GlesgaKiss

Well, last months inflation figures came out this morning. Quite a jump as well... no longer just a steady 'creep up' on the previous month.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=19

So... what are your predictions for the rest of the year? And will the BoE do anything about it, or just keep going the way they are, praying for the best?

ScoobyDoo555

Well I've just locked down my mortgage for 4 years - I feel this is the start of something really painful.

Luan Pra bang

which one of those includes fuel costs ? I can't really see how inflation could have been any less given the 2.5% vat rise and the rise in the cost of fuel.

pslewis

My predictions are these:-

1. Interest Rates at 2.5% by 2012 - still very low, but FIVE times the here and now.

2. House Prices down 25% from 2010.

3. Unemployment at record levels.

4. Strikes - coffins unburied, bins not emptied, power cuts, etc.

5. The £ at new lows.

6. Inflation still at 6% and not dropping.

7. Petrol at £2 a Litre.

8. Insurance for Scoobies up 50%.

9. Gas Guzzlers - unsaleable.

10. SN turns Labour and calls for the end of the Tory reign.

And I'm always right!

GlesgaKiss

Every point there is feasible except for number 10. Maybe when hell freezes over, but not before.

g7prs

iTrader: (5)

Number 8 is just trolling though

Jimbob

iTrader: (13)

Welcome to 1970 under Labour.


TBH we`ve too many people in the world, resources running out, our main resources are in a politically unstable region.
With China on the up, when thats on full song (based on current developed world oil usage) China will use more oil per day, than what the world uses per day.
Just put that into perspective.
But then must be Camerons fault. lol.

GlesgaKiss

Oh yeah, missed that one.

Jimbob

iTrader: (13)

Their own internal markets are so large that they could easily fund the rest of the world, infact they are, as most gov bonds are owned by the chinese.

GlesgaKiss

The Chinese are on the up because they are on the up, it's as simple as that. They export a hell of a lot, but ask yourself what they get in return for that? They're sitting on trillions of dollars of forex reserves, so clearly they could be considered wealthy in the traditional sense, over countries running large deficits - i.e. the developed world currently. But wealth for the 1.3 billion people living there would be better appreciated in the form of stuff they can actually buy. The factories produce stuff at low cost... hence why the export market grew in the first place: it was cheaper for us to buy stuff from China and ship it here that it was for us to make it down the road!

If China keeps its borders open to international capital and lets its currency appreciate, people will still invest there due to the opportunity, and the wages that the Chinese people are paid will allow them to buy/consume more for themselves, rather than receiving a promise to be paid yet more dollars at some point in the future.

In that case their growth could continue without us... they have no need for us now - except perhaps some short-term pain (i.e. a couple of years) when their exports are hit. Clearly they have their own ideas about how to run their economy though, influenced somewhat by their 'communist' ideals... which to be honest seem to be in name only these days.

EddScott

If inflation is being driven by fuel costs, VAT and food stuffs and the expectation is that inflation will cool within 18 months or so, does that mean fuel and food will come down in price? How will inflation cool if these drivers don't decline.

I understood one reason for interest rates not going up is the raising rates won't affect the above and won't really have an effect on inflation - directly anyway. I've read that it will drive the demand for higher wages but I don't quite see how that works if most businesses are watching every penny.

Is sterling very weak right now? I don't know - I'm assuming so.

As for China, if the west is a bit skint they are going to have to look to their own population to start buying their produce.

Dingdongler

Yes agree with points 1-9, it is the legacy left to us by Labour

GlesgaKiss

Sterling isn't particularly weak at the moment, Edd. In fact, it's quite strong against the dollar and euro compared to how it's been over the last 6 months to a year.

