haha, buying boom, thats funny as. they obviously never have tried to get a mortgage, getting on the ladder is impossible without a 15k deposit min.

banks just arn't lending, simple as, personaly i think another 5% drop at least

 

Well there is some concern over Interest Rates at the moment .

My view is they wont rise substantially any time soon .Some have said 5% before we know it but we may as well shut the blinds and pull the covers over our heads if that happens because the country would fold .


BoE needs to hold its nerve and keep them just as they are and I think by the 3rd quarter we should be more settled into the recovery with House prices stabilised .

And then its onwards and upwards .!!!!

 

There is no way the housing market will start rising thus year. If anything its only just above the vbottom so will be a bit more time before we can relax and start spending again.

 

If interest rates start rising - which I believe they must - then any confidence will be knocked out the market and prices will fall rapidly ..... but, we really need forced sales to see a proper collapse - and I'm not sure that will happen?

 

Labours massive public spending legacy and legions of none-jobs should guarantee than we won't see much unemployment.

It's the East German model.

 

Were ****ed. BOE knows it and are caught in the headlights.

 

High inflation makes the public debt look smaller....

 

And high inflation and no pay rise means your earnings are being eroded away.

 

At least I haven't got any savings

Steve

 

About time we had another pop at House Prices ....

Interest Rates to be hiked 3 times this year ... job losses ... confidence knocked ... earnings stagnant ... inflation rampant.

This can only result in falling house prices - down 20% according to some ...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011...ll-20-per-cent

 

 

I thought the recovery was set to be starting in 2012 so there is no way it will drop 20% this year. Prices will never drop more than what it did when all this recession started and I doubt it will even get that bad. Anyone wanting a bargain has already missed that boat and when this bad slump passes there is no way ever they will fall to what people want them to as this will of been the worst recession we will of seen ever!

 

We didn't see much of a fall in 2008 .... this time will be different I fear.

Oil prices are about to double, interest rates will be 2% before the summer (that's FOUR times where we are now!), wages will be stagnant, there is a real fear amongst families.

 

are these are the same people who waited in 1994 (with the highest point of repossessions and in the midst of a recession) for the prices to fall to pre 82 levels

i think they probably are

 

If interest rates are even at 1% by the end of this year i will be amazed, no chance will they go to 2%, that would kill any chance of recovery.

 

Hodgy, which ever way you play this, its the worst recession you have seen in your lifetime. I'm pretty sure this is worst in history? The worst is over for this and most people are getting used to wage levels. I'm looking forward to when we come out of this and not for house prices but more for pay rises !

 

I know steve and unless I didnt make myself clear -- I pretty much agree with your post/analysis

 

 

I sold and bought property in 1994.

The sale was 33% off its peak in 1989 .... I bought for 47% less than the vendors paid new in 1990!

That was far worse than it is now ... in terms of houses coming to the market under cutting the rest and driving prices down.

Of course, interest rates were 6.25% - TWELVE times where they are now!!

 

What about in real terms? There is a very good chance. Inflation is running at 5% now pretty much without question. That is going by the RPI. Now the way these things are measured borders on the ridiculous, so it wouldn't be crazy to even suggest real inflation for the average individual is a couple of percentage points higher. But even the CPI at 4% eats away and over the course of time does its damage. There is a lot going on right now that you can't see at a glance by looking at a nominal price chart.

There's no reason to believe we're heading for a rosy future just yet. I agree there's no point living your life in fear of something that may or may not happen in the immediate future, but it just seems stupid trying to speculate on property again right now. By all means buying somewhere and adding a bit of value, but not just buying something and hoping the price goes up. There's nothing to suggest that the average house would do that ffs.

 

The long term average is above 5.5% ...... I think we will see 2% easy ....

 

Glesgakiss, its doubtfull property will drop much more and if it does will it make any difference as its a lottery on what people will accept for their home. If your buying a home your in it for the long run and now is the time to buy err well it was over a year ago but you don't want to miss your last chance. Whatever happens you always need somewhere to live whether you make £10 a week or £10m you still need a place to live

 

I think we need to see interest rates rise before you can actually get a good deal from the banks? Interest rates are at say 0.5% yet actual mortgate rates are around 5%? The banks are robbing everyone for as much as they can get to build up thier reserves, god bless em

 

It would be madness to buy NOW and watch 20% of the equity disappear ... much better to wait until 2012 when things may be clearer.

 

True .....

The Base Rate bears little resemblance to the real world ... that's why it will rise to 2% at least by the close of 2011.

 

Did you read what I said though? It doesn't have to drop 'much more' in nominal terms to perform poorly. And it's false logic to say that if you're on £10 or £10m the house prices will still be the same. Income drives these prices, so if people are earning naff all or our economy is going down the sh*tter, people aren't going to be bidding up houses.

 

Btw, I say all this while looking around for flats/houses.

 

I will bet you £20 in the next year house prices don't drop 20%. Houses are only going to stagnate, the market for new houses is still there and they are making cash by ripping all the contractors off to get new houses built for much cheaper prices. It has been 3 or 4 years now the market has been fecked so its going to rise soon and with that brings proper wages. Its a sad state that when property is cheap you can't buy because they kill all the wages and we know when the wages rise the property will and we are back on the vicious circle

 

A friend of mine bought a new house and completed at the middle of last year..A nice 4 bedder with garage on a development in Cheshire..

When they began marketing the houses they were £299,995... They then dropped over a period of 6 months to £275,000..
He was in a great position as he had sold his house and could pay cash,he negotiated a deal and bought for £250,000.. Great,a £50,000 drop on the original price...

Price of the house today...???? Next door is for sale at £230,000

 

A neighour of mine sold STC just before Xmas for £217k. Full asking price. Since then another house has gone on the market for £205, and last week another for £192. My neighbours sale fell through on Friday. Wonder why? The buyer wanted to renegotiate on the price, having seen these two properties come on the market. And fair play to him. Would you pay £217k for a house when an identical property can be yours for £192?

It's a race to the bottom now, and anyone who thinks house prices will not fall this year is either in property with a VI, or deluding themselves.