Gear Head

iTrader: (2)

There seems to be so many conflicting stories out there at the moment, but I suppose the unemployment figures don't lie. Have we seen the worst of the ****storm, or is this just the beginning. (And, unlike the BBC, try and back your theories up with a few facts! )

Matteeboy

About level with this fair looking bird.

Still a long way to the bottom and the landing is a nasty one...

Gear Head

iTrader: (2)

picy not work!

Gear Head

iTrader: (2)

Do you think that the severity of this recession has been compounded by the media?
Media report good news, stocks rise.
Media report bad news.......**** storm continues.

Gear Head

iTrader: (2)

Explain.

BBC NEWS | Business | JPMorgan Chase profits soar 36%

TelBoy

Nobody knows. The end.

Until the herd starts moving in the same direction again, you can pick and choose which signs of recovery or of further deterioration you want to suit your story.

Timwinner

iTrader: (3)

I know this might be a stroke of luck or it might be a regional thing but around these parts things do seem to look a bit better, House prices are on the up, Lots of jobs knocking about, both skilled and un skilled and the crime rate has been steady.

I did'nt believe the hype in the first place, I know some people have really struggled and I appreciate that but 6 months ago people were talking about how by now we would all be living in a post apocalyptic hell, eating what we find with no work and only the super rich in houses.
As it turns out most people have managed to ride the storm so far.

Gear Head

iTrader: (2)

I have no story. It is just interesting that some of the key firms tipped as being responcible for the 'credit crunch', are now making record proifts. Surely, this means that they should start easing back the restrictions on lending? Obviously not to the levels we saw in 2005/2006 though.

tanyatriangles

iTrader: (2)

The unemployment figure has more than doubled year on year in Yorks and Humber, and STILL that stupid biatch Winterton says there are plenty of jobs out there.

She wants to look at the job pages in the local rags, and more to the point, the jobs at the local jobcentre. WHY the biatch is allowed to lie like that is beyond me. She wants a bullet!

Meanwhile the local steelworks is slated to lose a further 1000 jobs. Of course, NO-ONE saw THAT coming when they sold out to Tata steel

I reckon we've not seen the worst yet, certainly not outside the affluent SE.

Petem95

Hardly surprising the banks are back to profit after multi-billion $ bailouts to be honest....

Overall I would say things are not good - unemployment continues to rise, and the outlook isnt great, and you have to look at what are the drivers for growth?

We've had a boom fueled by a decade of easy-credit, and this has in turn fueled consumer spending and house prices etc. This has finished now and looks like it won't ever be repeated after the pop almost caused the global banking system to collapse.

IMO we won't really know how bad things are/aren't now, for another 12 months, but one thing is certain, things won't go back to the way they were because that just wasn't sustainable.

Governments can't keep promping up failing industries/banks etc, so i think currently we are not seeing the real situation.

hodgy0_2

read my posts on the subject and as I have repeatly said

making money (**** loads) is too important for the big financial institutions no too

thats why when they start talking about big big bonuses, £500 bottles of wine at lunch, I am not in the least bit surprised

Soon people with good credit ratings will start to be able to borrow v large sums at competative rates etc etc

and we will all be back here in 15 years time

TelBoy

Banks are making big profits again, that's indisputable. But it's not on the same toxic pack of cards that it was in 2007 and 2008. But i can totally see why it sits so awkwardly with the public. From the brink of collapse to record profits in less than a year. Ouch. Whether we'll be back here in 15 years is debatable - i actually doubt it, i think it will take a whole generational change to forget the lessons and for new loopholes to be exploited.

But big profits at the banks doesn't mean there's a recovery round the corner - that's just banks taking advantage of charging much more for credit. It's almost unavoidable. I'd like to think the overt signs of such activity, such as the over-priced bottles of wine, aren't actually quite so visible now, but you might have seen things i haven't noticed perhaps. But be under no illusion, the financial world HAS changed, it might just not seem like it yet.

SunnySideUp

Am I alone in thinking the whole thing was a con by the Banks?

The same as that last big con. - the Millenium Bug?! ... some people made ££££££££'s out of 'Future Proofing' IT Systems ... money for nothing.

