scoobynutta555

House prices are up in Jan this year by nearly 2% according to the BBC website.

What do the Scoobynet doom mongers about house prices say?

Timwinner

iTrader: (3)

Great news for us home owners, Bad new for the merchants of bleak.

TopBanana

House price crash officially over!

borat52

So we're talking 25% a year increase if this continues. Guess the recession won't be a problem. We can all just become unemployed and withdraw equity from our increasingly valuable homes every year to pay for our existance.

Time to re-write the economics books for the new world order.

Ohh wait, prices are down 17% on year on year, and the market is illiquid.

Maybe we are up the creek after all and they'll be worth another 17% less this time next year.

The solution is easy, print money, creat inflation, devalue the pound and in doing so make existing debts worthless so we can start again by paying our debts off with printed money then re-instating some proper restraint on lending (ie max mortgage = 3 times earnings and the bank manager is criminally liable for failing to properly check income).

FlightMan

Of course it's over. HPI has well and truly taken off again. 25% wahoo!! It's great isn't it, in a few short years, the average house will be worth over £5,000,000.

I mean what can possible go wrong?

cookstar

iTrader: (6)

I'm going to take a punt on one.

hodgy0_2

funny

we've had our house on the market since sept, initial buzz re viewings etc but then diddly

except in the last week, 2 viewings -- but they will come to nothing coz I am one of those "blinkered" types who wont drop my price

mainly coz I don't really have to sell

and I think that I am not alone in that -- but it all really depends on how unemployment effect repo's etc

borat52

Thats a very fair comment, if you don't need to sell then I don't think house prices falling is a major consideration. In past price falls the bargain properties have been the ones that were repo's and then sold on or marketed by desparate sellers in financial trouble. Those who don't need to sell can ride out the dips ect. Problem is if you see your house as an investment (which many have done in recent years) then its probably going to take one hell of a long time to see any return on it (ie better off with cash in the bank even at 1% or less).

At the end of the day it is indeed a market, buyers and sellers coming together. If you hold otu for your price and find a buyer good for you. The market is not liquid at present which means its just as hard to find a seller willing to accept a low offer as it is a buyer able to get a mortgage to meet asking price. Something has to give, either banks will start lending again or prices will fall to attract in buyers.

mamoon2

Link please, I think this is nonsense. Not suggesting the BBC would bend the truth to make things seem better. That would suggest they are influenced by the government.

scoobynutta555

Nonsense indeed.

BBC NEWS | Business | House prices 'up 1.9% in January'

Sti_Prodrive

we got a looooong way yet! no point in geting all happy

jasey

They need to update their graph

Mitchy260

I think this is just noise, 1 rogue month. I still suspect that they will fall by another 10% or so before bottoming out, stagnating and then rising again.

Nationwide only last week claimed a 1.5% fall so 1 lender says 1 thing, another lender says another so i wouldn't be reading too much into it until we have seen 3-4mths worth of increases from all lenders.

Julio Jordio

Agreed with the above, this is just a rogue month, a blip in the figures.

I'm an Agent in Lancashire, and prices are still falling hard here.

A 3 bed semi in a good location which would have fetched £190k in Jan has just sold at £124k.

Jamescsti

I presume you mean Jan 08 in that post or has the house lost 66k in less than a month?

GC8WRX

Bollocks house prices are up, i have been keeping an eye on a property to rent out, and its come down from 106k this time last year, to 76.5k now, and its still not sold!

SiPie

House near to us sold within 1 week, av small 2 bed flat, needing complete modernising

Was in at offers over £110,000 (Scottish system)

Sold for £146,000

Right area etc will still sell

Henrik

iTrader: (5)

That is the updated graph

Olly

Agreed, next door to me just sold. Good house, good location, good condition, not silly money. Sold in a week.

Chris L

One of the best guides (and historically pretty accurate) is the house price-to-income ratio. The US ratio is nearly back to the highs of the 70s (but only after much higher property price falls than we've seen so far) - it is now about 10 to 20% above the long term norms. If you look at the UK price/earnings ratio we're still way out. In fact the correction has only just begun.

There's a lot of good stats about this in Money Week - well worth a read - using their stats they reckon we could see another 40% off the Nationwide House Price Index. Take the last big downturn (the early 90s - which didn't have a full blown banking crisis) as a guide we could see prices falling for another 5 years.

I think you have to take one months figures with a pinch of salt and a dose of reality given the mess we're in.

cookstar

iTrader: (6)

How much influence do you think the press have on the general public with this kind of thing, if they continually talked the market up now, would/could it have a positive effect.

There are obviously people waiting for what they think is the bottom of the market to buy. Also there are mortgages out there for buyers that have a decent deposit.

FlightMan

What is the +ve effect? Rising house prices? All this means is that people have to spend more of their income on a home. How is that +ve?

cookstar

iTrader: (6)

Surely just people borrowing again (within their means) would be a good thing.

FlightMan

Yes, but when the average house is within the means of the average wage, then that'll b great.

If it's 5x wages and you need to lie to get a mortgage, that's not so good.

Deep Singh

Please see graphs of previous house price corrections. It is not a straight line downwards. Indeed during the last one there were at least 3 seperate months of positive growth which were then succeeded by further falls.

It has many names 'dead cat bounce', 'bear market rally'

The trend is in one direction only and that is DOWN DOWN DOWN.

Estate agents are already all over the news talking things up that people have now realised we are the bottom and that if they don't jump in they will miss the boat.

As I have said before (imho ) that for those looking to invest, you must not be fooled by the many false dawns we will see, otherwise you will see your wealth wiped out. Hold your nerve and wait

lozgti

Whats the best headline grabbing 'news' at this sort of time?....precisely.

Its all down to what is mentioned above.House Price/earnings ratios.

If lenders aren't going to go back to sloppy and over generous lending (which there is no way on earth they would) then we aren't going to see prices going crackers upwards.

Mind you,I don't miss the dustbinman turned property magnate people.In fact I hope that scenario never ever happens again

Julio Jordio

Sorry, that was a rushed post as I was leaving for Lunch.

Yes thats a year on year fall. We sold it to the current Vendors who have just sold at that loss.

A 4 Bed 3 Rec Semi-Beach front property which a year ago would have commanded upwards of £300k just sold for £130k (admittedly needing work) and that was a repo!

Average rule of thumb for FTB type houses, Eg Small 3 Bed Semi, Good Loc, Good condition, were easily fetching £130-135k are now Sub £100k. I sold one last week for £91k, and a shed the week before at £72k!!!!!!

Petem95

lol! Look at the stats from the last house price crash in the early 90's - prices fell for something like 3 years straight overall, but there was never more than 6 months of monthly falls without an increase.

The house price crash is still near the beginning as we're only now starting to see mass redundancies which will result in forced sales, and sharper price falls.

Why is it good news?! Prices are hugely inflated, and returning to the 'norm' (ie worth about 3.5 x average salary, down from over 6 x currently) can only be a good thing!