alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Values have fallen by 0.9% for THREE consecutive months, from October. The BoE has just put the rate on hold again, and the mortgage lenders passed on nowt of the last cut, in fact some INCREASED their rates by 0.03%. Not much I know, but a rate INCREASE when the MLR went down?

Make what you want of it.

Alcazar

sti-04!!

I have just made a 120% profit on my last property (well i will have on the 25th of Jan). I didnt advertise my property either it was purely word of mouth.
Although some of those cribs you see on MTV wouldnt have had a look in with this place.
In saying that another property i have is struggling to even achieve viewings & has been on the market for 6 months & its just a typical new build 4 bed detached in a great location.

davyboy

^

You're getting pretty good about reminding people who well off you are

sti-04!!

Just stating facts & none of its liquid, its just assets

silent running

You can imagine what you want about the housing market. The fact is that buying a house, even a very modest one, is so far out of reach for a lot of people who aren't ALREADY owners, that all that's happening is that present 'rich' owners are essentially just swapping houses amongst themselves. Whilst current home owners congratulate themselves on how well they've done, they forget that there need to be the little people at the bottom of the ladder otherwise the rest of the market can go nowhere, in the long term.

You take a good look at a house, any house. Is it REALLY worth what's being asked for it? No, not in comparison to others that are similar but in ultimate terms, if it were destroyed today, would it cost anywhere near as much to rebuild? Of course not. It's a runaway market fuelled by panic. When no-one could get more than a 3 times mortgage, house prices were sensible and stayed in check because no-one but the super rich could afford to spend a great deal of money. Now you're saying that it's reasonable that the average house is what, somewhere approaching 200 grand in Britain (I'll stand corrected on that if it's 180k LOL) - when a lot of normal people are pleased to be earning 30k and there are even more who earn a lot less? That's bull**** and I'll stay out of it until the market crashes to a more normal, historically supportable level.

If you were one of the fools who overstretched yourself and think it's reasonable to live in a house that cost you your next 10 years' wages, then good luck to you, but don't keep crowing about how clever you are cos the rest of us see it for what it is, a mug's game. IMHO :-)

john banks

Some think the US is already in recession, sterling is a disaster, retailers are struggling, inflation is a risk, all whilst our interest rates are already fairly low. US, Spanish and Irish house price are declining with ours following. This is just a bit of vested interest property price ramping akin to reorganising the deckchairs on the Titanic, reminds me of the stories of the patch of land around the Imperial Palace being worth more than California at the height of the Japanese property bubble. "House prices are a matter of opinion, but the debt is real" sums it up well for me.

Sales volumes and mortgage approvals are plunging, new builds are being sold at auction without reserve, even the mainstream press have got hold of the trend now (except the odd contrary story as posted). The loose credit that funded the whole boom is tighter, with the mortgage products available on the ground now reflecting that - unless fast bloke disagrees and tells us he has sold lots of high LTV high income multiple with tiny arrangement fees and no proof of income in the last week?

I've already taken profits out of the UK house price boom, and my only regret is that I didn't transfer more of the proceeds into gold before I did.

fast bloke

Bob, - monthly fluctuations are pretty much irrelevant if you are in a house that you plan to stay in long term. Anyway 7% increase in a year is probably a net zero for most people. You pay your mortgage and running costs. John invests his cash and pays rent (I assume), your house has increased at approximately the rate is is costing you and the house that John might buy in the future has increased by the approximate value that his savings have increased. (Might be a couple of percent either way, but when it comes to buying and selling, the price can go up or down by a couple of percent depending on the weather at your first viewing, so overall I would say net zero for everyone)

p.s. - John - "This is just a bit of vested interest property price ramping"..... Of course you have no vested interest in talking prices down, even if it is only in your own head

john banks

I have an individual interest in them coming down of course, because I intend to buy again, as close as I can safely get to the bottom of the cycle, and I will liquidate everything and buy with no mortgage if it is beneficial.

