Deep Singh

Telboy, has hit the nail on the head. Financial advisors (I appreciate there are different types) are not the same as economic advisors and even economic advisors get it wrong as often as right.
When it comes to macro economics inc house prices sometimes just having your ear to the street and some common sense is better

fast bloke

I have stated an opinion. It is merely an opinion. DS started out with the "some sort of financial advisor" crap. I pointed out that I have training, knowledge and experience which allows me to construct a reasoned view on the future direction. If I even thought for 1 second that my opinion was going to become fact, do you not think that I would be working on some knowledge, training and experience of the lottery instead? There are loads of posts on this thread spouting complete and utter sh1te by people who have no idea how the whole thing works. I would class DS, John Banks and Telboy as probably three of the most financially astute people I have come across, either on the web or in person. That doesn't mean that I can't have my own opinion, and that I have to agree with them. Anything I have posted, I have backed up the reasons behind why I hold such an opinion. Have you noticed me posting that I can't be arsed explaining my view or that I have personal experience that would rather not discuss?



As I've already posted - this is all conjecture. If I didn't think I was right I wouldn't post it, but i accept that i could be entirely wrong. That is why I offered DS a bet on who was right come 2010




p.s. - Telboy - you know I am smarter than you, so fek off with your big words that I have to look up

p.p.p.p.p.p.p.s Rossyboy - do you not have surveyors either?

rossyboy

iTrader: (8)

Yup we have those and they are used by the buyers to get the actual valuation report prior to concluding the deal.

Solicitor has access to all sold prices, so can give a verbal valuation to sellers and advice on the price to advertise the property at. The valuation is free as you dont then have to commit to sell.

Its like Estate Agents have merged with solicitors really.

Father Pierre, I may have over-reacted to your comments, but to be fair both yourself and Fast bloke were making me out to be stupid, without realising that things are done differently up here

Deep Singh

Ok, lets set up the bet then. What measure of house prices do you want to use?

ps how much does a case of that wine cost then?

fast bloke

Look at about 100 sheets a bottle for some decent stuff... measure of house prices -Dunno - can I suggest the Fast Bloke index ..... what we probably want is the media feeling index, but I think we can leave it up to Scoobynet to declare a winner.


What I don't get is that you implied that I had no idea what I was talking about and that I was giving clients crap advice, which seemed to fine to the Scoobynet massive, but when I asked what background you used to form an opinion, people started calling me arrogant. I don't think that your opinion is any better or worse than mine. At the end of the day it is an opinion. I think it might rain tomorrow because i want to have a BBQ. That doesn't mean that it will rain, or that i want it to rain.... it merely means that in my experience, it rains when I want to have a BBQ. When you want to make a forecast, you are trying to predict the future. If you can do it accurately then you will get very rich very quickly. If you can make a forecast and back it up with sensible reasoning then you should maintain credibility. If you make a forecast and then decline to discuss why you hold that view, then i don't personally believe that your forecast should hold any credibility at all

Rossyboy - Solicitors do not do valuations. They may have access to information which will allow them to offer guidance, but i have access to the same information, and i don't offer either valuations or guidance. And yes - as part of the drudgery of getting a license to give mortgage advice I have to be competent in Scots law and the sale purchase process

john banks

Surely you guys already have effective positions on this depending on what property you own? If you want to adjust it without property transactions, how about:

IG Index - House Prices

What they don't mention is that you'll undoubtedly pay interest on the effective value of your open position, and that the spreads are not very tight for this sort of product. I don't have an account with IG, but when I last heard the numbers they were pricing in significant ongoing falls, so if you wanted to go long on the index you could do really well if you get it right. If you got it wrong though you'd have your losses on the bet plus any losses on property you own. If I owned property now I'd be looking into whether hedging part of the possible drop was worthwhile.

I have previously calculated that if I owned the sort of house I presently rent given the losses in the last quarter even in Scotland then I would be working for nothing when you add up the loss in value and the difference between rent and interest on the value. It depends if this trend continues...

Different opinions make a market though

fast bloke, the numbers and press are suggesting the NI market has turned horribly, is this your experience on the ground?

rossyboy

iTrader: (8)

The fact remains that my solicitor gave a valuation/price guide in his opinion, using the most up to date market information available. That valuation was then used as a guide on the price to advertise at.

If I had instructed a surveyor to value my flat it would have cost me at least £130, with the outcome unlikely to be much different. Nobody in their right mind up here would get the property surveyed before selling it, when you can get a solicitor round for nothing.

Dont estate agents more or less provide valuations in their opinion by advising on prices to advertise properties at?

fast bloke

In 2003 we had the lowest house prices in the UK. By March 2007 we were second only to London. We were seeing an increase of about 10% a month between January 2006 and March 2007. I am the eternal optimist, but even I had to agree that someone was going to get burned. I would say we are probably down 30% on March 2007 prices, or about level with December 2006 at the minute. There is probably another 30% to go over here to keep it real, but that doesn't bring prices below the levels of July 2006

Deep Singh

But its ok because they'll be 15% higher than the 2007 peak by 2011. Buy buy buy!!!!!!!

lozgti

Big question.