But then again, there is a problem measuring currencies like these against each other and attempting to define 'strength'. It'll always be relative strength to other currencies rather than an indicator of absolute strength, and comparing it to commodities and goods, etc.

lozgti1

Agreed...and I feel very very concerned at the moment.Well,sick as a dog

This is going to be the worst situation we have had for many years

rossyboy

iTrader: (8)

The price of oil will surely prevent that from happening though? The world cannot supply those levels of oil, so demand will be tempered by shockingly high prices.........and then we're all f*****. The price reaching nearly $150 a barrel was one of the triggers for the recession was it not?

f1_fan

iTrader: (9)

Don't agree on the house prices thinking. I can't see prices dropping much as people simply have too much money in their properties to accept way less than what they perceive them to be worth. No instead I think the market will just grind to a complete halt while the economy catches up.... could be many years!

Terminator X

iTrader: (7)

How can they though if the majority earn the square root of **** all?

TX.

markjmd

iTrader: (11)

+1, and add to that the fact that a lot of China's economic expansion has come from the working and middle-classes there going against long-standing tradition and using up most of their savings. They can obviously only do that once, so that puts another question mark over how much their internal market can still grow.

EddScott

Thanks

Well, this was my thinking. If we are looking to the east to keep the global economy moving yet most eastern growth is flogging goods to the west, what are they going to do when we are all skint and there own population is skint too.

Haven't seen any of the episodes but theres a series called The Chinese are coming. They seem to be quite interested in Africa. I guess if they allow their population to grow in wealth, the chinese are going to need cheap labour of thier own. In 20 years time the chinese could be buying their cheap electrical products from Africa

tony de wonderful

It that were true then no bubble would ever pop.

Having said that though unless there is pressure to sell then I think people will just not move and/or put off moving for a while, but you can't have an economy where geographical mobility is crippled in this way.

lozgti1

Isn't it more likely people have no money in their houses having borrowed so much that they can't move?

Our economy has virtually lived off the house price rises and now its totally screwed.People can't borrow money and the icing on the cake is loads of people being made redundant or having wage cuts and yet prices for basic things are going through the roof

FlightMan

Install PropertyBee and then browse Rightmove.

The amount of properties with price reductions of 15-25% off the original asking price will shock you.

FlightMan

And when rates rise, as they will, these people will loose their homes.

Real inflation at 10% or so.
Wage deflation.
Rising interest rates.

That's a deadly combination for anyone with a mortgage and no spare cash.

FlightMan

The drivers don't have to decline, just remain where there are now. Take VAT, as long as the govt doesn't increase it again, then next Jan the 2.5% increase drops out of the calculation. That's how i understand it. Happy to be told otherwise.

Compared to 6-9 months ago, sterling has appreciated.

Look at China's GDP figures. They're around 100 in the world league table, somewhere around Namibia I think. Most of them don't have a pot to **** in, let alone money to replace the declining spending power of the west. Big problems ahead in China I think.

tony de wonderful

There are if the miracle growth and urbanisation stalls.

China has been very poor but a stable agricultural economy now you have masses of people moved into mega-cities and that brings potential social problems especially if the work dries up and even does not grow so fast! Could China's 'communist' government be nurturing the growth of an urban working classe which will bring it down one day? The irony!

EddScott

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks

http://www.ifaonline.co.uk/ifaonline...flation-report

Rates up from May?

f1_fan

iTrader: (9)

It's not hard to take 15-25% off a price that was vastly overinflated in the first place. I spoke with an estate agent recently who said when he values a property now invariably the owners go against his valution and ask him to put it on the market at 10-20% more ..... only to have to slash the price later hence all the properties with 15-25% off you are seeing.

Anyway I am talking about the future. I don't think many will sell their house for less than 20$% off what they 'think' it is worth today and that will eventually stagnate the market.

f1_fan

iTrader: (9)

I also think anyone thinking China isn't going to continue growing is deluding themselves. They are a vastly different society than the West and will put the growth of their country ahead of things we wouldn't. I know it grates with some to have a 'communist' nation becoming the world super power, but it is happening and all the unease at that from the right wingers in the West is a nice by product