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House Prices Now At 2004 Levels

Old Feb 28, 2009 | 10:53 AM
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Nice one
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 11:51 AM
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Well played - I would have probably gone back to option 2 when they refused the second time. Ahh the long game...

D
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted by stevebt
Would YOU sell your house for 50% less than the market value of last year if your not desperate or would you just wait for a recovery ?????
Yes I would ..... assuming the rest of the market has also dropped 50%!

I can get that 2007 £MIllion house for £500,000!!

No brainer really, I have no bother at all with relative values - it is a business transaction.
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 05:50 PM
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Rightmove report increased interest in house viewings !!!!!
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 06:06 PM
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Had a look at the new build today and there was a fair amount of people. That said, spring is normally a busy time for viewing property anyway.
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 06:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Diesel
Mate got a new build £145k for £94k this week. Played hardball - but that shouldn't be too tough for the developer guy with a Bentley and some tats Good luck to both D
Got them down to £119K, they'll pay 10% deposit (we have 10%) and chuck in £5K of options. If we use their mortgage broker (subject to approval) they pay the arrangement fee as well. To buy or not to buy, that is the question!
They are phoning us back next Saturday so I'll try and get some more off the price.
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 06:12 PM
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Originally Posted by SunnySideUp
Yes I would ..... assuming the rest of the market has also dropped 50%!

I can get that 2007 £MIllion house for £500,000!!

No brainer really, I have no bother at all with relative values - it is a business transaction.
you see there is the main problem, if it worked like that it would be easy to move, but not everyone will take a hit thats why they will just sit it out. You may be happy to loose say £50k on the sale expecting the bigger house to be proprtionately dropped as well but the bigger house may not want to budge on their price so it will create a massive price difference. People will only take a loss if they are desperate or can grab a bargain and bargains are only happening if you don't have a house to sell
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 06:35 PM
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Originally Posted by njkmrs
Rightmove report increased interest in house viewings !!!!!
So what?

I viewed a 3 bedroom place today myself.

3 bedroom terraced house for sale in Keens Lane, Guildford, GU3, GU3

Was I going to buy it? Never. Was I a viewer, yep. So, viewings are up. Great news. Tell George Wimpey and Co. The house price crash is over!
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 06:51 PM
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We put ours up for sale and sold in a week. We've now got 4-6 weeks left before we are out. Wasn't expecting that one.
Still, it puts us in a nice position for buying once the money is in the bank.
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 07:35 PM
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'Some' properties will always sell .... the cottage with roses round the door, babbling brook in the back garden and sea views to the front (for example).

But most are 'also-rans' and need to be priced aggressively to sell.
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 08:10 PM
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I was speaking to a lad today who has a building firm that make roof trusses etc .
He was telling me building firms are cranking up the new builds again .Using their own funds rather than borrowing ,probably to save on interest payments and allowing them to sell at reduced rates .He reckons its working .

But for the Doom Mongers ,the world may very well be ending tomorrow .There ,everyones happy now !!!!
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Old Mar 1, 2009 | 09:13 PM
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The FSA are about to step in and limit Mortgage Borrowing Multiples and LTV's. This will limit any price rises and will certainly see the average house price drop to 3.5X the average wage ........ which is quite a long way down from where we are now.

"The FSA has over the last few days stepped into the limelight with regards to the future regulation of the UK mortgage industry. It seems inevitable that we will see a tightening of the regulatory framework which covers the mortgage industry and far stricter rules on the types and size of mortgages and loans which can be provided"

Source:- Mortgages News - FSA set to tighten UK mortgage lending rules
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Old Mar 1, 2009 | 10:02 PM
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comments in this thread need to be split into people talking about "New Builds" -- with zero transactional history, hence the only value is the one put on it by a developer and, for want of a better term "old" house with a history of transactions, and hence a "value"

Personally I would never buy a new build -- unless a pure investment, then I would offer 30/40% less than the developer values it at.

Same with any flat built in a devolvement in the past 10 years

a friend of mine bought a v large 5 bed new "new build" house for 500k, 5 years ago, he cant sell it for £450.00, (I reckon the true value of the house was 380k when he bought it) if he had put that 500k into a house in one of the surrounding villages it would be worth 600k (maybe from a peak of 750k)

so when people talk about the value of property the only relevance to me is proper houses, no new builds or flats above a chip shop in the high street – off course they have lost value,

I read a report in the woodland times yesterday that the bears **** in it!!!!!!!!!
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Old Mar 1, 2009 | 10:57 PM
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Originally Posted by njkmrs
I was speaking to a lad today who has a building firm that make roof trusses etc .
He was telling me building firms are cranking up the new builds again .Using their own funds rather than borrowing ,probably to save on interest payments and allowing them to sell at reduced rates .He reckons its working .

