The Start of the Economic Revival?
10 June 2009, 01:18 PM
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The Start of the Economic Revival?
UK industrial output rose unexpectedly in April - the first month-on-month climb since February 2008, official figures have shown.
Output rose by 0.3% from the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said. Analysts had been expecting output to fall by 0.1%
Manufacturing rose 0.2%, which was also an unexpected rise.
House prices up, Cars selling, Shoppers spending ..... looks like the worst is behind us?
Output rose by 0.3% from the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said. Analysts had been expecting output to fall by 0.1%
Manufacturing rose 0.2%, which was also an unexpected rise.
House prices up, Cars selling, Shoppers spending ..... looks like the worst is behind us?
10 June 2009, 01:23 PM
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Yes yes of course it is. Now this is from someone that knows what they're talking about:
House prices in Britain rose last month, confirming that the slump in the south of England has levelled out, according to the Halifax Building Society,’ ran the story in The Times. ‘The Halifax’s latest quarterly survey shows that prices in general rose by 0.5%, and the indications are of a definite bottoming-out’.
The above statements were not made this week or last week. In fact, they were made in October 1990. House prices didn’t bottom for another four years.
Now, just as then, you should ignore the outbreak of bullish talk across the media on UK house prices. This is a dead cat bounce.
House prices in Britain rose last month, confirming that the slump in the south of England has levelled out, according to the Halifax Building Society,’ ran the story in The Times. ‘The Halifax’s latest quarterly survey shows that prices in general rose by 0.5%, and the indications are of a definite bottoming-out’.
The above statements were not made this week or last week. In fact, they were made in October 1990. House prices didn’t bottom for another four years.
Now, just as then, you should ignore the outbreak of bullish talk across the media on UK house prices. This is a dead cat bounce.
10 June 2009, 06:43 PM
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As much as i would like to agree, i fear not.
I work for probably the biggest automotive manufacturing success story of the last 10 years in the UK, growing anywhere between 10-20% for the last 7 years (until this year), with acknowledged class leading products in quite a few sectors of the market. The overall industry has been hard hit, with some of our competitors showing up to a 50% loss in the last year. Ours is around 4% (June 08 - June 09) making us the second best performer in the world. We have still managed to increase our market share in every single region / country around the world even though overall sales are down a bit. We have not made anyone redundant apart from a handful of temps, no reduced hours etc..etc..
I say this purely to set the scene - we are healthy and probably better placed than anyone to ride out whats going on and will continue for a while yet.
The last couple of days we have been looking at some interesting graphs and stats. The total worldwide market for sales peaked in 2007 at 1.35M units. it had increased nicely and evenly since 2003 at 1.0M (say about a 40 degree incline on a year/sales graph). Since mid 2008 it has gone into freefall and the graph is showing a near vertical drop to the point where already the market can only sustain about 0.95M. So 0.4M in less than a year and its still falling.
Even when it does bottom (which granted - looking at the last 2 weeks figures - may not be to many months away), the decline has been so rapid it is going to take a long time for the graph to start going the right way. There will be a long period of levelling first during which there will be many more jobs lost from the companies struggling and the associated affects that has.
It's not turned yet, and when it does it is going to be very slow, we are still looking at another 1-2 years yet before any appreciable growth and will have to cut costs (not necessarily in man power) accordingly. I can't see anyone else in the automotive sector fairing any better.
I work for probably the biggest automotive manufacturing success story of the last 10 years in the UK, growing anywhere between 10-20% for the last 7 years (until this year), with acknowledged class leading products in quite a few sectors of the market. The overall industry has been hard hit, with some of our competitors showing up to a 50% loss in the last year. Ours is around 4% (June 08 - June 09) making us the second best performer in the world. We have still managed to increase our market share in every single region / country around the world even though overall sales are down a bit. We have not made anyone redundant apart from a handful of temps, no reduced hours etc..etc..
I say this purely to set the scene - we are healthy and probably better placed than anyone to ride out whats going on and will continue for a while yet.
The last couple of days we have been looking at some interesting graphs and stats. The total worldwide market for sales peaked in 2007 at 1.35M units. it had increased nicely and evenly since 2003 at 1.0M (say about a 40 degree incline on a year/sales graph). Since mid 2008 it has gone into freefall and the graph is showing a near vertical drop to the point where already the market can only sustain about 0.95M. So 0.4M in less than a year and its still falling.
Even when it does bottom (which granted - looking at the last 2 weeks figures - may not be to many months away), the decline has been so rapid it is going to take a long time for the graph to start going the right way. There will be a long period of levelling first during which there will be many more jobs lost from the companies struggling and the associated affects that has.
It's not turned yet, and when it does it is going to be very slow, we are still looking at another 1-2 years yet before any appreciable growth and will have to cut costs (not necessarily in man power) accordingly. I can't see anyone else in the automotive sector fairing any better.
