Brendan Hughes

This is at least a start, for those of you interested.


However, this is priceless:

Sun
Editorial, April 21

"Mr Blair promises an honest and open debate on the most crucial issue to face this nation in decades. The Sun will make sure this happens.

"We will continue to expose the truth about this constitution: that it is a flawed and devious document which forms the foundation for a federal superstate run from Brussels. We will continue to tell our ten million readers openly and honestly how the constitution would take power from this country and hand it to an unelected European elite. Whatever bland words Mr Blair chooses, the constitution represents a massive danger to our independence and sovereignty."

Faire D'Income

There are several issues about this whole referendum that worry me immensely. Firstly, voter apathy could come into play given the poor turnouts in recent election years meaning that we are bounced into or out of something due to people's reluctance to actually register their opinion.

The potential tax implications are also worrisome as the phraseology "indirect taxation" could apply to any form of taxation outside income tax and National Insurance contributions. Who knows what we could be signing up for? In a similar way swapping the Euro for Sterling (I realise its a separate argument/referendum) worries the hell out of me, not because we'd be giving up the Pound but because we'd be giving the ECB control over UK interest rates which have a far more profound effect on our economy than that of our European neighbours.

Defence is another issue that could become a complete nighmare, with our Forces being sent into battle at the behest of group consensus rather than as a result of the decision being made by HMG. Imagine if you will the recent decision by the Spanish to bring their troops home as they are entitled to do so. If we/they were part of a European Defence Force then that decision would not be able to be made.

I'm not even going to sit on the fence. I think its a bad idea and I'd vote NO.

Dr Hu

I personally expect the best ever voter turnout on this referendum - I reckon the government has no f**kin chance - and most people will only be too glad to tell them that!

LOL

SomeDude

Brendan, I saw his speech yesterday on TV (I don't live in the UK)

I was truly wondering if he really had a masterplan, or was busy commiting political suicide. I still am.

I'm probably a bit more pro-EU than the average Scoobynet punter, but I think the UK in general is not exactly EU minded (tried to say it as nicely as possible)

So I really didn't understand him, but in a way admired his bluff. Stupid, fed up, or a visionary ? Time will tell, as usual.

Buckrogers

This whole EU thing really gets on my t!ts.

"lets join in, much better for us, dont want to get left behind"

What b0ll0x

Germany, prior to joining, had a very strong economy. Now look at it, struggling.

Billions are "lost" from the EU budget, un-accountable.

Our pound is too strong for other countries to buy. Truth is, we dont export that much. We import far more.

We have the fourth strongest enconomy in the World...AS WE ARE.
Why change?
Why risk what we have?

I know which way I am voting...we dont need any more muppets to tell us what to do, we have enough already.

BMWhere?

Buckrogers, you've obviously been reading the Sun too much!

The state of the German economy is nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with the re-unification of East and West!

As for the Euro, having lived with it for over 2 years in my pocket and even longer in my bank account I'm quite sure it would benefit the UK in the long term even though it may initially harm the economy. We may be #4 economy at the moment, but once France and Germany recover from their current downturn then the UK will dissapear into obscurity never to be seen again unless we join the Euro before that happens IMHO!

The constitution, at the moment I'm very sceptical about it, but I will read it in full and consider the arguments and make my decission when I'm ready. I certainly won't be listening to the tabloid press. I'm personally very worried about the fact that this is going to a referendum where the people are likely to vote based only on what they've read in the Sun or other tabloid press and voting NO just because they dislike Tony Blair. This is a referendum not a general election!

Biggins

IMHO, we will never rid this country of the islanders mentality that we so obviously have. That little stretch of water separating us from the rest of mainland Europe (please don't bother mentioning the tunnel) plays a big part in a typical thought process. Also, the strong patriotic (misguided) views of a large number of the population in this country based on ancient historic events don't lend themselves to acceptance of change.
As a small business owner struggling to survive in this already over legislated, litigatious nation, I say stay out of Europe and get on with what this country was once & could again be ...................... GREAT Britain. There is no doubt in my mind that if the shackles/constraints currently imposed were released a little, UK industry would rise up once again to be world leader. We can take on the world as soley the UK. It is a pipe dream IMHO to believe that such diverse economies/countries can be brought together and on equal footings. It doesn't sit well with me but we have to face up to the fact that the UK has more in common with the USA than it does mainland Europe.

tiggers

BMWhere,

That is one of the most sensible posts I've ever read on here.

It makes me laugh the number of people on here who've never lived or worked outside of the UK, but are all experts on living and working in other countries.

The tabloids and the ignorance of the average Brit have a lot to answer for.

tiggers.

