Weather forecasting: again!!!
17 January 2013, 08:17 AM
#1
Weather forecasting: again!!!
Two questions:
I have two weather pages bookmarked. The Metoffice one gives this cold snap not going much above zero for the next nine days
Meanwhile, an American site says +6deg next week.
How can they be SO different?
And secondly, the Metoffice site says a min of -1 last night, my outside thermometer says it reached -8. They were even saying that it might get as low as that on the BBC.
Why the difference?
I have two weather pages bookmarked. The Metoffice one gives this cold snap not going much above zero for the next nine days
Meanwhile, an American site says +6deg next week.
How can they be SO different?
And secondly, the Metoffice site says a min of -1 last night, my outside thermometer says it reached -8. They were even saying that it might get as low as that on the BBC.
Why the difference?
17 January 2013, 11:18 AM
#7
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http://www.weatherspark.com is where it's at. Norway based and more accurate than the Met Office by a mile.
The Met Office is another huge waste of money in the UK!
The Met Office is another huge waste of money in the UK!
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17 January 2013, 12:17 PM
#8
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They only predicted with a stated moderately low levels of probability.
It's your fault if you don't read what they really say, and/or get your weather forecast from the Express
17 January 2013, 12:26 PM
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I'm afraid that is the problem.
Most people don't listen to the weather forecast properly and even when they do they don't understand the differences that can happen due to local conditions.
It got to a minimum of -1.3 in our yard last night, but -5.4 up the other end of our garden (50m away). I understand why that happens.
But if I watched the TV forecast that has 2 minutes to convey three days of weather, and a single temperature forecast for last night covering the majority of the SW of England, the chances of actually getting it right for either of my two thermometers is pretty low.
As for the Met Office being a waste of money, does anyone know how much money they actually save for the country?
Most people don't listen to the weather forecast properly and even when they do they don't understand the differences that can happen due to local conditions.
It got to a minimum of -1.3 in our yard last night, but -5.4 up the other end of our garden (50m away). I understand why that happens.
But if I watched the TV forecast that has 2 minutes to convey three days of weather, and a single temperature forecast for last night covering the majority of the SW of England, the chances of actually getting it right for either of my two thermometers is pretty low.
As for the Met Office being a waste of money, does anyone know how much money they actually save for the country?
17 January 2013, 12:33 PM
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If you surf a lot, you become a little too interested in forecasts (mostly for wind)...
One weird thing - I have a decent outdoor thermometer and have noticed both here and in the last house that the temperature nearly always dips about 0.5 to 1 degree just before gets light - it's really odd!
One weird thing - I have a decent outdoor thermometer and have noticed both here and in the last house that the temperature nearly always dips about 0.5 to 1 degree just before gets light - it's really odd!
17 January 2013, 12:43 PM
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Its due to heat loss. It starts before dark - as the sun sets and only starts to reverse well after sunrise as there is a lag in air temp as the energy from the sun starts to warm the ground beyond its cooler state. This means that the temp can be at its lowest any time from just after sun rise until 2 hours later depending on wx.
17 January 2013, 01:19 PM
#13
They stated on TV that we would have two mild winters: we didn't, we got record snowfalls and record low temperatures.
100% wrong, sorry. As are you...again!
And as for the Express, nope, don't read any of the rags.
17 January 2013, 01:35 PM
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Its due to heat loss. It starts before dark - as the sun sets and only starts to reverse well after sunrise as there is a lag in air temp as the energy from the sun starts to warm the ground beyond its cooler state. This means that the temp can be at its lowest any time from just after sun rise until 2 hours later depending on wx.
17 January 2013, 01:50 PM
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We shoulden't have to try and read into anything, this isn't a crystal ******* ball we're talking about here.
It really does surprise me why the Government keep giving these useless ***** money considering they coulden't be further from the truth if they wanted too, Is the Metoffice run by someone in a high position within the Government by any chance?
17 January 2013, 02:02 PM
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Only you could could come out with a lame a$$ comment like that.
We shoulden't have to try and read into anything, this isn't a crystal ******* ball we're talking about here.
It really does surprise me why the Government keep giving these useless ***** money considering they coulden't be further from the truth if they wanted too, Is the Metoffice run by someone in a high position within the Government by any chance?
