dpb

Still fantasizing

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

We could, of course. Wouldn't make the difference the remoaners think,of course.

But in the end, Merkel et al will cave when Bosch, VAG, BMW, Mercedes etc put on the pressure.

Trust me, I was right about Brexit, I'm right about this.

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Never mind old lad, you'll come good eventually

Martin2005

I was right about Brexit too.


And I think the WTO option would be completely bonkers.


All those German companies you mentioned will still sell their goods in the UK whether we get a deal or not. They make world class products that consumers want. They'll just be more expensive.

BMWhere?

This may well be the final nail in the (hard) Brexit coffin!

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40264755

Either we continue on the Brexit path and almost certainly lose the most significant part of the British economy, or quit the whole stupid idea and stay in the club!

Anyone who thinks the other EU members wouldn't like to take a big part of the financial services pie away from London is living in a dream-world! As soon as we leave and no longer have voting/veto rights in the EU, they will introduce all the financial services regulations that the UK has been blocking for years, essentially giving the banks little choice but to move their operations out of London and into other EU countries!

Without the banking sector, the UK pretty much has nothing as we've almost no manufacturing industry left and what there is is mostly foreign owned and also in risk of upping sticks!

Martin2005

UK = world's 7th biggest manfacturing output.

BMWhere?

There or there abouts in terms of value of manufacturing output, but when you consider it as a % of GDP or value per capita which are much more relevant figures, then we're way down the list! UK manufacturing output accounts for about 10% of GDP, while in Germany its 22%!

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

More scaremongering.
WHEN are you remoaners going to accept that it's going ahead?
Even the majority of the politicians have accepted it.

markjmd

iTrader: (11)

Or maybe not, lol. There's still plenty of time for us to change our minds, apparently

BMWhere?

Thankfully a long time after the Brexiteers realise what a f**kup it all is and change their minds!

Seriously though, the Brexit brigade were never going to give up the fight if they lost the referendum. Farage stated, when he thought he was going to lose, if the result was close he would be fighting for a second referendum - and so he should too - if you believe in something strongly enough you should battle until the very end!

Why the Brexiteers think those who believe leaving the EU to be a very bad idea, are just going to roll over and accept it after an extremely close referendum result are just delusional!

We've not left the EU yet, we still believe it's a stupid idea, we're not going to give up the fight! You can call us remoaners if you think its funny, but it won't deter us!

hodgy0_2

lol

it will be like the Iraq war and 45 min claim

give it 10 to 15 years and you won't find anyone admitting to supporting it

mrtheedge2u2

If I had my way, and was at the EU table, I would be saying to the British "You want to leave? No problem. Ensure that all British nationals residing in the UK give up any second residences they own within the EU and from now on visa's are mandatory for all British nationals wanting to visit any EU country"

mrtheedge2u2

^^This

Kwik

iTrader: (10)

I think the part the remoaners are stuck on is that the majority wanted out of the CURRENT deal. Realistically, it wouldn't take a genius to renegotiate 2 deals. One if we stayed, one if we left.
It doesn't matter if John middle class Smith was happy with his BMW at the romainian car wash and the illusion of a level playing field it matters(ed) what the MAJORITY want.
Given the same deal you'd get the same answer. With a different deal you'd get a different answer.
If anything history would dictate that 'great britain' were world leaders and the likes of the French have a history of surrendering.
We're more likely to look back at Brexit as the making of the UK. And I'm not sure how those complaining about our lack of industry expect us to have one when we buy in more than we make. It's just how the next 20 or so years would be before the UK 'rose up' again. We definitely need to be more introverted, build things we'd buy before we expect to sell it to the world.

dpb

Like the French

Martin2005

Congratulations, not a single word of this makes any economic, social or even common sense.


btw - you need a history lesson

hodgy0_2

a sobering thought is that Belgium exports the same amount as we do to India

along with a few other EU countries who export way more obviously

BMWhere?

I think you'll find, the post the remoaners are stuck on, is it's a ****ing stupid idea to leave the EU!

We're the 5th largest economy in the world! Not bad for a little island that much of the world actually really dislike thanks to our Imperial past! We're punching well above our weight in the modern world and the EU has helped us get there! In exactly which alternative universe will leaving the EU help us somehow improve on this situation? Realistically, there is no way up from where we're at, maybe we could be 4th but that's not a big step. Staying in the EU, would almost certainly mean the status quo, leaving with a soft Brexit deal can maybe also keep us in the G7, but leaving without full access to the customs union or even worse WTO rules can only go downwards and it will take generations to climb back up if we even can!

I accept we voted to leave the EU, I don't accept it's a good idea!

​​​​

john banks

What puzzles me is that the WTO tariffs don't seem too bad as a percentage, are a tax that the government collect anyway and from the balance of trade and the classes of tariffs would almost be advantageous to the UK vs the EU. Why not drop VAT to 10% as about two thirds of it is lost in collection and churn anyway? Some say that the delays and regulations are more of an issue than the actual tariffs.

hodgy0_2

Tariffs are a red herring, simply a @ % formula on a spreadsheet - easy in reality

and simply a legacy of trade as it was done in the 19th century

the biggest barriers to trade in the 21st century are NTB (Non Tariff Barriers)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-ta...riers_to_trade

and anyway a large % our trade is in services which do not attract tariffs - it is about NTB / MRA / regulatory compliance etc

but this is all old hat - done and dusted last year

interesting times ahead

john banks

Thanks.