BMWhere?

Thanks tiggers! It greatly saddens me the anti-European oppinions expressed on here by people who's only experience of Europe is 2 weeks a year in a Spanish/Greek resort that has a closer resemblance to Blackpool than anywhere else!

Biggins' comment above regarding having more in common with USA than Europe is complete rubbish. Sure we are closer to the USA than any other European country but we are still closer to a European way of life and way of thinking! Personally, I'd also rather we became more like the Europeans than like the Americans with thier completely money orientated capitalist society thats barely aware of the existance of the rest of the world!

As for any belief that Britain can go it alone and once again be Great, your living in a dream-world!

RichWalk

Forgive my ignorance here, but what presicely are we going to gain from this deal?
I own a small business which has bought and sold all over Europe and the world for more than 12 years, we already trade in Euro both in the Uk and Europe- so yes the exchange rate risk would be removed, however I tend to treat the currency issue separately. BMWhere, I like your long term view of things however politics in the UK are rarely handled on this basis and it worries me that this will be another example of how the powers that be leap forward finacially at the expense of the normal man in the street, who is left with even more nonsensical bureaucracy than we have to deal with now.

Buckrogers

I used to "read" the Sun when I was 12. Have not purchased that "paper" for at least 15 years....

Certainly would have a bearing on the country but if memory serves me, Germany recovered from this and then went down hill rapidly affecting joinging the EU in its current form.

How long have France and Germany had to "recover"?
Why would we dissapear?
We import far more than export.
We dont need the EU to survive, we are doing very well without it, IMHO.

BMWhere?

My understanding of the EU constitution is to set a fixed way of how the EU operates before the EU is enlarged with all the East European countries. Basically its intended as a protection mechanism so that the new members can't come in and ruin it! Basically we want to get this sorted before the new members come along and put in their 2p which will certainly be less in favour of the UK. The Euro currency is a completely seperate issue.

BMWhere?

Sorry, your obviously more aware of Germany's situation than I am, I only live there afterall!
The fact that the EU in its current form has been around longer that Germany has been re-united and that Germany got f-all financial help from the rest of the world to help the integration despite the fact West Germany didn't ask for re-unification and they are still, after nearly 15 years re-building the East is obviously irrelevent!


Since Germany re-unified. The French econamy is very closely tied to the German economy.


Because we're a very expensive little island that nobody else really cares about and with no manufacturing industry. At the moment we are enjoying a strong econmy due to the initial world market scepticism of the Euro. The Euro will recover (and is heading in that direction) with the French and German economies and the world financial markets will drop their interest in the UK in favour of the much larger Euro-zone!


That's generally considered a bad thing. And we also trade far more within the EU than outside it.


But we are in the EU and the fact that we are doing well at the moment is largely because we are in the EU. We very much need the EU to survive. If we were to leave the EU we would have very litte option than to become the 51st state and give ap all our sovereignty!

Faire D'Income

That is a huge generalisation. Just because people express a negative opinion regarding the EU, does not mean they are anti-European whatever that means.

You're contradicting yourself here by saying that we are closer to the US than any other European country and then repeating that with Europe. I'd say that we are halfway between the two cultures if you can put it that way. HMG has maintained the UK's position as the bridge between the US and Europe very successfully in my opinion, brokering and dealing with both trading blocs from the inside, just remember that the US is the biggest inward investor in the UK and the largest inward investor in the US is? You guessed it, the UK. As a trading community, the EU is our largest partner so we have a vested interest in keeping both parties on our side.

As for the point about the UK going it alone, I'd largely agree that in this day and age it would be extremely difficult although I would point to Switzerland as a successful example.

It's not just attitudes in the UK that are sceptical. You only have to look Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Eire and Switzerland to see that greater harmonisation within the EU is greeted with mistrust and in some cases downright hostility. However, the pro-Europe vote are very fond of ignoring this when its far easier for them to adopt an air of greater sophistication and accuse everyone else of being unpatriotic if their views conflict. Whilst there is an element of little islander in many people's response to European matters, it is not only confined to the British.

I do agree with your point about the uneccessary levels of bureaucratic legislation that is handed down from Europe which is hampering business in red tape and proving very costly to implement.

The problem with any referendum is that the Government can repeat the exercise ad infinitum until they get ther result they want.

Faire D'Income

That's a fair point. Out of interest, on your visits to the former East Germany have you ever seen any road or building developments that have signage indicating any funding from the EU? My understanding would be that this is not the case as Germany is a net contributor but I am curious.

