Notices
Non Scooby Related Anything Non-Scooby related

More Trouble Brewing in Europe?

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 16 June 2011, 06:16 PM
  #1  
GlesgaKiss
Scooby Regular
Thread Starter
 
GlesgaKiss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Scotland
Posts: 6,284
Likes: 0
Received 4 Likes on 4 Posts
Exclamation More Trouble Brewing in Europe?

Greek 2 year yields 30%, 10 year 18%. Making new highs all the time.

Spanish and Portuguese yields on the rise too, although nothing quite as significant.
Old 16 June 2011, 06:37 PM
  #2  
JTaylor
Scooby Regular
 
JTaylor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Home
Posts: 14,758
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by GlesgaKiss
Greek 2 year yields 30%, 10 year 18%. Making new highs all the time.

Spanish and Portuguese yields on the rise too, although nothing quite as significant.
We're flying to Skiathos for a wedding tomorrow morning, I hope they don't go bust!
Old 16 June 2011, 07:57 PM
  #4  
alcazar
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (2)
 
alcazar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Rl'yeh
Posts: 40,781
Received 27 Likes on 25 Posts
Default

Don't worry....that nice kind Mr Darling signed us up to pay to protect other EC states, even though we aren't in the Euro..........

And if the Euro goes, the £ won't be far behind, given how low the £ is against the €
Old 16 June 2011, 08:12 PM
  #5  
PaulC72
Scooby Regular
 
PaulC72's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: RIP Tam.
Posts: 5,108
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

oh well never mind it couldbe worse I suppose Labour could be in power.
Old 16 June 2011, 08:38 PM
  #6  
tony de wonderful
Scooby Regular
 
tony de wonderful's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 10,329
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Can any clever economics people spell out the consequences of this?

Obviously it would be very bad for the Euro (and Euro zone), but why would it make our Governments creditors run for the hills?
Old 16 June 2011, 08:39 PM
  #7  
tony de wonderful
Scooby Regular
 
tony de wonderful's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 10,329
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Can any clever economics people spell out the consequences of this?

Obviously it would be very bad for the Euro (and Euro zone), but why would it make our Governments creditors run for the hills?
Old 16 June 2011, 08:46 PM
  #8  
pslewis
Scooby Regular
 
pslewis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Old Codgers Home
Posts: 32,398
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Default

The Greeks are about to plunge Europe into the abyss!!

Closely followed by Portugal, Ireland and Spain ......

This is going to make the last 'difficulty' look like a walk in the park!!
Old 16 June 2011, 08:54 PM
  #9  
dpb
Scooby Regular
 
dpb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: riding the crest of a wave ...
Posts: 46,493
Likes: 0
Received 13 Likes on 12 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by alcazar
Don't worry....that nice kind Mr Darling signed us up to pay to protect other EC states, even though we aren't in the Euro..........

And if the Euro goes, the £ won't be far behind, given how low the £ is against the €
Can you imagine our situation if Labia and Ed 'Ballsup' were presently in charge

- do you know he STILL wants us to spend money we dont have
Old 16 June 2011, 08:57 PM
  #10  
pslewis
Scooby Regular
 
pslewis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Old Codgers Home
Posts: 32,398
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Default

Mr ***** wants to stimulate the economy by cutting VAT.

The effect would be people spending and paying taxes, re-couping the lost VAT and encouraging growth.

Personally, I would rather hit the nail on the head - get everyone to pay 50% Income Tax (why should I be the only one!!) for 2 years ..... that would solve the problem and we could revert back to normal taxation levels.
Old 16 June 2011, 09:02 PM
  #11  
dpb
Scooby Regular
 
dpb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: riding the crest of a wave ...
Posts: 46,493
Likes: 0
Received 13 Likes on 12 Posts
Default

Thank god neither of you will ever take the reins of power
Old 16 June 2011, 09:07 PM
  #12  
GlesgaKiss
Scooby Regular
Thread Starter
 
GlesgaKiss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Scotland
Posts: 6,284
Likes: 0
Received 4 Likes on 4 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by tony de wonderful
Can any clever economics people spell out the consequences of this?

Obviously it would be very bad for the Euro (and Euro zone), but why would it make our Governments creditors run for the hills?
An interesting article - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-going-on.html

Q Are people right to say this could be the next Lehman's?
It certainly could. As is the case in every country, Greek banks' balance sheets are heavily invested in the country's government debt. Should that debt suddenly be worth half its face value, the Greek banking system would become insolvent overnight. This, in turn, would trigger major losses for some of Europe's biggest banks, some of which, particularly in France and Germany, are perilously undercapitalised. This threat may explain the ECB's reluctance to countenance even a soft default.