BMWhere?

About 80% of our GDP is from the services industry, including financial services. Approx 10% is manufacturing. Services are regulated differently to manufactured goods and I'm many cases, under WTO rules, there will be no provisions for the various service sectors.

No deal is better than a bad deal may make a good soundbite, but in real terms, no deal, i.e. WTO rules, is not an option, that's why the conservatives have never even bothered to cost it!

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Why? What would be the point except spite? You are advocating doing exactly what BOTH sides agreed NOT to do: bargain with people.

And since 90+% of homes owned by foreign nationals in France at least, are renovations, which the French do NOT want, again, what would be the point?
Add to that, the vast majority of folk owning houses in France are retired, so simply bringing money into the area/France.
Let's send them all home? Crazy.

dpb

They *could* very well push up taxes for uk owners quite significantly ...

second homes must also push up house prices generally for the French youth getting on the ladder

BMWhere?

pensioners are the last people they want! They put the highest demands on the health system, yet don't work and don't pay taxes! Bringing money into the area is also pushing it a bit - sure they buy a property, but most of the money will go to the previous owner who will no doubt invest it which only benefits himself and the bankers. Renovations will contribute more assuming they use local companies, but that is also very limited. Pensioners are also not exactly famed for being flamboyant with their spending; a few bottles of wine and a baguette is hardly going to save the local economy! Countries don't want old people to move there, they want young people, who also buy and renovate houses, but more importantly work and pay taxes! Funnily enough, the kind of EU immigrants that were coming to the UK!

ditchmyster

iTrader: (7)

Not really... for once I agree with jeff ... people like us bring new money and life to the areas we buy houses in, I've brought an old house that nobody wanted back to life, pumped at least £10k + per year into the local economy as well as the original purchase price + taxes etc which is over £150k in the 12yrs since we bought the house... that's money that would never have come into the fray and a house that would have by now just been a pile of stones like so many others around here.

Much like the UK there's not much work out here in the sticks... so young people move to the cities... something which has been going on for decades out here in Croatia.

There are 8 million Croats but only 4 million live in Croatia, probably less by now since joining the EU many more have left for Italy, Germany, Austria and Ireland.

In conclusion people like myself and Jeff help to prop areas like this up and help keep the local economies moving, we're not a burden and I've cretainly not taken a home away from a Croatian family, I've given many Croatians money that they otherwise would not have had.

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Nope, not without a change in the law.

I'm sorry, but you are basing that on the UK, I think?

The sort of houses bought as doer-uppers by immigrants to France, be they German, Dutch, English or whatever, are NOT the houses wanted by the French, young or old.

If we didn't buy them, then there would be three immediate knock-on effects:
1. A glut of old derelict building attracting no taxation and quietly falling into disrepair.
2. Lots of folk who have inherited these properties and sold them on, would have been out of pocket. The money paid to them goes straight back into the French economy.
3. Local businesses going bust. Yes, seriously: the local builders, sparkies, plumbers, zingueurs, woodyards, reclamation yards etc would have little or no work. Trust me. I talk to these guys. Without the immigrants doing up houses, no work, equals no business.

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Nonsense. We don't put any more demands on the health system than any other group, and we pay into the UK system, or pay here, via insurance.

More nonsense. I pay local taxes..quite a bit actually. I also pay VAT on everything I buy, and when I live here, ALL my income is spent here.

Yes, I paid a large sum to the vendor, he bought a new car, (A Citroen), and I have also enriched two different builders to replace a roof and lay me a concrete floor.
See my post above about renovations: why do you think the French government is STILL defying the EU in placing a lower level of VAT onto renovation work and materials provided a local person is employed? Many local businesses would go bust without the migrants employing them. I talk to them.

Yeah, yeah, we want LOADS more Po's in the UK who RENT houses twelve to a house, wreck it and b*gger off.
No renovation there and little in taxes or anything else to the UK economy.

And yes, I've seen that too...I worked as a census taker in 2011, saw them living in shifts, sleeping in shifts....

So not those kind of immigrants after all, then?

dpb

Both my mother and sister live in France now.

Apparently the locals are now more into doing up their old building themselves

As well as shoving up a new bungaloo

Kwik

iTrader: (10)

What relevance does where the UK is in the worlds list of economies to the ordinary working man who lives hand to mouth?. Are you aware of average debt people have?.

Ive said it before. I live in an area of industry, where house prices are simply out of reach to the ordinary family. Most people have no choice but to rent and I can second that EU migrants live 8 or 10 to a house and pay £1500pm rent as to 3 or 4 couples that isn't much.

The worst case scenario is that the uk plunges into recession. EU migrants leave, second home owners are forced to sell to a smaller economy for a reduced price and eventually ordinary people can afford to buy.

The status quo to the majority was a worse scenario than the risk.