I have to pick you up on this one because I strongly disagree. The fact that the UK's manufacturing sector is in decline is well documented and has been the case for a few decades now but we are still the fourth largest economy in the world. Does that not tell you something? A strong manufacturing base is a nice thing to have but it's not the be all and end all of an economy. The fact is, the City is the financial hub of Europe and is the largest international equity and derivatives institution in the World combined with the UK being a mature largele tertiary economy is the reason why we're experiencing GDP growth that is unheard of in the rest of Europe. It's nothing to do with the Euro and if you look at Europe pre-Euro then the only major currencies that were traded widely were the Deutschmark and Sterling.

Manufacturing depends a great deal on the control of costs and as labour is the most significant of these, then its no great surprise to see many European manufacturers relocating to Eastern Europe or the Far East. The UK is further along this route and is therefore better placed to grow and adapt as an economy.

What's happened with this thread and will happen in the wider debate, is that people are not debating the issue, they are debating Europe so all sorts of misinformed rubbish on both sides will come to the fore without the real issue being addressed. That's assuming that the various governments concerned actually agree on what form the Constitution will take so that we can then have a referendum.

Brendan Hughes

Has ANYONE actually clicked on the original link I gave, and taken time to read it? That was the whole point of me starting this thread.

Faire D'Income

Yes mate. Hence my point and the comments I made in my first post.

BMWhere?

Generally there is no EU funded signage because there is no EU funding. Germany's re-unification has been funded 100% by Germany. Yes there are new projects both in East and West that are EU funded in the same way there are projects in the UK funded by the EU.


Being from the North of England this is an issue that I feel very strongly about! Its quite apparent that the UK economy is increasingly moving towards and becoming dependent on the financial services industry.

Traditionally, the manufacturing industries have been based more in the North and West of England and Scotland and Wales while the financial services industry in based in London and the South East.

Whilst the UK as a whole may be a growing economy, its the South East that is benefiting from this while the rest of the UK is declining and struggling to find new forms of income.

I predict that as the Euro-zone becomes larger and the Euro currency becomes more mature then the UK markets will become less significant than those of the Euro and there will be a steady migration of power. This isn't going to happen in the next 5 to 10 years, but it will happen!

With no more financial services industry and no manufacturing industry, reduced farming, not much of a tourist industry then what do we have left?

Interestingly you point towards Switzerland as a country thats been sucessfull on its own. In reality you cannot compare Switzerland to the UK. Pre WW2, Switzerland was a bunch of farmers. They managed to stay out of the war by offering to hide **** gold for them. Switzerland has only really done well in the last 20 or so years and thats been based on numbered bank accounts and an increase in popularity of winter sports. Since 9/11 the USA and EU have forced Switzerland to ban numbered bank accounts and global warming is threatening the winter sports industry. The Swiss people themselves acknowledge that eventually they will have to join the EU. Oh, and most places in Switzerland already accept the Euro and without rip-off exchange rates!

BMWhere?

This is very very true. Its very easy, and the press help us here, to believe that there is a great conspiricy for Europe to screw the UK and to take away our sovereignty. The fact is, that any proposed changes affect all the EU countries and they are as hotly debated in other countries as in the UK. Do people really believe that France, Germany, Spain, Italy, etc. are all willing to give away their independance any more than we are?

There's also far more to European politics than a simply voting for whats best for your countries. I dare say most countries don't want the constitution in its current form, but the powerful countries will vote yes knowing that one or more of the smaller countries will vote no and cause to constitution to be changed. Its then the yes voters who have more say in what changes are introduced. Right or wrong, there are background games going on that result in you having more or less power in the EU and over the years Britain has played those games very well to become one of the most powerful players in the EU.

Faire D'Income

As a percentage of GDP the City contributes around 35% which has been the case for the last couple of decades so its already here, there is no moving towards it. The South East has been the engine room of the UK since the Second World War and provides the bulk of the Exchequer's income which in turn is spent on the whole country which is the basic tenant of redistribution of wealth, so its not just the South East that benefits.

You've missed my point about older economies moving towards a tertiary state and this is not just happening in the UK but also in Germany and France although at a slower rate due to strong labour representation. Companies are increasingly relocating manufacturing to cheaper countries, you only have to look at Poland to see how many German manufacturers are setting up there. The older and larger European economies are starting along this evolutionary curve from being large manufacturing bases to tertiary industries such as finance, ITm, oil and gas exploration, distribution, airlines etc etc. However, the UK is better placed because we're free of the restrictive labour practices that are prevalent in Germany and France, market reform has already occurred and we have strong relationships with the US, Japan and other European nations as inward investors in these fields.

