So, is the recession over?
31 October 2009, 03:00 PM
#1
Scooby Regular
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 5,582
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
So, is the recession over?
USA has registered 3.5% growth in Q3, UK will probably have positive growth in Q4, banks are back to profitability. World equity indices have rallied.
We've had an increase in UK property prices, and anecdotally I can tell you that houses around my way are selling fast, as long as sensibly priced. London auction rooms are packed, and mainly cash rich buyers are doing the deal.
So does this mean that we've seen the worst of it?
We've had an increase in UK property prices, and anecdotally I can tell you that houses around my way are selling fast, as long as sensibly priced. London auction rooms are packed, and mainly cash rich buyers are doing the deal.
So does this mean that we've seen the worst of it?
Last edited by Deep Singh; 31 October 2009 at 03:08 PM.
31 October 2009, 03:56 PM
#3
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Surrey/London borders.
Posts: 8,300
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Just wait until Gordon's printing machine breaks down, and the value of the Ł in your pocket is worth as much a Zimbabwean $!
I think there's more to come once the faking for the election is over.
Years of higher taxes to pay for the mess GB and his predecessor have got this country into. Either that or we're looking at an amazing jobless recovery.
I think there's more to come once the faking for the election is over.
Years of higher taxes to pay for the mess GB and his predecessor have got this country into. Either that or we're looking at an amazing jobless recovery.
Last edited by fatherpierre; 31 October 2009 at 03:58 PM.
31 October 2009, 04:30 PM
#4
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Type 25. Build No.34
Posts: 8,222
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Just wait until Gordon's printing machine breaks down, and the value of the Ł in your pocket is worth as much a Zimbabwean $!
I think there's more to come once the faking for the election is over.
Years of higher taxes to pay for the mess GB and his predecessor have got this country into. Either that or we're looking at an amazing jobless recovery.
I think there's more to come once the faking for the election is over.
Years of higher taxes to pay for the mess GB and his predecessor have got this country into. Either that or we're looking at an amazing jobless recovery.
31 October 2009, 04:55 PM
#6
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Weston Super Mare, Somerset.
Posts: 14,102
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
USA has registered 3.5% growth in Q3, UK will probably have positive growth in Q4, banks are back to profitability. World equity indices have rallied.
We've had an increase in UK property prices, and anecdotally I can tell you that houses around my way are selling fast, as long as sensibly priced. London auction rooms are packed, and mainly cash rich buyers are doing the deal.
So does this mean that we've seen the worst of it?
We've had an increase in UK property prices, and anecdotally I can tell you that houses around my way are selling fast, as long as sensibly priced. London auction rooms are packed, and mainly cash rich buyers are doing the deal.
So does this mean that we've seen the worst of it?
NO.
The only people who ask that question are those who have a decent and fairly secure job.
3.5% - are you sure? I thought it was marginal.
Dow Jones lost 2.5% yesterday.
Horrendous unemployment in US.
UK finances worst in Europe.
We have huge debt.
We may have avoided a Depression which is about the best you can say.
dl
Trending Topics
31 October 2009, 07:04 PM
#8
Scooby Regular
NO.
The only people who ask that question are those who have a decent and fairly secure job.
3.5% - are you sure? I thought it was marginal.
Dow Jones lost 2.5% yesterday.
Horrendous unemployment in US.
UK finances worst in Europe.
We have huge debt.
We may have avoided a Depression which is about the best you can say.
dl
The only people who ask that question are those who have a decent and fairly secure job.
3.5% - are you sure? I thought it was marginal.
Dow Jones lost 2.5% yesterday.
Horrendous unemployment in US.
UK finances worst in Europe.
We have huge debt.
We may have avoided a Depression which is about the best you can say.
dl
I was going to mention that. Any optimism in America was totally reversed yesterday with end of week and end of month profit taking. Even that should never see a 2.5% drop in the Dow surely? That's huge!
31 October 2009, 08:08 PM
#9
Scooby Regular
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 5,582
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I thought I read 3.5%, but could be wrong. I'm not trying to be a wind up merchant like SSU, but playing devil's advocate.
1) The housing market seems to have turned the corner. The annual house price index has turned positive at 0.4%.
2) Repossesions never hit the sort of levels we had during the last recession, and maybe dropping.
3) Anecdotally, you may agree with me that houses in your local area are selling. The very desirable ones almost overnight.
