Weather forecasting.....the Metoffice?
06 March 2009, 07:50 PM
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Weather forecasting.....the Metoffice?
They got it wrong for this area last weekend, while Google were spot on.
Not the first time either.
Why do we continue to support these utter jokes?
Not the first time either.
Why do we continue to support these utter jokes?
07 March 2009, 08:11 AM
#3
I have all but given up with that useless "shower". On most occasions I really think they just open the window, look out and amend their forecast
I have done screenshots of their so called 'forecasts' before and you would be amazed at how often they amend the outlook in a single day !!
I have done screenshots of their so called 'forecasts' before and you would be amazed at how often they amend the outlook in a single day !!
07 March 2009, 08:30 AM
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We've said for a long time that they ought to be on 'performance related pay'
They might get it right a little more often!
They might get it right a little more often!
07 March 2009, 10:10 AM
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No, seriously, I know what folk mean about them amending forecasts..........I e-mailed them and complained about just that.
I got a reply saying it was OK for them to do that, they had to be pro-active
Last edited by tanyatriangles; 07 March 2009 at 10:23 AM.
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07 March 2009, 10:32 AM
#8
According to Foreca (vista weather gadget) Its supposed to have rained every day this week.
Ball *****, With exception to Tuesday. slight shower late afternoon and overnight.
Its currently says its supposed to be cloudy, yet out my window is clear sky and sunshine. It also says the rest of this week and next week is going to p**s it down.
I wouldn't mind normally, but I'm working n my old' man's Jag, which after being concours prepped isn't meant to see any wet roads (espacially if they are still salty). Not so easy if the forcasts are up the spout.
Ball *****, With exception to Tuesday. slight shower late afternoon and overnight.
Its currently says its supposed to be cloudy, yet out my window is clear sky and sunshine. It also says the rest of this week and next week is going to p**s it down.
I wouldn't mind normally, but I'm working n my old' man's Jag, which after being concours prepped isn't meant to see any wet roads (espacially if they are still salty). Not so easy if the forcasts are up the spout.
07 March 2009, 03:21 PM
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Met Office staff are on performance related pay. Annual bonus is linked to how well they perform on forecasts (amongst other indicators - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...ion/index.html).
People remember when a forecast is wrong but rarely when it is right (true with a lot of things actually). In a recent study, people who saw forecasts to be wrong, in many cases actually interpreted the information incorrectly. And then there are people who expect a forecast for a whole region, e.g. South-West England, that covers 12 hours, and consists of 30 words to be totally accurate no matter where they are in that region.
People expect everything for nothing. The Met Office as a trading fund has to return a profit. They do a fantastic job in their PWS role (protecting life and limb of the UK public in weather related issues), which is as far as their responsibility to the public extends IIRC. You wouldn't expect Ordnance Survey to give you highly accurate maps for free would you? They are also a trading fund.
Anyone who has seen a "proper" forecast will tell you it extends to several pages, and that covers a short period, say 12 hours and for a single location. E.g. a "Local area forecast" for an RAF airfield. These are massively accurate because good information and skill has gone into producing it for a realistic temporal and spatial domain. Trying to do that for an area the size of the SW England, for 12 hours and 30 words is not at all easy (and IMHO, pointless).
Seriously, the Met Office do do a great job for their actual customers, be they private businesses that pay for forecasts, or to public bodies, e.g. Highways Agency, Environment Agency, MoD etc.
I would suggest to anyone who *needs* accurate weather forecasts for a particular event etc. actually pays for one and see the difference in what you get.
I think the OP's comment of "utter jokes" is uncalled for. Some of the smartest meteorologists on the planet work for the Met Office doing some fantastic work, and as civil servants, don't get paid very well for doing so.
Suggest anyone who really has a beef with the Met Office actually takes the time to visit and see what they actually do, and for who, and how well they do it. Forecasts on the website are just a tiny part of it all.
People remember when a forecast is wrong but rarely when it is right (true with a lot of things actually). In a recent study, people who saw forecasts to be wrong, in many cases actually interpreted the information incorrectly. And then there are people who expect a forecast for a whole region, e.g. South-West England, that covers 12 hours, and consists of 30 words to be totally accurate no matter where they are in that region.
People expect everything for nothing. The Met Office as a trading fund has to return a profit. They do a fantastic job in their PWS role (protecting life and limb of the UK public in weather related issues), which is as far as their responsibility to the public extends IIRC. You wouldn't expect Ordnance Survey to give you highly accurate maps for free would you? They are also a trading fund.
Anyone who has seen a "proper" forecast will tell you it extends to several pages, and that covers a short period, say 12 hours and for a single location. E.g. a "Local area forecast" for an RAF airfield. These are massively accurate because good information and skill has gone into producing it for a realistic temporal and spatial domain. Trying to do that for an area the size of the SW England, for 12 hours and 30 words is not at all easy (and IMHO, pointless).