Overall, my position is only just ahead of where it would have been if I'd have stepped up the ladder at the end of 2006. In the early months the main thing that kept up my purchasing power was paying out so much less in rent than I would have been on owning, which roughly offset the capital gains. Now the capital gains appear to be turning into capital losses even against a weakening pound, my day I think is just dawning... I am hopeful for holdings in Yen and gold to strengthen my position further. I'm a lot more optimistic just now than I would be if I still owned a house. Does anyone really think I should buy right now?

The property **** programmes are highly amusing, even though they were filmed last year before the credit crunch was biting the consumer directly. They are showing complete sheds of houses that cost a fortune. The only justifications for the values is that credit was available easily for them, and that they had a history of going up in value. The fact that they were buying a terrible house at stupid multiples of decent incomes is terrible, and will likely enslave them to debt for years. Why is it that inflation is considered bad in every sector except housing?

Deep Singh

I think you've timed it just right JB.

john banks

IF you are like me trying to buy/sell the cycles, then if you wait for YoY -ve you've missed it and will chase it all the way down. 2007 was the year the shoeshine boy would tell you to buy pwoperty.

If you're staying in the same house it all doesn't really matter very much at all!

I actually don't see all this as doom mongering, just managing assets carefully, appreciating that it moves in cycles, and trying to make money on the way up and down. A house price crash would actually be positive in many respects except that it usually takes the economy into recession for a while, but there is a lot of creative destruction needed right now IMHO.

pslewis

Prices down in 2008 by at least 5%

2009 will see a 10% drop

2010 will see the snowball really rolling downhill and the 30% correction will be achieved

Buy in 2012 which will be the bottom of the cycle

Terminator X

iTrader: (7)

Weren't you saying a similar thing back on 04 Pete

https://www.scoobynet.com/non-scooby...-collapse.html

TX.

pslewis

Evening UncleBuck, that was a 'blip' - this is the real thing!!

kingofturds

iTrader: (1)

2007 house repossessions jumped 65%

pslewis

KOT - the've got their heads in the sand ..... they won't hear you

dee052

iTrader: (1)

If I was a mortgage lender, I'd make up those figures too.

MikeCardiff

iTrader: (2)

If things has carried on as normal, then we would have had price drops in 2006 / 2007 rather than increases. The increases were caused by the lenders offering people silly income multiples just to get them to borrow - 7 or 8 times was about the highest I heard - even some of the fairly traditional lenders were giving 6x on 100% mortgages if people didnt mind paying a couple of thousand setup fee.

Had the lenders stuck to the normal 3 or 3.5, or even just gone up to 4, then a lot of people wouldnt have qualified to buy anywhere, and the prices would have started to drop.

Of course the figures given are an average for the UK, and the stupid prices in London have skewed these quite a bit. I know that Cardiff was seeing 10% drops in a lot of places, otherwise the houses were just sitting there not selling.

And thats the other point, average prices dont mean a great deal without looking to see if more or less properties are selling. OK, so the houses that are selling are on average selling for more, but are there hundreds of thousands of houses sitting on the market for a year without selling ( as is the case in my village - my parents house has been on the market for a year with only one offer on it, and there are quite a few that have been on longer than theirs - the only houses that are selling are the very cheap 2 bed starter homes, or larger homes that are priced more realistically ).

Important point though is who cares ? if there is a large drop then the only people who will be hit are those who bought as an investment ( about 5 years too late ) or those who bought something they couldnt really afford in the first place. If you arent planning on selling, and can afford the mortgage repayments then the value of your house is irrelevant.

Deep Singh

JB, do you think gold still has some upside? They say the inflation corrected value of its price in the late 70s would be $2000/oz!

As I've said, I think you've timed things well and will see the benefits of you're convictions

PaulC72

I think whatever you feel make your own decision and stick by it, rightly or wrongly it is you that has to live with what you decide, take other peoples views but no1 is rigth or wrong as we do not have any control over what is going to happen on predictions which will not be realised either way until they happen.

