Place your bets on how low the FTSE is going to fall
11 July 2002, 03:17 PM
#4
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3000 imo.
There'll be more big companies coming clean about how they have also released questionable accountancy reports recently. They'll admit it now before a new prosecutions bill gets pushed through Congress. There are company directors thinking, ok I'll lose my job but at least I won't go to jail.
We'll see. Luckily I only have a few stupid ISAs that I've lost money on. I know a few guys whose life savings are diminishing by the hour.
There'll be more big companies coming clean about how they have also released questionable accountancy reports recently. They'll admit it now before a new prosecutions bill gets pushed through Congress. There are company directors thinking, ok I'll lose my job but at least I won't go to jail.
We'll see. Luckily I only have a few stupid ISAs that I've lost money on. I know a few guys whose life savings are diminishing by the hour.
11 July 2002, 03:37 PM
#6
I think lots of peoples savings are diminishing by the hour, the problem is that most people have no idea its going on... scary
glad to say most of my stuff is my own fault ie in my hands so not too worried, but I would be if some fund manager was looking after things
glad to say most of my stuff is my own fault ie in my hands so not too worried, but I would be if some fund manager was looking after things
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11 July 2002, 06:30 PM
#8
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I think it'll take quite a hammering
I'm amazed that the Dow has been so resilient as its still overstated by at least 30%, this needs to fall dramatically, which will inevitably have a knock on effect on the FTSE (at least the FTSE is not as overstated) should settle at around the 3800 ish mark and tread water for a while
The fact that the Dollar is collapsing will at least aid some of the US companies - but as much trade is interstate they wont see the full effect that would be shown if it was a big Eurpean country - as they are sheltered to some extent, that said I dont know how they are supposed to be financing their balance of trade deficit and huge public deficit - interest rates will have to rise, which will not have a positive effect on the Dollar (as its shows signs of mismanagement! - yep the USA has been living beyond its means for ages... and something will have to give)and dampen down any consumer led growth, dampening down investment activity and perpetuating the Dow falllllllllll....
Times are looking grim.....
I may invest in a Tracker - but in a couple of years time
What the heck you can still make plenty of money on Put options.... or IG index - predictions of falling rates. If you bet on the FTSE falling to 3700 at say £10 a point and it falls you could have yourself a few grand gains - totally tax free...
I'm amazed that the Dow has been so resilient as its still overstated by at least 30%, this needs to fall dramatically, which will inevitably have a knock on effect on the FTSE (at least the FTSE is not as overstated) should settle at around the 3800 ish mark and tread water for a while
The fact that the Dollar is collapsing will at least aid some of the US companies - but as much trade is interstate they wont see the full effect that would be shown if it was a big Eurpean country - as they are sheltered to some extent, that said I dont know how they are supposed to be financing their balance of trade deficit and huge public deficit - interest rates will have to rise, which will not have a positive effect on the Dollar (as its shows signs of mismanagement! - yep the USA has been living beyond its means for ages... and something will have to give)and dampen down any consumer led growth, dampening down investment activity and perpetuating the Dow falllllllllll....
Times are looking grim.....
I may invest in a Tracker - but in a couple of years time
What the heck you can still make plenty of money on Put options.... or IG index - predictions of falling rates. If you bet on the FTSE falling to 3700 at say £10 a point and it falls you could have yourself a few grand gains - totally tax free...
11 July 2002, 07:33 PM
#9
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Quite honestly I dont give a toss. The lower the better. The whole lot of them are reaping what they deserve. For far too long the stock market, the City and big corps have been on a gravy train scam that cuts out the man in the street who get shafted if he invests alone or ripped off if he goes into a fund. If you are not inside you are outside as Gordon Gecko said.
11 July 2002, 11:02 PM
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Next finobacci support on the S&P500 ( nearest approximation to the FTSE350 - as the Dow isn't broad enough ) is at 850.. this is almost cetainly not the bottom of the market. Expect a short term bounce off this
If you look back historically the fulcrum point is when the index trades on a P/E ratio of around 12. This would be 2800.
Look for Vodaphone at around 50p & gilt yields to be falling ( v.reliable indicator) to get close to the bottom.
There will be sharp rallies before this point, and it may take some time to get there ... somewhere around 2Q 2003 is my best guess.
Until then ... carry on shorting
Steve
Caveat Emptor - This is not investment advice: I am not qualified to give it.
