House Prices, again ....
12 March 2008, 02:06 PM
#1
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House Prices, again ....
According to the latest report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), house prices dropped for the seventh month in a row, with 64.1% more surveyors reporting a fall rather than a rise in prices in February.
This has led to more than half a year of house price downturn, with the report teetering close to its historical low of June 1990 when 64.5% more surveyors reported a fall, rather than a rise in prices.
Stocks of unsold property jumped by more than 8.5%, the fifth consecutive monthly increase of more than 8%. The level of unsold homes has now risen by 48.6% over the past 12 months, which is the steepest rise in unsold property since 1989.
I can remember what it was like trying to sell a house in 1989-1994 ... if we are anywhere near that market it's going to be pretty rough for prices in the next couple of years.
This has led to more than half a year of house price downturn, with the report teetering close to its historical low of June 1990 when 64.5% more surveyors reported a fall, rather than a rise in prices.
Stocks of unsold property jumped by more than 8.5%, the fifth consecutive monthly increase of more than 8%. The level of unsold homes has now risen by 48.6% over the past 12 months, which is the steepest rise in unsold property since 1989.
I can remember what it was like trying to sell a house in 1989-1994 ... if we are anywhere near that market it's going to be pretty rough for prices in the next couple of years.
12 March 2008, 03:45 PM
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"64.1% more"
"64.5% more"
more than what? If it's a low amount that were already reporting a fall, ie 2%, then that's 64% more of 2% so 3.3%. Means nothing quoting percentages if you aren't giving base figure values.
"64.5% more"
more than what? If it's a low amount that were already reporting a fall, ie 2%, then that's 64% more of 2% so 3.3%. Means nothing quoting percentages if you aren't giving base figure values.
12 March 2008, 04:20 PM
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LOL
RICS have released figures showing the exact opposite for Scotland
And yet Lloyds quote "uk house prices falling"
Worry about your own house Pete, and leave speculation to the speculators.
RICS have released figures showing the exact opposite for Scotland
And yet Lloyds quote "uk house prices falling"
Worry about your own house Pete, and leave speculation to the speculators.
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12 March 2008, 05:22 PM
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and on another note rents on BTL properties have increased. At the annual review 3/4 of the properties owned by people who are close to me have increased by 10%. That is on properties based from the midlands to central scotland.
It is all just swings are roundabouts. As prices soften (not crash), people don't want to buy, therefore rents are good. When people start buying, rents ease, but you get capital growth.
So for the individual it does not really matter. The sooner you buy the sooner you stop paying rent and get on the housing ladder. There have been historical exceptions, but changes to the products that are available, and also rules and regulations make historical comparisons meaningless.
The most notable example being that no longer are banks who repossess properties able to sell the property off without paying attention to properties value. Back in the last crash, lenders could sell a property with only a view to realising the value of the debt owed to them. This meant they could go for next to nothing, which in turn made the prices of all the houses around them fall. There were a lot of cheeky deals done back then that made a few people very rich, but left many others in poverty. Rules were changed to stop this.
It is all just swings are roundabouts. As prices soften (not crash), people don't want to buy, therefore rents are good. When people start buying, rents ease, but you get capital growth.
So for the individual it does not really matter. The sooner you buy the sooner you stop paying rent and get on the housing ladder. There have been historical exceptions, but changes to the products that are available, and also rules and regulations make historical comparisons meaningless.
The most notable example being that no longer are banks who repossess properties able to sell the property off without paying attention to properties value. Back in the last crash, lenders could sell a property with only a view to realising the value of the debt owed to them. This meant they could go for next to nothing, which in turn made the prices of all the houses around them fall. There were a lot of cheeky deals done back then that made a few people very rich, but left many others in poverty. Rules were changed to stop this.
Last edited by Luminous; 12 March 2008 at 05:27 PM.
12 March 2008, 05:24 PM
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12 March 2008, 05:29 PM
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They've sold 2 in just shy of 12 months.
12 March 2008, 05:43 PM
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Seems to have frozen a bit where I live. It did go silly right after I bought my place though - so I was lucky.
Place up the road has had £20k knocked off it but still remains empty. It is right next to an electrcity sub-station though, and was £50k overpriced IMO in the 1st place.
Place up the road has had £20k knocked off it but still remains empty. It is right next to an electrcity sub-station though, and was £50k overpriced IMO in the 1st place.
12 March 2008, 06:20 PM
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According to the latest report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), house prices dropped for the seventh month in a row, with 64.1% more surveyors reporting a fall rather than a rise in prices in February.
This has led to more than half a year of house price downturn, with the report teetering close to its historical low of June 1990 when 64.5% more surveyors reported a fall, rather than a rise in prices.
Stocks of unsold property jumped by more than 8.5%, the fifth consecutive monthly increase of more than 8%. The level of unsold homes has now risen by 48.6% over the past 12 months, which is the steepest rise in unsold property since 1989.
I can remember what it was like trying to sell a house in 1989-1994 ... if we are anywhere near that market it's going to be pretty rough for prices in the next couple of years.
This has led to more than half a year of house price downturn, with the report teetering close to its historical low of June 1990 when 64.5% more surveyors reported a fall, rather than a rise in prices.
Stocks of unsold property jumped by more than 8.5%, the fifth consecutive monthly increase of more than 8%. The level of unsold homes has now risen by 48.6% over the past 12 months, which is the steepest rise in unsold property since 1989.
I can remember what it was like trying to sell a house in 1989-1994 ... if we are anywhere near that market it's going to be pretty rough for prices in the next couple of years.
