BMWhere?

How many export tariffs are there? Answer, not many! So when you're talking about zero tariffs, you're talking predominantly about import tariffs. If we have zero import tariffs, then that would massively increase imports while having little impact on exports. This would mean a flood of cheap foreign products/produce to the UK market which would devastate the UK manufacturing and produce sectors.

What we would need is reciprocal trade deals that allow our manufacturers to export to other countries with minimum or zero import tariffs in those countries. They will take years to be agreed and the winner from any trade deals will generally be the larger economy.

You highlight the word "assuming", yet then counter with your own speculation of what will (could) happen and only succeed in displaying your lack of comprehension of the import/export process which in turn nullify your arguments. You merely regurgitate the standard pro-Brexit propaganda without considering the real implications and contradictions within.

hodgy0_2

Well know even the UK government have finally woken up and admitted what I posted over a year ago when I posted the EU's Notice to Stakeholders (all of them can be read here https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/bre...ss-notices_en)

but specifically the one on aviation - here https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites...ion-safety.pdf

from the Mail

"Britain draws up 27 different pacts to protect flights if there's no Brexit deal as new government papers will accept possibility UK planes WON'T be able to take off and land on the continent"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6137259/Britain-draws-27-different-pacts-protect-flights-theres-no-Brexit-deal.html

"Britain is trying to negotiate aviation deals with individual EU countries to ensure planes continue to fly in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. Transport Secretary Chris Grayling will write to his opposite numbers in the 27 member states, seeking to secure agreements."

But we can't negotiate with individual countries - this has been known for years - but Brexidiots simply can't get this simple fact

Anyway, I suspect the EU will probably do a deal - at a price, maybe UK citizens will lose any rights to compensation, who knows

but this nonsense does not just effect aviation, but road transport (HGV licences/insurance) will not be valid on the 30th of March next year, fish exports from Grimsby - they will be subject to costly and time consuming sanitary checks

well done Brexidiots

hodgy0_2

in the grande scheme of international trade tariffs are pretty irrelevant - as you say they are pretty low across the board

it is NTB's that are far more important

just look at pretty much any product in your home/office/workshop - it will have a CE mark (whether it is manufactured in Germany, Sweden, Japan, China or South Korea)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CE_marking

"CE marking is a certification mark that indicates conformity with health, safety, and environmental protection standards for products sold within the European Economic Area (EEA).[1] The CE marking is also found on products sold outside the EEA that are manufactured in, or designed to be sold in, the EEA. This makes the CE marking recognizable worldwide even to people who are not familiar with the European Economic Area. It is in that sense similar to the FCC Declaration of Conformity used on certain electronic devices sold in the United States. "

The CE mark allows it to be sold in the EU (and increasingly a world wide sign of quality) - we have a big part in defining the rules of all CE marked products, when we leave next year - every time you use a CE marked product, you are using something that the UK has had no say/control over - "take back control!!!"

unless you think manufactures are going to bother making stuff solely for the UK market

"take back control!!!"

well done Brexidiots (not you BMWhere)

BMWhere?

You forget that the only thing they're really interested in taking back control of is immigration - They wan't the immigrants only from good Muslim countries and not from those nasty Eastern European countries, because clearly we can't reduce immigration because we need them to fill the jobs because unemployment is so low. And even before Brexit they're getting their way as EU migration is falling while non-EU migration is increasing and overall migration levels are unchanged!

I doubt the average Brexiteer would complain about UK standards mirroring EU standards as long as we have control of immigration! Although there are certainly still a handful of crazies who only accept the BS Kitemark as a symbol of quality and can't wait for the return of our great Auto industry - the sale of 3 wheeled cars is going to skyrocket (whether they were designed with 3 wheels or 1 wheel just fell off is not important!)

SouthWalesSam

iTrader: (1)

And then there's stuff like cabotage.
It hasn't even been raised as an issues for consideration as yet.
Basically, if a UK haulier delivers a load of finished engine parts to Italy, he/she can stop off in Belgium on the way back and pick up a load chocolates, gearboxes, beer or whatever and land them back in the UK.
It means the haulier can earn on both legs of the round trip (important given the competitiveness of the haulage industry) and means lower costs for both customers.
It only applies to EU member states.
What's going to happen post-Brexit?
Where's your plan on cabotage, Brexiteers?
In fact, where's you plan on Brexit?

BMWhere?

Most likely, UK trucks will deposit their outbound trailers at the ports and collect an inbound trailer. The drivers on both sides of the channel will no longer cross the channel with their loads. This means that the hauliers will either need a UK and EU based company to provide a single service on both sides of the channel, or the hauliers will need to set up operating partners on the other side to plan the deliveries or the company sending the load will need to contract a haulier on both sides of the channel. Basically, the way things used to work before the common market! Whichever way they do it, there will be additional transport costs incurred.

