GlesgaKiss

Made a new high today of $1311. Due a dip soon no doubt. What do people here think? Still buying?

When there was $50+ drop over a few days a couple of months ago and it was around $1180 I was looking to buy ETFs, but didn't have the funds. Could have been a profitable bit of speculation!

What are your thoughts on the precious metals market at the moment? Silver looking good too.

kingofturds

iTrader: (1)

Give old Gordon Brown a ring I hear he is an expert on selling gold

GlesgaKiss

And cheap too.

dpb

Not got into it all , wish i had

Dingdongler

Well where shall I start?

I've been going on and on about gold here for years (including under a previous user name)

People have tried to shoot me down on a number of different threads where I've said gold can only go in one direction.

$1500 is a certainty as far as I'm concerned, and I would not be surprised at $2000.

Alan, you can see what I see. Paper money can only be devalued by endless printing, gold is the ultimate store of value. Add to that the fact that China wants to diversify it's foreign reserves out of the dollar, India is the biggest 'consumer' of gold and it's middle class is growing, and remember if you adjust the peak price of gold from the eighties for inflation ($850) it should be circa $3000.

tony de wonderful

I've fooled around with commodity and precious metal ETF's in my time.

I've never lost a significant amount but came to the conclusion it is easy too lose your shirt, and believe me many, many, professional traders do.

If I get into precious metals again it will be just holding some physical as part of a balanced portfolio.

I know a balanced portfolio is by definition mediocre but I feel quite risk averse these days. I'm saving for a house so my need to preserve wealth feels more important.

GlesgaKiss

Yip, I was just looking for other opinions... bit of moral support.

As for the $2000/oz gold: the big question is whether that will be substantially more than its current price in real terms if it gets there.

I had a feeling you weren't a new member to this site btw.

I'm the same. I tried trading for a while, made quite a bit of profit (probably through luck more than anything else), and then lost all the profit. Decided to stop rather than potentially lose money that I'd saved. Gold is attractive to me for a medium-term hold though, I have a lot of confidence in it (not that that makes any difference to the outcome ). Would like to see quite a decent correction though.

alloy

$1500 target price over next 12months, chart looks stable as if to say this is not a bubble. QE round 2 on the way investors will flock to safer asset classes, i'm a buyer on dips will fill my boots if we see a correction to the downside

GlesgaKiss

Hi Andy,

what are your views on the bond market at the moment? Especially U.S. treasuries?

As you say, what sets gold apart from bubbles for me is the fact that everyone (i.e., the general public) isn't buying. There are obviously some companies trying to con folk out of their jewelery, but other than that it's just a steady rise. If the U.S. dollar and bond market does experience a collapse or a substantial drop then my thinking is that it will accelerate the rises in gold quite rapidly - as you say - because there will be the flight to safety accompanied by the weakness in the dollar.

What will be interesting after that is what the Americans will do after the bond market (Bubble?) bursts. They could make things a lot worse by trying to buy even more of their treasuries in an effort to prop up the market?

tony de wonderful

I think that is years away to be honest.

It will be world-historical event.

alloy

Bond market to me looks like a bubble, equities are at a key junction we are testing some key levels on the indicies a rejection of these resistance levels would give rise to a very bearish signal, there are a few diamond reversal patterns out there which always spook me, for example this would suggest a price target on the S&P to 750 followed by 200 if you are to understand and believe elliot wave theory. Having said that a recent observation is despite selling off intraday there still remain buyers out there and the bears seamingly lack conviction.

Dingdongler

Andy, with the greatest respect, when I said $1500 on Alan's 'short term trader' thread about 6 months ago I'm sure you did not agree. I think it was you and another professional trader (who's name I can't remember) who thought the price of gold was about to reverse as that's what all the so called indicators/charts/formations were showing

I argued Macroeconomics but at the time it seemed like it was all falling on deaf ears.

Anyway, $1500 is no real target tbh. I think you are behind the curve, $1500 is an inevitability, it's going to happen. Question is when/if $2000 will happen. I think it will, so the target is $2000 imho.

ps apologies if I've misquoted you. Perhaps Alan could dig out his old thread?

Dingdongler

I've been waiting for that decent correction for quite some time to make my final (and for me substantial) investment into gold. It's never really happened, I almost managed to get in at about $1180 a few months back and then dithered and missed the boat, now we're at bloody $1300

Anyway, my feeling is that one has to have faith that gold will climb to $1500++ and then just jump in. I'm going to blow a wad on the stuff as soon as it's anywhere near $1250. I'm lucky in that I started buying at $650/oz, but as I mentioned before I want more!

On your short term trader thread I remember people saying they might consider buying if it fell below $1000 and I said we would never see sub $1000 again (for the foreseeable future). One so called professional trader on here even started shorting the stuff!! Lord have mercy, who on god's earth trusts their money to a guy who can't see what's going on right in front of him???

Now I'd say we will never see sub $1150, it ain't gonna happen. If you want in on gold you'll have to jump in at $1200+ mark.

Leslie

As a matter of interest, what did the brilliant (according to Pete) Flash Gordon sell half of our gold reserves for?

