is tho, dealers know we can't shift our cars for forecourt money, thats why they got yer by the gools..bummer

steve McCulloch

Dave - I reckon I'll be blowing the residual value on the sti 5 anyway by extensive mods over the next 6 months - who knows.

I am also toying with the idea of having a nice, cheap normal spec turbo from Belgium/Holland - I will buy direct - I have had quotes around ~£14.5k (about £15.5-£17k if through agents)

It will be very intersting to see how the value of the import is affected by the personal import changes - hopefully this will lift the second hand values.

Interesting analysis on the P1 - had not thought about it like that. Cant see how a P1 is worth 2 normal turbo's - you should be able to get similar power to a P1 with an exhaust/filter and Possum - and invest in some 17 inches when your tyres were down - and get some money back on the 16's - so that the overall cost of all the above is miminised - Hmmmm.. if I get an imported normal car will I be able to keep it standard!

Mick

iTrader: (1)

I blame it all on Johns April Fool on the 22B bulletin board ! - The residuals only started dropping after that!!!!!!!!!!!!

I nearly rushed out, sold me Scooby there and then and bought an XR2i

(- Fortunately I got there after Lee had embarased himself! )

Mick

[This message has been edited by Mick (edited 13-04-2000).]

Trout

iTrader: (1)

Steve,

you know that you would not be able to keep it unmodded - but at £15k?

I see that Sunil has 319ft/lb on a MY99 UK car with Possum and straight thru exhaust - tempting init

R

BHORT

For me one of the problems is that I am more reluctant to spend more money on improving my car, (I was going to improve the brakes to Brembo or AP racing) as the £1500 that I was going to spend will now more likely go towards covering the greater fall in value of the car. I would like some Brembos or AP racing brakes but will have more trouble justifying this to myself if I can not move them onto my next car. Will those kits fit on to the new model impreza, if so then I may still be persuaded.

Brendan