In the UK, it could be a benefit for the haulage companies. They may lose out from European jobs, but the UK will become a captive market, so there will no longer be any competition from cheaper European hauliers with lower fuel costs. The biggest issue will of course be the backlog of trucks queuing at the ports. All the time spend by drivers stuck in the port queues will be added to the transportation costs the customer has to pay. So the customer is hit twice with price increases from inefficiency and lack of competition.

Sad Weevil

iTrader: (1)

We've always been able to do this. Prior to the implementation of the customs union, I used to deliver groupage to Antwerp, run empty to e.g. the Ruhr in Germany and backload for the UK. We needed the correct permits from the International Road Traffic office in Newcastle. 1 permit per trip, country specific. Cabotage would be tipping in say Belgium, reloading in Germany for delivery to Italy.

Mr Fuji

I see Rees Mogg has declared that a no deal Brexit will deliver a £1 trillion increase the UK economy over the next 15 years.

This is quite something considering previously he has said we will see no benefit for a long time, and also refuted financial forecasts as no can no know the political or financial landscape that far in the future.

Not to mention that sort of increase would mean a year on year 3.6% increase in GDP for the next 15 years. Talk about making sh*t up!

BMWhere?

This is an interesting decomposition of the Economists for Brexit (or more correctly Economist for Brexit as there is only one economist who supports it) economic forecast being touted by Project Fantasy. Basically taking us back to the past using outdated economic models from the 70's and ignoring all economic benefits that the EU has delivered over the past 40 years!

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/0...ational-trade/

Note the above is a blog from a group of independent economists at the London School of Economics who are a world leading economics research university vs. a single somewhat discredited economist who has been commissioned by the hard-line Tory Brexiteers to come up with an economic model to suit their political agenda!

dpb

Didnt i read Rees Mogg was admitting it would take 50 years for it all to settle down ??1

BMWhere?

AFAIK, he has only said that in private circles, his public message is everything will be fine! He's the archetypal Toff who believes in the class system and champions the widening of the class divide as a result of Brexit - make the rich richer and the poor poorer! Obviously, he's not sitting on the poorer side of the fence!

hodgy0_2

cabotage is not just for road haulage - it is the same concept that allows a UK airline to fly from Berlin to Paris to Amsterdam to ....... wherever (in the EU)

that's why Easyjet have moved some functionality and investment to Austria - all UK based airlines will have to in one form or another after Brexit

that's why airfares will undoubtedly go up next year

it is actually much worse than simple cabotage - as the Notice to stakeholders I linked to and quoted last year says

essentially a UK issued HGV licence will not be recognised in the EU

re posted below - it is well worth reading them if you work in haulage as it is clear Failing Grayling hasn't

https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites...-transport.pdf

"Thus, as of the withdrawal date, drivers who are United Kingdom nationals and do not constitute long-term residents in the Union, within the meaning of Council Directive 2003/109/EC, and who work for a Union haulier holding a Community licence require a driver attestation. In accordance with Article 5(2) of Regulation (EC) No 1072/20097, this driver attestation shall be issued by the competent authorities of the Member State of establishment of the haulier holding a Community licence for each driver who is neither a national nor a long-term resident within the meaning of Council Directive 2003/109/EC8 whom that haulier lawfully employs or who is put at his disposal.

o Certificate of professional competence for drivers: In accordance with Directive 2003/59/EC9, drivers in the Union of a vehicle intended for the carriage of goods or for the carriage of passengers need to hold a certificate of professional competence certifying the initial qualification or periodic training and issued by competent authorities of an EU Member State or by an approved training centre in an EU Member State. Drivers who are nationals of an EU Member State obtain their initial qualification in the EU Member State of their normal residence while drivers who are nationals of third countries do this in the EU Member State which issued a work permit to them. As of the withdrawal date, certificates of professional competence issued by the United Kingdom or by an approved training centre in the United Kingdom will no longer be valid in the EU-27."

Wurzel

iTrader: (1)

More ifs, buts and maybe's.

If all this comes to pass then it is going to be a frigging nightmare.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-no-d...ealed-11496350

hodgy0_2

you can read them here

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal

from the driving one

and obviously you won't be automatically insured either - although all this is old news to anyone paying attention

BMWhere?

Saw that on BBC news too. Bit of a PITA for anyone who travels regularly!

My photocard license expires in November, so I was anyway planning to switch to a German license while I still can still convert it 1:1 without losing my ability to drive a bus with upto 19 (non paying) passengers with a trailer up to 3 tons

Wurzel

iTrader: (1)

Might be a wise idea as I don't want to lose any of the catagories I have either, like driving a 7.5 ton truck or a minibus and trailer

BMWhere?

