speye91

Some have been asking about this,so here it goes.

Think were into a mild spell for the next 7-10 days.Could be pretty mild in the South,but futher North its going to be no higher than 6oC.Scotland seems to hold onto the Colder air.

So we welcome back the Atlantic for a while,Get your Shorts n T-Shirts out.

Wet and Windy will be the order for next week,it's all there to see on the Forecasts.

What does seem intresting,and the Models seem to be showing,or hinting at,that there is a possibility that the cold will return.Im going to say,back end of January,we will return to colder times again.Possibly equal to December in Coldness.Not sure on the snow yet,but it seems that we could develop a strong Easterly straight from Siberia,that would bring very cold temps.
As with an easterly and the sea temps,the precip is still good enough for a fair amount of Snow,not just the East side of the UK.
This may not happen as i have said,but it's certain to be canny chilly towards the end of the month.
There is alot happening with the Jet Stream,and pressures from the Eastern USA heading into Greenland,that will have an impact on our weather.
So for now nothing much happening,look out to the end of January for a return to the cold.If this Easterly comes off,well it's back to snow shovels and Countrywide standstill again..

f1_fan

iTrader: (9)

Thx ... I think

bigsinky

excellent. a few more days off work with burst pipes, frozen boilers and no water. let's hope that contingency plan that senior managers have been working on doesn't get finished before the end of January

Trout

iTrader: (1)

I am planning to go to New York at the end of Jan - will there be delays at Heathrow?

Dedrater

3cm of snow here today in Wrexham.

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Speye, my sis insists that all this is down to a problem with the gulf stream. IS there any truth in that?

speye91

I Guess your flying from Manchester,so it will be ok.
If your flying anywhere South from that expect a 3 month delay,whilst they clear the 0.5cms from the runway.

Trout

iTrader: (1)

I usually go from Heathrow!!!

Jamie

I hope the snow stays for a bit longer as i am going camping in four weeks time

speye91

Its not the Gulf stream,this tends to wander doon south in our winters,heads back Oop Norf for our Summers.This does factor in our winters,as this is into Europe,is not bothering us much.It does try to creep further North but the colder Jet is keeping it down there.It's what keeps the Atlantic and the Uk mild.

The Jet stream usually comes from West to East,but in November and December it decided to flip and wobble a bit.Resulting in the Jet heading from West to East.This allowed all the cold air and snow in November hitting the Uk.December it decided to shift again,to a more Northerly,resulting in the North and West getting the White stuff.There is signs showing that there is a major shift into Europe with the Jet,and this is going to bring in a Beast from the East.If this does not come off,then a Good Northerly is on the cards..anyway its still going to get cold.

El Nina effect has played a part in our coldest December since records began.


The gulf stream is a huge body of warm water that moves North towards us and Europe.It basically prevents European ports from freezing up,if it was ever to stop we'd sharp know about it.Icebergs off the west coast of Ireland.

A strange fact about the jet stream, is no one knew it even existed until the outbreak of world war 2.

SiPie

Plenty snow here

Dedrater

Get a blog/facebook/twitter/yourownwebspace up speye91.

speye91

Where about in Jockland?

SiPie

10 miles south of Edinburgh. Steady snowfall since 6pm

Cheers

rossyboy

iTrader: (8)

2-3 inches in Aberdeenshire last night, wasn't expecting that.

speye91

Who is enjoying the early Spring?

RA Dunk

ME!!, It's a nice change from the baltic fecking temperatures we have had recently.
























Question is though, how long is it going to last

SiPie

Will turn colder again next week

speye91

Yes....Can't see it being as cold as Nov/Dec.Not just yet anyway.Snowispossible,but wont amount to much just yet.

Back end of the month and early Feb could be very interesting.

Next few days nothing happening,just Wind and Rain for the North West.

Brun

Jan 22nd - Wakefield area - what's the verdict? Nowt important on - got a ride in a Mustang from the church back to my Wedding reception

SiPie

At least 3ft of snow with layer of polished ice underneath

Will rent you my forester ( with winter Tyres .....and White silk ribbon ) for a very low rate (if RWD mustang should struggle)

Wedges sadly non-existent but rest of motor silver, so guess you can claim a minor victory

Good luck to you for your big (snowy) day

Brun

Yay for a wedge victory - it's been coming for about six years hasn't it?
......your Forrester will be my first port of call should the snow come

SiPie

If not even longer ......

Really hope you both gave a great wedding day, good luck

Leslie

Aren't the jet streams, as thermal winds, purely an indication where the boundary between the cold northerly air masses and the warmer tropical air masses meet? If the jet stream is north of us than we should be in warmer air, as it is now.

I always wonder why the jet stream is supposed to modify our weather rather that just be an indication of what it is likely to be.

Les

IWatkins

Spey, its La Nina at the moment, not El Nino.

Les, jet streams are a good indication of probable weather, but they also indicate the position of formation of low and high pressures regions. With careful analysis, you can forecast the position of a forming low pressure, its track and where/when it will fill in.

billythekid

Its ENSO (Southern Oscillation) that can cause so many problems for us.

Its something that I have an interest in for business reasons, and there are a lot of trends and charts to look at.

A good place to start is NOAA

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...enso_advisory/

The PDF below is update each Monday.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

Worth a read.

In the end, the SO (SSTs) is controlled by winds, which are generated from solar activity via convection. Its a full circle so you need to look at some fairly odd data sets to get any idea of long term trending!

Its good fun to do though, but takes a lot of time and you might not see if your predictions are correct - esp compared to say a large £££££££££ super computer!

A very, very good example of this is the floods in Oz. We are in quite a deep La Nina and the charts have been indicating very wet conditions in that area for the last 2-3 months.... hey ho. Same last year with the wild fires, we saw very dry conditions due to a very strong El Nino.

At the moment, IMHO, its not looking too clever... I think we might see -ve SST continue for another 3 months.... thats quite severe.

For us, anything can happen, but we might see normal conditions for the next 3 months, then a dry spell for 2 - 3 months, then wet conditions for the next few months there after.

Only my uneducated guess though!!

Getting back to the start of my post re solar activity, 2012 should see an improvement on 2011 in terms of conditions for the UK. 2013-16 should be a fairly active few years for the sun, so chances of big +Ve SSTs (El Nino) are much higher. So warm and dry. Chances of major storms for us though in the summer time too.

dpb

Jetsteam over the top us means any low pressure is likely to produce sailable wind


Bowling us a nice sequence of lows across the country now

Leslie

Yes thanks, that is exactly how I saw it from all the met training I got when I started my job all those years ago. I have seen jetstreams described as controlling the weather when as you say, they are an indication of where the boundaries of cold and warm air are. As a thermal wind, ie caused by strong air temperature differences, the position of a jet stream will indicate where the boundary of the polar and tropical air lies and also give an indication of the position of cold and warm weather fronts as you say. I don't see how a jet stream can physically affect the weather in the troposphere apart from causing clear air turbulence, which it does manage very well.

Les

JackClark

Weather buffs, any views on Rasp?
http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/RASPtable.html

Seems deadly accurate for my sport of Paragliding, well in the summer anyhow.

richiewong

I blame the governement