Holy Ghost

please poll and discuss at your leisure

Flatcapdriver

I can't see Israel either being allowed to attack Iranian installations (by the US) nor can I see them having the guts for an all out confrontation with the whole Arab world which would be the end result if they did. As much as I dislike the new Iranian regime, there does need to be a counter point in the region (assuming Iran develops nuclear weapons) to the self centred ambitions of the Western powers which together with Muslim extremists have the potential to ignite WWIII.

Holy Ghost

perhaps iranian nuclear power adminstered under the exclusive control of the IAEA?

Reality

Well If the Iranians want Nuclear weapons so much I think the Americans will probably send them a couple

Flatcapdriver

Why should the Iranians be subjected to outside administration when other countries aren't subject to this system. I'm thinking about Israel here.

Chip

Well why shouldnt they. And just what gives the mighty USA the right to dictate to other countries what they can and can't have.

Chip

Reality

Cos they're in Charge at the moment !

Chip

Exactly! Bloody frightening isn't it.


Chip

Luminous

iTrader: (3)

I really doubt that they would attack the installations. Unless there has been some advance in weaponry that I am unaware of, making a nuclear power plant go bang is a REALLY bad idea.

Could understand them bombing the construction sites of new ones before they got turned on though...

Reality

I try not to think about it too much

Holy Ghost

**

i'd say because israel's a democracy (for better, for worse it's the only established and stable one in the region - the only other being iraq). as such it has greater embedded public safeguards over the development, management and deployment of nuclear power and nuclear weapons. it's a westernised culture, with western alliances and it serves european and american interests that they are a nuclear state - ie that israel survives. neither the egyptians or the syrians have attempted to invade israel since it became a nuclear power in the 70s. plus they are distinct from persian or arab governments which are broadly anti-semitic, non-democratic and/or authoritarian theocracies, some of whom would rather see israel cease to exist.

the question being: in the current political environment, would you trust a known authoritarian state-sponsor of terrorism (by our definition) that is virulently anti-western (by any definition) and anti-semitic (again by any definition) to have its own nuclear power programme - the long-term consequences of which are likely to be the covert development of nuclear weaponry in either fission or 'dirty' guises?

i think the practical and realistic - western realpolitik - answer is "no" - but if the iranians are serious about nuclear power as a partial alternative to oil, then they may have to bite a tough IAEA bullet on who controls the reactors and their by-products ... because beneath our diplomatic rhetoric and the deliberately inflammatory iranian posturing there is little or no trust between the two sides.

personally, i wouldn't let them have it in a century of sundays.

just some observations ...

Holy Ghost

*

the israelis knocked over saddam's ozirak 1 & 2 reactors in 78 i think - as you say, under construction.

Flatcapdriver

I have a different perspective in that I sincerely don't trust Israeli foreign policy, particularly when its directed towards Arab nations and regardless of the level of western support its only the threat of support being withdrawn (by the US) which keeps Israel under control.

I'd prefer to see a balance of power whether it be having two super powers or the case of North Korea which has nuclear weapons and despite a crank pot regime has yet to use those weapons offensively - strangely the US has not invaded North Korea as yet - I wonder why?

The IAEA can be dispensed with quite easily even with inspectors constantly overseeing the construction and implementation of nuclear installations. You only have to look at North Korea to see how the tails wags the dog and in country inspectors comes remarkably close to the Iraq situation a few years ago and look what happened there.

Holy Ghost

**

fair point. i'd agree that where things are today are a long long way from a workable state - two-way entrenchment between the west and the middle east has resulted in the total eradication of trust that is, arguably, unrecoverable. at least in anything but the longest term.

but this all this has created the most difficult of conundrums - and one where governments usually slip back into self-interest.

or to put it another way from our perspective, how to avoid the possibility in 20 years time of finding oneself travelling on the district line in the company of a 10KT briefcase nuke.

Brendan Hughes

Do you know how f**king busy I am, Hans Brix?

pslewis

They can have Nuclear Power ....... no problem, we will even supply the fuel!!

Non-Weapon grade fuel that is!!!

However, they wish to make their own fuel ..... and therein lies the problem, see??

Why would an oil rich nation, like Iran, wish to pump $millions into building Nuclear plants to generate electricity --- as they claim??

So, NO!! They will NOT have the capability to make Nuclear Warheads!

Pete

CrisPDuk

Iran is a stable democracy, it's just that as a result of the United States' incitement and sponsorship of Saddam Hussein's Iraq during the bitter and prolonged war, the majority of the population choose to vociferously (and some would say justifiably) disagree with American control of, and interference in, affairs in their region.

PS: On a pedantic note, the population of Iran are NOT of arabic descent, they come from the same gene pool as the Spanish and the Italians.

brezhnev

No they're not I'm afraid. The Spanish are of mixed Latin/Visigothic descent (the latter as a result of the fifth century invasion of Iberia) with a little Moorish mixing in the south. The Italians are of mixed Latin/Greek origin. The Iranians are ethnically Persian, with some blood ties to the Kurdish and Armenian peoples.

King RA

Good points Holy Ghost, nice to read some educated conversation on scoobynet for a change.