So the housing market starts moving, people's confidence returns, they start consuming and hey presto, the economy starts to slowly grow again.
Then there is the question of money printing, well a lot of 'money' was destroyed correct? So we print some more to takes its place, its not as though it's extra money supply, it's to compensate for what was 'destroyed'
So it shouldn't really stoke inflation. Even if it did, to some extent that's not a completely bad thing, makes our debts relatively smaller
1) The housing market seems to have turned the corner. The annual house price index has turned positive at 0.4%.
2) Repossesions never hit the sort of levels we had during the last recession, and maybe dropping.
3) Anecdotally, you may agree with me that houses in your local area are selling. The very desirable ones almost overnight.
So the housing market starts moving, people's confidence returns, they start consuming and hey presto, the economy starts to slowly grow again.
Then there is the question of money printing, well a lot of 'money' was destroyed correct? So we print some more to takes its place, its not as though it's extra money supply, it's to compensate for what was 'destroyed'
So it shouldn't really stoke inflation. Even if it did, to some extent that's not a completely bad thing, makes our debts relatively smaller
31 October 2009, 08:39 PM
#10
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Surrey/London borders.
Posts: 8,300
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I thought I read 3.5%, but could be wrong. I'm not trying to be a wind up merchant like SSU, but playing devil's advocate.
1) The housing market seems to have turned the corner. The annual house price index has turned positive at 0.4%.
There is no FTB market and volumes are WAY down on 'normal'. The market is not functioning and is therefore liable to crash again. Prices can only get out of control again if lending gets lax.
2) Repossesions never hit the sort of levels we had during the last recession, and maybe dropping.
Government (IE you an me via our tax) paying the interest on people's mortgages to stop them being repossessed. The market is rigged and not being allowed to correct properly. It's all a fraud by GB that will have to end at some point. GB buying votes and we're paying for it.
3) Anecdotally, you may agree with me that houses in your local area are selling. The very desirable ones almost overnight.
So the housing market starts moving, people's confidence returns, they start consuming and hey presto, the economy starts to slowly grow again.
Bit simplistic.....
Then there is the question of money printing, well a lot of 'money' was destroyed correct? So we print some more to takes its place, its not as though it's extra money supply, it's to compensate for what was 'destroyed
What? No, not correct. The Ł has been devalued by this. You can't just pump made up money into an economy and all will be well. The Germans tried this to pay off their war debts and it caused massive, massive inflation.
Inflation in the Weimar Republic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
So it shouldn't really stoke inflation. Even if it did, to some extent that's not a completely bad thing, makes our debts relatively smaller
1) The housing market seems to have turned the corner. The annual house price index has turned positive at 0.4%.
There is no FTB market and volumes are WAY down on 'normal'. The market is not functioning and is therefore liable to crash again. Prices can only get out of control again if lending gets lax.
2) Repossesions never hit the sort of levels we had during the last recession, and maybe dropping.
Government (IE you an me via our tax) paying the interest on people's mortgages to stop them being repossessed. The market is rigged and not being allowed to correct properly. It's all a fraud by GB that will have to end at some point. GB buying votes and we're paying for it.
3) Anecdotally, you may agree with me that houses in your local area are selling. The very desirable ones almost overnight.
So the housing market starts moving, people's confidence returns, they start consuming and hey presto, the economy starts to slowly grow again.
Bit simplistic.....
Then there is the question of money printing, well a lot of 'money' was destroyed correct? So we print some more to takes its place, its not as though it's extra money supply, it's to compensate for what was 'destroyed
What? No, not correct. The Ł has been devalued by this. You can't just pump made up money into an economy and all will be well. The Germans tried this to pay off their war debts and it caused massive, massive inflation.
Inflation in the Weimar Republic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
So it shouldn't really stoke inflation. Even if it did, to some extent that's not a completely bad thing, makes our debts relatively smaller
As the pound weakens our foreign debts increase.
Last edited by fatherpierre; 31 October 2009 at 08:52 PM.
31 October 2009, 09:07 PM
#11
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Type 25. Build No.34
Posts: 8,222
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
31 October 2009, 09:12 PM
#12
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Surrey/London borders.
Posts: 8,300
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
You misunderstand.
I am pretty well off, have no debts, mortgage-free, have a good (secure) job and a wife who earns more than me. We live well
In fact, I'm at work now, getting paid double time to surf the net as there's no work to do
The recession hasn't touched my life. Quite happy, ta. I just think this country is in a very bad way financially, and most of it his hidden from the sheeple.