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10 June 2009, 07:41 PM
#10
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before the recovery for the great unwashed takes hold -- the top 10% in society have to truly "dip there bread" and get filthy rich again
its called tricke down economics -- get used to it, its the way of the future
now you've gotta ask yourself a question -- are you one of the 90% or one of lucky 10%
do you feel lucky punk -- well do ya
its called tricke down economics -- get used to it, its the way of the future
now you've gotta ask yourself a question -- are you one of the 90% or one of lucky 10%
do you feel lucky punk -- well do ya
10 June 2009, 08:05 PM
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before the recovery for the great unwashed takes hold -- the top 10% in society have to truly "dip there bread" and get filthy rich again
its called tricke down economics -- get used to it, its the way of the future
now you've gotta ask yourself a question -- are you one of the 90% or one of lucky 10%
do you feel lucky punk -- well do ya
its called tricke down economics -- get used to it, its the way of the future
now you've gotta ask yourself a question -- are you one of the 90% or one of lucky 10%
do you feel lucky punk -- well do ya
A recovery will surley be lead by consumer confidence, the 10% will do particularly well when the 90% start spending again
I heard a report today on SKY that there are predictions of growth returning as early as the 2nd half of this year, which is great news if it pans out
10 June 2009, 08:19 PM
#12
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Not sure I agree with this, 'trickle down' was more about reducing the tax burden on the rich in the hope that the wealth would cascade down...it was also called voodoo economics, by it's detractors
A recovery will surley be lead by consumer confidence, the 10% will do particularly well when the 90% start spending again
I heard a report today on SKY that there are predictions of growth returning as early as the 2nd half of this year, which is great news if it pans out
A recovery will surley be lead by consumer confidence, the 10% will do particularly well when the 90% start spending again
I heard a report today on SKY that there are predictions of growth returning as early as the 2nd half of this year, which is great news if it pans out
take the recent story of Lloyds Bank shafting 1600 workers (after receiving our tax money) so that they can payback the govt, and get them off thier backs so the good times can roll again
btw way as you know the chief proponents of tricke down were Regan and Thatcher --- but Bliar performed what I would call "Trickle Down Ver 2.0" i.e enhanced trickle down
but my point is what recovery there is will only benefit the top 10% first
Last edited by hodgy0_2; 10 June 2009 at 08:25 PM.
10 June 2009, 09:25 PM
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So a few months ago everyone was spouting that we were right up sh*t creek and we should all start growing our own food and prepare for mass riots...
...and now everything seems to be on the way up.
...and now everything seems to be on the way up.
10 June 2009, 09:29 PM
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Hmmmmmm, you don't know me too well do you?
The pain in my wallett after having been ripped off by a Tory supporting Dentist would be far worse than the pain of having a tooth pulled out by pliers!
Just imagine, for one moment, what a no NHS country would be like ...... shudder!
The pain in my wallett after having been ripped off by a Tory supporting Dentist would be far worse than the pain of having a tooth pulled out by pliers!
Just imagine, for one moment, what a no NHS country would be like ...... shudder!
10 June 2009, 10:12 PM
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10 June 2009, 11:32 PM
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Industrial output may be up slightly but this may be down to businesses restocking after running down stock and cutting their inventories in Q1 & Q2.
What really matters is will they be able to sell what they are outputting i.e. are builders building again, retailers selling more, are exports rising?
It will either be a "dead cat bounce" or we are flatlining along the bottom of the recession for a while.....
What really matters is will they be able to sell what they are outputting i.e. are builders building again, retailers selling more, are exports rising?
It will either be a "dead cat bounce" or we are flatlining along the bottom of the recession for a while.....
10 June 2009, 11:53 PM
#19
No, because those of us with any intelligence will know that the boom that he took so much credit for was all based on borrowed money, as is any sort of "bounce" being experienced now.
I am personally fed up of empty promises and a government that has failed to deliver anything it promised (let's forget their re-engineered statistical efforts to persuade us otherwise too shall we - we do live here after all).
Any upturn in the economy is NOTHING to do with him or Darling (a chancellor who has an accountant do his tax returns - hmmm, how confident are we in him then?) - I guarantee you that much!
What I'd like to see is a bunch of politicians who actually have morals, and have the interests of the people they're supposed to be saving at heart, rather than filling their pockets with the taxpayer's hard earned cash.
Seeing that's a fat chance, I'll take anyone over Labour at the moment - even UKIP!
The worst part was the news this evening, saying the treasury "hopes to have repaid our current debts by 2030" - 2030!!!??? It doesn't get more depressing.
I am personally fed up of empty promises and a government that has failed to deliver anything it promised (let's forget their re-engineered statistical efforts to persuade us otherwise too shall we - we do live here after all).
Any upturn in the economy is NOTHING to do with him or Darling (a chancellor who has an accountant do his tax returns - hmmm, how confident are we in him then?) - I guarantee you that much!