If the mindset of the country is currently.... 'that house worth £250,000 will be worth £200,000 in a few months'

How are they going to change that attitude? Until it does,no one will buy will they,shortage of mortgages or not

richardg

at some point supply will dictate that values will need to increase, which in turn will increase peoples' expectations on prices for their own properties as and when they trade up.

with the number of developers who have ceased work on new sites due to lower demand, it will be the restricted supply of new property which will influence the market. we've seen it happen before and we should expect to see it happen again IMHO

fast bloke

Nail, head, very large hammer. The only real question is how long it will take. This one is a bit optimistic, but the theory is the same

House prices to rise 25% in five years, says National Housing Federation | This is Money

john banks

The same group were predicting 50% rise in 5 years not so long ago.

I think it will take a long time for genuine supply shortages with immigrants leaving, credit according to some to be tight to 2011 and house prices still well above the long term trend compared with incomes and rents.

In previous cycles, house prices have undershot the long term trends, and the present rate of drops looks like crash material rather than soft landing to me. Some are even now talking about 50% drops from peak.

I fully expect a 25% rise in five years, but not in the next five years, that's why I'm not buying yet. Also consider that a 25% rise in 5 years is just less than the present RPI.

Petem95

Disagree - the talk of a shortage is rubbish IMO - it's just it's the only thing left that people with a vested interest in house prices staying high have left, as they can't use the old "strong economic fundamentals" or "interest rates wont top 5% for a decade" etc anymore!

With the economy going down the pan, all these economic immigrants are now returning home (as has been well documented in the papers) and of course this is freeing up more homes.

Just look at Japan - they have been through this before and had a massive house price crash with prices falling up to 90%, yet they are one of the most crowed islands in the world and have a strong economy...

When even most of the vested interests (Nationwide, Halifax etc) are now even predicting big falls in prices you know this crash is going to be a biggie

I would tend to agree with Standard & Poor who today said prices look set to fall ANOTHER 17% by next April and will be down a further 35% by 2010.

Housing slump could trap 1.7 million homeowners in negative equity, says top finance forecaster | Mail Online

They have a vested interest in making accurate predictions, unlike that 'housing association' (who clearly want to talk up the market for their own gain) who released the comedy report predicting a 25% rise by next summer or whatever it was

paulg1979

iTrader: (1)

If you're not moving then this is all irrelevant. Just feel sorry for people who can't afford mortgage repayments and need to move out.

I'm in the process of moving into into a new build house next month but luckily I did the deal a few months back so got good money for my place.

Gilesdwrc

Yay! Another damn scoobynet house price disscussion, but this time I can throw in this snippet;

Highgrove Homes - Vale - Home Page

Just for giggles me and the missus went for a look, one plot on at 157k, "special offer this weekend only offers around 140k". Looked around and in order to get out, when pestered by the agent offered 125k, THEY SAID YES!!

That's a 32k drop without negotiation. no banter, no haggle , I offered, one phone call, they said yes.

Petem95

Does that not set alarm bells ringing?....

richardg

pete - note i said "at some point". there is clearly no risk of a shortage in the short term, and there would appear if anything to be an over-supply. however, we are an increasing population on the whole (birth rate higher than death rate, divorce, etc etc even ignoring immigration), so at some point demand will increase and at some point the demand/supply balance will be tipped in the opposite direction.

supply does not always refer simply to the number of units available. people's expectations are higher than they would have been say 20 yrs ago, so there will be a certain level of supply currently available which nobody will be interested in except as a last resort.

there are other factors of course - as/if values fall further, demand is likely to increase as people see they will get more for their money. at some point, supply is then affected....

btw, housing associations are likely to be better off with a lower market as thery will getr more for their money....and ther 25% rise referred to 5 yrs' time, not next summer

Gav

Should have offered 100k

lozgti

Oh gawd.Demand and supply....

If people can't afford it they will never be able to buy it no matter how much demand there is for it!!

fast bloke

free blinkers for everyone who can't afford the house they want........

Petem95

That is clear to everyone, but FastBloke is having some trouble grasping this concept

fast bloke

Pete - You seem to be indicating that house prices will never recover for the rest of eternity?

richardg

and large red "panic button"

fast bloke

I've noticed that it is hard to post correctly after a few mushrooms, but i didn't know that dropping an E would hinder your posting skills. Are you sure you want to admit dropping E's on a public forum anyway?

richardg

sneak into a gcse economics lesson. you will probably learn that demand and supply react to each other. if there's lots of demand but no supply, only those who can afford will buy (as you have said, but it doesn't stop there!). this will bring the value (not the cost, the value) of land down and those who think ahead will build smaller units to make them affordable in order to justify paying stupid money for land (which your gcse economics teacher will tell you is called "improving efficiency"...ie cramming more units into the same amount of space).

5mins later everyone will complain that new houses are too small and too expensive and then they will all jump on the band wagon and ask silly money for their own properties.

richardg

i had 'shrooms for breakfast

fast bloke

House prices may rise 30% - Centre for Economics and Business Research | This is Money - So it isn't just NHF and me then

p.s. - Pete - I see you haven't managed to tell us if you think house prices will NEVER recover?

lozgti

I wouldn't worry too much about what the kids are being taught.Even the big boys seem to have a blinding disregard for common sense.Learned Professors of Economics or not.

As for the rise,it would just bring us back to the values that houses were previously.

Only IMHO,house prices went almost through the roof,wages haven't.That problem was solved previously by naughty lending.

Everyone has now been caught out and prices are going to have to come down to tie in with wages and what people can afford to borrow from lenders.

Sadly,3x £25,000 still won't get you more than a shed

Jay m A

iTrader: (2)

Looks like NR have got their results in early - no surprise there then

BBC NEWS | Business | Northern Rock makes a £585m loss