pslewis

Figures from the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) suggested that the slowdown in house prices was on course to be the most severe in at least a decade, as would-be buyers take fright at a declining market.

The number of mortgages approved in October for home purchases by the BBA dropped by 17 per cent over the month to only 44,105, the lowest figure since the body began to compile figures in September 1997.

Approvals were 37 per cent lower than a year ago.

It's started ...... the last drop lasted for 4 years, not sure how long this one will last or how big the drops will be.

stilover

Shame the developers round here won't budge on price, even though they are struggling to sell them.

Luminous

iTrader: (3)

Its the right time of year to be cheeky with your offers too.

jjones

3 years on the current mortgage so if thats the case will be in an excellent position to buy a few bargain "buy to lets", lets hope for a big crash

lankypicker

this is why prices wont crash. Each year for the past four/five years, there has been a slight re-adjustment in prices, the investors come out in force and fuel demand which keeps the prices steady.

i think next year will be interesting as less properties are going to be coming on the market due HIP's, this should also hold prices up.

there is no way prices will crash

Luminous

iTrader: (3)

agreed, but you have to also remember this is a lewis thread that will be rolled out for many pages. Sensible market analysis should be left at the door

unclebuck

wise words....

Petem95

I expect prices to fall quite significantly, but over a good few years.

Borrowing money is clearly going to get much harder, so despite lower prices it might actually still be very hard to buy a house as getting the mortgage will be so difficult!

The only winners are the ones with large amounts of cash in the bank, and who already own a house to live in (ie dont need to blow money on rent)

Other housing markets are falling quite sharply now - prices in US down something like 4.5% in one quarter, so over a year and adjusted for inflation thats a BIG fall!

Japan is only just about starting to recover from their massive crash in prices, and this is market where there is a genuine supply/demand issue.

Luminous

iTrader: (3)

there is a lot of money to be made lending money to people, just so long as you lend to people who can pay back. The more stringent your lending criteria, the less money you potentially make. Loosen up too much and you do a Northern Rock.

I don't see mortgages being too much harder to get in the long term. There will just be a little less reckless lending.

Terminator X

iTrader: (7)

Agreed. Simple demand vs supply. Nobody can build em quick enough ...

TX.

fast bloke

Loads of bollox on here, mostly

lozgti

Why is the government pressing on with HIPS when it seems it annoys:

Buyers,sellers,solicitors,estate agents,lenders...

in fact it seems like one of the worst ideas in living memory and being pushed at a time when perhaps the market could do without it?

Anyway,I'm more interested in seeing how all these people coming to the of Fixed rates get on.Reality is most mortgages now are about 7.5%-8%.Double what they used to be not so long ago

fitzscoob

This is quite a problem for me at the moment.

Sold my house with my ex early this month, have banked a nice little lump sum (for me) bearing in mind we only had the house for 18 months.

I now look at the market and figure I could go and buy a 1 bed flat for 150k, or do I hold on? Maybe go rent for a year?

The reality is that if I wait for another year and prices increase - I wont be able to get back on the bottom rung on my own.

It is a difficult decision to make, at the end of the day we all need a roof over our heads.

Honestly, I have no idea which way to progress this.

I am looking at a flat on Friday...

pslewis

Well, unlike the times before ...... 'everyone' agrees that the market is going to fall.

I certainly would not buy at this moment ... certainly not a 1 Bed anything!!!

In a downturn the 1 Beds are hit the hardest and suffer the biggest falls - if you must buy, buy a 2 Bed something - they hold up much better! Think about it, house prices fall, people buy what they can afford and after the drops they can afford more than 1 Bedroom properties so miss them out.

If anyone has money in a 1 Bed I would absolutely sell now.

Iwan

House prices slide by 0.8% last month, say the Nationwide.

BBC NEWS | Business | UK house prices see sharp tumble

Funny how a few years back it was just the odd person predicting doom, and everyone else was saying 'it's different this time, prices will keep going up'.

But now pretty much everyone is predicting a downturn, the only argument now is over how bad it's going to be.

Of course there are still a few with their rose tinted spectacles on, probably everyone who 'released the capital in their home' and used the money to buy BMW X5's and giant plasma TVs.