Seriously, the Met Office do do a great job for their actual customers, be they private businesses that pay for forecasts, or to public bodies, e.g. Highways Agency, Environment Agency, MoD etc.
I would suggest to anyone who *needs* accurate weather forecasts for a particular event etc. actually pays for one and see the difference in what you get.
I think the OP's comment of "utter jokes" is uncalled for. Some of the smartest meteorologists on the planet work for the Met Office doing some fantastic work, and as civil servants, don't get paid very well for doing so.
Suggest anyone who really has a beef with the Met Office actually takes the time to visit and see what they actually do, and for who, and how well they do it. Forecasts on the website are just a tiny part of it all.
Last edited by IWatkins; 07 March 2009 at 03:50 PM.
07 March 2009, 04:09 PM
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OK, I could go with that IF the metoffice site didn't offer forecasts for a particualr TOWN, let alone region.
As stated before, it's a joke: they RARELY get it right, except for London and the SE, and alter forecasts as the weather changes.........NOT GOOD ENOUGH!
And I don't really care WHO pays 'em, they ought to do a better job. If they can't be accurate in so few words etc, then give it up and let Google have a go: theirs seems FAR better.
All thess people like the BBC, ITV, etc paying the metoffice for rubbish
As stated before, it's a joke: they RARELY get it right, except for London and the SE, and alter forecasts as the weather changes.........NOT GOOD ENOUGH!
And I don't really care WHO pays 'em, they ought to do a better job. If they can't be accurate in so few words etc, then give it up and let Google have a go: theirs seems FAR better.
All thess people like the BBC, ITV, etc paying the metoffice for rubbish
08 March 2009, 10:22 AM
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"RARELY get it right". Define rarely. Is that less than 10% of the time, 20%, 30%?
OK, let me see your data for a reasonable time period, say two years. Let me see what the forecast was on the website for your location for day and night time periods, then let me see your data for actual observations for that location, supplied by a trained meteorological observer. Then we will be able to see exactly how often they get it right/wrong and how that tallies with your statement of RARELY (once you have defined that).
Doubt you will be able to do that, so how about another option? Go somewhere else for your forecasts, e.g. Google, as "they SEEM" to be far better. If your perception is that the Google forecasts are better, then use them. You have a choice.
As for the BBC, ITV etc. paying the Met Office for rubbish. How do you know it is rubbish? Do you even know what the BBC actually pay for? Have you seen all the products they receive? Do you really think, if the BBC (or anyone else) thought it was rubbish, they would continue to buy it when there are plenty of other sources they could use?
Both postings you have made have been full of ignorance. May I suggest you avail yourself of the facts with regards to the process of weather forecasting, probabilities and find out how the town forecasts are actually produced. You may then get a better understanding of it all.
OK, let me see your data for a reasonable time period, say two years. Let me see what the forecast was on the website for your location for day and night time periods, then let me see your data for actual observations for that location, supplied by a trained meteorological observer. Then we will be able to see exactly how often they get it right/wrong and how that tallies with your statement of RARELY (once you have defined that).
Doubt you will be able to do that, so how about another option? Go somewhere else for your forecasts, e.g. Google, as "they SEEM" to be far better. If your perception is that the Google forecasts are better, then use them. You have a choice.
As for the BBC, ITV etc. paying the Met Office for rubbish. How do you know it is rubbish? Do you even know what the BBC actually pay for? Have you seen all the products they receive? Do you really think, if the BBC (or anyone else) thought it was rubbish, they would continue to buy it when there are plenty of other sources they could use?
Both postings you have made have been full of ignorance. May I suggest you avail yourself of the facts with regards to the process of weather forecasting, probabilities and find out how the town forecasts are actually produced. You may then get a better understanding of it all.
08 March 2009, 11:45 AM
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"RARELY get it right". Define rarely. Is that less than 10% of the time, 20%, 30%?
OK, let me see your data for a reasonable time period, say two years. Let me see what the forecast was on the website for your location for day and night time periods, then let me see your data for actual observations for that location, supplied by a trained meteorological observer. Then we will be able to see exactly how often they get it right/wrong and how that tallies with your statement of RARELY (once you have defined that).
Doubt you will be able to do that, so how about another option? Go somewhere else for your forecasts, e.g. Google, as "they SEEM" to be far better. If your perception is that the Google forecasts are better, then use them. You have a choice.
As for the BBC, ITV etc. paying the Met Office for rubbish. How do you know it is rubbish? Do you even know what the BBC actually pay for? Have you seen all the products they receive? Do you really think, if the BBC (or anyone else) thought it was rubbish, they would continue to buy it when there are plenty of other sources they could use?
