dpb

Will you be getting shot your continental 2nd home Alcazar , if we leave ??

warrenm2

This statement is true, however your quote of Madscoob is not speculation. IF we come out, AND spend it in the UK on healthcare and roads, THEN healthcare/roads WILL improve. Taxes WILL be collected on wages. This is not speculation, it is how things work

neil-h

That's not actually what he said though. He was saying that we'd have our national debt cleared by 2030, which is complete speculation. Your post also assumes that money is the solution to the problem and that things will get better simply by investing in them, this is very rarely the case.

Martin2005

It is total speculation, and based on completely the wrong number.


The whole argument seems to based upon, us coming out the EU, saving the money, then somehow spending it, and there being absolutely no detrimental impact on the UK economy from leaving. If the economy was only 0.1% smaller as a result of Brexit, that completely wipes out this so called 'saving'. Therefore I'd call that analysis pure speculation.

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

Only if the French chuck us out...which I doubt, since the rural economy depends very much on Brits living there, full or part, time.

That's why the french government have been ignoring the EU for at LEAST fifteen years, and still allow VAT to be paid at a much-reduced rate on all renovations carried out by French-registered artisans, labour AND materials.

Every year the EU tells them they mustn't do it and every year they say, "Oh yes, sorry, we forgot, it won't happen next year..."

Would that OUR government had the ***** to do something similar when needed.

Why would I get rid? It's paid for, we like it, and we have nothing against France or the French.

Tidgy

But what if it was 0.1% better after a brexit?

It's dead easy to answer, none of what is being said is fact, it's all speculation and best guess.

Personally I'm, still sat on the fence with the whole thing, both sides are just making guess and hard facts are very difficult to come by.

Read this morning that 70% of our trades is outside the EU anyway, not even sure how much truth there is in that

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

And yours, of course, isn't?
What if the whole economy GROWS by 0.1% because we leave? Double whammy!

But see, no-one knows, and the bad outweighs the good at present. IMHO.

Martin2005

That would be great, but that's hardly where the balance of economic opinion is

Tidgy

what balance? there isn't any balance

you could argue that because only 30 of the top 100 CEO's in the uk said they supported the remain then balance of opinion is 70 say leave.

so by far to leave

jonc

My issue with the EU is that it is very undemocratic. Take for example what the EU politicians sitting in Brussels did to Greece. They ousted a democratically elected Greek government and with the ECB imposed an economic programme that has crippled its economy and stripped the country of its assets. Similar actions were taken against Italy and the UK did not escaped EU's demand for more bailout money from UK taxpayers to bolster failing EU economies and the EUro. EU law is imposed on the UK by unelected and unaccountable politicians and lobbied by large multinational companies. Granted that some of those laws have been beneficial for the UK, but this system is open to cronyism and corruption. As the EU tightens its integration with all the other member states, the future for the UK is looking to become ever more isolated, left with limited opt-outs and vetoes. Cameron's negotiated "red card" is ineffectual unless it has a majority backing from the other EU member states and we're all out of favour with those states.

But what are the alternatives? To summarise:

The UK could join the EEA with Norway. The UK would still be in the Single market and the UK would be able to negotiate trade deals independently of the EU. However, the UK would have no say on the Single Market policy and still comply with all the regulations and rules and still pay the EU to access the Single Market.

The UK could formulate bilateral agreements like Switzerland. Here there would be tariff free trade and free movement of people. Again the UK would be free to negotiate trade deals independent of the EU and have more opt-outs of EU initiatives. However, the UK would still have to adhere to EU rules and regulations but have no say and still pay to access the market.

The UK could re-join the EFTA, has similar terms to the EEA but is not obligated to pay into the EU. However, whilst it allows free trade of goods, crucially it does not apply to services which is a major stumbling block since the majority of UK's economy is in the service sector.

Trading under the WTO as an independent state means that the UK and all its trading partners would be subject to the import/export tariffs of each of its trading partners. There would be no access to the EU service providers and all goods has to meet EU regulations. There would be no requirement to adopt EU economic policies nor contribute to the EU budget.

No point in going into what a completely new deal might mean or look like, we simply have absolutely no idea what could or could not be agreed upon exit.

So after doing some more digging, I'm finding these alternatives are a huge concession to being outside of the EU economically. The EU is the UK's largest trading partner, there is no escaping this fact. Geographically, we will always trade more with the market that closest to us. Membership to the EU is far from perfect. Obviously there are many advantages to being part of one of the most powerful trading blocs in the world, one of which is a place on the negotiating table, but it’s also difficult to reconcile its deficiencies I mentioned earlier. I am reluctantly climbing back on the fence......

Martin2005

You're right there is no balance, that's my point. Thus far the vast majority of economic opinion is stacked against leave.


Not sure what you mean by your second point

Martin2005

I'm with you on the democratic deficiencies 100% it would be my reason for voting out.


90% of this debate is about immigration, it may be being dressed up as other things, but it's immigration that has driven this referendum.


Nobody can really explain to me what Brexit looks like from an immigration perspective. It would be ironic if we left, but ended up with an immigration policy that looks pretty similar to what we have today.

hodgy0_2

the "democratic deficit" is defiantly an issue

and my biggest concern, I also agree what they did to Greece was a disgrace

but we live in such a Global world that this actual issue is being diluted all the time - in my view

countries are effected by forces outside their control all the time, we are no different - globalisation make this inevitable

on that question time program one women piped up and started ranting how she wanted to be "free", "free" she kept saying

but I couldn't help thinking she was free, in what way was she not? - and living in one of the most free countries in the world

warrenm2

Yes, it depends on the problem. In the case of fixing the roads say, it is the problem. With the money, we have the technology, we can rebuild them....

