Steel Prices?
17 November 2004, 02:43 PM
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Steel Prices?
Anyone in the Steel market?
I need to do a forecast on the increase in steel prices upto January 2006
With steel prices going up quicker than a ****** knickers when the pox is in town, makes my sphincter twitch
Any help........................... best guess in % would be cool
Thanks
Pete
I need to do a forecast on the increase in steel prices upto January 2006
With steel prices going up quicker than a ****** knickers when the pox is in town, makes my sphincter twitch
Any help........................... best guess in % would be cool
Thanks
Pete
17 November 2004, 03:35 PM
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YOU SEE 
every feckin thread i start, you two ******* or Minor Threat / NotoriousREV completley go off on one, i'm fecked off now
NOW back on topic, i need an answer by tommorrow aft
If not i shall apply the age old art of guesstimation, think of a number and double it, then lick my finger and stick it in the air (dont know why people do that)
TIA
every feckin thread i start, you two ******* or Minor Threat / NotoriousREV completley go off on one, i'm fecked off nowNOW back on topic, i need an answer by tommorrow aft
If not i shall apply the age old art of guesstimation, think of a number and double it, then lick my finger and stick it in the air (dont know why people do that)
TIA
17 November 2004, 03:37 PM
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Its the ****** fault for building 30 airports in one hit ....... we struggle enough building one new terminal but those rat bags have really gone to town. They have nicked all the steel hence the foundaries putting the prices up so much.........You ought to try buying steel and copper. Copper has gone up 400% in about 8 months.
17 November 2004, 03:41 PM
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Buzzer,
The market seems to believe that a levelling off trend can already be seen.
Jan 2006 is a long time away so I doubt you'll find anyone making such a long term prediction.
Chinese demand looks likely to soften through 2005.
... best guess % ? - no idea ... 20% over the period?
What is it you're specifically looking at? (pure CS order, stainless or combined?)
A google search will give you lots of stuff but nothing definitive.
Sorry - not too helpful. I'll pose the question to our estimators and see what they reckon. I'll get back to you.
Cheers,
N
The market seems to believe that a levelling off trend can already be seen.
Jan 2006 is a long time away so I doubt you'll find anyone making such a long term prediction.
Chinese demand looks likely to soften through 2005.
... best guess % ? - no idea ... 20% over the period?
What is it you're specifically looking at? (pure CS order, stainless or combined?)
A google search will give you lots of stuff but nothing definitive.
Sorry - not too helpful. I'll pose the question to our estimators and see what they reckon. I'll get back to you.
Cheers,
N
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17 November 2004, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Buzzer
YOU SEE every feckin thread i start, you two ******* or Minor Threat / NotoriousREV completley go off on one, i'm fecked off now
NOW back on topic, i need an answer by tommorrow aft
If not i shall apply the age old art of guesstimation, think of a number and double it, then lick my finger and stick it in the air (dont know why people do that)
TIA
every feckin thread i start, you two ******* or Minor Threat / NotoriousREV completley go off on one, i'm fecked off nowNOW back on topic, i need an answer by tommorrow aft
If not i shall apply the age old art of guesstimation, think of a number and double it, then lick my finger and stick it in the air (dont know why people do that)
TIA
17 November 2004, 04:01 PM
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Pug
Your dead right mate. One of our suppliers was buying direct a few months ago, he got a call that the container ship had been diverted to China as they "offered a higher price"
Numptie
I did a google but nothing really you could hang your hat (as if there ever could be) I have spoken with Corus and they said they dont envisage a rise after March and that they *hope* market prices will level off toward the end of the year. Please do come back to me with what they think............. oh its CS not S/S
Danny,
Yes you are right mate about January...... a further 10% to take it to March and then again which is ?
Given the expectancy for steel increase to tail off i would imagine O/all increase for the year to 15%.................... it sounds right but then again if it sounds right theres usually a nasty bite in the @rse waiting for you around the corner
Your dead right mate. One of our suppliers was buying direct a few months ago, he got a call that the container ship had been diverted to China as they "offered a higher price"
Numptie
I did a google but nothing really you could hang your hat (as if there ever could be) I have spoken with Corus and they said they dont envisage a rise after March and that they *hope* market prices will level off toward the end of the year. Please do come back to me with what they think............. oh its CS not S/S
Danny,
Yes you are right mate about January...... a further 10% to take it to March and then again which is ?
