David Lock

Heard on the news that the Russian Prime Minister has announced that they have completed their job in Georgia and they are pulling out.

Great news if you're Georgian but it rather surprised me as I thought Russia were hell bent on ousting the Georgian Govt.

I guess the worst bit will be when a bunch of Eurocrats and G Bush will be gushing BS that their diplomacy worked so well. In fact I don't think Russia gives more than a passing thought to what the West thinks especially as they have the key to a big gas turn-off switch.

Just flexing their muscles I suppose. dl

Luan Pra bang

They now have complete control of two very large areas of georgia which have effectively been lost now. The roads and sea routes from georgia to the rest of the world are now in Russian control. Georgia is now pretty much under Russian control and other than terrorist and Guerilla action atttacking gas lines and stations inside russia there is nothing they can do about it.

Holy Ghost

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an understatement i think. putin and medvedev want to restore the power of the former USSR to form a new, Greater Russia in the long term: strong in energy, potent at arms and unified in geopolitics. they don't like the idea of a nascent superpower like china to the east and they want to redress the balance with the US to the west (with Europe once again the meat in the sandwich). this is one small step down that road, the ultimate effects of which are unclear. come back in 2020.

to quote the tea shop ladies from 'armstrong & miller' - "it's all kicking off, pru!"

PeteBrant

I don;t beleive Russia will ever regain the influence over world politics they had in the cold war (As it turns out, most of that was built on supposition rather than actual "Might" the US was overwhelmingly more powerful as early as 1960).

The UK Defence budget alone is bigger than that of Russia. It is utterly dwarfed by the US.

Of course Russia does have its energy reserves, which does make it an important world power. But only to a point.

Of course by 2020 there is a possiblity you will have 3 super powers; The US, China, and a Unified Europe (at least in Miltary and economic terms) in which case, there is every chance Europe will be the dominant force.

Holy Ghost

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i think you're way, way off the mark here pete so i can't resist giving you a gentle fisking based on some stark realities.

as to a "unified europe" being one of 3 global military superpowers in a decade or so? won't and cannot happen without:

* the total dissolution of NATO as well as full EU political integration.

* a pooling of national military capabilities under the primacy of a 'USE' government and foreign policy.

this is big, fundamental stuff. where's the mandate? without aircraft, armour, troops PLUS carrier battle groups and both a tactical and strategic (SLBM) nuclear arsenal for global 'force projection' under a single, integrated command structure, the EU can never become a military superpower.

you know what? the russians will not at all take kindly to a 'tooled-up' USE on its western borders. just look at the rumbling problem with the proposed US/czech missile defence shield as a simple example of the political temperatures already being generated. experience also says they will not let it happen.

i'll first direct you to this typically salty and excellent piece of analysis by simon heffer in today's telegraph:

The West must start to hit Russia where it hurts - in the roubles - Telegraph

what you've missed is that the time's they are-a changing in russia; you've missed putin's mood of national rebuilding that carries a great deal of support within the country. you have missed the hunger in the russian national psyche for a return to greatness that they see as their historical birthright. you may also be overlooking the historical precedent of russia's startling capability for re-invention, re-armament and aggressive, ruthless expansion.

defence budgets can be expanded. you think putin and medvedev cannot return to a command economy to drive economic and military re-armament? they can. and if they choose to, they will. this is russia: the largest country in the world with still-untapped resources; 141 million hardy, intensely nationalistic people with struggle, sacrifice and obedience to the state engraved on their souls. and with a pool of 60-odd million males and females of conscriptable age.

for instance, while russian military materiel resourcing is at an all-time low today, they can *still* call on a 25,000-strong main battle tank force (not total armour, just strike armour - extraordinary) and 2,000 strike aircraft that dwarfs anything in europe. and it's at least partially deployable as recent events have shown.

