More Trouble Brewing in Europe?
#1
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More Trouble Brewing in Europe?
Greek 2 year yields 30%, 10 year 18%. Making new highs all the time.
Spanish and Portuguese yields on the rise too, although nothing quite as significant.
Spanish and Portuguese yields on the rise too, although nothing quite as significant.
#2
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#6
Can any clever economics people spell out the consequences of this?
Obviously it would be very bad for the Euro (and Euro zone), but why would it make our Governments creditors run for the hills?
Obviously it would be very bad for the Euro (and Euro zone), but why would it make our Governments creditors run for the hills?
#7
Can any clever economics people spell out the consequences of this?
Obviously it would be very bad for the Euro (and Euro zone), but why would it make our Governments creditors run for the hills?
Obviously it would be very bad for the Euro (and Euro zone), but why would it make our Governments creditors run for the hills?
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#8
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The Greeks are about to plunge Europe into the abyss!!
Closely followed by Portugal, Ireland and Spain ......
This is going to make the last 'difficulty' look like a walk in the park!!
Closely followed by Portugal, Ireland and Spain ......
This is going to make the last 'difficulty' look like a walk in the park!!
#10
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Mr ***** wants to stimulate the economy by cutting VAT.
The effect would be people spending and paying taxes, re-couping the lost VAT and encouraging growth.
Personally, I would rather hit the nail on the head - get everyone to pay 50% Income Tax (why should I be the only one!!) for 2 years ..... that would solve the problem and we could revert back to normal taxation levels.
The effect would be people spending and paying taxes, re-couping the lost VAT and encouraging growth.
Personally, I would rather hit the nail on the head - get everyone to pay 50% Income Tax (why should I be the only one!!) for 2 years ..... that would solve the problem and we could revert back to normal taxation levels.
#12
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Q Are people right to say this could be the next Lehman's?
It certainly could. As is the case in every country, Greek banks' balance sheets are heavily invested in the country's government debt. Should that debt suddenly be worth half its face value, the Greek banking system would become insolvent overnight. This, in turn, would trigger major losses for some of Europe's biggest banks, some of which, particularly in France and Germany, are perilously undercapitalised. This threat may explain the ECB's reluctance to countenance even a soft default.
Q Does the Greek situation make the collapse of the euro inevitable?
It raises major existential questions for the euro project – and not merely because the straitjacket of euro membership has so limited Greece's options in responding to the crisis. The major counter-argument to the euro was that it is impossible to have a currency union without a fiscal union. In other words, without a central authority with the power to tax and spend, it is impossible to get an area as large as the eurozone pulling in the same economic direction. And that was what came to pass: over the past decade and a half, Greece and many Mediterranean neighbours (not to mention Ireland) have borrowed and spent too much while Germany has saved too much. The idea that such divergent economies could issue currency that was supposedly worth precisely the same value everywhere is unfeasible.
It is difficult, in economic terms at least, to imagine the euro surviving in its current state – particularly because Greece's problems are shared by other countries. Granted, the euro is a political project. But the scale of anger in Berlin at the prospect of having to transfer billions to its Mediterranean neighbours purely to safeguard the euro project is such that it makes stark the question of whether there really is the public will to keep it alive.
Q What does this mean for Britain?
While Britons can allow themselves some smugness that the country did not join the euro, and so was spared direct involvement in the crisis, the implied risks for the UK remain significant. The threat of losing money through IMF loans pales into comparison with the broader impact a Greek economic collapse could have on the UK economy. Europe is the UK's biggest trading area; a crisis would undermine British exports. Moreover, the collapse of Greek finance could well trigger similar implosions in Spain and Ireland, both of which have intimate links with the British financial system. More generally, any sort of sovereign default would raise further questions about highly indebted, deeply imbalanced economies around the world. No prizes for guessing which green and pleasant land falls into this category.
It certainly could. As is the case in every country, Greek banks' balance sheets are heavily invested in the country's government debt. Should that debt suddenly be worth half its face value, the Greek banking system would become insolvent overnight. This, in turn, would trigger major losses for some of Europe's biggest banks, some of which, particularly in France and Germany, are perilously undercapitalised. This threat may explain the ECB's reluctance to countenance even a soft default.
Q Does the Greek situation make the collapse of the euro inevitable?
It raises major existential questions for the euro project – and not merely because the straitjacket of euro membership has so limited Greece's options in responding to the crisis. The major counter-argument to the euro was that it is impossible to have a currency union without a fiscal union. In other words, without a central authority with the power to tax and spend, it is impossible to get an area as large as the eurozone pulling in the same economic direction. And that was what came to pass: over the past decade and a half, Greece and many Mediterranean neighbours (not to mention Ireland) have borrowed and spent too much while Germany has saved too much. The idea that such divergent economies could issue currency that was supposedly worth precisely the same value everywhere is unfeasible.
It is difficult, in economic terms at least, to imagine the euro surviving in its current state – particularly because Greece's problems are shared by other countries. Granted, the euro is a political project. But the scale of anger in Berlin at the prospect of having to transfer billions to its Mediterranean neighbours purely to safeguard the euro project is such that it makes stark the question of whether there really is the public will to keep it alive.
Q What does this mean for Britain?
While Britons can allow themselves some smugness that the country did not join the euro, and so was spared direct involvement in the crisis, the implied risks for the UK remain significant. The threat of losing money through IMF loans pales into comparison with the broader impact a Greek economic collapse could have on the UK economy. Europe is the UK's biggest trading area; a crisis would undermine British exports. Moreover, the collapse of Greek finance could well trigger similar implosions in Spain and Ireland, both of which have intimate links with the British financial system. More generally, any sort of sovereign default would raise further questions about highly indebted, deeply imbalanced economies around the world. No prizes for guessing which green and pleasant land falls into this category.