Q Does the Greek situation make the collapse of the euro inevitable?
It raises major existential questions for the euro project – and not merely because the straitjacket of euro membership has so limited Greece's options in responding to the crisis. The major counter-argument to the euro was that it is impossible to have a currency union without a fiscal union. In other words, without a central authority with the power to tax and spend, it is impossible to get an area as large as the eurozone pulling in the same economic direction. And that was what came to pass: over the past decade and a half, Greece and many Mediterranean neighbours (not to mention Ireland) have borrowed and spent too much while Germany has saved too much. The idea that such divergent economies could issue currency that was supposedly worth precisely the same value everywhere is unfeasible.
It is difficult, in economic terms at least, to imagine the euro surviving in its current state – particularly because Greece's problems are shared by other countries. Granted, the euro is a political project. But the scale of anger in Berlin at the prospect of having to transfer billions to its Mediterranean neighbours purely to safeguard the euro project is such that it makes stark the question of whether there really is the public will to keep it alive.

Q What does this mean for Britain?
While Britons can allow themselves some smugness that the country did not join the euro, and so was spared direct involvement in the crisis, the implied risks for the UK remain significant. The threat of losing money through IMF loans pales into comparison with the broader impact a Greek economic collapse could have on the UK economy. Europe is the UK's biggest trading area; a crisis would undermine British exports. Moreover, the collapse of Greek finance could well trigger similar implosions in Spain and Ireland, both of which have intimate links with the British financial system. More generally, any sort of sovereign default would raise further questions about highly indebted, deeply imbalanced economies around the world. No prizes for guessing which green and pleasant land falls into this category.
Old 16 June 2011, 09:09 PM
  #13  
lozgti1
Scooby Regular
 
lozgti1's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 3,916
Received 71 Likes on 57 Posts
Default

Can we still blame Gordon Brown for everything?
Old 16 June 2011, 09:10 PM
  #14  
jura11
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (7)
 
jura11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: www.slowboy-racing.co.uk
Posts: 10,523
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Default

Originally Posted by pslewis
Mr ***** wants to stimulate the economy by cutting VAT.

The effect would be people spending and paying taxes, re-couping the lost VAT and encouraging growth.

Personally, I would rather hit the nail on the head - get everyone to pay 50% Income Tax (why should I be the only one!!) for 2 years ..... that would solve the problem and we could revert back to normal taxation levels.
From temporary tax will be tax which last forever...



Jura
Old 16 June 2011, 09:18 PM
  #15  
s70rjw
Scooby Senior
iTrader: (2)
 
s70rjw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 5,013
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by pslewis
Mr ***** wants to stimulate the economy by cutting VAT.

The effect would be people spending and paying taxes, re-couping the lost VAT and encouraging growth.

Personally, I would rather hit the nail on the head - get everyone to pay 50% Income Tax (why should I be the only one!!) for 2 years ..... that would solve the problem and we could revert back to normal taxation levels.
People who earn over £150,000 per annum do not drive around in diesel Honda Civics.

The natural reaction of the population to a 10% or 25% loss of disposable income due to an increase in income tax is to reduce outgoings.
This goes against your support for Labours idea of cutting VAT to encourage spending.
So which side of the fence are you actually on?
By all means bait the naive into thinking you have some economic understanding and are a 50% tax payer, but for those of us who have a degree of common sense, please do not expect us to take your drivel with anything other than a pinch of salt.
Old 16 June 2011, 09:28 PM
  #16  
pslewis
Scooby Regular
 
pslewis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Old Codgers Home
Posts: 32,398
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Default

I struggle with the concept that anyone earning over £150,000 would not choose to spend money wisely when purchasing a car?? That show's simply that you would waste money on 'badges' and 'image' given my earning power.
Old 16 June 2011, 09:32 PM
  #17  
pslewis
Scooby Regular
 
pslewis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Old Codgers Home
Posts: 32,398
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Default

On the second point .... we either grow out of the deficit (by cutting taxes and putting money in peoples pockets).

OR we tax our way out of deficit ...... we need to do one or the other.

24 months of a flat rate of tax at 50% (with a Tax Allowance of £20,000 to protect the poor) would, within 2 years, remove us from this mess.
Old 16 June 2011, 09:37 PM
  #18  
FlightMan
Scooby Regular
 
FlightMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Runway two seven right.
Posts: 6,652
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Run for the hills. It's going down!!!!

Old 16 June 2011, 09:45 PM
  #19  
bigsinky
Scooby Regular
 
bigsinky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Sunny BELFAST
Posts: 19,408
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by alcazar
Don't worry....that nice kind Mr Darling signed us up to pay to protect other EC states, even though we aren't in the Euro..........

