More Trouble Brewing in Europe?
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Letting Greece fail creates a certain credit event where a lot of investors will lose everything. The investors include a lot of European banks who would then need to be bailed out. Propping Greece up will likely only delay the collapse and make it bigger when it comes, but under the right circumstances might buy them enough room to get their house in order.
Dave
Is it only me that wants to see Greece fail and a knock on effect that causes the complete collapse of the Euro ? I want our corrupt finacial system to fall apart so the world can realise how little we need it.
the whole bailout system, driven by the European banks, was wholly designed to lump the financial fall out on the Greek people (that’s why they are so p1ssed off)
this then allow the banks to keep the debt on their balance sheets, so they can pretend they will get their money back and the decisions they made to lend to Greece were "brilliant" ones by highly paid and intelligent bankers
the current situation is unsustainable, Greece will never be able to pay back the debts, never, the european union are living in Teletubby land - the interest payments will take most of their GDP
the investors need to take a big "haircut", and should have done a while ago
this then allow the banks to keep the debt on their balance sheets, so they can pretend they will get their money back and the decisions they made to lend to Greece were "brilliant" ones by highly paid and intelligent bankers
the current situation is unsustainable, Greece will never be able to pay back the debts, never, the european union are living in Teletubby land - the interest payments will take most of their GDP
the investors need to take a big "haircut", and should have done a while ago
Do you still believe that far from spending our cash as fast as he could for no good purpose, and continuously overborrowing to make the economy look good when it was going downhill, and flogging off half our gold reserves for the lowest possible price, and allowing the banks to go to the wall by their own selfish actions, that he was the financial saviour of the world's economy when the recession hit?
Les
Les
Les
Then it would be like Germany 1920's in that you would need a wheelbarrow full of them to buy a loaf of bread.....
one dollar worth about 4 Trillion German marks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
Shaun
one dollar worth about 4 Trillion German marks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
Shaun
What to replace it with though? Be careful what you wish for.
the whole bailout system, driven by the European banks, was wholly designed to lump the financial fall out on the Greek people (that’s why they are so p1ssed off)
this then allow the banks to keep the debt on their balance sheets, so they can pretend they will get their money back and the decisions they made to lend to Greece were "brilliant" ones by highly paid and intelligent bankers
the current situation is unsustainable, Greece will never be able to pay back the debts, never, the european union are living in Teletubby land - the interest payments will take most of their GDP
the investors need to take a big "haircut", and should have done a while ago
this then allow the banks to keep the debt on their balance sheets, so they can pretend they will get their money back and the decisions they made to lend to Greece were "brilliant" ones by highly paid and intelligent bankers
the current situation is unsustainable, Greece will never be able to pay back the debts, never, the european union are living in Teletubby land - the interest payments will take most of their GDP
the investors need to take a big "haircut", and should have done a while ago
The problem is the influence of politics... but how do you ever keep that out of things? You could have a constitution where government intervention is prohibited, but really it means nothing when people can just change it with enough support. Seems like these things are destined to repeat themselves in perpetuity.
It's funny, if you had people largely fending for themselves (i.e. no moral hazards) then personal responsibility would lead them to look out for themselves and set up a private system in such a way that they were pretty much in the same stable situation they are now (or maybe even better)... there really wouldn't be much suffering. But now after a century - in the UK and US - of increasing reliance on the state, if the policies creating the moral hazards were suddenly taken away there would be a lot of suffering, because people are so used to things as they are, and they're very exposed.
The problem is, as I'm slowly discovering, there's not necessarily any such thing as right, and even if there is and it seems reasonable and fair, might always counts for more. And a majority of people demanding something which might not seem very logical to an impartial bystander always wins over what should be considered right.
It's funny, if you had people largely fending for themselves (i.e. no moral hazards) then personal responsibility would lead them to look out for themselves and set up a private system in such a way that they were pretty much in the same stable situation they are now (or maybe even better)... there really wouldn't be much suffering. But now after a century - in the UK and US - of increasing reliance on the state, if the policies creating the moral hazards were suddenly taken away there would be a lot of suffering, because people are so used to things as they are, and they're very exposed.
