Im in Aberdeenshire, i think Rossyboy is too.

Holding up well up here according to the Nationwide house price index, it's barely fell and the index showing Q1 2009 (todays release) is still higher than that of the figures shown in Q1 2007 (Average £150k now, £139k in 2007 Q1)

Scotlands LR (Rosea) confirms this too but with different positive figures. Dont confuse this with me stating that this area is rising, it is not, its just not fallen much off peak (£160k ish)

When you look at the media and at the title of this thread, the country as a whole is supposedly back down to 2004 levels but this is far from the truth in certain areas.

Scotland in general never seen the same HPI boom that south of the borderline experienced, so as a result will have less to fall. It was the same with the early 90's crash.

 

Scotland is just behind the rest and this time has had a much bigger boom than before the last crash. It looks more vulnerable than ever with prices comparable to many areas of England and with lower average incomes.

I'm using you and the other Snet house price bulls as my contrarian indicator Once you say housing is a terrible buy I will dip my bread

You're calling it way too early and will be as wrong as all the other bulls have been so far IMHO. Maybe I sold my house a year before the peak, but I won't be catching a falling knife.

I'm very glad to be sitting by the sidelines, my wife's repeated redundancy is costing less than sitting in a depreciating house would be.

 

Oh dear. The crash is back on. So much for the spring bounce!

Halifax -1.9% Mom, -17.5% Yoy

Of course, if you read the Nationwide figures, we're up 0.9%.

Ho-hum.

 

House prices are still 140% of their longterm average, and with increasing unemployment, ever tighter bank-lending rules being brought in, and people saddled with record debts then they're still got a hell of a long way to fall!

 

Yes, but how will decreasing equity encourage more spending? It won't. Like you say, a good portion of the UK is saddled with a house that is losing money and lot's of unsecured debt. With this in mind, ever decreasing house prices will not encourage people to spend, as they have no money!

 

Agreed! I wasn't implying anything other!

 

I'm still waiting for a decent drop round our way so that the price differential to upgrade is smaller.

 

I know, but I just think that if people are struggling to get mortgages anyway, I don't see house prices dropping much further as there is nothing to be gained. Especially when you consider how cheap it is to borrow now. (if you have a decent deposit)

 

Surely that's the point A deposit of £xx represents a bigger percentage of the purchase cost if house prices fall, making it easier (possible) to get the loan for the balance.

 

Like I said, that's fine if your own property hasn't gone into ne.

 

The wealth effect for those on tracker mortgages is also false. Whilst the interest rate is negative in CPI terms, it is still positive in terms of the value of their house. This would lead me to put in everything saved on interest reductions (and more) into paying off asap. There are some encouraging signs of people paying down consumer credit and mortgages, and positive/increasing savings rates. However, this is also not a recipe to kickstart a consumer economy. I hope in vain that it would encourage investment in productive (goods and real services) capacity rather than consumption to redress our personal and government deficits.

 

Up Down Up Down .....

One thing stands out in all the figures .... people are paying their mortgages off rapidly and are saving more than they have done for decades.

Far from over borrowing, most people seem really clever financially and most are not suffering one jot ............... it's heartening to see, actually!

 

Have you thought about those who fell into the trap of running up enormous credit card amounts and the others who are losing their homes as well?

Les

 

Glad your not my neighbour .!!!

He He he !!!!!!!!!!!


Who needs neighbours like that ,?
























Only joking .

 

They will never drop that much no matter how much you hope or pray for them to! I can't see them dropping much more unless your counting reposessions??

 

But what do you base "them not ever dropping much more" on, other than the fact you obviously don't want this to happen?

If you include reasoning in the argument, then everything points to continued falls, with a very real possibly of as much as 40-50% falls potentially.

30% falls from here would only bring prices back in line with their long-term average, and the fact we're in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression (and it could yet develop into a the Great Depression 2) means prices will almost certainly go well below that long-term average.

Anyone who thinks things will suddenly pick-up, and prices will return to 2007 levels in the next few years is living in fairy-land with njkmrs.

 

Ahem .

Nowt wrong with fairies !!!!!

 

I'm currently looking at offering 15%-20% under asking prices and getting fairly positive responses from estate agents and some sellers.

Just sold my place and renting and watching. Loads of sellers still think their house hasn't been affected by the drop; but they're just not realistic. The false wealth they thought they had has gone, but they have their heads in the sand.

I feel sorry for many of them because they can't actually afford to move, so are holding out for a 2006/7 price.

There's plenty of room and scope for much more downward movement in the market. The recession hasn't even started to bite IMO.

 

Kind of the same here FP. Sold our flat after 1 day on the market due to the realistic price, but the people who own the house we want are after £20k more than its valued at. They originally wanted £40k more. Its been on the market since about September going by the pics.

We could end up renting aswell or living with relatives at this rate as I'm damned if I'm paying much over value in this market.

 

I'm onto a bungalow which was bought right at the peak in 2007, to 'do up' and make a killing.

The price is now 20% less than the Land Registry shows its sale price was in 2007. I fully expect them to receive offers 15% lower than the new price.

 

No way I'm paying the inflated sticker price, or anything near to it.

I might buy and then its value drop further. That won't bother me too much as my next place is a 10+ year house, but this is a buyers' market now and people need to get real.

I saw one place last week that's had £85k knocked off it, but I reckon is still £50k over today's value. Lovely place and we were interested, but the owners can't afford to sell it for its true value so they're stuck there for X years until it's worth a value that gives them break even value.

They bought in 2007, strangely enough!

 

I find the estate agents' line of "offers in excess of xxxxxxx" on their ads very funny.

 

I have seen that countless times in the past 9 months, and, without exception a sale has been agreed BELOW the stated price ..... it means NOTHING.

These properties do, normally, have a decent starting price to attract the bargain hunters and cash buyers ..... but, no-one is paying anywhere near asking at the moment.

 

It's a new marketing ploy. Along with them giving a price of £280k - £320k. To me that means they want £280k so a £240k offer is on the cards.

All fluff. Hard cash is what matters.

 

I see another trick is POA

Price on Application ..... ha ha ha as if it's some £Million Mansion when all it is is a 2 up 2 down BTL failure!!

 

I couldn't care less about wether they fall or not, its just not gonna drop to the level people are hoping for. Yes we are in a bad recession but if you don't need to sell the price drop has no affect on you what so ever and its only affecting the reposessions of which I currently don't know anyone who has or is currently being reposessed.

I don't think the prices will reach the levels of its peak for quite a few years yet, the housing market has already bottomed out and will recover end of this year/ begining of next year. I'm sure I said this months ago as well

 

Interest Rates and Inflation will rise rapidly in 18 months time - what will that do to House Prices?

Maybe there is a blip now, and there is a lot more activity in the market, but - medium term? Not too sure that they will rise much beyond where they sit now to be honest.

 

stevebt, I'll have to respectfully but completely disagree with you

So far I've been right and the Scoobynets have been wrong