The largest market for Euro/Eurobonds trading is London so as the Euro becomes accepted as a strong and vibrant currency, then the London exchange can only benefit. A strong Euro won't lessen the strength of money markets in London, far from it.

You've also missed my point about what constitutes a tertiary economy, its not just about having a strong financial services sector, there are many other types of industry included in this sector some of which I've included above.

As I said before, this will turn into a debate about Europe and not about the consititution.

Chris L

It's an interesting arguement - one that will keep going for a long time (yes, I did read the Guardian article). I have to say I do remain sceptical about the benefits. When we first joined the EU, more than 30 years ago, we joined what is in effect an economic trading group - at no point did we sign up for an EU consitution, centrallised policies on tax, foreign policy etc - things that would all happen under an EU constitution.

As has already been said, it is not just the UK that is highly sceptical. Don't forget that France only voted to accept the Euro by 1%. The disregard for the so-called rules (particularily fiscal ones) when it suits member states (recently that has included Italy, France and Germany) is very worrying, because it shows that when it comes down to it, governments will always put their national concerns above the rights and agreements of Europe.

For the first time the concept of 'Europe' is struggling for acceptance in the very places that it is considered strongest (such as France and the Netherlands). Personally, unless the vast majority of European citizens want this kind of arrangement, I can't see how it will ever work.

Blair is playing an immensley dangerous game and both Germany and France know it. Together with the UK, these 3 countries form the powerhouse of Europe. If a smaller member state voted againts the constitution, it would probably survive. If one of the big 3 vote against it, it will collapse. There is no way they could implement it. Germany's laws prevent them from hold a referendum, which just leaves the Uk and France. To be honest, if a referendum was held in either country, I think the answer would be no. This is why Germany and France didn't want the UK to hold one - it forces their hand and could be disasterous.

The impact of reunification on Germany has been immense. Don't forget that there a huge number of countries (especially from Eastern Europe) queuing up to join the EU. It will be the big rich states that have to subsidise these newer states for many years to come - a constitution will lead to closer harminsation of many rules including taxaxtion - the new states will need funding from somewhere....

I do believe that the biggest problem will be educating people on what they are actually voting for. The classic example is the Euro. On the face of it, it brings many benefits (and certainly makes life easier when you're abroad) - but if you sign up for it - it is totally irrevocable. There is no way to return back to you national currency. You would also have to sign up for a huge number of other agreements including taxation rights as part of the deal. Most people weren't aware of this. Would you still vote for it?

It'll be interesting to see what happens, but I'm pretty sure I know the outcome of any referendum in this country.

Chris

Chip

I'm amazed that the Sun gets 10 million readers. Surely 20% of the UK population are'nt that stupid are they.

Chip.

Brit_in_Japan

The European constitution debate will inevitably becomed merged with what people's views are of a more integrated Europe. Even deciding what the EU constitution is depends to some extent on one's own vision of the future. To some it will legitimize the move towards a yet more integrated Europe, with the inevitable concession of a degree of sovereignty. To others it is simply tidying up loose ends and making sure that the framework is in place to avoid bureacratic gridlock when expansion happens.

Is it possible to have an efficiently run EU when you will have 20 odd (sic) countries each with their own national agendas ? What sort of voting mechanism can possibly satisfy both the big countries (UK, France, Germany) and the smaller countries ? Will the big 3 accept giving up a veto ? Will Spain/Poland or even smaller countries try to insist on their own vetoes?

Maybe Tony has announced a referendum simply to nullify the Tories cries for it and to split the Tory front bench ahead of the next general election? A cynical tactical ploy for another term in office, surely not !

kammy

Not having a dig, or wanting to get into an argument, but surely the increasing strength of the Euro will devalue the Sterling. This will make the UK exports cheaper, and the Uk will have an increase in exports. At the same time, the Euro becomes more expensive, and so the Uks imports will decrease, further helping the balance of payments and economically helping the UK.
However, i personaly think the joinning of the single currency will help the UK as trade will not be diverted for cheaper, less hassle EU-15 countries. ( Nissan of Sunderland are threating to leave if the Uk doesnt join the single currency.)

Great post, but i think as with all economics, you will not find a correct or diffinative answer
kam

SomeDude

Good point Chris.

Even people who are pretty much hardcore pro-EU (like Karel Van Miert for example) have become really scared of the way it is all turning at the moment.

France & Germany not keeping to the Maastricht terms was possibly the hardest blow the EU ever had to take.

I blame the US After all, a unified Europe was mainly their idea, as they got a bit tired of us bickering all the time.

A wonderful idea, not sure about how it is shaped now though.