I am pretty well off, have no debts, mortgage-free, have a good (secure) job and a wife who earns more than me. We live well
In fact, I'm at work now, getting paid double time to surf the net as there's no work to do The recession hasn't touched my life. Quite happy, ta. I just think this country is in a very bad way financially, and most of it his hidden from the sheeple.
01 November 2009, 12:16 AM
#13
USA has registered 3.5% growth in Q3, UK will probably have positive growth in Q4, banks are back to profitability. World equity indices have rallied.
We've had an increase in UK property prices, and anecdotally I can tell you that houses around my way are selling fast, as long as sensibly priced. London auction rooms are packed, and mainly cash rich buyers are doing the deal.
So does this mean that we've seen the worst of it?
We've had an increase in UK property prices, and anecdotally I can tell you that houses around my way are selling fast, as long as sensibly priced. London auction rooms are packed, and mainly cash rich buyers are doing the deal.
So does this mean that we've seen the worst of it?
Banks owe billions to the government and the housing market is still at the bottom, it will be another year before we are home and dry
01 November 2009, 12:33 AM
#14
Scooby Regular
01 November 2009, 12:34 AM
#15
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (1)
Join Date: Jan 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 15,271
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
FP - do you really think that Government cash is holding up the market by paying mortgage interest? What is your evidence? I could be way wrong but this is not something I have come across.
The main difference on repossessions is that this time around, interest are ultra low and many people are on fixed price deals so they can manage their finances better.
There is probably also a little additional pressure from HM Gov to limit repossessions.
And lastly, over the past few years a lot of price pressure in the housing market, and those now suffering negative equity are buy to lets rather than private ownership.
The main difference on repossessions is that this time around, interest are ultra low and many people are on fixed price deals so they can manage their finances better.
There is probably also a little additional pressure from HM Gov to limit repossessions.
And lastly, over the past few years a lot of price pressure in the housing market, and those now suffering negative equity are buy to lets rather than private ownership.
01 November 2009, 12:36 AM
#16
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (1)
Join Date: Jan 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 15,271
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
As it is the 'Insurance' scheme the Gov set up for banks is not likely to be used now and the capital will come from the private sector.
There is trading strength in the market now - there is strong activity now and it is gaining momentum.
01 November 2009, 12:49 AM
#17
Scooby Regular
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 5,582
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
FP:
1) I agree with Trout, I don't think many people are actually helped by these govt schemes, it was just spin at the time to make GB look good.
2) De valuing your currency helps with debt, foreigners hold our debt as Ł, just as they buy US debt as $. So the less it is worth the better (or so I keep reading LOL)
Hodgy;
I'm not quite sure what I mean! During the crisis billions of Ł was lost/destroyed/written off, whatever you want to call it. There was money that was meant to be on balance sheets and then it wasn't. This could have triggered a deflationary spiral, so printing some new money to make up for that which was lost from the economy is not necessarily inflationary. It could just be bringing balance.
Or, I could be talking sh3t3!!
1) I agree with Trout, I don't think many people are actually helped by these govt schemes, it was just spin at the time to make GB look good.
2) De valuing your currency helps with debt, foreigners hold our debt as Ł, just as they buy US debt as $. So the less it is worth the better (or so I keep reading LOL)
Hodgy;
I'm not quite sure what I mean! During the crisis billions of Ł was lost/destroyed/written off, whatever you want to call it. There was money that was meant to be on balance sheets and then it wasn't. This could have triggered a deflationary spiral, so printing some new money to make up for that which was lost from the economy is not necessarily inflationary. It could just be bringing balance.
Or, I could be talking sh3t3!!
Last edited by Deep Singh; 01 November 2009 at 01:01 AM.
01 November 2009, 12:49 AM
#18
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Surrey/London borders.
Posts: 8,300
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Your tax and mine paying for people to keep their homes.
But yes, interest rates are the key here. We have a de-valued currency and almost 0% rates so all us savers with cash are the main losers.
Last edited by fatherpierre; 01 November 2009 at 01:00 AM.
01 November 2009, 01:04 AM
#19
Scooby Regular
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 5,582
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Mortgage rescue scheme extended across England - Corporate - Communities and Local Government
Your tax and mine paying for people to keep their homes.
But yes, interest rates are the key here. We have a de-valued currency and almost 0% rates so all us savers with cash are the main losers.
