So Brexit seems to be a good thing then.
25 November 2016, 12:02 PM
#511
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 48,539
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
'There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.'
There we are; Donald Rumsfeld's slightly convoluted explanation of why statistics and data and predictions based on them so often go astray.
There we are; Donald Rumsfeld's slightly convoluted explanation of why statistics and data and predictions based on them so often go astray.
Even then, one finds one source most accurate than other/other sources, yes?
Which one is more accurate for Trooper, is the question.
25 November 2016, 12:18 PM
#512
Rumsfeld is pointing out the dangers inherent in making critical decisions or assumptions based on statistics and data. The 'unknown unknowns' make predictions based on either extremely hazardous. Two recent examples of this truth are the surprising outcomes of the last General Election and Brexit. There is no guaranteed accuracy.
25 November 2016, 12:21 PM
#513
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 48,539
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Rumsfeld is pointing out the dangers inherent in making critical decisions or assumptions based on statistics and data. The 'unknown unknowns' make predictions based on either extremely hazardous. Two recent examples of this truth are the surprising outcomes of the last General Election and Brexit. There is no guaranteed accuracy.
That's why I'm asking whether a person believes at least one source to be more trustworthy then other source/s; that's regardless of any of them being accurate as 100% accurate.
Because if there is no belief in any stats or any figures given by any source whatsoever, one is simply throwing arrows in the dark; even in relation to this Brexit debate. On what basis can one say whether IN was bad and OUT is good? No basis whatsoever. That makes this whole Brexit thing for that person a mindless exercise.
Last edited by Turbohot; 25 November 2016 at 12:27 PM.
25 November 2016, 12:25 PM
#514
Hearsay from friends who actually run these businesses. Not conjecture at all, the fact is that they have noticed a sharp fall off in business immediately after the referendum. Coincidence? Maybe...but notice this isn't opinion from any media, it's straight from the horse's mouth. And our high street has been growing considerably over the last 20 years, not dying, quite the opposite in fact.
25 November 2016, 12:26 PM
#515
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Home
Posts: 14,758
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Rumsfeld is pointing out the dangers inherent in making critical decisions or assumptions based on statistics and data. The 'unknown unknowns' make predictions based on either extremely hazardous. Two recent examples of this truth are the surprising outcomes of the last General Election and Brexit. There is no guaranteed accuracy.
25 November 2016, 12:31 PM
#516
Most sources are probably biased to a degree but even the least biased source can never be 100% accurate (the unknown unknowns will always kick in), therefore decisions based on that source or series of sources can at best be descibed as informed guesswork. Of course Trump is another example where sources and predictions have seriously misfired.
25 November 2016, 12:32 PM
#517
Scooby Senior
Nobody can predict the future, so by definition all predictions are wrong. The occaissional lucky guess may in retrospect become true!
The same is true about brexit, it will never be as bad as the doom mongerers are predicting, nor will it be as great as the Brexiteers are championing. When you work out the median oppinion from accross the board, then we are worse off after Brexit!
25 November 2016, 12:37 PM
#518
Scooby Senior
Excellent post, BMWhere!
I highlighted the bits that stick out, in relation to this 'class' argument that has gone on here, but your whole post and all the posts in this thread make most sense.
Must give you a credit that this post of yours has nullified all that 'class' argument with the egotistical I-this and You-that prim and proper!
Fair do's, they did fill pages and pages and pages with some utter tedious and repetitive shyte on this thread! Waste of time for all parties involved in that nonsense 'class' argument exchange and ignoring the reality of Brexit.
Well done for putting it as straight.
I highlighted the bits that stick out, in relation to this 'class' argument that has gone on here, but your whole post and all the posts in this thread make most sense.
Must give you a credit that this post of yours has nullified all that 'class' argument with the egotistical I-this and You-that prim and proper!
Fair do's, they did fill pages and pages and pages with some utter tedious and repetitive shyte on this thread! Waste of time for all parties involved in that nonsense 'class' argument exchange and ignoring the reality of Brexit. Well done for putting it as straight.
Thankyou for taking the time to read it
This is an interesting post for all those predicting the end of the EU. Turns out public opinion may be swinging the other way accross Europe following the Brexit and Trump votes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...the-e-u-again/
Sure its just one opinion and may be complete bollocks as al other new sources, but consider the source is from outside the EU with little interest in having a pro-EU agenda!
25 November 2016, 12:42 PM
#519
A posteriori or empirical data and, by extension, maximum a posteriori (MAP) are relied upon extensively to make super accurate predictions about the world. Nobody's witnessed the 13-14 billion years of the universe's evolution (apart from Jesus) and yet we can be almost certain that the prediction is accurate. Data got us in to space and helps us build megastructures and so on.
Whilst all those statistics are true they are hardly valid when specifically referring to human-based data, where the laws of physics have little or no influence. And again I will cite the surprise outcomes of our General Election, Brexit and Trump. There are many similar examples where data has failed.
And you even managed to slot Jesus into the discussion!
25 November 2016, 12:44 PM
#520
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 48,539
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Its always important to take as broad a spread of opinions as possible including the most extreme. If you find the median point of opinion then you'll nearly always be close to reality!