EddScott

I've been thinking of running a thread similar to this. Would you sell now on the basis that house prices are going to fall sharply next year. We have £75K mortgage on a £150K house. Coming out should give us a clear £70K.

Rent a home and if I'm right, houses prices fall and we go back into property at the right time and get a nice big house that in the current market we'd have no hope of owning.

However, there is also the possibility that although prices may stagnate theres a high possibility that interest rates may actually come down a little next year (can't remember why but the reasoning is sound) and things may remain quite static. So on this basis, we could end up renting for up to 2 years, my family goes through quite an upheaval moving about and we throw up to £12K away in rent and still be no better off than we are now. PLUS knowing the way the wife spends the £70K will be 70p in 2 years

The Snug Rhino

An asteroid will hit the earth today.


(you may laugh but if i do this post 15 gillion times i'll be right one day ...... the we'll see who's smirking! )

EddScott

We won't because we'll have had our eyes burnt out and won't see anything.

davegtt

Thing is Im not expecting a crash, maybe a very slight drop as house sales slow down but for the next year certainly, maybe 2 or 3 I just see a stagnated market although in the same breath I certainly wouldnt buy at this particular time.

davegtt

So your just copying PSL then

lozgti

It would certainly eliminate the poor supply and demand argument

Brendan Hughes

Terminator X

iTrader: (7)

There is a big difference between a "downturn" & a "crash". Which one do you think it will be? IMHO no crash. Perhaps prices will increase at a smaller rate or remain as they are for a while. Crash? No way!

Plenty on here have been predicting a crash for 5 years or more As post above - if you predict a crash every day for your entire life, chances are you will get it right eventually!

I even "bet" with the doom sayers a while back re revisiting posts such as this in 2008 to see whether they get it right this time ...

TX.

f1_fan

iTrader: (9)

Yes looking forward to the day they do actually drop and the likes of petem95 telling us how they were right all along

Matteeboy

There will be a hell of a crash.
I guarantee it.


You house price people were denying any drop in house prices. Now they are dropping it's a case of "they'll only drop a bit"
Cue the next stage and next bit of denial.

Just wait until thousands have to renogotiate fixed rate mortgages, leaving a huge number unable to afford to pay any more.

As an example - Yes it's NR, but you get the idea...

The Guardian's analysis of £58bn or 75% of Northern Rock's residential mortgage portfolio reveals the extent of exposure and suggests the company is suffering from rising arrears and repossessions.

Among the findings are:

· Mortgage loans of over 90% of the purchase price of a house have soared to £16bn, from £2.7bn, in the space of three years.

· Loans have exceeded the value of the property on nearly 2,500 mortgages, with a value of £263m. Three years ago, the figure was just £13m on 158 properties.

· 10,000 Northern Rock customers are a month or more in arrears on their mortgages, on loans worth nearly £1.2bn. At the end of 2003, there were only 2,500 in the same difficulties, with mortgages worth £168.8m.

· In 2003 Northern Rock repossessed 80 properties. Last year more than 1,000 properties were repossessed. By the end of September this year 912 properties had already been repossessed.

Mitchy260

There's also a difference as to where you live in the country.

London, the south east and west may see a stagnation or a drop.

Doesn't mean the rest of the UK will though as prices up north are still reasonably affordable. You can easily get a 4 bed detached for £200-220k up here.

That's the equivelant of a 1bed flat in London is it not

Best place to buy at moment is Scotland

House prices wont crash IMO, as soon as they become ''affordable'' the professional generation that are still living with parents in late 20's, early 30's range will flood the market and push prices back up.

Matteeboy

But actual prices being fetched are MUCH lower than the prices places are being advertised at.
The "real" market has already dropped significantly.

Mitchy260

That's because estate agent valuations sometimes give the wrong impression to the seller.

A few days ago, i was watching a property development programme, 3 valuations.

1...£800k
2...£900k

The 3rd a whopping £1.1m

The idiots stuck it on the market for £1.3m, some £500k more than valuer 1.

If its advertised for 1.3m and only sells for 900k (as valuer 2 says) then is that classed as a drop or a stupid f*ckwit of a seller aiming far too high.

Matteeboy

I've done this one to death.
Let's just see what happens.

Iwan

I have no idea why people predict a crash, there's no historical precident for it at all.