Both postings you have made have been full of ignorance. May I suggest you avail yourself of the facts with regards to the process of weather forecasting, probabilities and find out how the town forecasts are actually produced. You may then get a better understanding of it all.
OK, let me see your data for a reasonable time period, say two years. Let me see what the forecast was on the website for your location for day and night time periods, then let me see your data for actual observations for that location, supplied by a trained meteorological observer. Then we will be able to see exactly how often they get it right/wrong and how that tallies with your statement of RARELY (once you have defined that).
Doubt you will be able to do that, so how about another option? Go somewhere else for your forecasts, e.g. Google, as "they SEEM" to be far better. If your perception is that the Google forecasts are better, then use them. You have a choice.
As for the BBC, ITV etc. paying the Met Office for rubbish. How do you know it is rubbish? Do you even know what the BBC actually pay for? Have you seen all the products they receive? Do you really think, if the BBC (or anyone else) thought it was rubbish, they would continue to buy it when there are plenty of other sources they could use?
Both postings you have made have been full of ignorance. May I suggest you avail yourself of the facts with regards to the process of weather forecasting, probabilities and find out how the town forecasts are actually produced. You may then get a better understanding of it all.
I'm basing my statements on where I live, what the BBC/metoffice SAYS will happen, and what ACTUALY does happen. I mean in real life
Ove the last few years. In my memory.No I don't keep detailed records of what does, and doesn't happen, but nor do I accept money for them
I would suggest that you go back to the metoffice and tell them that they do a brilliant job for those who are important:rolleyes;
But for those of us who don't pay, (other than through out taxes, license fees etc), they should put up, or shut up.......stop giving out forecasts for a particular town if it can't be accurate, stop peddling forecasts to the TV companies if they can't be accurate, stop giving out a whole country forecast if it can't be accurate.
Get my drift?
Ignorant, I may be, Stupid? No chance
08 March 2009, 04:10 PM
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Well the BBC is currently saying "Heavy Snow Shower" for where i live, between 15:00hrs and 18:00hrs - so we will see how accurate they are. It was supposed to have been sleeting from the previous three hours, but for some reason i have missed it
mb
mb
08 March 2009, 04:54 PM
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I use metcheck.com , they're usually very accurate over a few days and generally ok over longer periods.
Wish i'd listened to their forecast today as I got drenched cycling.
Wish i'd listened to their forecast today as I got drenched cycling.
08 March 2009, 05:20 PM
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Well, over an hour into the BBC's "in association with the Met Office" latest 3hr weather slot and guess what - the sun is shining and there is lots of blue sky. Not the slightest sign of snow, and certainly not any "heavy".
Thus, ground-based observations so far indicate the the Met Office's weather forecast is incorrect!
mb
Thus, ground-based observations so far indicate the the Met Office's weather forecast is incorrect!
mb
08 March 2009, 05:46 PM
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I think that weather forecasting is notoriously difficult to predict and also the websites people have mentioned are trying to narrow down "an area". The descriptions sometimes make it seem wrong where you happen to be but raincloud bursts can be incredibly local.
The best way to know what the weather is going to do is look at the forecasts ( a few different ones) assume if there's a slight poss of rain mentioned it could happen and keep looking up at the sky. Experience should tell you when those clouds are coming, if it looks like rain
I have access to a paid weather report and it gives a much more detailed view and indeed the level of confidence on the prediction.
At least our weather is never boring and the same day in, day out
The best way to know what the weather is going to do is look at the forecasts ( a few different ones) assume if there's a slight poss of rain mentioned it could happen and keep looking up at the sky. Experience should tell you when those clouds are coming, if it looks like rain
I have access to a paid weather report and it gives a much more detailed view and indeed the level of confidence on the prediction.
At least our weather is never boring and the same day in, day out
08 March 2009, 05:49 PM
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In my experience I'll just about believe a 12 hour forecast ....... but in that case I just look out the window anyway ...
Dave
08 March 2009, 06:13 PM
#22
I can forcast myself in inland spain (Valencia region);
Wind from the coast = nice
Wind from inland (north) = trouble ahead
Clouds mixing/swirling right above = bad s**t, take cover!
Seriously, it works
Doesn't work in the UK though (well not where I live anyway)
Wind from the coast = nice
Wind from inland (north) = trouble ahead
Clouds mixing/swirling right above = bad s**t, take cover!
Seriously, it works
Doesn't work in the UK though (well not where I live anyway)
08 March 2009, 06:26 PM
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Over two hours into the "Heavy Snow Shower" slot and still bright sunshine, blue sky and no sign whatsoever of and kind of precipitation.