Tidgy

Was mentioning it due to miss representing with an opinion of a fact.

The fact 70 didn't sign doesn't mean 70 were opposed to it

Martin2005

I know, if you look back at the start of this thread, some people were using that exact same argument.

madscoob

iTrader: (3)

look up phillip milton on the internet he is actually a very clever economist and financial adviser local to north devon, and no thicko by a long shot, why anyone would want to give someone else 50million quid so they could tell you how to spend what they give you back, and on what is beyond me

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

This^^

alcazar

iTrader: (2)

But if it's not laid down by the EU, then our politicians had better hope the UK public agrees with it, because if they don't, the government are out at the next election.

At present, they just blame the EU, and hide from the problems, and the UK public says, "Oh, well, if it's the EU, curse them, what can be done? Nowt!".

neil-h

Simples. It'll look like that favourite old UKIP sound bite, "Australian style points system".

hodgy0_2

yes I take that back re a "random" bloke

he certainly sounds interesting

Frustrated Bloke smashes his window

http://www.northdevonjournal.co.uk/F...ail/story.html

Dispute with brother costs £28,000 for North Devon businessman Philip J Milton

http://www.northdevonjournal.co.uk/D...ail/story.html

FOS upholds £50k investment complaint against Philip J Milton

https://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/fos...ilip-j-milton/


anyway that aside I still think don't think it prudent to make a decision based on a back of a *** packet calculation

madscoob

iTrader: (3)

how about this part then, can you offer a sensible reason for doing this
why anyone would want to give someone else 50million quid so they could tell you how to spend what they give you back, and on what and with whom

dpb

id thought the two bit entrepreneur whether in or out must rate as the least likely reliable candidate for an opinion

hodgy0_2

Well firstly the 50 million number is a myth, bunk, rubbish, claptrap

We pay a "fee" yes - but not 50 million

So with that crAp out of the way - I will responds

Yes the EEC is a "club", and in the same with any club, say a Golf Club, you pay a fee to join

Joining give you "rights" - like being able to book a Tee Off at 9.30 on a Sunday morning (or access to the single market)

With these rights you have corresponding responsibities - like wearing ridulous clothing (being part of a pan European border policy)

Thats the deal - it is not rocket science


but to think you can leave the club, not pay your fees and rock up at 9.30 and demand to Tee Off (ooh you will pay cash for the green fee)

Is a fantasy

Fare doos if the long term plan is to build your own golf club (a bit like Trump) and make your own rules

But otherwise maybe simply pay the fees and make sure you turn up on Sunday to play looking like Bruce Forsyth

madscoob

iTrader: (3)

this is our childrens lives and future we are talking about here not a fvcking golf club.
lets just say for the sake of argument it was a million, that is actually our tax money and not the goverments to do as they wish with, and they decided to keep it and spend it on our own,
they would get back 20% in vat on every pound spent
35% ish in tax and ni on every pound spent on wages which is then spent so again another 20% back, its almost like when they pumped all that money back into the banks, had they of given it to us it was £38500.00 for every person in the uk over 18
just think what would of happened.
people would of payed off mortgages (money stays in bank)
young couple find themselves with £76k to help fund buying a house (money stays in bank)
rich people would have a new car or holiday (money stays in bank) person selling said car/holiday pays tax and ni
people on benefits couldn't claim anything for several years, massive saving (money stays in bank again)
and all this money would of been subject to tax ni and vat plus every time it was spent, even on beer even the barman is again paying tax and ni on his wages, instead it went back on the banks pnl so they could pay bonuses to allready rich *****

Martin2005

You forgot to add the rampant inflation your analysis would create, making every pound continually worth less. The government then needs to tax more, companies go bust, debt goes up, people lose their jobs, and we end up at the IMF

madscoob

iTrader: (3)

why would it cause rampant inflation ? its not like getting a pay rise and the company you work for has to increase prices to cover it is it, it was free money martin our bloody tax money in the first place given to fvckwits who gambled on the money and comodaties markets, and lost and then asked us effectivley to cover their losses,

Martin2005

Give everyone £40k to spend, and you don't think that would create huge inflationary pressures? Surely not?


I'm no fan of the way banks behaved, but the bail-out wasn't for their benefit it was a necessary evil to save the UK economy from total disaster.

madscoob

iTrader: (3)

so pray tell why are we being asked to bail out a golf club (eu) because members who haven't got 2 pennies to scratch their **** with want to join ?

hodgy0_2

Sometimes you have to offer incentives for new member join a club!!!

Listen, to be brutally honest madscoop whether we are are in or out won't really effect me or my family

I feel pretty free, I don't feel constrained by EU regulation making my life a misery on a daily basis

I doubt I would feel any freerer out of the EU

I have a very good job - my pay and conditions would not change for the worse out of the EU (I suspect some peoples would)

So on a very personal level - "I don't give a Fvck"

Accept actually I do - I believe in the basic European ideals, (remember the Andrew Neil speech re Voltaire, Descartes et Al) and flawed as they maybe

I see them (European ideals) as a bulwark against the UK turning into a proxy American state - where a fvcking loonatic like Trump is actually quite close to the presidency