We shoulden't have to try and read into anything, this isn't a crystal ******* ball we're talking about here.
It really does surprise me why the Government keep giving these useless ***** money considering they coulden't be further from the truth if they wanted too, Is the Metoffice run by someone in a high position within the Government by any chance?
Nonsense
17 January 2013, 02:06 PM
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They stated on TV that we would have two "barbecue summers": we didn't, in fact last summer was the wettest on record.
They stated on TV that we would have two mild winters: we didn't, we got record snowfalls and record low temperatures.
100% wrong, sorry. As are you...again!
And as for the Express, nope, don't read any of the rags.
They stated on TV that we would have two mild winters: we didn't, we got record snowfalls and record low temperatures.
100% wrong, sorry. As are you...again!
And as for the Express, nope, don't read any of the rags.
They'd only be 100% wrong if they said there was a 100% probability of a hotter than average summer, they didn't say anything of the sought though.
btw, nobody has mention the fact that it was the Met Office, who called tomorrows whether long before any of the much trumpeted (on here) alternative forecasts !
Last edited by Martin2005; 17 January 2013 at 02:08 PM.
17 January 2013, 02:07 PM
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Only you could could come out with a lame a$$ comment like that.
We shoulden't have to try and read into anything, this isn't a crystal ******* ball we're talking about here.
It really does surprise me why the Government keep giving these useless ***** money considering they coulden't be further from the truth if they wanted too, Is the Metoffice run by someone in a high position within the Government by any chance?
We shoulden't have to try and read into anything, this isn't a crystal ******* ball we're talking about here.
It really does surprise me why the Government keep giving these useless ***** money considering they coulden't be further from the truth if they wanted too, Is the Metoffice run by someone in a high position within the Government by any chance?
17 January 2013, 02:11 PM
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Would be interested to know who exactly said we would have "two BBQ summers" and two mild winters. Was it someone on the BBC? Was it something you read in a newspaper? The whole debacle about a BBQ summer was several years ago now, so no idea what you are on about now.
As for being wrong and hence shouldn't have any money from the government. Do you have any statistics on how wrong they are? Or is this just your opinion?
As for being wrong and hence shouldn't have any money from the government. Do you have any statistics on how wrong they are? Or is this just your opinion?
17 January 2013, 02:12 PM
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17 January 2013, 02:14 PM
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Would be interested to know who exactly said we would have "two BBQ summers" and two mild winters. Was it someone on the BBC? Was it something you read in a newspaper? The whole debacle about a BBQ summer was several years ago now, so no idea what you are on about now.
As for being wrong and hence shouldn't have any money from the government. Do you have any statistics on how wrong they are? Or is this just your opinion?
As for being wrong and hence shouldn't have any money from the government. Do you have any statistics on how wrong they are? Or is this just your opinion?
17 January 2013, 02:15 PM
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Your right, I 'should' start 'not' listening to the forecast, but try reading into it a bit more.
******* trumpet!
17 January 2013, 02:18 PM
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17 January 2013, 02:21 PM
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Martin, I have hairy *****, not crystal ***** FFS.
If Met Office tell me it's going to rain then I'm inclined to believe them rather than sit and try and work out if they are telling the truth or not you ******* dumplin.
If Met Office tell me it's going to rain then I'm inclined to believe them rather than sit and try and work out if they are telling the truth or not you ******* dumplin.
17 January 2013, 02:25 PM
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This is actually what the Met Office said in 2009
At the time the chief meteorologist, Ewen McCallum, said there was a 50 per cent chance of above- average temperatures and a 30 per cent chance of average temperatures. The chances of the summer being a washout were around 30 per cent, he declared.
Last edited by Martin2005; 17 January 2013 at 02:41 PM.
17 January 2013, 02:31 PM
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And I certainly only defend the system to a certain extent, I'm all too aware of the issue we face, I just won't continually conflate, exaggerate and spin to make a dogmatic point
17 January 2013, 02:32 PM
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17 January 2013, 02:41 PM
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The fact remains they predicted two summers with a higher than average temperature and two mild winters and they were wrong about all of them.
What is it about that that you do not understand? And I am the thick one?