Me I am looking at moving a BTL property off the books to invest elsewhere, if it don't move we'll stick with it until the time arises again its not a cash requirement situation but at the end of the day you have to make the choice based on your own financial position, short game , long game you decide

john banks

Deep, I'm daily watching the gold and silver prices to buy a load more on the next dip, it will no doubt be volatile soon! I'm coming around to the idea that it and silver are going to the moon. I've been too slow to buy in with large quantities because I hadn't sorted myself out with a trading account (having used up ISA allowances I'm buying ETFs) and was reasonably happy with high interest accounts. I also had some reservations when sterling seemed to be doing well as to whether it was worth it. So I'm no way a gold bug, but I can't see much else to invest in apart from Japan at present (and so far that has made me losses on the stocks and gains on the currency). I think the bottom line is that I feel just holding sterling is a big risk in itself from inflation, the spread between interest rates and RPI is far too tight for taxpayers. We could deflate or inflate, so I don't know. I would quite like to be about 30% gold, 20% Japan, 50% sterling in cash accounts and index linked savings certificates, presently overweight on cash. 18 months ago I was 75% property, the rest cash or FTSE index trackers. I bought BP and M&S after their recent dips, latter on a whim - bit silly if we are heading into recession - I'll junk it if it recovers the small loss I've made or else hold it until it recovers), MSCI Brazil as well (EFT again). China and India seem bubble territory at present to me.

GOLDMAN 555

mmmm Notice who is saying this rubbish:

A Building Soc trying to put spin on the impending implosion of their business

The BBC(Gordon Browns Beatch) trying to put spin on the impending implosion of their goverment

No vested intrest there then

We are not on the verge of a crash we are in one

kingofturds

iTrader: (1)

Gordon Brown the tosser who sold off our gold reserves at an all time low then paid millions of compensation from the proceeds to African nations who suffered from even lower gold prices. Will they be paying that cash back now gold is at an all time high?

TopBanana

I'm mostly in gold. I view it as the nearest thing to cash right now - the great british pound is going the way of the dollar. Also short against the swiss franc, with the same principles behind it. I've missed many good trades wringing my hands over the perfect entry point. If you believe in the fundamentals it's probably worth taking a punt, maybe half now and reserve half in case in pull back?

Apart from that, I have some ISA money in Russia and some in agriculture. Apparently there's now an agriculture ETF, although I invested in a fund. I think soft commodites are going to run and run for several years.

Famous last words, but I wouldn't put too much money into Japan. The dragon seems to be in a semi-permanent state of slumber.

Deep Singh

John, I know I've probably missed the party on gold but could you pm me on exactly how you're investing in gold. ie through which ETF through which trading account etc. Also are you using a site/software to track movements in the gold price?

I'm sure you've done all the ground work already and hope you don't mind me hoping to benefit from it.

Many thanks

lozgti

Has anyone been paying attention to the woes of housebuilders,lenders who allegedly now can't afford to lend as much as they once could and an Interest rate that is realistically more like 7.5% or more for most people?

I have bought for too much.I reckon my 1929 3 bed semi should hae been worth about £150k tops.Not the 1/4 million we paid.

I expect the equity we have in it to disappear over the next 24 months.Does not bother me because

1.I didn't have that money before
2.I haven't used that equity to buy an X5 (even my milkman probably has a merc)
3.I have no credit cards/loans/car debts
4.I have fixed my interest rate for 10 years

I am ready for the forthcoming storm.I reckon an awful lot of people aren't which is why they keep laughing manically and saying 'it hasn't happened in the last five years so it never will'.Good luck to you all

PeteBrant

Yea ron year, house prices has risen - but the rate has slowed.

Month on month, house prices are falling.

I.e. from January 2007 to January 2008 house prices are up

From November 2007 to December 2997 house prices are down.


Just because the year on year figure is showing an increase does not mean that they are still rising.