"Brexidiots" Oh the wit - it's like being back in school! You really are a complete clown, and an exceptionally bitter one at that!

How about you emigrate?! Get out of the UK and bitch and moan somewhere else!

 

lol, you always say this, but can never point to any evidence, - am an not bitter but I am laughing at you Brexit thickies - and all the total bollox you spouted during the referendum campaign

all the "cake and eat it" crap - that BMW and Tonto would come riding over the hill to give us the same deal, that Italy, then Austria, then the Netherlands then France would all vote in anti EU parties and join us - to leave the EU

this is a good summary

http://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-...cceed-11015205


"It was the rhetoric of the Leave campaign throughout the referendum that there would be little to no cost as a result of the UK leaving the European Union. They argued that the EU would give the UK a trade deal equal to that which we enjoy now with full access to the single market and no customs checks at the border because it would be in the EU's interest to do so. This could all be done without freedom of movement and with minimal contributions to the EU budget (if any).

I'm afraid much of this was total nonsense. And Mrs May regurgitated it ad nauseam from the day she became prime minister."



and yes I have dual Kiwi citizenship so could easily go to Australia or New Zealand, but I have a fantastic life here in the UK

 

Well that's great that you enjoy living in the UK, and hopefully that will continue to be the case. You put forward some good arguments sometimes, but juvenile sounding quips like 'brexit thickies' don't add weight to your opinions!

The EU is hardly the harmonious dreamland you like to make out either. As I've mentioned before the single currency simply cannot continue in current form, as it's far too strong for Southern economies which have see very little economic growth since 2000, huge unemployment rates, especially amongst the youth, crippling debt levels and increases in poverty. On the flip side Germany has done well as it's exports are in the region of 15% cheaper than they would be if they still had the Deutschmark as they get to use a currency which is weaker. This imbalance simply cannot continue.

You've then got the ECB's QE programme which is now the biggest in the world, with 60bn euros of debt being bought each month. The ECB now holds the biggest balance sheet of any central bank in the world (or in history) at approx $4.7tln. This is insane. And this itself is leading to two big issues. Firstly, they're running out of bonds to buy (and will do so in 2018), and secondly if they wind it down and stop buying Italian debt etc then these countries will see the costs of financing they debt skyrocket as the ECB buy the debt at rates that are a fraction of what they'd have to charge on the open market. So they're in a pickle here.

To add to this you've got the Euro currency strengthening which is the absolute last thing they need. This could start to hit Germany in the coming months unless it weakens as exports will become less competitive. Another issue the Eurozone has is generating inflation, and a stronger currency will result in cheaper imports, and hence lowering inflation. If you get very low inflation or deflation this hits GDP as consumer spending wanes.

Then there's also infighting between member states. Poland, Hungary and CZ currently being sued by the EU because they're refusing to accept migrants. Regards the migrant crisis itself, the EU seem to have no ideas how to deal with this so it's just ongoing.

Marcon (who lets not forget sided with Greece when they wanted to default on their debts, but the EU overturned their democratic vote because it didn't go the way they wanted) is now ruffling a few feathers by saying their should be restrictions on workers from poorer EU countries coming to work in richer ones.

It's just a huge unsustainable mess. Regards brexit negotiations - nothing meaningful will happen as proper negotiation involving Juncker et al is not possible. It's just be limbo until the 11th hour when Germany step in to ensure a trade deal is made as they obviously don't want to lose an important export market.

 

Duplicate

 

Yeah we know the 'euro is going to collapse', you said that 10 years ago, you were wrong then and you're wrong now. It won't collapse because the forces holding it together are way stronger than those pulling it apart.

Under what circumstances are Germany going to 'lose an important export market'? You are being willfully daft here. Whatever happens the UK's market is not going to close to goods from the EU. You demonstrate a fairly flimsy understanding of this issue.

Oh and when it comes to being juvenile, have a look back at some of your posts.

 

You're not really offering anything here, just essentially saying you disagree without reason.

 

Stop this thread.

What has been done will not be undone

For God's sake stop this thread

 

You're only seeing the Euro currency from the perspective of the UK and not from the perspective of the countries using it. You say the Southern countries are suffering from the high value of the Euro without really considering their economies and the impact of the high currency on them if there even is an impact!

One of the great benefits of the Euro zone is many countries using the same currency. If much of your import/export/investment is with other Euro countries, then there is no currency exchange and therefore the value of the currency is less relevant.

Consider Spain and Greece for example. The majority of their economy is tourism based. Much of the tourism is from other EU countries, so travel to from those countries and the amount they spend is not a factor of the exchange rate, but more on the the state of visitors economies e.g. economic problems in Germany may mean less tourists in Spain and therefore economic problems in Spain.