Given the expectancy for steel increase to tail off i would imagine O/all increase for the year to 15%.................... it sounds right but then again if it sounds right theres usually a nasty bite in the @rse waiting for you around the corner
17 November 2004, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Buzzer
Anyone in the Steel market?
I need to do a forecast on the increase in steel prices upto January 2006
I need to do a forecast on the increase in steel prices upto January 2006
17 November 2004, 04:32 PM
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Article from yesterday's Financial Times:
Arcelor predicts end to rampant steel prices
By Peter Marsh
Published: November 16 2004 02:00 | Last updated: November 16 2004 02:00
The steel industry will cool down next year after the massive price increases of the past 12 months that have buoyed profits in the sector, according to Guy Dollé, chief executive of Arcelor.
Mr Dolle\ 2 5 3 \ 2 6 0 whose Luxembourg-based company is the world's second biggest steel producer - said world steel consumption was likely to rise only 3-4 per cent in 2005, as against this year's expected 8 per cent. He said it was "impossible" for price increases to match the 50-100 per cent rises for many grades of the metal in the past year.
Mr Dollé was speaking after Arcelor said net profits for the third quarter had risen sixfold, from €101m a year earlier to €629m (£440m). Sales in the quarter increased almost 22 per cent from €5.9bn to €7.2bn.
The Arcelor head said general prospects for Arcelor next year were "very good", helped by high demand for steel, the prospect of higher prices for Arcelor's flat-steel shipments sold under contract and the full consolidation into the company of CST, its Brazilian subsidiary.
Contract prices - covering nearly 25 per cent of Arcelor's steel shipments - were likely to increase 20-50 per cent from early next year, said Mr Dollé.
"Our customers have complained about this but on the whole they accept it," he said.
"They know their prices generally held level during 2004 because they were buying under contracts that did not expire until 2005."
Excluding CST, Arcelor is expected to make just under 45m tonnes of steel this year, compared with 60m tonnes for Mittal Steel - the company being formed via a merger between Lakshmi Mittal's existing steel interests and International Steel Group of the US.
Counting the contribution of CST, the Luxembourg group is expected to produce 50m-51m tonnes in 2004, with the total rising to 51m-52m tonnes next year.
Mr Dollé said he was "very concerned" about the prospects of rapid increases next year in the price of raw materials such as coking coal and iron ore. He said the price of coking coal - of which Arcelor purchases about 12m tonnes a year - was likely to go up about 60 per cent in 2005.
Against this negative impact, the company was realising the results of efficiency programmes, which were likely to cut costs by €500m for the whole of 2004, Mr Dollé said.
Net profits for the whole of the first nine months of this year came to €1.49bn, compared with €629m for the equivalent time in 2003, while sales were up nearly 12 per cent at €21.74bn, against €19.45bn last time.
Arcelor predicts end to rampant steel prices
By Peter Marsh
Published: November 16 2004 02:00 | Last updated: November 16 2004 02:00
The steel industry will cool down next year after the massive price increases of the past 12 months that have buoyed profits in the sector, according to Guy Dollé, chief executive of Arcelor.
Mr Dolle\ 2 5 3 \ 2 6 0 whose Luxembourg-based company is the world's second biggest steel producer - said world steel consumption was likely to rise only 3-4 per cent in 2005, as against this year's expected 8 per cent. He said it was "impossible" for price increases to match the 50-100 per cent rises for many grades of the metal in the past year.
Mr Dollé was speaking after Arcelor said net profits for the third quarter had risen sixfold, from €101m a year earlier to €629m (£440m). Sales in the quarter increased almost 22 per cent from €5.9bn to €7.2bn.
The Arcelor head said general prospects for Arcelor next year were "very good", helped by high demand for steel, the prospect of higher prices for Arcelor's flat-steel shipments sold under contract and the full consolidation into the company of CST, its Brazilian subsidiary.
Contract prices - covering nearly 25 per cent of Arcelor's steel shipments - were likely to increase 20-50 per cent from early next year, said Mr Dollé.
"Our customers have complained about this but on the whole they accept it," he said.
"They know their prices generally held level during 2004 because they were buying under contracts that did not expire until 2005."
Excluding CST, Arcelor is expected to make just under 45m tonnes of steel this year, compared with 60m tonnes for Mittal Steel - the company being formed via a merger between Lakshmi Mittal's existing steel interests and International Steel Group of the US.
Counting the contribution of CST, the Luxembourg group is expected to produce 50m-51m tonnes in 2004, with the total rising to 51m-52m tonnes next year.