But for the Doom Mongers ,the world may very well be ending tomorrow .There ,everyones happy now !!!!
mmm? So, a developer's sitting on a parcel of land he bought a couple of years ago. What's he going to do with it? Sell it for a loss, or build as planned and try to recoup his money? Build costs will be slightly cheaper than budgeted, and there's always the possibility of an upturn by completion date
The old general rule of thumb - 1/3 land, 1/3 build and 1/3 profit still gives plenty of room for manouevre... ... for now.
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Old Mar 1, 2009 | 11:04 PM
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New Builds are a nightmare ... as has been pointed out above, no previous valuation history - and why Mortgage Lenders are loathed to lend on them.

They have always carried a New Build Premium - the clever will only pay 60% of the developers 'valuation' .... as that wipes out the Recommended Retail Price which the developer 'makes up'.
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Old Mar 2, 2009 | 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by SunnySideUp
New Builds are a nightmare ... as has been pointed out above, no previous valuation history - and why Mortgage Lenders are loathed to lend on them.

They have always carried a New Build Premium - the clever will only pay 60% of the developers 'valuation' .... as that wipes out the Recommended Retail Price which the developer 'makes up'.
I think if you do your homework on a new build and buy at the right time, you can't go far wrong. For me, now is looking like a mighty fine time, if as you say, you can get the price down. Some will play ball, some won't, but deffo a buyers market.
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Old Mar 2, 2009 | 11:38 AM
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I dont see the hang ups about new build to be honest .
If its a quality build in a decent area and suits your needs then it is no different to buying a Graded listed building built centuries ago.

If purchased at the correct price ,it is no different and no less of a property.
You need to weigh up size ,layout ,garden etc compared to other houses in the area and get your valuation from that ,just as you would if you were buying an older property that has been previously lived in .

Its common sense really .
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Old Mar 2, 2009 | 01:55 PM
  #618  
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Originally Posted by nixxon
mmm? So, a developer's sitting on a parcel of land he bought a couple of years ago. What's he going to do with it? Sell it for a loss, or build as planned and try to recoup his money? Build costs will be slightly cheaper than budgeted, and there's always the possibility of an upturn by completion date
The old general rule of thumb - 1/3 land, 1/3 build and 1/3 profit still gives plenty of room for manouevre... ... for now.
What they're probably actually doing is fending off regular phone calls from their bank manager asking for their money back in the hope the market will recover before they have to sell his parcels of land to pay off the bank who have always been understanding about cashflow problems, but now...

That's certainly how it's working for the big boys at the moment who are desperately trying to raise cash through rights issues or trying to get their banking covenants waived as they keep busting them. A whole wave of mergers/takeovers to come as the industry begins it's long overdue consolidation
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Old Mar 2, 2009 | 02:04 PM
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it would be interesting to see comparative graphs showing the drop in value of new builds versus property built longer than say 25 years ago.

I wouldn’t want to prejudge it but I would strongly suspect a greater fall in new builds

Obviously the “new build” factor is just one of many that effect the price etc
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Old Mar 2, 2009 | 02:30 PM
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On another note ,mortgage approvals have stopped dipping .Last 6 months have seen consistent numbers ,with no falls (albeit half what it used to be ).Some are saying it has reached its bottom and an increase in approvals is around the corner .
Approvals = buyers=sellers=market movement=end to house price drops ???????????


Food for thought bargain hunters !!!!!!!!!!
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Old Mar 2, 2009 | 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted by njkmrs
On another note ,mortgage approvals have stopped dipping .Last 6 months have seen consistent numbers ,with no falls (albeit half what it used to be ).Some are saying it has reached its bottom and an increase in approvals is around the corner .
Approvals = buyers=sellers=market movement=end to house price drops ???????????


Food for thought bargain hunters !!!!!!!!!!
Food? More like mouldy leftovers.

Some gullible fools are snapping up what they think are bargains. Why do they think this way? It's because they think that 2007 was the norm for house values, and believe they are now getting a bargain.