The other significant economic sectors in Spain and Greece are farming (producing Oranges, olives, wine etc.), much of which is consumed locally or exported to other EU countries, so again, not really subject to currency fluctuations.

Sure, you could argue that Spain is dependent on the UK too, and the currency does have an effect, but Brits still want to holiday in the Sun and they don't have much choice other than to go to Euro countries without having to travel much further and pay even more. Similarly, if we want Oranges or Olives, we have to import them and we have to bear the cost of the exchange rate. It might mean a drop in demand, but as the Euro zone is a bigger overall market for Spain and Greece, they're happy to stick with it.

You can gauge the importance of the Euro currency to Southern economies by considering the crisis in Greece. They could have just dropped out of the Euro zone, taken control of their currency and lived happily ever after. In actual fact, they were closer to being kicked out of the Euro zone than choosing to leave themselves. They had to fight tooth and nail to stay in the Euro but they did so because they know they're better off in the Euro zone than out of it!

And that is why the Euro will not fail! It's too important to too many countries that they won't let it fail! Its hard for the UK to see it because we're outside of it, but those in the Euro zone see the benefits and are not willing to give it up! It brings so much stability to the member countries and significantly reduces costs to consumers.

The same is true for the EU itself. Nobody ever argued it was perfect and it certainly needs reform and with the Brexit vote, it seems to be seriously starting the reform process. But like the Euro, the EU is too important to fail. Yes there are some problems with the Eastern block countries currently, but its the EU that has a problem with them, none of them want to leave the EU as they are all net benefactors.

In the end, as much as nobody wants to punish the UK for its choice to leave, protecting the EU for the future is more important than giving the UK a great deal. The UK is certainly valuable to the EU, but not at any cost. If the EU gives the UK a great deal, then many other countries will say "we want that too" and the EU is likely to fall apart - From the EU perspective, that cannot happen, so if it means BMW sell a few less cars, or Spain has to go fishing somewhere else, so be it!

As for the UK walking away with no deal, that's just plain pigheadedness and cutting your nose off to spite your face. Sure you can threaten it as a negotiating tactic, but to do it would be pure stupidity! You also have to consider it from the EU perspective - for them, no deal with the UK is better than a bad deal which could break the EU - Its not the best option, but at least it's an option the EU could live better with than the UK!

 

The serious brexiteer voted out to see the EU fall apart , nothing more nothing less would be a failure

 

Has I mentioned earlier, my involvement with a manufacturing company, they have seen significant growth of sales from the European countries and across the world recently. This is confirmed by articles gathering data from others backing up my comments


​​​​​​https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/05/factory-and-retail-sales-climb-despite-fears-of-brexit-slump

The apparently dire prediction of a sudden crash were unfounded. The re alignment of the UK pound has been of great benefit to those who generate wealth and GDP for the UK

 

In your not-so-humble opinion.

But patently false.

 

The sudden crash was avoided by the government ploughing in billions of £'s into the bank of England to stem the freefall on the stock-market! How quickly we forget!

Whilst exports have done well thanks to the lower £, overall growth is down (while the Euro zone is increasing) and inflation is continuing to rise and outpace wage growth, which in turn will hit retail figures, in particular for imports which are getting more expensive. The continued wage growth as a result of inflation will also drive up domestic prices and slow export growth.

Things are really not looking very rosy!

 

But how isn't this going to be negated if ( when ) EU countries levy taxes etc on your goods sold to them

 

Excellent post, sir.

 

There is going to be a FTA or WTO. If WTO, the EU has to submit what tariffs they are going to impose on the UK goods and the UK will do the same,. There has to be a fair non discriminatory arrangement between the parties, the EU can't decide to have punitive tariffs on the UK only. WTO have very low tariffs for many common products.

 

Its true that they can't impose additional tariffs on the UK than they do at the base WTO rate for that country, and yes, some rates are quite low. But a low tariff is still higher than no tariff!

Tariffs on services are also very high and in some sectors, totally restricted, so given our economy is nearly 80% services based, the services sector is going to be hit hard. Given that the majority of our services are in the banking sector which is very tightly regulated, we're going to be hit even harder!

Then there is the whole customs issues. If we leave the customs union, which is looking almost certain, everything that is imported or exported from the EU is now going to have to go through customs checks on both sides of the channel, even with an FTA! That means we need to plough more money into our ports - we need additional space to store everything awaiting customs, we need more people to process everything. Then any companies importing or exporting will also need to fill out all the paperwork, customs declarations and tax/tariff calculations and all that extra red tape will means companies need to take on more staff too All of that adds costs to the customer and makes everything more expensive.