Mr Dollé said he was "very concerned" about the prospects of rapid increases next year in the price of raw materials such as coking coal and iron ore. He said the price of coking coal - of which Arcelor purchases about 12m tonnes a year - was likely to go up about 60 per cent in 2005.
Against this negative impact, the company was realising the results of efficiency programmes, which were likely to cut costs by €500m for the whole of 2004, Mr Dollé said.
Net profits for the whole of the first nine months of this year came to €1.49bn, compared with €629m for the equivalent time in 2003, while sales were up nearly 12 per cent at €21.74bn, against €19.45bn last time.
17 November 2004, 04:38 PM
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So is he saying that he's raised the price of steel to boiling point and so he's now going to start on coking coal and iron ore.
May have to take a step back now
May have to take a step back now
17 November 2004, 05:44 PM
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Buzzer,
What I asked ...
... and the answer ...
The way I understand it is that coke and ore supply is now catching up with current steel demand. When steel demand tails off next year, there'll be a surplus of coke and ore so the mills will pick it up cheaper and so and so.
HTH
Cheers,
N
What I asked ...
Originally Posted by Numptie
Off the top of your head ...
… what do you reckon the average rise in carbon steel price will be between now and January 2006.
Not work related – just a discussion (so don’t spend time – just a guess).
… what do you reckon the average rise in carbon steel price will be between now and January 2006.
Not work related – just a discussion (so don’t spend time – just a guess).
Originally Posted by Cost type chappie
According to those who are supposed to know it is expected start falling early next year, however unlikely to drop significantly. If I was budgeting I would assume that the current price would apply in Q1 2006 with perhaps a small inrease for inflation - say 5%.
HTH
Cheers,
N
17 November 2004, 07:45 PM
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Numptie
Sorry, i missed your post completley
Thank "cost type chappie" for me and thanks for asking the Q. TBH i'm probably more inclined to run with Corus train of thought although they will probably make sure that there is a strong element of doubt cast over their forecasts
Y'know, just to make sure that they still get orders in this year.
I'm tending to run with the nett +15%. If its getting a bit "close to the bone" then i'll just have to re-quote through offering it out to competitive tender.
Anyone got any views on the 15%?
BTW i have already had a fixed cost until January (which includes the January increase) suppliers wont even offer how long that increase is valid for though . What i do know is that there is a 3 month store of CS where i'm going to so i know i can get the steel for this price up until March next year.
So basically what i'm saying is, judging the increase from March 05 through to Jan 06, i'm suggesting a 15% increase
Sorry, i missed your post completley
Thank "cost type chappie" for me and thanks for asking the Q. TBH i'm probably more inclined to run with Corus train of thought although they will probably make sure that there is a strong element of doubt cast over their forecasts
Y'know, just to make sure that they still get orders in this year.I'm tending to run with the nett +15%. If its getting a bit "close to the bone" then i'll just have to re-quote through offering it out to competitive tender.
Anyone got any views on the 15%?
BTW i have already had a fixed cost until January (which includes the January increase) suppliers wont even offer how long that increase is valid for though
. What i do know is that there is a 3 month store of CS where i'm going to so i know i can get the steel for this price up until March next year.So basically what i'm saying is, judging the increase from March 05 through to Jan 06, i'm suggesting a 15% increase
18 November 2004, 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Buzzer
YOU SEE every feckin thread i start, you two ******* or Minor Threat / NotoriousREV completley go off on one, i'm fecked off now
every feckin thread i start, you two ******* or Minor Threat / NotoriousREV completley go off on one, i'm fecked off nowMaybe you should talk to these guys?
18 November 2004, 08:33 AM
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I worked for a steel fabricator for 3 years and i now work for a consulting enginers firm. 15% I think that would be a good guess, but as said it aint easy to guess. The main thing is gona depend on demand and supply.
With the general election not to far away, there is gonna be alot of spending last minute by the government which could create suppling issues at times, forcing the price up.
I know that buying imported steel is starting to become viable which in turn will bring the price down.
there are so many what if's and but's that i don't think its practical to guess that far ahead. 6 months may be more atainable guess.
With the general election not to far away, there is gonna be alot of spending last minute by the government which could create suppling issues at times, forcing the price up.
I know that buying imported steel is starting to become viable which in turn will bring the price down.
there are so many what if's and but's that i don't think its practical to guess that far ahead. 6 months may be more atainable guess.