hedgehog

There is a possibility of a display tonight but if it happens at all it is likely to be confined to the far north of the UK. Those interested can watch what is going on out there here:

http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/auro...h/rt_activity/

You may also watch here for the Kp value. As a very rough guide the very north of the UK, basically Shetland, needs a Kp of about 3 for a display, Most of Scotland needs a Kp of about 5, with northern and central England needing about 7 and they very far south needing a 9 to get a display going:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

You can also watch satellite imaging of the likely position of the aurora here:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/index.html

As these can be retrospective by some hours the magnatometer at York (the top link) is still well worth watching as any sharp rise or fall can provoke a short lived display that might be missed by the others, or be over by the time you find out about it.

I hope this comes good for those people wanting to see the Northern Lights for the first time. Sorry that so many of these "heads up" posts will result in many seeing nothing but this is very much an attempt to predict the unpredictable and so it is a percentage thing. The experts put our percentage chances tonight at about 10%.

hedgehog

As some may have noticed the CME that was incoming had no effect at all upon the earth and so caused no northern lights. I think many are wondering where it all went to!

The face of the sun is now devoid of sunspots and so the chances of any significant activity within the next week are pretty low. The solar minimum will probably occur next year so we should expect long periods of very little activity for the next few years.