Then there is all your online shopping. Amazon has its main distribution centre for Europe (including the UK) in Belgium. Much of what you buy on Amazon.co.uk is actually shipped from abroad. Similarly, many people trading on Amazon marketplace are spread all over the EU. Many other companies operate their European distribution out of Belgium, Luxembourg and Ireland because they save on taxes. So when you shop online and its sent from an EU country - maybe without you even realising like you get now when that cheap USB cable you order is shipped out of Hong-Kong - its going to spend weeks going through customs and will be delivered with a nice tax bill.

There will also be no more filling your suitcase with cheap cigarettes or booze from when you're on holiday in Spain. Filling your boot with French wine after trip to your French Vila is going to cost you big time! You may even find yourself breaking the law taking some bacon and eggs with you for the camping at Le Mans. These are the realities for YOU personally of leaving the customs union - with or without an FTA!

 

I agree things will change, the UK voted to leave the EU, nothing insurmountable.

 

Of course it is all possible, but at what cost?

People voted to leave the EU without be told or understanding the true costs and implications! Nobody was told what the leaving the EU really meant with lots of conflicting arguments offered in favour of leaving that cannot all be realised. Leaving the EU is a very vague term which could mean many different things - Norway is not in the EU but it is in the customs union! So does leaving the EU mean leaving the customs union? The only way to really leave the EU and all of its influences is a complete separation with no agreements which would be total suicide! If that had been offered as the alternative to remaining in the EU, then there is no way 52% the people would have voted for it!

 

Ah the Norway option
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-a7800256.html


take back control lol

 

Oh good GOD!

How on EARTH did we all survive before the EU????????

Stop whining, man. It was fine then, it'll be better soon.

 

Yes, because things were so great before we joined the EU!
Everything was better in the past as I look through my rose tinted glasses!

http://voxeu.org/article/britain-s-e...onomic-history

Note: the above paper was written before the 2015 election which lead to the Brexit vote - Although I guess you probably won't read it

 

Leaving the EU is leaving everything. Costs will be involved and borne by everyone, has the majority voted to leave. The vast majority of the voting public have accepted and want to get on with it.

 

The vast majority want us to leave , everything ?

 

You assume to know how the majority of the voting public feel? That's very arrogant of you!

So, do they all willingly accept it or reluctantly accept it? Do they all really want to leave everything or would many of them prefer to stay in the customs union? If they had the change to vote again, would they all now vote to leave? Has anyone actually asked them what sort of Brexit they want?

If you're so confident about how the vast majority feel, you should be more than willing to have a final referendum on the Brexit deal! Are you that confident?

 

I doubt there will be another referendum. I don't have to be confident, I can't influence another referendum. My choice was made last June and I live with the consequences, long term it will be fantastic.

 

So you admit that your previous statement is not true! You have no idea what the vast majority want, but as long as you get your way then f*** everyone else! Very democratic!

The public have never been asked what they want for post brexit while a weak government who bought their majority from the DUP with public money plough on in secrecy on an adjenda that nobody has voted for!

As for the long term being fantastic! Not if I have to give up my British passport to continue living in Germany as non EU members are not allowed dual nationality. It won't be fantastic for anyone who had been hoping to retire to warmer climates in Spain or maybe a nice French villa! It won't be fantastic for all the young people who will no longer be able to take Erasmus places and enjoy studying abroad. If won't be fantastic to the farmers that go out of business because they no longer get EU subsidies and can't find any seasonal workers. It won't be fantastic for all the people who loose their jobs and maybe their homes as the multi-national corporations they work for decide to move their offices and factories to within the EU. It won't be fantastic to all the people who can't get the medical care they need because all the foreign doctors and nurses have left the NHS because they no longer feel welcome in the UK.

But as long as you get what you want, then thats fine!

 

. Stop wailing

 

Thats a typical Brexiteer response! You have no valid argument so you have to resort to shut up and accept it or stop whinging!

No I won't stop wailing because I don't want to see my country make the biggest mistake in its history! While some people in society may reluctantly accept Brexit, I will not!

 

The vote was a complete mess and no one knew what they were voting for or understood the complexity of unravelling 40 years of marriage. It gave the media a wonderful opportunity to stir up a xenophobic attitude. Now the reality is dawning on people and IMHO many are getting sick and tired of the whole business.


The "vast majority" are rapidly changing their minds about the whole shooting match.


David

 

Proof?

Or just more remoan wishful thinking?