What I'd like to see is a bunch of politicians who actually have morals, and have the interests of the people they're supposed to be saving at heart, rather than filling their pockets with the taxpayer's hard earned cash.
Seeing that's a fat chance, I'll take anyone over Labour at the moment - even UKIP!
The worst part was the news this evening, saying the treasury "hopes to have repaid our current debts by 2030" - 2030!!!??? It doesn't get more depressing.
Last edited by MrNoisy; 10 June 2009 at 11:55 PM.
11 June 2009, 06:17 AM
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I wonder whether we'll see a W shaped pattern, ie more than just a little dead cat bounce but not the true recovery?
House prices in particular may well steady or even recover a bit due to cheap credit, but then inflation may force interest rates up and repos will rocket, especially for btlers.
House prices in particular may well steady or even recover a bit due to cheap credit, but then inflation may force interest rates up and repos will rocket, especially for btlers.
11 June 2009, 08:05 AM
#22
Agree with that DP..
The interest rates are artificially low ATM,so wait for the second wave of house price drops as the interest rates start to rise.
The current interest rate cannot be sustained for any period of time..
Were very far from recovery..
The interest rates are artificially low ATM,so wait for the second wave of house price drops as the interest rates start to rise.
The current interest rate cannot be sustained for any period of time..
Were very far from recovery..
11 June 2009, 12:09 PM
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Pete,
When they run out of the borrowed money and the printed stuff too, things will start to show the real financial state of this country. As you well know but won't admit, it was borrowing which made the economy look like it was in constant boom for the years Flash was at the treasury. The trouble is, we just can't live for ever on that borrowing because it will have to stop, or it will be stopped as Callaghan found out.
The next question is, how is the country going to keep from going bankrupt and pay back just the interest on the borrowed money let alone anything else? Where has our manufacturing industry and ability to export gone?
Les
When they run out of the borrowed money and the printed stuff too, things will start to show the real financial state of this country. As you well know but won't admit, it was borrowing which made the economy look like it was in constant boom for the years Flash was at the treasury. The trouble is, we just can't live for ever on that borrowing because it will have to stop, or it will be stopped as Callaghan found out.
The next question is, how is the country going to keep from going bankrupt and pay back just the interest on the borrowed money let alone anything else? Where has our manufacturing industry and ability to export gone?
Les
11 June 2009, 12:24 PM
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I'm seeing a lot of houses for sale at the moment (probably prices way too high) that I actually think - "that's pretty good value" - not thought that for years!
£400k gets you a very decent pad down here now. Two years ago is got you a pretty poxy semi.
£400k gets you a very decent pad down here now. Two years ago is got you a pretty poxy semi.
11 June 2009, 01:17 PM
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11 June 2009, 01:20 PM
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They do look pretty reasonable now ..... £750,000 round here will now get a nice place with sunny countryside views - these were over £1million a couple of years ago. It is becoming tempting to attempt a move rather than buy an extra place on the coast.
11 June 2009, 01:26 PM
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Having said that, a few places round here are still rather pricey...
Lillicrap Chilcott Estate Agents are independent estate agents in Cornwall UK and specialise in uk property sale, estate agents uk, estate agents cornwall uk, waterfront and country homes, property for sale uk, estate agents England, houses for sale,
Lillicrap Chilcott Estate Agents are independent estate agents in Cornwall UK and specialise in uk property sale, estate agents uk, estate agents cornwall uk, waterfront and country homes, property for sale uk, estate agents England, houses for sale,
11 June 2009, 01:39 PM
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They are very odd - dealt with them twice and they have been DIRE yet seem to somehow do well. Not met one person who has found them any good.
They lie, cheat and BS much more than any estate agents I know.
We viewed a property once - the guy was 3/4 of an hour late and made up an excuse we know was BS - not even an apology - it was as if it was our fault.
We also looked at an office to buy - made an offer. Suddenly a higher offer was made (above asking price). We withdrew and then got that phonecall "oh the previous buyer has pulled out" - total and utter BS in the extreme.
Rant over...
They lie, cheat and BS much more than any estate agents I know.
We viewed a property once - the guy was 3/4 of an hour late and made up an excuse we know was BS - not even an apology - it was as if it was our fault.
We also looked at an office to buy - made an offer. Suddenly a higher offer was made (above asking price). We withdrew and then got that phonecall "oh the previous buyer has pulled out" - total and utter BS in the extreme.
Rant over...
11 June 2009, 02:12 PM
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I just wonder what exactly is forming the basis of our new found optimism ,
Presumably weve tapped into new markets/buisness from around the globe ( maybe someone could enlighten me)
..or is it little more than the money we are lending ourselves thats bouying things up
Presumably weve tapped into new markets/buisness from around the globe ( maybe someone could enlighten me)
..or is it little more than the money we are lending ourselves thats bouying things up