Your tax and mine paying for people to keep their homes.
But yes, interest rates are the key here. We have a de-valued currency and almost 0% rates so all us savers with cash are the main losers.
I'm not saying the scheme doesn't exist, I'd be curious to know how many house holders have been helped by it.
01 November 2009, 01:10 AM
#20
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Surrey/London borders.
Posts: 8,300
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The aim was 6000, apparently.
Banks were also 'told' to hold off longer on defaulters.
I await a housing market correction once we have a new government. Housing is so overvalued and the market is currently broken. There are so few FTBs now, and they are the drivers of it.
Banks were also 'told' to hold off longer on defaulters.
I await a housing market correction once we have a new government. Housing is so overvalued and the market is currently broken. There are so few FTBs now, and they are the drivers of it.
01 November 2009, 01:35 AM
#22
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (1)
Join Date: Jan 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 15,271
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
OK - so I missed that MASSIVE scheme to save the UK housing market.
Ł200m and 6,000 households is a PR exercise. Fantastic for the 6,000 families, but in the scheme of things both numbers are paltry.
As for FTBs, at least anecdotally there are new buyers emerging. But this may be local to where I live (near York).
Housing is very fragile - but there is low stock at present, and even if the market loosened up there is still massive long term pressure in the market as the number of households in the UK is rising far faster than supply over the next ten years.
Ł200m and 6,000 households is a PR exercise. Fantastic for the 6,000 families, but in the scheme of things both numbers are paltry.
As for FTBs, at least anecdotally there are new buyers emerging. But this may be local to where I live (near York).
Housing is very fragile - but there is low stock at present, and even if the market loosened up there is still massive long term pressure in the market as the number of households in the UK is rising far faster than supply over the next ten years.
01 November 2009, 01:39 AM
#23
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (1)
Join Date: Jan 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 15,271
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
On the money printing front - the Government has been using Quantitive Easing but not through printing money directly. They have been injecting capital into the banks to enable them to make more money available from the existing money supply.
So techically there is more money around although not through simply printing more.
In theory this eases capital flow and avoids catatrosphic devaluation.
Some devaluation is a good thing - a strong pound is good for us if we travel, but bad for exporters, particularly in a recession. A weaker pound is then good for us.
So techically there is more money around although not through simply printing more.
In theory this eases capital flow and avoids catatrosphic devaluation.
Some devaluation is a good thing - a strong pound is good for us if we travel, but bad for exporters, particularly in a recession. A weaker pound is then good for us.
01 November 2009, 01:42 AM
#24
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Surrey/London borders.
Posts: 8,300
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Even with the large population rise the UK has experienced, there are still almost 1 million houses sitting empty.
There are 1000s of new-build flats in many big cities sitting unsold. The supply argument is a myth.
There are 1000s of new-build flats in many big cities sitting unsold. The supply argument is a myth.
01 November 2009, 01:52 AM
#25
10 years ago there was at least a 2m house shortage which the government had to correct within 10 year
At best all the top house builders probably turn around 30,000 houses a year so its impossible to meet the demand and even more so in these troubled times.The housing market is picking up all over the country but its still hoovering around the bottom. All the top house builders will say its going to be selling better next year and the worst is over, which it is but it will be a slow climb out. I have been suffering on the housing side for near on 3 years now? The sooner it corrects itself the better for me
01 November 2009, 01:55 AM
#26
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Surrey/London borders.
Posts: 8,300
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
10 years ago there was at least a 2m house shortage which the government had to correct within 10 year At best all the top house builders probably turn around 30,000 houses a year so its impossible to meet the demand and even more so in these troubled times.
The housing market is picking up all over the country but its still hoovering around the bottom. All the top house builders will say its going to be selling better next year and the worst is over, which it is but it will be a slow climb out. I have been suffering on the housing side for near on 3 years now? The sooner it corrects itself the better for me
At best all the top house builders probably turn around 30,000 houses a year so its impossible to meet the demand and even more so in these troubled times.The housing market is picking up all over the country but its still hoovering around the bottom. All the top house builders will say its going to be selling better next year and the worst is over, which it is but it will be a slow climb out. I have been suffering on the housing side for near on 3 years now? The sooner it corrects itself the better for me
01 November 2009, 04:21 AM
#27
Scooby Regular
I don't think the supply/demand issue on its own is enough to cause prices to rise. If people feel housing is too expensive (either as a result of restrictive lending, high prices, low wages etc) they will just rent, or not try and move up the ladder.