#13
Can we still blame Gordon Brown for everything?
#14
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iTrader: (7)
Mr ***** wants to stimulate the economy by cutting VAT.
The effect would be people spending and paying taxes, re-couping the lost VAT and encouraging growth.
Personally, I would rather hit the nail on the head - get everyone to pay 50% Income Tax (why should I be the only one!!) for 2 years ..... that would solve the problem and we could revert back to normal taxation levels.
The effect would be people spending and paying taxes, re-couping the lost VAT and encouraging growth.
Personally, I would rather hit the nail on the head - get everyone to pay 50% Income Tax (why should I be the only one!!) for 2 years ..... that would solve the problem and we could revert back to normal taxation levels.
Jura
#15
Mr ***** wants to stimulate the economy by cutting VAT.
The effect would be people spending and paying taxes, re-couping the lost VAT and encouraging growth.
Personally, I would rather hit the nail on the head - get everyone to pay 50% Income Tax (why should I be the only one!!) for 2 years ..... that would solve the problem and we could revert back to normal taxation levels.
The effect would be people spending and paying taxes, re-couping the lost VAT and encouraging growth.
Personally, I would rather hit the nail on the head - get everyone to pay 50% Income Tax (why should I be the only one!!) for 2 years ..... that would solve the problem and we could revert back to normal taxation levels.
The natural reaction of the population to a 10% or 25% loss of disposable income due to an increase in income tax is to reduce outgoings.
This goes against your support for Labours idea of cutting VAT to encourage spending.
So which side of the fence are you actually on?
By all means bait the naive into thinking you have some economic understanding and are a 50% tax payer, but for those of us who have a degree of common sense, please do not expect us to take your drivel with anything other than a pinch of salt.
#16
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I struggle with the concept that anyone earning over £150,000 would not choose to spend money wisely when purchasing a car?? That show's simply that you would waste money on 'badges' and 'image' given my earning power.
#17
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On the second point .... we either grow out of the deficit (by cutting taxes and putting money in peoples pockets).
OR we tax our way out of deficit ...... we need to do one or the other.
24 months of a flat rate of tax at 50% (with a Tax Allowance of £20,000 to protect the poor) would, within 2 years, remove us from this mess.
OR we tax our way out of deficit ...... we need to do one or the other.
24 months of a flat rate of tax at 50% (with a Tax Allowance of £20,000 to protect the poor) would, within 2 years, remove us from this mess.
#19
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tell me about it. flying out to Pizarra on Tuesday. Euro today was 1.1154
#22
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greece is the product of an over ambitious government coupled with the lowest tax take in the western world
always end in tears
germany should bail it out -- but insist on Rhodes as compensation, might focus the greek mind
always end in tears
germany should bail it out -- but insist on Rhodes as compensation, might focus the greek mind
Last edited by hodgy0_2; 16 June 2011 at 09:54 PM.
#23
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Isn't the UK doing quite well with a rate of about 3%?
Doesn't that show that as painful as things are the govt is taking the correct steps to re balance the economy
#25
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I suppose we'll have to wait and find out. I'm not sure how much that rate proves - the U.S. 10yr is around the same level and look at the way they're approaching it. It would be good, but the cynic in me (99.9% ) can't see it happening so easily with the way things are currently going. It's just too hard to believe considering the present state of affairs and what has recently happened. But I suppose there have been periods in every downturn in history where people have been much more pessimistic than they perhaps should be. Is this one of those times? Who knows.
Last edited by GlesgaKiss; 16 June 2011 at 10:17 PM. Reason: Typos!
#26
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There was never really a solution to Greece (and quite possibly Ireland and Portugal) going under. Their debts are so big that the IMF simply cannot afford to bail them out.
I expect lots of smaller token bail-outs will take place, but this only eases the pain as they go under. Expect they'll have to return to having sovereign currencies again so that they can control interest rates to suit their economies (or lack of..)
I expect lots of smaller token bail-outs will take place, but this only eases the pain as they go under. Expect they'll have to return to having sovereign currencies again so that they can control interest rates to suit their economies (or lack of..)
#27
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An "interesting" read ... http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2...s-lexicon.html ...
and ... http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2...ut-french.html ...
Dave
... So again, why is this slow, 'orderly' torture of Greece being advocated?
I think the answer is that for as long as the 'orderly default' plan can be enforced upon the Greeks it provides the banks with the delicious prospect of asset stripping an entire nation.
Because that is exaclty what is going on in Greece . What the 'orderly' default provides is a window of opportunity when predatory financial players can strip Greece and in future maybe Portugal and Ireland as well, of everything the banks could never get their hands on in any other circumstance. ...
I think the answer is that for as long as the 'orderly default' plan can be enforced upon the Greeks it provides the banks with the delicious prospect of asset stripping an entire nation.
Because that is exaclty what is going on in Greece . What the 'orderly' default provides is a window of opportunity when predatory financial players can strip Greece and in future maybe Portugal and Ireland as well, of everything the banks could never get their hands on in any other circumstance. ...
... The paymasters of the EU and the ECB, France and Germany, house the banks with the most to lose if Greece defaults. Most recent estimates are that French banks are exposed to €53 Billion of Greek debt while German banks have €34 billion. ...
#28
Allied to that, of course, is the fact that individuals with that level of income rarely mention it..............You on the other hand...
#29
Letting Greece fail creates a certain credit event where a lot of investors will lose everything. The investors include a lot of European banks who would then need to be bailed out. Propping Greece up will likely only delay the collapse and make it bigger when it comes, but under the right circumstances might buy them enough room to get their house in order.