john banks

My main concern also. 20% of my income is not in sterling, only 10% of my savings cannot be quickly moved and a good proportion is already index linked (but can't go negative). Most of my stocks are defensive dividend payers with international exposure. Gold will play some role as well, but as you know I sometimes trade it actively as well as hold some all the time.

This has been a disappointing year for returns on cash, but I'm defensively positioned for a double dip.

SunnySideUp

Well, I reckon - medium term, property will remain a wise investment if bought in 2010

fatherpierre

It's still bad.

My friend bought a very nice 2 bed garden flat in Islington at the peak. Paid £375k for it.

He's now in the throws of splitting from his GF, so the flat (bought together) has to be sold. Valuations of £295k - £330k. We're talking a prime, in demand, London pad here.

It went on at £330k in November and has only garnered one offer @£295 so far. He's stuck in the place and has had to get a mate into the spare room to soften the blow.

The high end stuff may well be achieving 07 prices; but the normal places are still well under peak prices. The higher end is skewing the house price figures we see.

fatscoobfella1

iTrader: (1)

^^^^^^^^

My god...Nobody would have thought you could be approx 22% down in a couple of years.Especially on prime property in a top location..

£80,000 debt could take you a lifetime to pay off..

There is a big house near me,absolutely gorgeous and has a lot going for it.In the peak it was for sale at £1.3 million.Its now up for 950k..
Dont know if that says it way overpriced to begin with,but it still aint sold..

StickyMicky

The thing is, that people are still losing jobs, trade is still low for a lot of people, and nothing has really changed at all!

fatscoobfella1

iTrader: (1)

Yea..

I agree totally....Thats why i cant see things getting any better this year,i think that if everything remains stagnant it will be a result..

hodgy0_2

very true

And as I have said before – we are following the US style economic model, which is driving us inexorably to a two tier economy

john banks

Interesting report today that first time buyers can now afford property in 40% of areas due to low interest rates and drops in price. This seems to be a bull trap to me as the low interest rates cannot last forever. If I had the option to buy a £1m house at 1% interest (which is still better than is possible for new lending at present I think) I'd only be paying what I pay now in rent. However, the only reason I would be tempted is if I believed that prices would always go up as the capital still has to be paid for the house to be mine. If this house managed to lose just 10% of its value, I would have paid/lost 11 times what I pay in rent. If the interest rate when up to 5%, I would have paid 5 times what I pay in rent.

"Affordability" is therefore a sham that appeals to people who only look at the monthly payments? Especially when we effectively have a government sponsored teaser rate to stop it all collapsing?

We have people taking a very highly geared bet on house prices from when interest rates are at a very low level and the UK has considerable fiscal problems where rising taxes and unemployment seem likely. I think many people buying in 2010 will end up in horrendous negative equity and broke.

stevebt

iTrader: (8)

I agree there, if I can maintain the same amount of work this year as I did last year I will be happy. 2011 will see the start of a definate change and a most needed one for a lot of people

fatscoobfella1

iTrader: (1)

In my line of work we have a contract worth around £40k,but were pretty sure were going to lose it this year.Not through any fault of ours,we have maintained the contract for 7 years to date,and never had a problem.
The company is cutting back and is looking for the lowest priced garage to take over there fleet..No other consideration,just price... The fact that we do there vehicles as cheap and quickly as we possibly can may not be enough anymore.
Im sure that if the work does go elsewhere,it will return,but may take 12 months or longer.
Having paid off my mortgage its not a major factor for me personally,but 40k to the business is a huge sum.

I was thinking of buying a bigger house and taking a small mortgage on later on this year..Will hang fire i think and see what 2010 holds...

stevebt

iTrader: (8)

A big drylining company I know locally has lost out on 2 big contracts recently by pricing over the top, £70 over the top to be precise Firms are being really petty for the cheapest price at the moment and if your not as competetive as possible you will be losing all he work!

fatscoobfella1

iTrader: (1)

Aye.....

We realise that..

Just dont think the company realise how competative we are.. As an example,we still service the vehicles at the same rate we did in 2002...

Thing is,its easy for another place to undercut when they have all our figures in front of them aint it.They then instantly look cheaper.

hodgy0_2

as i said -- we are moving to an economy that knows the price of everything
but the value of nothing

njkmrs

I will settle for another year of cheap Mortgage repayments .

Cant see House prices taking off anytime soon to be honest .

I spent plenty of time last year telling the Doom Mongers it wouldnt be as bad as they said ,and I am confident it was,nt .