That said, yes - it's all over bar the shouting - houses selling, cars selling, big ticket items selling, most people slightly concerned but largely unaffected.

hodgy0_2

totally wrong way of looking at it ssup

i,m sure the banks didnt want to con anyone, they were happy making money all along conning as they went, the're only crime was that they were to stupid to see it comming

(but maybe they new all along that they would be bailed out)

we've been conned by the government/system, who have used our money to prop up the banks -- whos only intention is get back to the good old days asap

(and they will sooner than everyone thinks)

Matteeboy

The banks DID con everyone. They employed the "cleverest" people they could find to package up ridiculous SIVs - a bunch of terrible investments that rode on the confidence of the property market yet were cr4p loans given to people that were conned into them by criminal mortgage companies. The banks knew what was going on. They are back in profit yet many should be in prison.

It's the super con of the millenium and they're going to get away with it.

Timwinner

iTrader: (3)

They wont get away with it, Karma will take care of them all I am sure of it.

Matteeboy

Does Karma have a pack of Rottweillers and a big baseball bat? I hope so.

zip106

Well, if my experience of the last month is anything to go by I'd say things are moving up around here.

I've got work orders upto Christmas and possibly beyond, and I'm having to turn some work down
I've tried at least 8 decorators I know to give me some help but all are too busy for several months. Also been trying to get a good tiler - impossible.

My decorators merchant has seen a trebling of sales in the last 2 months, the builders merchants were a hive of activity again, and there seems to be several house building sites beginning to be built on again.

Many roads around the vicinity have 'Sold' signs up in the gardens of homes that had been for sale for many months, one road has 6 Sold signs one after the other.

My neighbour sells used cars and has sold 4 Ferraris in less than 10 days, and has had his best 3 months for about 5 years.

Just my observations.

hodgy0_2

reply from Foxtons when asked the state of the market

"Market has gone slightly nuts in all honesty. Got some good properties under offer in the area, 2 on Clifford Gardens, flat on Bathurst and we have 10 Pember Road under offer at 400k which is one of the small modern 60’s build!"

take with a large dose of salt


maybe we are moving to the American style two tier economy, where 40% of the population are just an economic underclass serving the needs of the 60%

our view of America is taken from the TV -- but it has vast swathes of very poor people and an infant mortality rate that puts it pretty low down the ranking -- into the third world

(40% of Americans live in mobile homes)

dpb

Static mobile homes , but yes .

Id just like to know how much this flurry of activity mentioned has to do with the 75 billion

jonc

The banks are making money because they're adapted to current economic environment. Since the banks are at the forefront and a huge driver of the economy, they were the first to be affected by crisis and will be the first to recover from it too. The banks have change their business models and scaled down their trading in CDO's, derivatives, bonds, equities, etc and moved to a more of a consultancy/advisory role where businesses are going to these banks for advise on how to survive the current economic crisis.

Matteeboy

So Jon, you think the banks are being clever then? Do you think bankers are some kind of geniuses?

No they aren't. If they were so clever, they wouldn't have blown up the world economy in the first place. They have people in power - with a lot of clout who are able to get the government to bail them out. They are private when on the up, public sector when it trouble.

To be honest I have a lot more time for Estate Agents (and that's saying something) at the moment. If I meet an investment banker socially or with work, I won't be giving him the time of day. Total and utter contempt. They still manage to fool the masses into thinking they are clever though - as shown above.

TelBoy

Matt i usually sort of see where you're coming from on a lot of things. But your generalisation on this is, in my opinion, seriously naive. I'm an investment banker. I've never sold a collateralised product in my life. Do you still hold me in total and utter contempt, and if so, why?

Matteeboy

Tel - fair enough. Any banker that has dealt in collateralised products then although this recession has shown the true colours of many bankers. While not daft enough to think Tracey behind the counter at HSBC has anything to do with it, I am still deeply unimpressed with the ethics and morals of all modern banks.