Better to do it before Brexit than after! After Brexit, you will most likely have to get a German license anyway, regardless of the agreement, at least doing it now you will have the minimum hassle and you don't lose any of your categories without having to do a retest!

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Ooh, ooh, hodgy is so frightened.....

I bet you are unaware of the FACT that the CE mark carries so little weight in France, that electrical items so marked, but NOT also marked NF (Normes Francaises), will actually fail the consuel visit for new electrical installations in homes?

And have you not heard of the Kitemark? THAT carried far more weight.........

But you keep on with project fear.

Mr Fuji

Roaming charges too, what next? They just keep coming.................

I'm not sure why Brexiteers keep quoting project fear, we are now into the harsh realities of what Brexit will actually mean. Highlighting real issues is not fear mongering, it is simply a reflection of the difficulties that will face both business and consumers, both for no deal and whatever deal may get agreed.

The leavers simply do not come up with any viable alternatives, it can't all just be done after we leave and hope for the best!

Martin2005

I have a very expensive TV, it nearly got smashed last night listening to Julia Hartley-Brewer on Question Time…
It so annoys me that people like her think they can dictate what Brexit is or isn’t. She and the other hardline Brexit fans seem to have forgotten that half the country didn’t vote for this, and yet they feel that the full fundamentalist, ideological Brexit ‘reflects the public’s views’ – BS, it almost certainly doesn’t reflect the views of most of the people that voted Leave! This issue has been hijacked by people like her.
I know one thing for sure, if we actually did exit on her terms, and things went wrong, it would not be her that has to pay the price, it would be the rest of us. If things went really badly she’d just **** off somewhere else and write for a different hate filled rag.
Hopefully there will be a proper reckoning for these people.

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Edited the above for accuracy.

Here's another qustion for you Reamain wnakers:

Greece: bankrupt.
Italy: bankrupt.

Spain, Cyprus and now even France, almost bankrupt.

And you remainers want us to stay in because....?
So we can prop them all up, I suppose, with our money tree that nice Mr Corbyn knows about?

BMWhere?

It's interesting now with the Daily Mail's new editor how the stance of the paper has now changed from hardcore Brexit to hardcore remain. The readers must be really confused!

BMWhere?

Newsflash, the UK is pretty much bankrupt too!

Martin2005

Sounds like project fear

Mr Fuji

Of course the extent of these things is not an exact science, they may not be be as bad, they could be worse. However, Brexiteers offer nothing about how things will work, just that we should 'walk away'. That is irresponsible in the extreme. Then you have c*nts like Rees Mogg making stuff up which is clearly impossible. Project bollocks, perhaps?

Funnily enough, the overwhelming projection from analysts, the CBI, the motoring industry, the NHS, you name it, is that Brexit will be a bad thing. You can go into full conspiracy mode if you want, or can accept that it's unlikely that all these organisations are pulling your leg, for whatever reason. If Brexit was so wonderful, they would all be rubbing their hands, but they are not. The people championing it are mostly rich politicians, that should tell you all you need.

stevebt

iTrader: (8)

All the things they are saying will happen once we leave the EU were just obvious to anyone with a brain. March 30th 2019 is the start of prices going out of control as import duties etc. I wonder how the likes of Aldi/Lidl can maintain their prices as its all goods from the EU.
The good thing is if they impose permits for our driving licenses it will mean we can just hammer thru any speed camera or park anywhere in the EU when in our own car as how can they affect our license

hodgy0_2

I believe we had an opt out on that - i.e. no one in the rest of eth EU could demand our DVLA details

hodgy0_2

keep on believing

The Trooper 1815

iTrader: (31)

I think Aldi/Lidl source a considerable amount of stock in the UK. Just read the labels for that info. But all the main retailers import stuff.
The Septics have a good view of EU economics. A good read.
https://fee.org/articles/most-of-eur...united-states/

Mr Fuji

It seems that everyone and their dog is warning of dire consequences now,but still the Brexiteers keep their heads in the sand, complaining about project fear, or that we should all just pull together.

It is starting to take on Flat Earth stupidity now.

I do wonder whether May has actually been holding out for this and will swoop in with another referendum, or simply withdraw from Article 50 at the last minute, claiming to be the saviour of the UK in the face of such disruption. Surely, as a person who voted remain, she can't really buy into this bullsh1t?

Polls show a strong swing to remain, now, which either indicates that some leave voters are more concerned about the damage it will obviously do vs the freedoms they sought, or that they now actually realise what a benefit being in the EU is.

Interesting times