And if the Euro goes, the £ won't be far behind, given how low the £ is against the €
tell me about it. flying out to Pizarra on Tuesday. Euro today was 1.1154
Old 16 June 2011, 09:50 PM
  #20  
tony de wonderful
Scooby Regular
 
tony de wonderful's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 10,329
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

So should I buy physical gold tomorrow or not?
Old 16 June 2011, 09:53 PM
  #21  
GlesgaKiss
Scooby Regular
Thread Starter
 
GlesgaKiss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Scotland
Posts: 6,284
Likes: 0
Received 4 Likes on 4 Posts
Default

What about guns, ammo, and tinned food!?
Old 16 June 2011, 09:53 PM
  #22  
hodgy0_2
Scooby Regular
 
hodgy0_2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: K
Posts: 15,633
Received 21 Likes on 18 Posts
Default

greece is the product of an over ambitious government coupled with the lowest tax take in the western world

always end in tears

germany should bail it out -- but insist on Rhodes as compensation, might focus the greek mind

Last edited by hodgy0_2; 16 June 2011 at 09:54 PM.
Old 16 June 2011, 10:01 PM
  #23  
Dingdongler
Scooby Regular
 
Dingdongler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: In a house
Posts: 6,345
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Default

Originally Posted by GlesgaKiss
Greek 2 year yields 30%, 10 year 18%. Making new highs all the time.

Spanish and Portuguese yields on the rise too, although nothing quite as significant.

Isn't the UK doing quite well with a rate of about 3%?

Doesn't that show that as painful as things are the govt is taking the correct steps to re balance the economy
Old 16 June 2011, 10:03 PM
  #24  
Dingdongler
Scooby Regular
 
Dingdongler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: In a house
Posts: 6,345
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Default

Originally Posted by tony de wonderful
So should I buy physical gold tomorrow or not?


I did that ages ago. Not sure if I've mentioned that before.....
Old 16 June 2011, 10:14 PM
  #25  
GlesgaKiss
Scooby Regular
Thread Starter
 
GlesgaKiss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Scotland
Posts: 6,284
Likes: 0
Received 4 Likes on 4 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by Dingdongler
Isn't the UK doing quite well with a rate of about 3%?

Doesn't that show that as painful as things are the govt is taking the correct steps to re balance the economy
I suppose we'll have to wait and find out. I'm not sure how much that rate proves - the U.S. 10yr is around the same level and look at the way they're approaching it. It would be good, but the cynic in me (99.9% ) can't see it happening so easily with the way things are currently going. It's just too hard to believe considering the present state of affairs and what has recently happened. But I suppose there have been periods in every downturn in history where people have been much more pessimistic than they perhaps should be. Is this one of those times? Who knows.

Last edited by GlesgaKiss; 16 June 2011 at 10:17 PM. Reason: Typos!
Old 16 June 2011, 10:14 PM
  #26  
Petem95
Scooby Regular
 
Petem95's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Scoobynet
Posts: 5,387
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

There was never really a solution to Greece (and quite possibly Ireland and Portugal) going under. Their debts are so big that the IMF simply cannot afford to bail them out.

I expect lots of smaller token bail-outs will take place, but this only eases the pain as they go under. Expect they'll have to return to having sovereign currencies again so that they can control interest rates to suit their economies (or lack of..)
Old 16 June 2011, 11:06 PM
  #28  
s70rjw
Scooby Senior
iTrader: (2)
 
s70rjw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 5,013
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by pslewis
I struggle with the concept that anyone earning over £150,000 would not choose to spend money wisely when purchasing a car?? That show's simply that you would waste money on 'badges' and 'image' given my earning power.

Allied to that, of course, is the fact that individuals with that level of income rarely mention it..............You on the other hand...
Old 17 June 2011, 12:36 AM
  #29  
Suresh
Scooby Regular
 
Suresh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Posts: 4,622
Received 2 Likes on 1 Post
Default

Letting Greece fail creates a certain credit event where a lot of investors will lose everything. The investors include a lot of European banks who would then need to be bailed out. Propping Greece up will likely only delay the collapse and make it bigger when it comes, but under the right circumstances might buy them enough room to get their house in order.
Old 17 June 2011, 08:07 AM
  #30  
alcazar
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (2)
 
alcazar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Rl'yeh
Posts: 40,781
Received 27 Likes on 25 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by dpb
Can you imagine our situation if Labia and Ed 'Ballsup' were presently in charge

- do you know he STILL wants us to spend money we dont have
Cam-Moron is doing just that. He is spending billions in aid to foreign countries, while cutting the pensioner's heating allowance here and people's pensions too, not to mention anti-cancer drugs.


Quick Reply: More Trouble Brewing in Europe?



All times are GMT +1. The time now is 11:54 PM.