01 November 2009, 07:37 AM
#28
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (1)
Join Date: Jan 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 15,271
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
...but to rent, someone needs to own the property.
FP - so there are 1 million properties lying empty - that is irrelevant if they are not coming to market.
There is now myth - there are clear facts that there are far more single person households than ever before, our population is rising (immigration) and there are fewer houses available than there are households.
Markets are simple things - when there is more demand than supply prices rise (unless artificially controlled).
At the moment this is true, however, the stock is tiny and demand only just greater so no-one knows whether this is the beginning of the end (V or L shape) or the end of the beginning (W shape).
For all our sakes let's hope it is not the latter.
FP - so there are 1 million properties lying empty - that is irrelevant if they are not coming to market.
There is now myth - there are clear facts that there are far more single person households than ever before, our population is rising (immigration) and there are fewer houses available than there are households.
Markets are simple things - when there is more demand than supply prices rise (unless artificially controlled).
At the moment this is true, however, the stock is tiny and demand only just greater so no-one knows whether this is the beginning of the end (V or L shape) or the end of the beginning (W shape).
For all our sakes let's hope it is not the latter.
01 November 2009, 09:45 AM
#29
Guest
Posts: n/a
...but to rent, someone needs to own the property.
FP - so there are 1 million properties lying empty - that is irrelevant if they are not coming to market.
There is now myth - there are clear facts that there are far more single person households than ever before, our population is rising (immigration) and there are fewer houses available than there are households.
Markets are simple things - when there is more demand than supply prices rise (unless artificially controlled).
At the moment this is true, however, the stock is tiny and demand only just greater so no-one knows whether this is the beginning of the end (V or L shape) or the end of the beginning (W shape).
For all our sakes let's hope it is not the latter.
FP - so there are 1 million properties lying empty - that is irrelevant if they are not coming to market.
There is now myth - there are clear facts that there are far more single person households than ever before, our population is rising (immigration) and there are fewer houses available than there are households.
Markets are simple things - when there is more demand than supply prices rise (unless artificially controlled).
At the moment this is true, however, the stock is tiny and demand only just greater so no-one knows whether this is the beginning of the end (V or L shape) or the end of the beginning (W shape).
For all our sakes let's hope it is not the latter.
Been back in sunny Cornwall for a year now and not seen much property actually sell (from an interested spectator viewpoint that is). Lots of properties have been on the market for that whole time.
As for the recession being over, the OP was pointing to the US. But from articles such as DailyFX - U.S. GDP Rises On Government Stimulus Ending Recession we see that "... The lack of growth outside of government programs continues to be a concern for market participants and raises the question of whether the recovery will be sustainable when the aide dissipates. However, the government has pledged to maintained stimulus efforts until there are signs of sustainable growth ..."
I guess that second sentence leaves out the rider "whether we can afford it or not ...."!!
And on the shape? Well the HSBC CEO at least thinks it's a 'W'. From HSBC chairman: Banking industry ?owes an apology?
"... In related news, Michael Geoghegan the group chief executive of HSBC, said he is holding fire on expansion plans for fear of a “W” rather than a “V” shaped recession. Geoghegan said he is braced for a second economic downturn, telling The Financial Times he is cautious about “growing too fast” before signs of a recovery can be confirmed ..."
Not convinced that Flash and Labour are following a *scorched earth* policy with the economy knowing that they won't have to pick up the pieces. I do believe that their old 'tax and spend and state intervention' policies are coming very much to the fore, which they think will be the economy's salvation, but will, in the end, have the same result as if they were following a scorched earth policy.
Dave
01 November 2009, 10:50 AM
#30
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 39,877
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
USA has registered 3.5% growth in Q3, UK will probably have positive growth in Q4, banks are back to profitability. World equity indices have rallied.
We've had an increase in UK property prices, and anecdotally I can tell you that houses around my way are selling fast, as long as sensibly priced. London auction rooms are packed, and mainly cash rich buyers are doing the deal.
So does this mean that we've seen the worst of it?
We've had an increase in UK property prices, and anecdotally I can tell you that houses around my way are selling fast, as long as sensibly priced. London auction rooms are packed, and mainly cash rich buyers are doing the deal.
So does this mean that we've seen the worst of it?
When all that has to stop-that is when you can start whingeing!
Les