Maybe if the BBC/Met Office actually looked out of the window, then they could start to understand what the weather is doing (rather than fantasizing about "climate change"). Heck, they could even stay indoors and click on Meteox to see that the chance of snow is probably below that of Nu-Labour winning the next election
mb
Maybe if the BBC/Met Office actually looked out of the window, then they could start to understand what the weather is doing (rather than fantasizing about "climate change"). Heck, they could even stay indoors and click on Meteox to see that the chance of snow is probably below that of Nu-Labour winning the next election
mb
08 March 2009, 08:05 PM
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Wow - i am amazed - it has just dropped eight inches of snow!
Just kidding of course - there is and has been, not the slightest hint of snow, sleet, hail, rain, drizzle, fog or ANY kind of precipitation whatsoever! So the BBC/Met's forecast has been totally incorrect - and will almost certainly continue to be so. The sky is completely clear, with stars twin-eckling above (to quote Mike Harding), so i expect that there will be a frost tonight - which ever-so slightly contradicts the forecasted plus-4-degrees celsi-grade that those with the million pound computers predict!
If the "Met" can't predict even immediate weather, then why do we have to listen to their scare-mongering about "global warming", "climate change" and the like ?
mb
Just kidding of course - there is and has been, not the slightest hint of snow, sleet, hail, rain, drizzle, fog or ANY kind of precipitation whatsoever! So the BBC/Met's forecast has been totally incorrect - and will almost certainly continue to be so. The sky is completely clear, with stars twin-eckling above (to quote Mike Harding), so i expect that there will be a frost tonight - which ever-so slightly contradicts the forecasted plus-4-degrees celsi-grade that those with the million pound computers predict!
If the "Met" can't predict even immediate weather, then why do we have to listen to their scare-mongering about "global warming", "climate change" and the like
?mb
08 March 2009, 08:14 PM
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Boomer, I'm awaiting your next report more eagerly that the next weather report!
In fact the one time I put complete faith in a weather forecast was for Southend airshow. I went in short sleeves, had to buy a thermal top from an army surplus stall!
(To be fair our local guy, small Paul, isn't too bad. But round here, North Yorks you've no chance, go 2 miles and you'll be in utterly different weather!)
In fact the one time I put complete faith in a weather forecast was for Southend airshow. I went in short sleeves, had to buy a thermal top from an army surplus stall!
(To be fair our local guy, small Paul, isn't too bad. But round here, North Yorks you've no chance, go 2 miles and you'll be in utterly different weather!)
08 March 2009, 09:06 PM
#26
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Are you sure you live in the UK? Here are the sat images from the last six hours SAT24.com, Satellite Weather Europe. Watch the Clouds and Sun over Europe
08 March 2009, 10:07 PM
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Are you sure you live in the UK? Here are the sat images from the last six hours SAT24.com, Satellite Weather Europe. Watch the Clouds and Sun over Europe
Sat24 is a bit distant, but Meteox give a better view of England-cestershire. Very little cloud, and disappearing quite rapidly!
But more importantly - NO heavy snow!!!
mb
08 March 2009, 11:30 PM
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No need to panic. Everything will be perfect soon ....
Supercomputer to boost forecasting at Met Office - 05 Mar 2009 - Computing
" ... The Met Office is preparing to migrate the supercomputer that underpins its ability to model global weather systems, with a new IBM Power6-based system set to come online this autumn.
The £33m IBM supercomputer will replace a five-year-old NEC SX-8 and will radically improve the Met Office’s ability to create complex climate models. The new IBM system is capable of undertaking 125 trillion calculations per second.
“The process of understanding the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, relating observations with masses of data, is very IT intensive,” said Dave Underwood, deputy director of technology and information services at the Met Office.
Computer models are essential to the organisation’s ability to predict the weather. The Met Office uses multiple climate models to build forecast predictions, each one based on an abundance of observational data that will be processed by the IBM computer ... "
Dave
Supercomputer to boost forecasting at Met Office - 05 Mar 2009 - Computing
" ... The Met Office is preparing to migrate the supercomputer that underpins its ability to model global weather systems, with a new IBM Power6-based system set to come online this autumn.
The £33m IBM supercomputer will replace a five-year-old NEC SX-8 and will radically improve the Met Office’s ability to create complex climate models. The new IBM system is capable of undertaking 125 trillion calculations per second.
“The process of understanding the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, relating observations with masses of data, is very IT intensive,” said Dave Underwood, deputy director of technology and information services at the Met Office.
Computer models are essential to the organisation’s ability to predict the weather. The Met Office uses multiple climate models to build forecast predictions, each one based on an abundance of observational data that will be processed by the IBM computer ... "
Dave