How long do we have to wait until your next housing market is screwed post Pete, month, 3 months, 6 months..... sweepstake anyone
12 March 2008, 06:24 PM
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To put it all in perspective, I bought my house for £184k in 2003, it is now worth £315k 5 years later.
When I bought my house in 2003 all the headlines were that the bubble was about to burst and I was sh*tting myself thinking I was going to lose a fortune!
When I bought my house in 2003 all the headlines were that the bubble was about to burst and I was sh*tting myself thinking I was going to lose a fortune!
12 March 2008, 06:33 PM
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It's only those with a big buy to let portfolio that stand to lose out, stuff 'em just like any other investment there is an element of risk involved.
12 March 2008, 06:40 PM
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Exactly, I don't know why people are so hung up over whether they go up or down, if my house drops back to £184k, the house I buy next will fall by the same amount, so I'm no better or worse off.
The exceptions are first time buyers, or investors, or people who can sell and not have to buy another house for some reason.
The exceptions are first time buyers, or investors, or people who can sell and not have to buy another house for some reason.
12 March 2008, 07:59 PM
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New houses round here are still selling, but second hand houses are definitely sticking on the market for ages. I'm glad I'm not intending to sell anytime soon.
12 March 2008, 08:06 PM
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12 March 2008, 08:12 PM
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Prices seem to be static here. The same houses are still on the market after a year. Only the best, newish houses seem to sell at all.
I can't say if there will be a crash, but if no-one can sell at the current values then there will be a very long wait, or some silly offers accepted.
For now, people seem to be waiting in hope.
I can't say if there will be a crash, but if no-one can sell at the current values then there will be a very long wait, or some silly offers accepted.
For now, people seem to be waiting in hope.
12 March 2008, 08:22 PM
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Houses round here are sitting around and have been for 18months, the very same houses!
Scotland is indeed an exception.
If no-one buys then prices need to drop or they won't sell ....
Scotland is indeed an exception.
If no-one buys then prices need to drop or they won't sell ....
12 March 2008, 08:27 PM
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My neighbour is a dreaded estate agent in Herts. He's struggling a bit and thinks prices will dip 5% over the next 6 months, but only because the rise last was silly.
No major dramas in his view, and houses are still shifting - just not at the inflated levels they were a year ago.
No major dramas in his view, and houses are still shifting - just not at the inflated levels they were a year ago.
12 March 2008, 09:24 PM
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Things are lingering in Scotland too - at least in our area which grew spectacularly a few years ago, maybe other areas are catching up.
It is still far cheaper to rent than buy - so that is what we're doing again when we move this summer.
£800 rent a month with no buildings insurance, no maintenance, no depreciation, gardener included or £400k to buy something similar. Even if house prices simply stagnate, it saves me £1500 a month by renting.
When rents go up or house prices go down so they meet I'll consider buying back in again. Meantime I'm laughing, having sold out of this ridiculous bubble.
It is still far cheaper to rent than buy - so that is what we're doing again when we move this summer.
£800 rent a month with no buildings insurance, no maintenance, no depreciation, gardener included or £400k to buy something similar. Even if house prices simply stagnate, it saves me £1500 a month by renting.
When rents go up or house prices go down so they meet I'll consider buying back in again. Meantime I'm laughing, having sold out of this ridiculous bubble.
Last edited by john banks; 12 March 2008 at 09:26 PM.
12 March 2008, 09:43 PM
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Depends where you live re rent/mortgage, and when you bought, of course.
The house next door has just been rented out at £1450 per month. I bought this house in Nov 05 on a fixed rate mortgage, with repayments at £833.
Plus, next door is a your usual **** tip rental. Done up a bit it would command nearer £2k per month.
The house next door has just been rented out at £1450 per month. I bought this house in Nov 05 on a fixed rate mortgage, with repayments at £833.
Plus, next door is a your usual **** tip rental. Done up a bit it would command nearer £2k per month.
13 March 2008, 09:37 AM
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As has been pointed out before, your house isnt really worth anything until you die, and then your kids get all the money anyway and spunk it on fast cars and holidays.
As you ( nearly ) always need to buy another house if you sell yours, and in most peoples cases it will be a more expensive one, then any gains made on yours are wiped out by the extra amount the other house has gone up - in fact you end up worse off if both houses have risen by the same percentage.
Personally dont give a stuff what my house is worth as long as I can keep paying the mortgage - not planning on selling it any time in the near future so its irrelevant.
As you ( nearly ) always need to buy another house if you sell yours, and in most peoples cases it will be a more expensive one, then any gains made on yours are wiped out by the extra amount the other house has gone up - in fact you end up worse off if both houses have risen by the same percentage.
Personally dont give a stuff what my house is worth as long as I can keep paying the mortgage - not planning on selling it any time in the near future so its irrelevant.
13 March 2008, 11:08 AM
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Yup, by and large, you will have a far better level of property by renting than you will buying for the same money. It's definitely a renters market at the moment.
13 March 2008, 02:17 PM
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Not another HPC thread! 
I think by now its clear to all whats happening with the market - anyone expecting anything other than continued sharp falls over the coming year will be in for a surprise, but I expect that doesn't leave many now (maybe just Tx ).
There is potentially much worse in the pipeline regarding the economic situation than just being concerned about house prices however..
I think by now its clear to all whats happening with the market - anyone expecting anything other than continued sharp falls over the coming year will be in for a surprise, but I expect that doesn't leave many now (maybe just Tx
).There is potentially much worse in the pipeline regarding the economic situation than just being concerned about house prices however..