The problem is, as I'm slowly discovering, there's not necessarily any such thing as right, and even if there is and it seems reasonable and fair, might always counts for more. And a majority of people demanding something which might not seem very logical to an impartial bystander always wins over what should be considered right.
The problem with any country leaving the Euro is this.
If I lent to a country in Euros I'd expect Euros back. IF I lend to a country and I might not actually get Euros back but some local currencies soley relient on that countries financial strength - then if I'm going to lend it will be for a much higher interest rate than I'm prepared to offer if I were absolutely sure I would get my Euros back.
Germany going back to deutschemarks probably wouldn't be too bad a thing. We know Germany is quite capable of supporting itself what with flogging BMW and Audi to the Chinese.
If Germany pulled out the Euro, although not solving the problem it would ease the burden on those countries not able to keep up with Germany.
There would be pain initially but it might save the Euro. Holding onto it for dear life is probably just going to make the final implosion far far worse.
If I lent to a country in Euros I'd expect Euros back. IF I lend to a country and I might not actually get Euros back but some local currencies soley relient on that countries financial strength - then if I'm going to lend it will be for a much higher interest rate than I'm prepared to offer if I were absolutely sure I would get my Euros back.
Germany going back to deutschemarks probably wouldn't be too bad a thing. We know Germany is quite capable of supporting itself what with flogging BMW and Audi to the Chinese.
If Germany pulled out the Euro, although not solving the problem it would ease the burden on those countries not able to keep up with Germany.
There would be pain initially but it might save the Euro. Holding onto it for dear life is probably just going to make the final implosion far far worse.
You can read my post as 76% for Greece to borrow for two years and 25% for them to borrow for ten.
Despite all their assurances, the Euro leaders have not succeeded in taking the heat off Greece. The problem is how much more good money is thrown after bad. Greece probably should be allowed to default and leave the Euro - it would help them and help Europe (as a continent, not a union) in the long-run. But the leaders of Europe are in a sticky situation, as they've set things up in such a way that the demise of Greece are basically down to them. If they 'let Greece fail', then they've failed. Greece would have defaulted by now if the EU was not there to bail them out, but now it's almost as if the EU leaders will be responsible for their failure. Obviously then confidence will be lost in the EU.
The knock on effect of Greece defaulting will be losses on the part of the lenders. Since some of them also happen to be also struggling themselves, it could affect they're ability to repay, too. The whole thing has the potential to cause havoc with the confidence of the markets.
Last edited by GlesgaKiss; Sep 13, 2011 at 07:34 PM.
Sorry Dave I don't visit that often and never saw this. Well for a start a lot of banks have euro Govt debt because they pre-empted a regulatory requirement to do so (BISIII LCR). The academics who set these rules are having a rethink.
Secondly,allowing institutions to fail would lead to bank runs the likes of which we have never seen before which will kill lending to important economic sectors such as small caps.
Secondly,allowing institutions to fail would lead to bank runs the likes of which we have never seen before which will kill lending to important economic sectors such as small caps.
Sorry Dave I don't visit that often and never saw this. Well for a start a lot of banks have euro Govt debt because they pre-empted a regulatory requirement to do so (BISIII LCR). The academics who set these rules are having a rethink.
Secondly,allowing institutions to fail would lead to bank runs the likes of which we have never seen before which will kill lending to important economic sectors such as small caps.
Secondly,allowing institutions to fail would lead to bank runs the likes of which we have never seen before which will kill lending to important economic sectors such as small caps.
so Euro Lite and the full fat euro
Rumpy pumpy is dying to federalise the eurozone into one country and has kindly offered to be president of the whole caboosh, at a very high salary of course. All the countries would have to underwrite the euro of course!
What really worries me is that Dave is so much of a europhile that he is likely to include us in the federalisation against our wishes of course which would be a traiterous act meaning the end of our country. No wonder he wont allow us the referendum that he faithfully promised before the election!
Les
What really worries me is that Dave is so much of a europhile that he is likely to include us in the federalisation against our wishes of course which would be a traiterous act meaning the end of our country. No wonder he wont allow us the referendum that he faithfully promised before the election!
Les
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Wingnuttzz
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Apr 26, 2022 11:15 PM









bomb them