TelBoy

The problem, such as it is, with banks, is that they trade in only one commodity - money. And to many people that's just vulgar. But somebody has to do it, pardon the cliché. But it makes it very easy for people to target our "ethics", when in reality everybody with a trade is trying to maximise their return, we just don't have a tangible product to show for it. Maybe that's just me kidding myself though, who knows.

hodgy0_2

banks do what they do -- make money out of money, anyone who thinks any different is living in cloud cuckoo land

every single financial product invented's primary purpose is to make the person selling it money -- any other outcome is a total inconsequence

and an analysis of the problem that just lays the blame on banks is a flawed one

we live in a world were the accepted culture is one of "privatising profits and nationalising losses"

banks just take that culture to the nth degree

dpb

Surely Money is just a means to buy something in this country anyway , its the notion of equity thats been totally abused by all and sundry *ankers.
I reckon nearly everybody in a trade is more than happy as long as their trade doesnt stop tomorrow

TelBoy

Of course banks make money out of money, that's the only tool they have at their disposal. The bit about every other outcome being totally inconsequential i think we can dismiss if we're being honest with ourselves, right? Sounds good perhaps, but is utter nonsense to anybody actually in the industry. Likewise the privatising profits, nationalising losses bit. You must have the soundbyte handbook! It isn't like that, wasn't like that, and i'll bet anything you like won't be like that in our lifetimes. What we went through was a once in a generation event. Let's check back in 40 years and see if i was right.

EddScott

Issued the following to a couple of people recently.



A major global inventory cycle is behind the recent improvement in economic data. As demand collapsed last year, firms were initially slow to react and stocks of unsold goods increased. Companies then responded by cutting production in excess of the fall in demand. This has led to aggressive inventory liquidation in the first quarter of this year. With inventories now becoming better aligned with the level of sales, firms have started to resume production. Global trade has stabilised and business surveys have begun to improve. As the inventory cycle turns, this should mean fewer jobs need to be shed.

The American housing market is critical for a sustained global economic recovery. American housing problems were at the epicentre of the credit crisis, taking is into the current economic downturn and they will be a contributor to pulling us out. The American housing market is beginning to show signs of improvement, as the months of supply of unsold games data has started to fall and we expect American house prices to start to stabilise, losses can be quantified and investors and the financial sector can start to take a view on the future.

Credit conditions are also incredibly important. If consumers and companies can not borrow, the economic recovery will be hindered. The US Senior Loans Officers Survey gives a good indication of how tight credit conditions are and this survey has started to reflect an easing of credit conditions in the past couple of months.

As mentioned above over the last two years, expectations have been downgraded significantly. However in the past few months as economic indicators have started to suggest signs of economic recovery, economic and profit expectations have gradually started to be revised upwards, which has supported equity prices. For equity prices to continue on an upwards trajectory, economic growth needs to pick up and stabilise for profits to start to meaningfully recover.

This is where the risk for equities now lies, as when it does occur, the eventual economic recovery will be gradual and economic growth will remain below trend to at least 2010, which will be a drag on future profits growth. The risk is that after a long period of downgrades to expectations, market participants may upgrade their expectations for growth too quickly and therefore face another round of disappointment as demand remains weak for a prolonged period of time.

As the market continually re-prices the risks surrounding the strength of the core recovery, equity markets will continue to be volatile leading to some weakness later on this year. Changing assumptions for the equity risk premium, profits growth and long term potential growth gives a different conclusion as to where equity markets should be trading. More evidence is needed that the economic green shoots discussed above are improving enough to drive a sustainable recovery in the economic growth and ultimately equity markets.


Pretty much sums up the currently state of play.

Timwinner

iTrader: (3)

Tel even if you are right (and I know nothing of finance so I stay right out of it) the fact we saw tax payers bailing out millionaires who screwed up banks. The fact we saw people buying breitlings with the spare change in there pockets will always make people angry about what happened.

I think its down to greed, its just not a nice quality, no one would say making a bit of cash is bad but that is different to greed.
Of course I talk in BBC as I dont know the real facts, and I except that. I except when I was a Police officer back in the day the BBC would say we just do certain things, the reality was a millions miles away.

It come down to this for most people.
Each tax payer has lent the equivalent of £3k to prop up banks.
Senior management or above in most financial sectors is well over £80k a year
Everyone feels broke
Go to the city and they are still paying £30 a drink and £1k a hooker on a tuesday night

People in finance, a lot of them through no fault of there own, have lost just about all public respect and its a long long way back from where you find yourself right now.

A large part of me feels sorry for the innocents amongst you and I would suggest just keep on doing what your doing and in 5 or 10 years this will be forgotten.
In the meantime people in finance and banking are visions of everything thats evil and that is a cross you have to bare.