If you look back historically the fulcrum point is when the index trades on a P/E ratio of around 12. This would be 2800.
Look for Vodaphone at around 50p & gilt yields to be falling ( v.reliable indicator) to get close to the bottom.
There will be sharp rallies before this point, and it may take some time to get there ... somewhere around 2Q 2003 is my best guess.
Until then ... carry on shorting
Steve
Caveat Emptor - This is not investment advice: I am not qualified to give it.
11 July 2002, 11:15 PM
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''If your not inside your outside''
''Greed is good''
What a great film Wall Street was!
£1m bonuses - I wish.......
Stevem2k - I agree... some more quantitative assessment - esp the long term p/e turn point - someones been doing there analysis...
''Greed is good''
What a great film Wall Street was!
£1m bonuses - I wish.......
Stevem2k - I agree... some more quantitative assessment - esp the long term p/e turn point - someones been doing there analysis...
12 July 2002, 01:58 AM
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4050 by lunchish tomorrow. Then the bargin hinters will kick in - They will have set their game to get in ahead of the 4000 rush.
Can someone tell me how right i was in a couple of days?
Cheers
Can someone tell me how right i was in a couple of days?
Cheers
12 July 2002, 11:47 AM
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That's correct - sortof.
Retail punters generally use spreadbetting firms to go short - if you are putting a lot into it the firm ( IG for instance ) will go to the market and 'borrow' stock to make your position.
You can actually go short using Contracts for Difference ( CFD's ) as well. You actually get interest on the short position - but get charged it on a long.
I use IG and Finspreads . Fins is good because you can 'practice' with very small positions.
Steve
Retail punters generally use spreadbetting firms to go short - if you are putting a lot into it the firm ( IG for instance ) will go to the market and 'borrow' stock to make your position.
You can actually go short using Contracts for Difference ( CFD's ) as well. You actually get interest on the short position - but get charged it on a long.
I use IG and Finspreads . Fins is good because you can 'practice' with very small positions.
Steve
16 July 2002, 10:01 PM
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Well we did 3861 intraday today...
Am expecting lots more red tomorrow and it to hit the same lowpoint.
Intel's missed it's (lowered) earning's targets in the US tonight.
Steve
(sticking with 2800)
Am expecting lots more red tomorrow and it to hit the same lowpoint.
Intel's missed it's (lowered) earning's targets in the US tonight.
Steve
(sticking with 2800)
17 July 2002, 07:58 AM
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Are we counting intraday lows, or just daily closures? I was presuming the latter.
But 2,800 isn't very likely, IMO, except perhaps for intraday. Considering there's even the possibility of an interest rate cut now, I suspect things'll get going again before we hit 3,000.
But 2,800 isn't very likely, IMO, except perhaps for intraday. Considering there's even the possibility of an interest rate cut now, I suspect things'll get going again before we hit 3,000.
17 July 2002, 11:19 AM
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Crush,
Yeah it will. Greenspan turned this market yesterday, mark my words! You'll be telling your grandchildren you remember the days the FTSE was under 4000, they won't believe you!
Terry
Yeah it will. Greenspan turned this market yesterday, mark my words! You'll be telling your grandchildren you remember the days the FTSE was under 4000, they won't believe you!
Terry
17 July 2002, 12:05 PM
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Puff,
That's what makes markets! If we all knew what was going to happen, there would only be one price, the "right" price.
Nobody gets it right all the time. After all, it's humans who devised this market, so it's as open to whims just like any other sentiment-driven human activity.
I reckon a degree in human psychology is more useful than any qualification in economics or maths to do this stuff!!
Terry
ps what DID happen with those Navtraks Puff??!
That's what makes markets! If we all knew what was going to happen, there would only be one price, the "right" price.
Nobody gets it right all the time. After all, it's humans who devised this market, so it's as open to whims just like any other sentiment-driven human activity.
I reckon a degree in human psychology is more useful than any qualification in economics or maths to do this stuff!!
Terry
ps what DID happen with those Navtraks Puff??!
17 July 2002, 01:15 PM
#29
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You'll
be telling your grandchildren you remember the days the FTSE was under
4000, they won't believe you!
be telling your grandchildren you remember the days the FTSE was under
4000, they won't believe you!
But I plan never to have children, so maybe my great nephews or something instead?