Have a Good New Year Folks .!!!!!!!

SunnySideUp

When I look at the service requirements of my 1995 MX5, they are more demanding and more expensive than my daughters 2005 MX5 - cars are cheaper and simpler to service these days ....

How do they get your 'commercial in confidence' figures? And, if they are cheaper, they are cheaper .... I guess?

fatscoobfella1

iTrader: (1)

Think about it Pete,

If a company says we hav 10 vans and this is what we are charged for sevicing them...ie £1200

Then the next guys say we will do them for £1050....

Not hard to deduce is it...

If your also suggesting it costs more to service your 1995 MX5 than your daughters 2005 MX5,your more stupid than i thought,or more gullible..Delete as appropriate..

SunnySideUp

Now, now .... I service both the 1995 AND the 2005 MX5's - I do know which is the more costly to service and run - it is the 1995 car!! Fact - so, I am neither gullible or stupid (but then you know that anyway).

As an example - because you clearly struggle in your own area of business - the 2005 MX5 has a 10 year Anti-Freeze ..... the 1995 MX5 needs to renew every 2 years.

If you are still under the illusion that cars cost more to service today, than they did 5 years ago, then it is no surprise to see that you are being undercut by those who know whats what.

Anyway ...... house price thread .....

fatscoobfella1

iTrader: (1)

Just put 10 year antifreeze into your 1995 car...

Or does that simple logic defeat you ?

Many newer cars need pollen filters every year,costly platinum or iridium plugs biannually..

Servicing costs have changed little or nothing at all,all parts have gone up relatively of course......

Believe me i service around 500 vehicles a year..so over a 25 yr period,thats quite a number of cars..

SunnySideUp

Oh dear, please don't come anywhere near my cars - will you?

I won't go into the different rubbers and seals and how they respond to changes in the chemical make-up of fluids in contact with them ....... suffice to say that you may have lost the contract on more than price alone.

SunnySideUp

Back on topic .....

UK house price predictions.

What the 'experts' think will happen in 2010

Yolande Barnes, Savills -6%

Hetal Mehta, Ernst & Young ITEM Club -5%

Bloomburg survey of 14 economists -1.6%

Reuters poll of 32 economists +1.8%

Nicholas Leeming, Zoopla +2% to +3%

Michael Saunders, Citi +5% to +10%

These are forecasts for the average change across the whole of the UK, but there will be huge regional differences.

dpb

Cars have become a lot more difficult to service yourself ( computers did that ) therefore they kinda would be more expensive to run regardless

SunnySideUp

House Price thread!!!!

SunnySideUp

The number of people in the UK taking out mortgages to buy a home rose again in November but the appetite for other loans and overdrafts continued to fall.

The Bank of England figures show that mortgage approvals stood at the highest level since March 2008.

There were 60,518 mortgages approved for house purchases in November, up from 57,718 the previous month.

But consumers continued to pay back unsecured loans, with consumer credit falling for the fifth month in a row.

Although credit card lending rose slightly in November, the lack of popularity of other loans and overdrafts meant that people paid back £376m more than they borrowed during the month.

hodgy0_2

i read those figures -- astounding

fatscoobfella1

iTrader: (1)

Dont talk like a wet behind the ears leadhead..

As long as you drain all the old coolant out (blue/green),there is absolutely no problem in using longlife coolant (orange/red) in any car...

Dont show yourself up..

SunnySideUp

And how will you get it ALL out?

Like I said, though - this is a house price thread ... we can discuss why you are wrong somewhere else if you wish - start a thread on the wisdom of mixing coolant, see what you get.

fatscoobfella1

iTrader: (1)

Pete...

My last word on this.Just show me any evidence that you can find that says longlife coolant cant be put in an older car..

Anyway,house prices up by 5.9%...

Especially on the south coast where there is a pink tinged rainbow on every corner.

SunnySideUp

I can't see any pink tinged rainbow ...... just a few flying pigs powered by a mixture of coolants

Prices up by 5.9% - yes, but what about in 2010?

SunnySideUp

Mortgage lending was "surprisingly strong" in December, but the figures came as one building society announced a sharp rise in rates.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said UK mortgage lending increased by 14% in December compared with November, to £13.7bn.

Looks like the market isn't slowing at all .... in fact, it's pretty much back to normal - everything is slotting into place nicely and quickly.

BBC News - Mortgage lending up and Skipton raises rates

stevebt

iTrader: (8)

BY next year we won't of even noticed we had a recession