(in the late 70s, general sir john hackett famously and controversially wrote in his seminal book 'the third world war', that western europe would last six days under the weight of soviet armour until nuclear strike became the only resort left open to NATO. six days. even if with 20 years of neglect and degradation that is now 60 days, it's no time at all and we ignore this in the west at our peril. i'm not saying this is the russian intention - far from it - i'm simply using it as an example of their embedded capability. although you may want to consider the word 'sudetenland').

good piece of analysis here from the sydney morning herald:
Putin hopes to revive Russian air power - World - smh.com.au

so, overlay the vectors of historical precedent, national desire, latent capability and political will and you have a very, very potent combination. and that combination is now within putin's grasp. how he chooses to use that combination is what strategic western thinktanks are now struggling with ... in the same way they (we) are struggling with how hu jintao and his politburo intend to capitalise on china's economic growth and already significant military capabilities.

yes we are moving to a 3 superpower planet - but it will be the old (US), the new (china) and the revitalised (russia). the best the EU will be able to do (despite its own deluded prognostications) is apply economic pressure - if it can overcome the bureaucratised paralysis of its own organisational structure. and based on precedent, that's a very big 'if'.

Luan Pra bang

The rest of Europe wants to get gas direct from Turkmenistan/kazakstan/Tajikistan etc to save money and stop Russia from dominating energy supply. Any pipeline from these places would have to run through Georgia according to some hence russia wants to control Georgia but I don't really understnad why they do not run the gas through Azerbijan and Armenia straight to Turkey and then to Europe.
To keep Russia in its box we have to stop getting our energy through them and only a new pipeline or nuclear power makes that possible. While Russia has the gas tap there is little Europe can afford to do but complain verbally.

Holy Ghost

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you're right - up to a point. and that point is that if russia now wants to get back out of the box [coffin as many in the west assumed] that perestroika ultimately and accidentally put the former USSR into, it will do so, regardless - pure putinism. never underestimate the bear. it may ache, it may be malnourished and its claws may be blunter, but it's hungry, it's ruthless and it's awake.

Leslie

Can we really trust an ex KGB man to be satisfied with Russia as it is now. I reckon he is looking for the excuse to take Georgia back followed eventually by the Ukraine. This is a very dangerous situation.

You may suspect whether they were that powerful during the Cold War Pete, but let me assure you that they, in parallel with the USA and the West, had more than enough to destroy the entire world! thanks goodness no one ever decided to test it out!

Les

serega

So if US wants to take Iraq and Iran its not a problem - the 2 countries it never had any rights to have.
But its not ok for Russia to want to control 2 former states that are almost under USA's control ?

PeteBrant

America hasn't invaded Iran, and the US will say that the invasion of Iraq was under a UN mandate, which officially, it was.

David Lock

OK, we can go home now lads

"Sorry boys - slight change of plan. I only said that to keep evereyone off our backs for a couple of days. In fact we need to do a bit more damage before we're off. To make up for it you will be free to do a bit, well quite a lot actually, of raping and pillaging and we'll blame it all on the Georgian peasants."

"Oh and when you do get home it wouldn't do any harm to get the map out and find out where Ukraine is "

dl

Holy Ghost

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good point les. the essence of putinism is the long-term reconstruction of the power, scope and unity of the former USSR under the banner of a new, Greater Russia. will he do it? of course he will. who can stop him? no-one. does he have an economic energy armlock on the west? yes. should we have done our damnedest to bring russia into NATO in the 90s? yes. are we now reaping the results of our own foreign policy errors? yes.

Luan Pra bang

Putin controls the media and government in Russia so he is safe from his own people, I wander why Russia always ends up with dominating tyrants in charge though.
The only threat the west can offer is economic but how much can Putin be blamed for his actions. The USA used the middle east to guarantee its energy supply by force in Iraq and with more subtle methods in Saudi/Kuwait etc. Russia was in danger of having various former republics start to sell enegry direct to Europe removing any control they had over the regions energy. Putin will now act to keep control of the gas tap.
The only solution I can see is home built Nuclear power, . If Europe could stop relying on Russian gas and oil in time then it would be easy to isolate Putin and starve him of cash, he would only have China as a market and then the price would have to drop.
The other issue is that the western countries have no apetite for the problems that would come with a serious dispute with Russia, the Russian people on the other hand seem to be quite used to poverty.

Leslie

!00% HG, and it frightens the hell out of me.

Les