Les

alloy

Dingdongler, what i do is spin money i buy for 100 and sell for 101, i create an alpha return thats all i look to do. Buying and holding over a period of 6-24months attempting to hit a home run is what i class as a position and is usually made on a wider macro view, as per your views, i do not entertain this mentality what so ever. I am nimble and i exploit volatility. Being nimble allows me to change my view on an intraday basis, what i may view now as a long opportunity i may be looking to sell short by tomorrow morning. As you know things change on a real time basis which is why my work is labour intensive and the premium for our services is high.

27th Nov 2009 I posted:
I think $1500 is a realistic view for gold into the new year, the leg forward gold has seen seems to be a speculative bubble based on USD being weak with the $index getting to 15mth lows. Still seems uncertain as to the pull back being a buying opportunity or the inital stage of a more aggressive sell off having said that looks to be decent support at 1130 and that has held, perhaps the near term dollar position and how the US markets react should maybe give investors a bit more guidance.

Then i did make money short Gold leading into xmas selling short circa 1140 covering i think nearer 1090s.

alloy

just found this old post of mine on 22nd Dec 09
"I'm short gold from 1142, target is 1045, may cover it leading into Christmas though, but i reckon it still has a chance to trade softer "

1045 was the low, on the nose, check your Gold Spot charts! Only it happened 2 months later in Feb, god i'm good if only i'd have patience!

Dingdongler

Fair enough Andy, I did apologise in advance if I had misquoted you

It must have been the other fella then.

Is your office in Liverpool Street?

alloy

Use to be, left previous role to establish a hedge fund now so me and the team are in Mayfair. You london based?

alloy

Dingdongler i presume post 16 answers this question of yours...
One so called professional trader on here even started shorting the stuff!! Lord have mercy, who on god's earth trusts their money to a guy who can't see what's going on right in front of him???

Dingdongler

Yup. I'm going to be passing through Liverpool street a few times over the next few months and thought I might pop in, buy you lunch and see what you do for your clients. Just in case I ever needed somebody to help me invest/ trade my piggy bank

Now that you are into hedge funds you're probably way out of my league

Dingdongler

No it wasn't you. It was another fella who was shorting it THIS year around early summer

alloy

Received an email from a charting analyst i respect, not my view certainly not something to entice you to trade gold off the back of, but for those who are interested it is at least a short term view...

The recent surge in spot gold is attributable to the weakening dollar, but if one compares the Relative Strength of gold against the US Dollar Index it is clear that gold has been appreciating against the entire basket* of currencies since 2001. And the trend shows no signs of abatement.
The US Dollar Index is declining towards its target of 76.50* after a brief retracement to test the new resistance level at 80. Respect of the zero line by 21-day Twiggs Momentum signals a strong down-trend.
Gold is testing short-term resistance at $1310. Reversal below the rising trendline on 21-day Twiggs Momentum Oscillator would signal retracement to test the new support level at $1260. Failure of support is unlikely and respect would confirm the primary advance to $1360*.
Silver is also expected to retrace to test its new support level at $20. Respect would confirm an advance to $25*. Rising Relative Strength indicates that silver is appreciating against gold (i.e. rising at a faster rate).

GlesgaKiss

New high of $1321.8. Has to be due a pullback soon, pretty much all the talk is positive now, same as it was just before christmas.

GlesgaKiss

Cheers for the analysis alloy.

Saint AAI

What is the best way to invest in gold? I'm new to all this and have recently bought shares in a couple of things, but want to invest in other stuff. I have an account with T.D Waterhouse at the moment. When I search for investing in gold I get all sorts of sites like BullionVault, are these any good?

alloy

Morgan Stanley ups target 2011 target to $1512

Petem95

Gold would appear to be a good option, but how are people investing? Gold stocks I'm guessing?

I did consider investing in gold some years back, but never did unfortunately.

The global economy looks worryingly fragile, so I wouldn't mind getting some money into gold incase things go really bad (ie UK defaulted and Sterling plummeted or something like that).

Wouldn't be surprised to see a return to the gold standard at some point in the near future.

GlesgaKiss

That's the view I have. Don't want to seem fixed to this doom and gloom view, but it does seem sensible to look to protect wealth rather than look for returns in fixed income, etc. More QE on the way, RPI already running near 5%, what more damage can they do with additional 'stimulus'? Almost a no-brainer to own some commodities.

Looking to buy ETFs (ETCs) on any substantial correction. That's probably one of the best ways to buy gold. You can buy ETFs backed 100% by physical or some use leverage. Or even a basket precious metals ETF?

GlesgaKiss

Probably ETFs or 'ETCs' as mentioned above. http://www.share.com/shareholder/Q20..._ETCs_p6-7.pdf

marky1

I might be the other trader you are referring to although I have not shorted it this year I was short end of last year. Will be the first to admit I was wrong, it has not come off like I thought, although it did drop about $200 end of last year - Jan 2010. To be fair and without looking for arguments the issue I have when I am trading is I cannot take a $200 drop (15%) with the kind of trades I put on. I'm highly leveraged and similar to alloy looking for short term movements. I can't sit on something that falls so much praying that it will recover because my exposure would be too large. I'd rather be stopped out and on to something else. If you are in it for the long run and have no problem with a 25% drop then that's fine but that is not what I do.
I think the point I was trying to make last year was that it's a lot easier to sit and hold something if you don't mind large downside.
Anyway well done, I guess for you the 15% drop wasn't an issue and maybe you even topped up there, it's just good to warn people that sometimes these things drop and keep dropping.