Nobody can predict the future, so by definition all predictions are wrong. The occaissional lucky guess may in retrospect become true!
The same is true about brexit, it will never be as bad as the doom mongerers are predicting, nor will it be as great as the Brexiteers are championing. When you work out the median oppinion from accross the board, then we are worse off after Brexit!
Nobody can predict the future, so by definition all predictions are wrong. The occaissional lucky guess may in retrospect become true!
The same is true about brexit, it will never be as bad as the doom mongerers are predicting, nor will it be as great as the Brexiteers are championing. When you work out the median oppinion from accross the board, then we are worse off after Brexit!
25 November 2016, 01:00 PM
#521
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Home
Posts: 14,758
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Whilst all those statistics are true they are hardly valid when specifically referring to human-based data, where the laws of physics have little or no influence. And again I will cite the surprise outcomes of our General Election, Brexit and Trump. There are many similar examples where data has failed.
And you even managed to slot Jesus into the discussion!
25 November 2016, 01:15 PM
#522
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Berks
Posts: 4,224
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I think the government should take the most resposible action and do whats best for the country given there isn't a clear majority one way or another and the great regret that many brexiteers have shown post vote and that the vote is anyway non binding. Brexit means Brexit is a load of bollocks and just blindly going ahead wth it is irrisponsible. If they really look at it - cross party - and decide Brexit is really the best option, then fair enough, but they really need to consider it properly rather than just blindly following the very slighlty preferential "will of the people"!
25 November 2016, 01:27 PM
#523
Scooby Regular
iTrader: (41)
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: in the woods...........555 Wagon Sqn
Posts: 13,347
Received 55 Likes
on
42 Posts
Whilst all those statistics are true they are hardly valid when specifically referring to human-based data, where the laws of physics have little or no influence. And again I will cite the surprise outcomes of our General Election, Brexit and Trump. There are many similar examples where data has failed.
And you even managed to slot Jesus into the discussion!
And you even managed to slot Jesus into the discussion!
I think you are spot on; nowt queer as folk! Human beings are driven by such diverse motivators these kind of 'shock' results are inevitable...I'll admit to doing the opposite to what I've been told\expected to do for a big chunk of my life, for no other reason than I don't like to told what to do. Which is pretty daft as the decision didn't always work out in my favor.
25 November 2016, 01:30 PM
#524
Neither need give up but along with the recent failures of pollsters we should avoid assuming their predictions or conclusions are set in stone. There are too many assumpions based on not much and as noted earlier, this renders all predictions informed guesswork at best. British weather is a fine example where knowledge, data and science are frequently embarrassed by the unknown unknowns.
25 November 2016, 01:46 PM
#525
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Home
Posts: 14,758
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Neither need give up but along with the recent failures of pollsters we should avoid assuming their predictions or conclusions are set in stone. There are too many assumpions based on not much and as noted earlier, this renders all predictions informed guesswork at best. British weather is a fine example where knowledge, data and science are frequently embarrassed by the unknown unknowns.
25 November 2016, 02:06 PM
#526
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 48,539
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Anyway, I think Paben will believe neither you nor the Met. office. You both are unreliable. He shall believe his own instincts and decide what to do. He may stay home for a chomp and listen to the record Honkey Tonk.
25 November 2016, 02:07 PM
#527
Scooby Senior
25 November 2016, 02:07 PM
#528
I'd take a look at the forecast but whatever it said in February I would be prepared for the worst and equip accordingly. Incidentally, marines yomp, the army tabs. The difference? More or less the same except tabbing involves carrying more weight at higher speed over greater distances.
25 November 2016, 02:08 PM
#529
How many people believe the ............."insert a religious book here" and blindly follow it's teachings?
Only time will tell. If the shi* fit's you have to wear it.
25 November 2016, 02:12 PM
#531
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 48,539
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
You're an educated IN voter, come on.
Note: If 'oppinion' is some old-fashioned, pompous, biblical word, then I do apologise, and must Google it to find its meaning.
25 November 2016, 02:20 PM
#532
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Home
Posts: 14,758
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I'd take a look at the forecast but whatever it said in February I would be prepared for the worst and equip accordingly. Incidentally, marines yomp, the army tabs. The difference? More or less the same except tabbing involves carrying more weight at higher speed over greater distances.
25 November 2016, 02:23 PM
#534
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Home
Posts: 14,758
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
25 November 2016, 02:30 PM
#536
A mere soldier indeed, and one who referred to marines in a variety of ways but never Royal. And I didn't know that American was a language either. So do statistics and data suggest from my opinions that I'm an American or is it just your gut feeling based on informed guesswork?
25 November 2016, 02:31 PM
#538
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 48,539
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
25 November 2016, 02:32 PM
#539
Scooby Regular
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Home
Posts: 14,758
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A mere soldier indeed, and one who referred to marines in a variety of ways but never Royal. And I didn't know that American was a language either. So do statistics and data suggest from my opinions that I'm an American or is it just your gut feeling based on informed guesswork?
I didn't say that you were American.