Another 18 months of continuous drops will see them right.
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Old Mar 2, 2009 | 06:08 PM
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Originally Posted by SunnySideUp
The FSA are about to step in and limit Mortgage Borrowing Multiples and LTV's. This will limit any price rises and will certainly see the average house price drop to 3.5X the average wage ........ which is quite a long way down from where we are now.

"The FSA has over the last few days stepped into the limelight with regards to the future regulation of the UK mortgage industry. It seems inevitable that we will see a tightening of the regulatory framework which covers the mortgage industry and far stricter rules on the types and size of mortgages and loans which can be provided"

Source:- Mortgages News - FSA set to tighten UK mortgage lending rules

Reading that the FSA seem to be well off the pace! They mention a 15% deposit but the reality is that most lenders are asking for 20%, some as much as 40%. That in turn is pricing first time buyers, such as myself, out of the market which means house prices will continue to fall for the time being.
What really annoys me is that this government is bending overbackwards to help people with problems paying their mortgage despite the fact a large number of them borrowed too much in the first place and payed naff all deposit. People such as me and the girlfriend who tried to do "the right thing" and save a 10% deposit are now being shafted twice as we need at least double the deposit we've saved and we're getting sod all interest on the money we've got saved.
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Old Mar 2, 2009 | 06:12 PM
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Originally Posted by stuart n
Reading that the FSA seem to be well off the pace! They mention a 15% deposit but the reality is that most lenders are asking for 20%, some as much as 40%. That in turn is pricing first time buyers, such as myself, out of the market which means house prices will continue to fall for the time being.
What really annoys me is that this government is bending overbackwards to help people with problems paying their mortgage despite the fact a large number of them borrowed too much in the first place and payed naff all deposit. People such as me and the girlfriend who tried to do "the right thing" and save a 10% deposit are now being shafted twice as we need at least double the deposit we've saved and we're getting sod all interest on the money we've got saved.
Yep.
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Old Mar 2, 2009 | 08:42 PM
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Just been down o the South Coast to view some properties - all gone under offer!

The South Coast property under £250k are now selling - for what remains to be seen in the Land Registry figures ..... is this the normal Spring upturn or are we seeing a revival?

I have no idea - but the buyers are all cash buyers at the moment, no mortgage to find but their money no earning anything in the bank!

Could be a blip, but I'm not too sure .... credit is easing and property is selling - we could be months away from a price rise!
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Old Mar 3, 2009 | 07:36 AM
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we had a unsolicited call from Foxtons (Notting Hill Gate) on the phone desperate for us to re-market our house as they have lots buyers and no stock

said they would market it had what it was on for last year!!!!

but as ssup said, mostly cash buyers
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Old Mar 5, 2009 | 12:14 PM
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Accoring to the Halifax, house prices fell 2.3% last month or £3700 if you live in an average house.

Annualised that's 27.6%

BBC NEWS | Business | House prices 'dip a further 2.3%'

Looks like the often quoted EA " recovery " is over folks.
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Old Mar 5, 2009 | 01:32 PM
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Halifax reported an Increase in January ...... most thought it was a blip, which it proves to have been.

Great news .... I am praying that the sales now are just a wave of usual spring buyers and bargain hunters who have jumped too early!
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Old Mar 5, 2009 | 01:37 PM
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It's all about multiples Pete, 3.5x salary is the norm, that's where we're heading. We've had 190% HPI over the last 10 years. That's madness. People will go on about IR being 0.5%, and that it's different this time. Well this time next year those IR figures will be a distant memory.

QE started today, an extra £75 billion put into the economy. You can't just wish that figure away, it will casue inflation. If we're lucky we will get high inflation, if those in power have got their sums wrong, hyperinflation is on it's way.

Last edited by FlightMan; Mar 5, 2009 at 01:40 PM. Reason: Typo's
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Old Mar 15, 2009 | 08:11 PM
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Well, the GURU says we are now bouncing along the bottom, my experience is that we are too - at present.

"Tony Pidgley, the great sage of the housebuilding industry, has called the bottom of the market.

Mr Pidgley, who made a fortune and his reputation for calling the 1990s housing crash correctly, told The Independent on Sunday: "We all accept that, give or take 5 per cent, the market is somewhere along the bottom."

Housebuilding guru says bottom of the property market has been reached - Business News, Business - The Independent
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Old Mar 15, 2009 | 09:36 PM
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I said ages ago we were at the bottom. I think we will stay like this for a few more months as well. End of this year begining of next before we start to see proper signs of recovery
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